Economy
Total Nigeria: Whistle Blowing on Solid First Quarter
By ARM Securities
In keeping with the rave in town, we beam our equity strategy searchlight on a leading Oil Marketing Company (OMC), Total Nigeria Plc. (Total), which is scheduled to report 1st quarter earnings in the last week of April.
Despite its striking FY 16 earnings, which was almost four-fold higher YoY with EPS at N43.58, Total’s share price has declined 9.7% YTD (post result release: – 3.7%)—underperforming the broader NSEASI.
In our view, the weak appetite for the stock was underpinned by the company’s disappointing final dividend announcement of only N7.00 which brought total DPS to N17.00, with the implied pay-out ratio of 39% well behind its average of 84% over the last decade.
That said, the stock is typically prone to big moves after earnings releases and can easily gap up if the numbers are as strong as expected.
For full-year ended 2016, revenue grew 39.9% YoY to N290.9billion, largely reflecting a 38% YoY increase in petrol sales. The jump in PMS turnover reflects higher prices (+42% YoY to an average of N123/litre) which neutered volume weakness. Elsewhere, sales of lubricants climbed 53% YoY as the company raised lubes prices even as NGN depreciation at the parallel market pulled back importation of lubes to create scope for market share expansion for domestic players.
Consequently, gross profit was 94% higher relative to prior year with corresponding margin jumping to a decade high of 16.9% (+4.7pps YoY).
The foregoing combined with efficient cost control (OPEX: +1.3% YoY) to drive a four-fold YoY expansion in earnings.
Total reported its highest gross margin on record of 24.2% (+12.2pps QoQ) in Q4 16 in line with those of its close rival (Forte Oil Plc).
In our view, the upsurge reflects price increases in lubes and deregulated product segments (LPG, AGO, DPK) which more than offset weaker petrol sales.
Irrespective, N9 billion in other expenses mainly due to N7.4billion in foreign exchange loss1 moderated the impact of its record gross margin to leave EPS at N9.32 (+17.3% QoQ and +147.9% YoY). Barring the impact of the FX loss, Q4 16 EPS would have printed at N36.00 (FY 16: +489.4% YoY to N70.26).
For Q1 17, we expect petrol volumes to head further south owing to higher prices and supply constraints.
Specifically, we forecast a 10% QoQ decline in petrol volumes to 373million litres. That said, as with Q4 16, higher prices across petrol (67% YoY to N145/litre), diesel (60% YoY to N234.5/litre), kerosene (40% YoY to N311.56/litre), and lubricants (+18% average) as well as resilient volumes in these segments (excluding petrol) guide our Q1 17E sales of N75.7billion (+27% YoY, +7% QoQ).
Consequently, our gross margin expectation for the quarter is 20.2% (+5.3pps YoY, -3.9pps QoQ).
Further down, the flat movement in the interbank market (N305/$) and appreciation at the parallel market (+20% to N390/$2), compared to prior quarter, should dispel foreign exchange losses in the period.
To be clear, we now see scope for FX gains on the Trade creditors line—pegged to the parallel market.
This possibility notwithstanding, we take the cautious approach of discounting potential currency induced gains. Irrespective, we expect strong underlying performance over Q1 17, with an EPS estimate of N17.04 (83% QoQ and 104% YoY) leaving prospect for an interim dividend payment.
Over FY 17, despite expected higher average petrol pump price of N145/litre (2016 average: N123/litre) as well hike in lubes prices, weaker petrol volumes should moderate total sales growth to 8.5% YoY (to N315.6billion).
On cost, notwithstanding recent NGN appreciation at the parallel market which should ordinarily moderate input cost, our average crude oil price (22% YoY to $55/bbl.) and NGN forecasts (18% to N360/$) should leave COGS at elevated levels.
Consequently, gross margin should come in 20bps lower YoY at 16.7%. Furtherdown, amidst the still elevated payables, second order impact of weaker naira underpins our expectation for FX loss of N6.4bilion over 2017.
The foregoing should combine with higher net finance charges (+24% YoY to N717million), reflecting absence of payment of accrued interest on delayed subsidy, to drive our FY 17 EPS to N39.8 (-9% YoY) with total dividend at N19.88 (50% pay-out).
Total has had a good run over the last one year and currently trades at a P/E of 6.2x relative to 12.9x for peers. Net adjustments to our models drive our FVE 8% higher to N384.72, which implies a 43% upside from last closing price. We retain a BUY rating on the stock.
Source: www.armsecurities.com.ng.
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Economy
Nigerian Bourse Begins Week With Marginal 0.01% Loss
By Dipo Olowookere
It was bearish start of the week for the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited after it printed a marginal 0.01 per cent loss on Monday due to mild profit-taking.
It was observed that the 0.47 per cent decline recorded by the consumer goods index and the 0.06 per cent shrink posted by the insurance counter crumbled the Nigerian bourse during the session, as they overpowered the gains achieved by the other key sectors of Customs Street.
The banking space grew by 0.28 per cent, and the energy industry expanded by 0.06 per cent, while the commodity and the industrial goods indices closed flat.
At the close of business, the All-Share Index (ASI) decreased by 17.00 points to 166,112.50 points from last Friday’s 166,129.50 points and the market capitalisation contracted by N11 billion to N106.343 trillion from the previous session’s N106.354 trillion.
Industrial and Medical Gases gave up 9.95 per cent to sell for N34.85, Haldane McCall lost 9.88 per cent to close at N3.83, LivingTrust Mortgage Bank depreciated by 9.57 per cent to N4.44, Ikeja Hotel slipped by 7.28 per cent to N32.50, and Union Dicon dipped by 5.26 per cent to N9.00.
Conversely, Learn Africa gained 10.00 per cent to sell for N7.15, Champion Breweries appreciated by 10.00 per cent close at N19.25, NCR Nigeria also grew by 10.00 per cent to N141.40, Trippe G jumped by 9.94 per cent to N5.86, and Neimeth soared by 9.90 per cent to N11.10.
Business Post reports that 45 stocks ended on the gainers’ log during the session and 24 stocks finished on the losers’ chart, representing a positive market breadth index and strong investor sentiment.
Traders bought and sold 629.6 million shares worth N14.8 billion in 57,858 deals on Monday versus the 539.9 million shares valued at N16.7 billion transacted in 48,023 deals last Friday, showing a moderation in the value of trades by 11.38 per cent, and a spike in the volume of trades and the number of deals by 16.61 per cent and 20.48 per cent apiece.
Secure Electronic Technology led the activity log with 83.3 million equities valued at N98.2 million, Access Holdings traded 52.9 million units worth N1.2 billion, Jaiz Bank exchanged 39.7 million units for N339.1 million, Tantalizers sold 34.2 million units valued at N103.1 million, and Fidelity Bank transacted 23.7 million units worth N473.5 million.
Economy
Oil Market Steadies as Iran Supply Fears Ease
By Adedapo Adesanya
The oil market steadied on Monday as civil unrest in Iran subsided, reducing the likelihood of a US attack that could disrupt supplies.
Brent crude was up by 4 cent or 0.02 per cent to $64.14 a barrel while the US West Texas Intermediate traded at $59.44 a barrel due to a US federal holiday in honour of Martin Luther King Jr.
Pressure eased from last week’s highs over Iran tensions and its handling of the protests started to ease and US President Donald Trump appeared to back off from a strike on Iran, for now.
Officials say over 5,000 people have been killed in the protest which was sparked by economic conditions and graduated to call for a regime change in the country which is a member of the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).
Meanwhile, President Trump stirred a commotion in another part of the world after saying the US would slap tariffs on its European and NATO allies Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, the United Kingdom, The Netherlands, and Finland, for supporting Greenland’s status as an autonomous Danish territory.
The return of the US-EU tariff row, now over Trump’s obsession to take over Greenland, threatens to return the cross-Atlantic trade row as European leaders have suggested the EU could pull out of the trade deal with the US.
The European leaders will convene in Brussels, Belgium, on Thursday for an emergency summit.
Following renewed threats from the US against Greenland, gold and silver prices jumped on Monday, while European equities fell. However, as Greenland does not produce oil, market analysts noted that there is no direct connection for crude markets.
Also, the Dollar eased against the safe-haven Yen and Swiss Franc on Monday on concerns about the possible trade war between the US and Europe.
The market was also looking at the risk of damage to Russian infrastructure and distillate supplies at a time when colder weather is forecast to cross North America and Europe, adding to market unease.
Economy
Sanwo-Olu Signs 2026 Lagos Budget of N4.45trn into Law
By Modupe Gbadeyanka
The Governor of Lagos State, Mr Babajide Sanwo-Olu, on Monday signed the 2026 appropriation bill of N4.45 trillion into law.
At the signing ceremony in Alausa, Ikeja in the presence of his deputy, Mr Femi Hamzat, the Governor thanked the Lagos State House of Assembly, led by the Speaker, Mr Mudashiru Obasa, for passing the 2026 budget christened Budget of Shared Prosperity.
He said though the appropriation bill was increased from N4.2 trillion to N4.45 trillion, this only showed the independence of the parliament, promising that the executive arm of government will accountably implement the bill.
“On behalf of the people and the government of Lagos State, let me thank the House of Assembly. This is a budget that you have had your full input into, you have scrutinized, you have dissected, and you have taken your time to do the very constitutional provision, which is enshrined in our constitution. I want to thank you for the work you have done.
“You will notice that there is a slight increase from what we put forward, but that goes to show that the independence that you have, and the fact that you believe that Lagosians actually also deserve more, and the fact that you believe that we also can do more. So we’re excited and we’re happy with the way that you have brought it forward here to us.
“For us in the executive, it is another opportunity for us to be able to work together. It is a budget of shared prosperity that has been properly christened, and sharing prosperity means that it’s an inclusive government, it’s a budget that must carry everybody along irrespective of what part of the state, what division in the state, what sector you are from you must feel governance, you must feel the essence of why we’re in government in one form or the other,” Mr Sanwo-Olu said.
The Speaker, represented by the Majority leader of the Lagos Assembly, Mr Noheem Adams, praised the Governor for his people-oriented policies.
Business Post recalls that on November 25, 2025, Mr Sanwo-Olu presented a proposed to spend N4.237 trillion this year, higher than the N3.366 trillion approved for 2025.
But the lawmakers increased the budget to N4.445 trillion and passed it on January 8, 2026, and transmitted to the Governor for assent.
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