Economy

Total Nigeria: Whistle Blowing on Solid First Quarter

Published

9 years ago

20/04/2017

By ARM Securities

In keeping with the rave in town, we beam our equity strategy searchlight on a leading Oil Marketing Company (OMC), Total Nigeria Plc. (Total), which is scheduled to report 1st quarter earnings in the last week of April.

Despite its striking FY 16 earnings, which was almost four-fold higher YoY with EPS at N43.58, Total’s share price has declined 9.7% YTD (post result release: – 3.7%)—underperforming the broader NSEASI.

In our view, the weak appetite for the stock was underpinned by the company’s disappointing final dividend announcement of only N7.00 which brought total DPS to N17.00, with the implied pay-out ratio of 39% well behind its average of 84% over the last decade.

That said, the stock is typically prone to big moves after earnings releases and can easily gap up if the numbers are as strong as expected.

For full-year ended 2016, revenue grew 39.9% YoY to N290.9billion, largely reflecting a 38% YoY increase in petrol sales. The jump in PMS turnover reflects higher prices (+42% YoY to an average of N123/litre) which neutered volume weakness. Elsewhere, sales of lubricants climbed 53% YoY as the company raised lubes prices even as NGN depreciation at the parallel market pulled back importation of lubes to create scope for market share expansion for domestic players.

Consequently, gross profit was 94% higher relative to prior year with corresponding margin jumping to a decade high of 16.9% (+4.7pps YoY).

The foregoing combined with efficient cost control (OPEX: +1.3% YoY) to drive a four-fold YoY expansion in earnings.

Total reported its highest gross margin on record of 24.2% (+12.2pps QoQ) in Q4 16 in line with those of its close rival (Forte Oil Plc).

In our view, the upsurge reflects price increases in lubes and deregulated product segments (LPG, AGO, DPK) which more than offset weaker petrol sales.

Irrespective, N9 billion in other expenses mainly due to N7.4billion in foreign exchange loss1 moderated the impact of its record gross margin to leave EPS at N9.32 (+17.3% QoQ and +147.9% YoY). Barring the impact of the FX loss, Q4 16 EPS would have printed at N36.00 (FY 16: +489.4% YoY to N70.26).

For Q1 17, we expect petrol volumes to head further south owing to higher prices and supply constraints.

Specifically, we forecast a 10% QoQ decline in petrol volumes to 373million litres. That said, as with Q4 16, higher prices across petrol (67% YoY to N145/litre), diesel (60% YoY to N234.5/litre), kerosene (40% YoY to N311.56/litre), and lubricants (+18% average) as well as resilient volumes in these segments (excluding petrol) guide our Q1 17E sales of N75.7billion (+27% YoY, +7% QoQ).

Consequently, our gross margin expectation for the quarter is 20.2% (+5.3pps YoY, -3.9pps QoQ).

Further down, the flat movement in the interbank market (N305/$) and appreciation at the parallel market (+20% to N390/$2), compared to prior quarter, should dispel foreign exchange losses in the period.

To be clear, we now see scope for FX gains on the Trade creditors line—pegged to the parallel market.

This possibility notwithstanding, we take the cautious approach of discounting potential currency induced gains. Irrespective, we expect strong underlying performance over Q1 17, with an EPS estimate of N17.04 (83% QoQ and 104% YoY) leaving prospect for an interim dividend payment.

Over FY 17, despite expected higher average petrol pump price of N145/litre (2016 average: N123/litre) as well hike in lubes prices, weaker petrol volumes should moderate total sales growth to 8.5% YoY (to N315.6billion).

On cost, notwithstanding recent NGN appreciation at the parallel market which should ordinarily moderate input cost, our average crude oil price (22% YoY to $55/bbl.) and NGN forecasts (18% to N360/$) should leave COGS at elevated levels.

Consequently, gross margin should come in 20bps lower YoY at 16.7%. Furtherdown, amidst the still elevated payables, second order impact of weaker naira underpins our expectation for FX loss of N6.4bilion over 2017.

The foregoing should combine with higher net finance charges (+24% YoY to N717million), reflecting absence of payment of accrued interest on delayed subsidy, to drive our FY 17 EPS to N39.8 (-9% YoY) with total dividend at N19.88 (50% pay-out).

Total has had a good run over the last one year and currently trades at a P/E of 6.2x relative to 12.9x for peers. Net adjustments to our models drive our FVE 8% higher to N384.72, which implies a 43% upside from last closing price. We retain a BUY rating on the stock.

Source: www.armsecurities.com.ng.

Economy

Naira Trades N1,354 Per Dollar at NAFEX

Published

10 minutes ago

10/02/2026

Adedapo Adesanya

By Adedapo Adesanya

The first trading of the week at the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEX) ended bullish for the Naira as it gained N11.93 or 0.87 per cent against the US Dollar on Monday, February 9, to trade at N1,354.26/$1 compared with the previous day’s N1,366.19/$1.

It also appreciated against the Pound Sterling in the official market during the session by N12.03 to settle at N1,845.72/£1 versus last Friday’s closing price of N1,857.75/£1, but depreciated against the Euro by 69 Kobo to quote at N1,613.19/€1, in contrast to the N1,612.52/€1 it was exchanged last Friday.

At the GTBank forex desk, the Nigerian Naira appreciated against the Dollar yesterday by N4 to close at N1,379/$1 versus the previous rate of N1,383/$1, and at the parallel market, it was flat at N1,450/$1.

The fortification of the Nigerian currency in the currency market on Monday was driven by forex liquidity, strong oil receipts, and flows from foreign investors attracted by the high yields on the country’s debt market.

Speaking at a forum on Monday, the Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), Mr Yemi Cardoso, declared that the bank’s reforms have established economic stability, evidenced by a significant reduction in inflation and growing external reserves, which he stated stood at $49 billion as of February 5, 2026.

He also highlighted the stability of the FX market, noting that the CBN is now accumulating foreign exchange from the market to enhance sustainability.

“By that, I mean that we now allow the market to generally find its level; many times, the Central Bank itself goes in to buy foreign exchange. The premium between the official and parallel market rates has collapsed to under 2 per cent,” Mr Cardoso stated.

The CBN chief said the reforms of the monetary authority—anchored on disinflation, FX market normalisation, and financial-system resilience—are already strengthening real-sector confidence.

As for the cryptocurrency market, it was in a recovery mode as investors took advantage of the drop in prices to add to their portfolios.

The pullback followed a turbulent few days in which Bitcoin (BTC) plunged to as low as $60,000 before rebounding. It rose 0.5 per cent on Monday to $70,415.57, as Ethereum (ETH) gained 0.9 per cent to trade at $2,116.42.

Further, Ripple (XRP) improved by 1.4 per cent to $1.44, Litecoin (LTC) expanded by 0.8 per cent to $54.66, Solana (SOL) grew by 0.5 per cent to $87.11, and Cardano (ADA) added 0.2 per cent to settle at $0.2704.

On the flip side, Binance Coin (BNB) slumped 0.6 per cent to $638.34, and Dogecoin (DOGE) weakened by 0.3 per cent to $0.0963, while the US Dollar Tether (USDT) and the US Dollar Coin (USDC) remained unchanged at $1.00 apiece.

Economy

Crude Oil Soars as US Cautions Vessels Near Iran

Published

39 minutes ago

10/02/2026

Adedapo Adesanya

By Adedapo Adesanya

Crude oil gained more than 1 per cent on Monday after the United States issued an advisory to US-flagged vessels to stay as far as possible from Iranian territory while passing through the Strait of Hormuz and Gulf of Oman.

The price of Brent crude was up 99 cents or 1.5 per cent during the session to $69.04 a barrel, while the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose 81 cents or 1.3 per cent to settle at $64.36 per barrel.

The US Department of Transportation (DOT) Maritime Administration yesterday noted that vessels going through the Strait of Hormuz and Gulf of Oman have historically faced the risk of being boarded by Iranian forces, including as recently as February 3.
The agency advised U.S.-flagged ships to stay close to Oman while eastbound in the Strait of Hormuz.

The move renewed concerns that tensions between the US and Iran could lead to oil supply disruptions. About a fifth of the oil consumed globally passes through the Strait of Hormuz between Oman and Iran.

US President Donald Trump has threatened to attack, citing possible executions of protesters, and saying “help is on its way.” He ordered the USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier and a flotilla of accompanying ships to the region.

In June, the US attacked Iranian nuclear facilities at the end of a 12-day Israeli bombing campaign.

Iran’s foreign minister said on Saturday the country will strike US bases in the Middle East if attacked by American forces, which have built up their naval presence in the region.

Investors were also monitoring efforts by Western governments to curb Russia’s income from oil exports that support its war in Ukraine.

The European Commission has proposed a sweeping ban on any services that support Russia’s seaborne crude oil exports, in fresh efforts to reduce revenues that help Russia’s war against Ukraine.

Refiners in India, once the biggest buyer of Russian crude, are avoiding purchases for delivery in April. Market analysts noted that if India fully stopped purchasing this crude, it would boost oil prices.

Meanwhile, Tengiz oilfield in Kazakhstan has returned 60 per cent of its peak production and was pumping at a rate of 550,000 barrels per day as of Sunday, following a forced shutdown for half of January due to a fire.

Tengiz, which is operated by a consortium led by US supermajor Chevron, is expected to reach peak levels of oil output of about 950,000 barrels per day by February 23.

Economy

Investors Begin New Week on NGX With N1.424trn Rise in Wealth

Published

1 hour ago

10/02/2026

Dipo Olowookere

By Dipo Olowookere

It was a positive start to the week for stock investors in Nigeria as they grew their wealth by 1.29 per cent on Monday amid a hunt for dividend-paying equities.

Business Post reports that three of the five sectoral indices ended in green, with the industrial goods space leading with a 4.76 per cent appreciation, and the energy counter up by 1.29 per cent, while the consumer goods index gained 0.74 per cent.

However, due to profit-taking in the financial services ecosystem yesterday, the banking counter went down by 0.04 per cent, and the insurance sector lost 0.03 per cent.

When the closing gong was struck, the All-Share Index (ASI) soared by 2,218.73 points to 173,946.22 points from 171,727.49 points, and the market capitalisation surged by N1.424 trillion to N111.659 trillion from N110.235 trillion.

The trio of May and Baker, CAP, and DAAR Communications improved by 10.00 per cent during the session to close at N43.45, N90.20, and N2.09 apiece, while RT Briscoe gained 9.98 per cent to trade at N13.89, with Deap Capital growing by 9.97 per cent to N7.50.

Conversely, Eunisell lost 9.98 per cent to settle at N134.85, Tripple Gee slumped by 8.90 per cent to N6.65, Abbey Mortgage Bank crashed by 8.03 per cent to N13.75, Austin Laz declined by 7.41 per cent to N5.00, and Haldane McCall slipped by 6.56 per cent to N3.99.

On the first trading day of the week, 59 stocks ended on the advancers’ log, and 26 stocks finished on the laggards’ table, representing a positive market breadth index and strong investor sentiment.

Despite the gains, the activity level waned on Monday as the trading volume and value decreased by 18.73 per cent and 35.27 per cent, respectively, while the number of deals increased by 29.32 per cent.

A total of 775.2 million equities worth N27.9 billion exchanged hands in 65,960 deals yesterday compared with the 953.8 million equities valued at N43.1 billion traded in 51,005 deals last Friday.

Access Holdings was the busiest stock for the session with a turnover of 67.1 million units worth N1.6 billion, Zenith Bank sold 46.2 million units valued at N3.4 billion, Secure Electronic Technology traded 43.9 million units for N47.9 million, Veritas Kapital exchanged 39.4 million units worth N91.6 million, and Mutual Benefits transacted 33.9 million units valued at N145.7 million.