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Useful Tips for Trading the Markets During Times of War

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tips for trading during time of war

The war in Ukraine has great implications on the global economy and the broad financial markets. Because the countries involved in the conflict are large exporters of energy, agricultural goods, and commodities, supply chains could take a big hit. It is during these moments traders are faced with challenges, but they need to adapt fast.

If you are not already using a position size calculator and taking steps to reduce your exposure, it might be the right time to act. This is just one of the golden tips for trading during times of crisis. Let’s take a look at some more important ones.

Tip #1 Trim position sizing

Although the elevated volatility and large price action swings might look like “once-in-a-lifetime trade opportunities”, in reality, the risks involved are greater. Counterintuitively, it would be better to reduce trade size and adjust risk management parameters.

By trading smaller amounts you gain more flexibility, including the ability to place wider stop losses, without risking a larger percentage of your account balance. Also, if things go wrong, the loss will not be greater.

Tip #2 Be aware of headline trading

Markets get emotional and react impulsively to any news headline released by major outlets. Just recently, stocks jumped in pre-market following positive remarks made by Russian President Vladimir Putin, even though the war is far from over.

Similar situations occurred when negative news was published, driving the risk sentiment lower. It wouldn’t be appropriate right now to jump the gun and place trades impulsively, especially if prices have already moved up or down. Wait and see what develops before making a decision.

Tip #3 The price can overshoot

When volatility surges anything can happen and a trend could extend beyond your expectations. Support and resistance levels are less significant because liquidity is thin and the price breaks above/below them, only to resume in the countertrend direction afterwards.

Gold price, for example, rose close to its 2020 highs and when everyone believed a breakout would be imminent, the precious metal started to weaken, leaving all who bought at the top underwater. Once the initial euphoria settles, the market starts to price in the substance and more often than not, what looks like very positive news might actually be nothing.

Tip #4 Adjust trades frequency

As tempting as it can be, increasing trade frequency will very likely mean a higher probability to make mistakes. Prices are choppy so more trades might put you in an uncomfortable position often. Instead of that, do the opposite and reduce the number of trades per day/week.

Be selective and choose only the setups that you believe could end up positive. Big financial institutions have access to advanced algorithms, the best execution, and information, which enables them to place trades before retail traders even find out what happened.

Wartime is when you need to have a conservative approach and not think about exaggerated returns. There will be a time when markets price in the war, starting to focus on other predictable variables. Until then, stay safe.

Dipo Olowookere is a journalist based in Nigeria that has passion for reporting business news stories. At his leisure time, he watches football and supports 3SC of Ibadan. Mr Olowookere can be reached via dipo.olowookere@businesspost.ng

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Economy

FG Moves to Improve Midstream, Downstream Operations

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downstream operations

By Adedapo Adesanya

The federal government, through the Nigeria Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA), has disclosed plans to unveil six regulations on midstream and downstream operations.

The regulations are being put in place to bring clarity to the sector as well as improve business processes and ease of doing business in the sector.

According to the Authority Chief Executive (ACE) of NMDPRA, Mr Farouk Ahmed, in a statement after a meeting with the Independent Petroleum Producers Group (IPPG), said the regulations are gas pricing, environmental management plan, environmental remediation fund, decommissioning and abandonment, gas infrastructure fund, and natural gas pipeline tariff.

The ACE also informed that a Working Team chaired by Mr Ogbugo K. Ukoha, Executive Director, Distribution Systems, Storage & Retailing Infrastructure (DSSRI) was set up to review the draft regulations, engage and consult stakeholders for smooth implementation when released.

Mr Ahmed further stated that the Authority was working hard on reducing the sector’s import dependency with more active efforts placed on local options.

“One of our key concerns is boosting local refining. Dangote and BUA refineries are coming on board; however, we want to see more companies investing in refineries so we can stop the importation of refined petroleum products, save our foreign earnings, create jobs and add value to the economy,” he explained.

The NMDPRA boss noted and commended the gradual growth of indigenous players in local exploration and production of petroleum products. He assured of the organisation’s commitment to making the business climate in the midstream and downstream conducive for local and foreign investment to thrive.

On his part, the IPPG Chairman, Mr Abdulrazaq Isa had said that the IPPG was an association of 25 indigenous Exploration and Production (E&P) companies with the vision to promote the continued development of the Nigerian Petroleum Industry for the benefit of industry stakeholders and the nation.

Mr Isa noted that timely communication with industry players was important at this time when the agency was going through a transition period, calling on NMDPRA to, as a matter of urgency, enact regulations on tariffs, domestic gas and clear license issuance modalities amongst others.

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Economy

NNPC, Sahara Group Invest $300m to ‘Circulate’ Clean Energy in Africa

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NNPC profit 44 years

By Adedapo Adesanya

The Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC) and leading energy and infrastructure conglomerate, Sahara Group, have taken delivery of two 23,000 CBM Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) vessels.

The delivery happened on Monday at the Hyundai MIPO Shipyard in Ulsan, South Korea, with plans to add 10 vessels in 10 years to enhance Africa’s transition to cleaner fuels.

The new vessels, MT BARUMK and MT SAPET have increased NNPC and Sahara Group’s joint venture investment to over $300 million, approaching the JV’s $1 billion gas infrastructure commitment by 2026.

The fleet previously comprised MT Sahara Gas and MT Africa Gas. All four vessels were built by Hyundai MIPO Dockyard, a foremost global manufacturer of mid-sized carriers.

WAGL Energy Limited, the JV company between NNPC and Oceanbed (a Sahara Group Company) is driving NNPC’s five-year $1 billion investment plan announced in 2021 to accelerate the decade of Gas and Energy transition agenda over the period.

Speaking on this, NNPC’s GMD, Mr Mele Kyari disclosed that the order of three additional new vessels was being finalised, adding that “we have a target of delivering 10 vessels over the next 10 years. The NNPC and our partners stand out with integrity in our energy transition quest and our commitment to environmental sustainability is unwavering.”

MT BARUMK and MT SAPET are WAGL and Sahara Group’s injections into the JV. WAGL is shoring up its gas fleet and terminal infrastructure, while Sahara Group continues to make remarkable progress in the construction of over 120,000 metric tonnes of storage facilities in 11 African countries, including Nigeria, Senegal, Ghana, Cote d’Ivoire, Tanzania, and Zambia, among others.

Mr Kyari also said the vessels were critical to driving the Federal Government’s commitment to the domestication of gas in Nigeria through several initiatives and increasing seamless supply in compliance with the mandate of President Muhammad Buhari.

The initiatives –  the LPG Penetration Framework and LPG Expansion Plan are geared towards encouraging the use of gas in households, power Generation, auto-gas and industrial applications in order to attain 5 Million Metric tonnes of LPG consumption by 2025.

“This is another epoch-making achievement for the NNPC and Sahara Group, and we remain firmly committed to delivering more formidable gas projects for the benefit of Nigeria and the entire sub-region,” Mr Kyari said.

On his part, Mr Temitope Shonubi, Executive Director, Sahara Group, said: “WAGL has successfully operated two mid-sized LPG Carriers MT Africa Gas and MT Sahara Gas in the region in keeping with global standards, delivering over 6 million CBM of LPG across West Africa. With the new vessels, we are set to promote and lead Africa’s march towards energy transition.”

Mr Ali Magashi, Nigeria’s Ambassador to South Korea who represented the Federal Government, noted that President Muhammad Buhari deserved commendation for the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) which he said would reposition the NNPC to explore more projects with partners like Sahara Group.

BARUMK was derived from the combination of the name and initials of the late NNPC GMD, Dr Maikanti K. Baru, in fond memory of his immense support for the Gas development in Nigeria. “SAPET” is named after the Sahara – Petroci (the Ivorian National Oil Company) JV LPG Company (SAPET Energy SA.), currently constructing phase one of a 12,000MT LPG storage facility in Abidjan, with expansion plans to achieve 30,000MT in phase two. The JV emerged from WAGL’s trading relationship with PETROCI, dating back to 2014.

LPG is the fastest-growing petroleum product in sub-Sahara Africa over the last decade, with forecasts indicating that LPG will grow at a 7 per cent Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) over the next 15 years.

Increased uptake of LPG will reduce net Green House Gas (GHG) emissions and pressure on forest reserves, thereby increasing environmental sustainability.

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Economy

Nigeria’s GDP Grows 3.11% in Q1 2022 Amid Lower Economic Activity

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GDP Nigeria growth

By Aduragbemi Omiyale

The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on Monday said the gross domestic product (GDP) of Nigeria in the first quarter of 2022 increased by 3.11 per cent on a year-to-year basis in real terms amid lower economic activity, according to the stats office.

In the same period of last year, the GDP stood at 2.60 per cent, 0.51 per cent lower than the figures in Q1 2022 and when compared with the preceding quarter, which was the fourth quarter of 2021 at 3.98 per cent, the current GDP is 0.88 per cent lower.

However, the country’s economy is recording positive growth for the sixth consecutive quarter since the recession witnessed in 2020 when negative growth rates were recorded in the second and third quarters.

In the quarter under review, aggregate GDP stood at N45,317,823.33 million in nominal terms, higher than the N40,014,482.74 million recorded in the first quarter of 2021, indicating a year-on-year nominal growth rate of 13.25 per cent.

According to the NBS, the nominal GDP growth rate in Q1 2022 was higher relative to the 12.25 per cent growth recorded in the first quarter of 2021 and higher compared to the 13.11 per cent growth recorded in the preceding quarter.

Further analysis indicated that the oil sector contributed 6.63 per cent to the total real GDP in Q1 2022, down from the figures recorded in the corresponding period of 2021 and up compared to the preceding quarter, where it contributed 9.25 per cent and 5.19 per cent respectively.

In the first three months of this year, the real growth of the sector was –26.04 per cent (year-on-year), a decrease of 23.83 per cent compared with the rate recorded in the corresponding quarter of 2021. Growth decreased by 17.99 per cent points when compared to Q4 2021 which was –8.06 per cent and on a quarter-on-quarter basis, it recorded a growth rate of 9.11 per cent in Q1 2022.

In the period under consideration, the average daily oil production of Nigeria was 1.49 million barrels per day (mbpd), lower than the daily average production of 1.72mbpd recorded in the same quarter of 2021 by 0.23mbpd and lower than the fourth quarter of 2021 production volume of 1.50mbpd by 0.01mbpd.

As for the non-oil sector, it contributed 93.37 per cent to the nation’s GDP in the first quarter of 2022, higher than the share recorded in the first quarter of 2021 which was 90.75 per cent and lower than the fourth quarter of 2021 recorded as 94.81 per cent.

In Q1 2022, the non-oil sector grew by 6.08 per cent in real terms, higher by 5.28 per cent points compared to the rate recorded same quarter of 2021 and 1.34 per cent points higher than the fourth quarter of 2021.

This sector was driven in the first quarter of 2022 mainly by Information and Communication (Telecommunication); Trade; Financial and Insurance (Financial Institutions); Agriculture (Crop Production); and Manufacturing (Food, Beverage & Tobacco).

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