Economy
Total Nigeria: Whistle Blowing on Solid First Quarter
By ARM Securities
In keeping with the rave in town, we beam our equity strategy searchlight on a leading Oil Marketing Company (OMC), Total Nigeria Plc. (Total), which is scheduled to report 1st quarter earnings in the last week of April.
Despite its striking FY 16 earnings, which was almost four-fold higher YoY with EPS at N43.58, Total’s share price has declined 9.7% YTD (post result release: – 3.7%)—underperforming the broader NSEASI.
In our view, the weak appetite for the stock was underpinned by the company’s disappointing final dividend announcement of only N7.00 which brought total DPS to N17.00, with the implied pay-out ratio of 39% well behind its average of 84% over the last decade.
That said, the stock is typically prone to big moves after earnings releases and can easily gap up if the numbers are as strong as expected.
For full-year ended 2016, revenue grew 39.9% YoY to N290.9billion, largely reflecting a 38% YoY increase in petrol sales. The jump in PMS turnover reflects higher prices (+42% YoY to an average of N123/litre) which neutered volume weakness. Elsewhere, sales of lubricants climbed 53% YoY as the company raised lubes prices even as NGN depreciation at the parallel market pulled back importation of lubes to create scope for market share expansion for domestic players.
Consequently, gross profit was 94% higher relative to prior year with corresponding margin jumping to a decade high of 16.9% (+4.7pps YoY).
The foregoing combined with efficient cost control (OPEX: +1.3% YoY) to drive a four-fold YoY expansion in earnings.
Total reported its highest gross margin on record of 24.2% (+12.2pps QoQ) in Q4 16 in line with those of its close rival (Forte Oil Plc).
In our view, the upsurge reflects price increases in lubes and deregulated product segments (LPG, AGO, DPK) which more than offset weaker petrol sales.
Irrespective, N9 billion in other expenses mainly due to N7.4billion in foreign exchange loss1 moderated the impact of its record gross margin to leave EPS at N9.32 (+17.3% QoQ and +147.9% YoY). Barring the impact of the FX loss, Q4 16 EPS would have printed at N36.00 (FY 16: +489.4% YoY to N70.26).
For Q1 17, we expect petrol volumes to head further south owing to higher prices and supply constraints.
Specifically, we forecast a 10% QoQ decline in petrol volumes to 373million litres. That said, as with Q4 16, higher prices across petrol (67% YoY to N145/litre), diesel (60% YoY to N234.5/litre), kerosene (40% YoY to N311.56/litre), and lubricants (+18% average) as well as resilient volumes in these segments (excluding petrol) guide our Q1 17E sales of N75.7billion (+27% YoY, +7% QoQ).
Consequently, our gross margin expectation for the quarter is 20.2% (+5.3pps YoY, -3.9pps QoQ).
Further down, the flat movement in the interbank market (N305/$) and appreciation at the parallel market (+20% to N390/$2), compared to prior quarter, should dispel foreign exchange losses in the period.
To be clear, we now see scope for FX gains on the Trade creditors line—pegged to the parallel market.
This possibility notwithstanding, we take the cautious approach of discounting potential currency induced gains. Irrespective, we expect strong underlying performance over Q1 17, with an EPS estimate of N17.04 (83% QoQ and 104% YoY) leaving prospect for an interim dividend payment.
Over FY 17, despite expected higher average petrol pump price of N145/litre (2016 average: N123/litre) as well hike in lubes prices, weaker petrol volumes should moderate total sales growth to 8.5% YoY (to N315.6billion).
On cost, notwithstanding recent NGN appreciation at the parallel market which should ordinarily moderate input cost, our average crude oil price (22% YoY to $55/bbl.) and NGN forecasts (18% to N360/$) should leave COGS at elevated levels.
Consequently, gross margin should come in 20bps lower YoY at 16.7%. Furtherdown, amidst the still elevated payables, second order impact of weaker naira underpins our expectation for FX loss of N6.4bilion over 2017.
The foregoing should combine with higher net finance charges (+24% YoY to N717million), reflecting absence of payment of accrued interest on delayed subsidy, to drive our FY 17 EPS to N39.8 (-9% YoY) with total dividend at N19.88 (50% pay-out).
Total has had a good run over the last one year and currently trades at a P/E of 6.2x relative to 12.9x for peers. Net adjustments to our models drive our FVE 8% higher to N384.72, which implies a 43% upside from last closing price. We retain a BUY rating on the stock.
Source: www.armsecurities.com.ng.
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Economy
Transcorp, 33 Others Revive Nigerian Exchange by 0.32%

By Dipo Olowookere
The Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited rebounded by 0.32 per cent on Thursday following the interest of investors in Transcorp and 33 other equities.
Yesterday, Transcorp closed as the highest price gainer with a 9.98 per cent rise to settle at N51.80 and was trailed by SCOA Nigeria, which gained 9.88 per cent to trade at N3.78.
Further, Africa Prudential improved its value by 9.87 per cent to quote at N30.60, Tantalizers soared by 9.72 per cent to N2.37 and Caverton flew by 9.52 per cent to N2.76.
Conversely, Sunu Assurances, MRS Oil, and Red Star Express ended the day as the heaviest price losers after giving up 10.00 per cent each to sell for N4.77, N166.50, and N5.94, respectively, as Lasaco Assurance lost 7.99 per cent to finish at N2.65, and UPDC retreated by 6.76 per cent to N2.62.
At the close of business, 34 shares were on the gainers’ chart and 15 shares were on the losers’ log, implying a positive market breadth index and strong investor sentiment.
Business Post reports that the banking space expanded by 0.83 per cent, the consumer goods index increased by 0.78 per cent, the insurance sector jumped by 0.18 per cent, and the industrial goods industry chalked up 0.01 per cent, while the energy counter lost 0.09 per cent, with the commodity sector closing flat.
When the bourse ended for the session, the All-Share Index (ASI) was up by 344.24 points to 106,780.72 points from 106,436.48 points and the market capitalisation grew by N216 billion to N66.869 trillion from N66.653 trillion.
The level of activity waned on Thursday as 375.5 million stocks worth N10.2 billion exchanged hands in 11,447 deals compared with the 389.6 million stocks valued at N11.3 billion traded in 11,423 deals in the preceding day, indicating a rise in the number of deals by 0.21 per cent and a fall in the trading volume and value by 3.57 per cent and 9.74 per cent apiece.
The activity chart was dominated by banking equities, with GTCO selling 50.0 million units valued at N2.9 billion, Access Holdings exchanged 43.9 million units worth N1.0 billion, Zenith Bank traded 36.5 million units valued at N1.7 billion, Fidelity Bank transacted 27.1 million units for N468.7 million, and UBA sold 19.4 million units worth N705.1 million.
Economy
CBN Cuts Rate to 17.82% After N1.8trn Bid for N500bn One-Year T-Bills

By Dipo Olowookere
The treasury bills auction conducted by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) on Wednesday at the primary market received significant interests from investors, results of the exercise analysed by Business Post revealed.
It was observed that 364-day tenor was the most attractive, forcing the apex bank to slice the stop rate by 0.61 per cent to 17.82 per cent.
Details of the sales indicated that the central bank approached the market with N500 billion worth of the maturity, but it got bids valued at N1.8 trillion from investors, showing a strong appetite.
However, only N717.97 billion was allotted by the CBN at the close of the PMA. At the previous exercise, the 12-month paper cleared at 18.43 per cent.
Also, the central bank tampered with stop rate of the 182-day treasury bills during the session, cut by 0.25 per cent to 17.75 per cent from the previous 18.00 per cent.
This action was taken despite the tenor not experiencing an oversubscription like the long-dated bill.
Business Post reports that N80.00 billion worth of the six-month maturity was brought to the market for sale but investors submitted bids valued at N60.05 billion, with N50.95 billion approved by the apex bank.
But the stop rate of the 91-day instrument was left intact by the central bank at 17.00 per cent at the exercise.
About N70.00 billion worth of the three-month T-bills were auctioned on Wednesday, but the bids received were just N62.57 billion, with N61.52 billion allotted at the end of the exercise.
From the analysis, the CBN auctioned a total of N650 billion treasury bills during the PMA, but it got bids valued at N1.92 trillion, and allotted N830.44 billion.
Economy
Dangote Pays N402.3bn Tax to Boost Nigerian Economy

By Aduragbemi Omiyale
Over N402.3 billion was paid in taxes in 2024 by Dangote Industries Limited (DIL) as part of its efforts to support the federal government.
The taxes were paid by the subsidiaries of the pan-African conglomerate comprising Dangote Cement, NASCON, Dangote Packaging Limited among others.
Recall that Federal Inland Revenue Service (FIRS) had in late 2024 recognised DIL and its subsidiary, Bluestar Shipping as the most tax compliant organizations in the country during its Special Day at the 2024 Lagos International Trade Fair organised by the Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry (LCCI).
The FIRS is the agency responsible for assessing, collecting and accounting for tax and other revenues accruing to the Federal Government of Nigeria.
The N402.3 billion paid by DIL last year made the company the highest taxpayer in the country.
Speaking during a meeting with some senior media executives in Lagos, the Chief Branding and Communication Officer of Dangote Group, Mr Anthony Chiejina, as a responsible business organisation, DIL and its subsidiaries have never shied away from its obligations either to the government in the form of tax payment at all levels or to host communities in the form of Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR).
According to him, the group’s corporate strategy has evolved just as its businesses have grown, matured and diversified into new sectors and regions over the last four decades, noting that Dangote Group has almost single-handedly taken Nigeria to self-sufficiency in cement and refined petroleum products and is expanding rapidly across Africa.
Dangote Group and its subsidiaries were recognised as number one most compliant in tax payment in the country, just as the cement business at another occasion won three awards at the FMDQ Gold Awards in Lagos as the most active business in the Foreign Exchange market.
Dangote Cement Plc was adjudged as the Largest Commercial Paper Quotation on FMDQ and Single Largest Corporate Debt Issue on FMDQ. Also, Dangote Industries Ltd also emerged as the “Most active corporate in the foreign exchange market”.
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