Economy
Total Nigeria: Whistle Blowing on Solid First Quarter
By ARM Securities
In keeping with the rave in town, we beam our equity strategy searchlight on a leading Oil Marketing Company (OMC), Total Nigeria Plc. (Total), which is scheduled to report 1st quarter earnings in the last week of April.
Despite its striking FY 16 earnings, which was almost four-fold higher YoY with EPS at N43.58, Total’s share price has declined 9.7% YTD (post result release: – 3.7%)—underperforming the broader NSEASI.
In our view, the weak appetite for the stock was underpinned by the company’s disappointing final dividend announcement of only N7.00 which brought total DPS to N17.00, with the implied pay-out ratio of 39% well behind its average of 84% over the last decade.
That said, the stock is typically prone to big moves after earnings releases and can easily gap up if the numbers are as strong as expected.
For full-year ended 2016, revenue grew 39.9% YoY to N290.9billion, largely reflecting a 38% YoY increase in petrol sales. The jump in PMS turnover reflects higher prices (+42% YoY to an average of N123/litre) which neutered volume weakness. Elsewhere, sales of lubricants climbed 53% YoY as the company raised lubes prices even as NGN depreciation at the parallel market pulled back importation of lubes to create scope for market share expansion for domestic players.
Consequently, gross profit was 94% higher relative to prior year with corresponding margin jumping to a decade high of 16.9% (+4.7pps YoY).
The foregoing combined with efficient cost control (OPEX: +1.3% YoY) to drive a four-fold YoY expansion in earnings.
Total reported its highest gross margin on record of 24.2% (+12.2pps QoQ) in Q4 16 in line with those of its close rival (Forte Oil Plc).
In our view, the upsurge reflects price increases in lubes and deregulated product segments (LPG, AGO, DPK) which more than offset weaker petrol sales.
Irrespective, N9 billion in other expenses mainly due to N7.4billion in foreign exchange loss1 moderated the impact of its record gross margin to leave EPS at N9.32 (+17.3% QoQ and +147.9% YoY). Barring the impact of the FX loss, Q4 16 EPS would have printed at N36.00 (FY 16: +489.4% YoY to N70.26).
For Q1 17, we expect petrol volumes to head further south owing to higher prices and supply constraints.
Specifically, we forecast a 10% QoQ decline in petrol volumes to 373million litres. That said, as with Q4 16, higher prices across petrol (67% YoY to N145/litre), diesel (60% YoY to N234.5/litre), kerosene (40% YoY to N311.56/litre), and lubricants (+18% average) as well as resilient volumes in these segments (excluding petrol) guide our Q1 17E sales of N75.7billion (+27% YoY, +7% QoQ).
Consequently, our gross margin expectation for the quarter is 20.2% (+5.3pps YoY, -3.9pps QoQ).
Further down, the flat movement in the interbank market (N305/$) and appreciation at the parallel market (+20% to N390/$2), compared to prior quarter, should dispel foreign exchange losses in the period.
To be clear, we now see scope for FX gains on the Trade creditors line—pegged to the parallel market.
This possibility notwithstanding, we take the cautious approach of discounting potential currency induced gains. Irrespective, we expect strong underlying performance over Q1 17, with an EPS estimate of N17.04 (83% QoQ and 104% YoY) leaving prospect for an interim dividend payment.
Over FY 17, despite expected higher average petrol pump price of N145/litre (2016 average: N123/litre) as well hike in lubes prices, weaker petrol volumes should moderate total sales growth to 8.5% YoY (to N315.6billion).
On cost, notwithstanding recent NGN appreciation at the parallel market which should ordinarily moderate input cost, our average crude oil price (22% YoY to $55/bbl.) and NGN forecasts (18% to N360/$) should leave COGS at elevated levels.
Consequently, gross margin should come in 20bps lower YoY at 16.7%. Furtherdown, amidst the still elevated payables, second order impact of weaker naira underpins our expectation for FX loss of N6.4bilion over 2017.
The foregoing should combine with higher net finance charges (+24% YoY to N717million), reflecting absence of payment of accrued interest on delayed subsidy, to drive our FY 17 EPS to N39.8 (-9% YoY) with total dividend at N19.88 (50% pay-out).
Total has had a good run over the last one year and currently trades at a P/E of 6.2x relative to 12.9x for peers. Net adjustments to our models drive our FVE 8% higher to N384.72, which implies a 43% upside from last closing price. We retain a BUY rating on the stock.
Source: www.armsecurities.com.ng.
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Economy
Customs Street Dips 0.57% as Equity Investors Book Profit
By Dipo Olowookere
The bears took control of Customs Street on Tuesday after equity investors embarked on profit-taking, resulting in the market closing lower by 0.57 per cent.
Sell-offs were witnessed in almost all the key sectors of the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited yesterday, as the only riser was the insurance index, which gained 0.04 per cent.
The industrial goods space shrank by 0.71 per cent, the banking counter depreciated by 0.48 per cent, the energy counter fell by 0.29 per cent, and the consumer goods sector also slipped by 0.29 per cent.
Consequently, the All-Share Index (ASI) moderated by 1,130.86 points to 196,066.11 points from 197,196.97 points, and the market capitalisation contracted by N726 billion to N125.858 trillion from N126.584 trillion.
Mutual Benefits lost 10.00 per cent to trade at N4.59, NASCON also gave up 10.00 per cent to sell for N147.60, Red Star Express dropped 9.94 per cent to N28.55, Austin Laz slumped 9.88 per cent to N3.74, and SCOA Nigeria depreciated by 9.85 per cent to N27.90.
On the flip side, Premier Paints gained 9.97 per cent to close at N17.65, Sunu Assurances appreciated by 9.95 per cent to N4.75, Conoil improved by 9.95 per cent to N204.40, DAAR Communications expanded by 9.84 per cent to N2.01, and Eterna grew by 9.56 per cent to N51.00.
Business Post observed that there was a stronger selling pressure yesterday after a fall in the global crude oil market. The bourse ended with 26 price gainers and 44 price losers, reflecting a negative market breadth index and weak investor sentiment.
A total of 746.9 million equities valued at N27.9 billion exchanged hands in 65,275 deals during the session versus the 762.5 million equities worth N31.2 billion traded in 86,488 deals in the preceding day, showing a decline in the trading volume, value and number of deals by 2.05 per cent, 10.58 per cent, and 24.53 per cent, respectively.
Leading the activity chart for the session was Access Holdings with 80.3 million shares valued at N2.0 billion, Mutual Benefits sold 52.7 million stocks worth N254.7 million, Fortis Global Insurance transacted 41.4 million equities for N57.7 million, Zenith Bank traded 35.4 million shares worth N3.3 billion, and Jaiz Bank exchanged 31.5 million stocks valued at N343.4 million.
Economy
Oil Slumps 11% as Trump Signals Resolution of Iran War
By Adedapo Adesanya
Oil plunged by more than 11 per cent on Tuesday after the market held onto comments by US President Donald Trump about a quick end to the war with Iran that has disrupted global crude flows.
Brent futures fell $11.16 or 11 per cent to $87.80 a barrel, and the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude settled at $83.45 a barrel, down $11.32 or 11.9 per cent. This was the steepest percentage drop of any session since 2022.
The American president, in an interview on Monday, said he thought the war against Iran was “very complete” and the US was “very far ahead” of his initial four- to five-week estimated time frame.
The market also followed US Energy Secretary Chris Wright, who wrote on X that the American military had facilitated a shipment of oil out of the Strait of Hormuz.
However, it was reported later that Iran has begun laying naval mines in the strategically vital strait, through which 20 per cent of crude flows pass.
Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), now sharing control of the strait with the regular navy, has a range of asymmetric capabilities, including scattered mine-laying craft, explosive-laden boats and shore-based missile batteries, giving it the ability to create a complex array of threats to passing vessels.
Disruptions in Hormuz have already had significant ripple effects as tanker traffic through the strait has plummeted with shipping companies avoiding the area and insurers hiking premiums amid risk, and analysts warn that prolonged disruption could trigger one of the largest energy shocks in decades.
It was also reported that President Trump was considering easing oil sanctions on Russia related to its war in Ukraine, and releasing emergency crude stockpiles to help curb spiking prices.
Market analysts noted that nearly 1.9 million barrels per day of crude refining capacity in the Gulf has been shut in due to the US-Israeli war on Iran.
Seeking to calm down soaring oil prices, G7 finance ministers have discussed a possible joint release of strategic petroleum reserves, up to potentially 400 million barrels. This will be facilitated by the International Energy Agency (IEA).
The American Petroleum Institute (API) estimated that crude oil inventories in the United States fell by 1.7 million barrels in the week ending March 6, after adding 5.6 million barrels in the week prior. Official data from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) will be released later on Wednesday.
Economy
NNPC Gets Approval for $20bn Final Investment Decision on Bonga Deepwater Project
By Modupe Gbadeyanka
A targeted fiscal incentive designed to unlock the long-awaited Final Investment Decision (FID) on the Bonga Southwest Aparo (BSWA) deepwater project has been approved by President Bola Tinubu.
The approval followed months of intensive technical and commercial negotiations involving the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) Limited as the concessionaire, the Nigeria Revenue Service (NRS), the Special Adviser to the President on Energy, Olu Verheijen, and the chief executive of Shell, Mr Wael Sawan.
In a statement signed on Tuesday by the Chief Corporate Communications Officer of NNPC, Mr Andy Odeh, it was disclosed that the project is estimated to attract about $20 billion in Foreign Direct Investment and position Nigeria for a new era of deepwater production.
It was said that it has the potential to attract strategic investments and accelerate sustainable economic growth, adding that it signals renewed confidence in Nigeria’s policy direction and its resolve to translate reform momentum into tangible investment outcomes.
The chief executive of NNPC, Mr Bashir Bayo Ojulari, said, “This approval is a testament to the President’s leadership, NNPC’s disciplined execution and our ability to structure complex, bankable transactions that deliver value for Nigeria.
“For nearly two decades, the Bonga Southwest project remained stalled. Today, under President Tinubu’s reform-driven leadership and through NNPC’s sustained advocacy, we have broken that logjam. This is what partnership, persistence, and policy clarity can achieve.”
“This milestone further affirms NNPC’s commitment, under the President’s leadership, to unlocking Nigeria’s vast energy potential through partnerships, disciplined innovation and execution excellence,” he further stated.
The Bonga Southwest project will be the first FID on a Nigeria deepwater Production Sharing Contract asset since 2008, re-establishing Nigeria as a premier deepwater investment destination.
The fiscal package approved by President Tinubu includes an enhanced Production Tax Credit and resolution of the 2021 dispute settlement agreement, creating a competitive framework that balances national value with investor returns.
The Bonga Southwest Aparo project, operated by Shell with all IOCs in Nigeria as partners, will create over 5,000 direct and indirect jobs, and deliver 150,000 barrels per day of crude oil and 140 million standard cubic feet per day of gas upon completion.
NNPC Limited, as concessionaire, worked closely with SNEPCo and the broader contractor party to develop alternative fiscal solutions that address structural constraints while protecting Nigeria’s long-term interests.
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