Economy

West African Economies’ Risk-Reward Score Improve

Published

8 years ago

21/06/2018

By Dipo Olowookere

Increased political stability, improved commodity prices and effective public economic reforms led to an improvement of the risk-reward score in several West African economies, according to the 2018 Africa Risk-Reward Index from Control Risks and Oxford Economics.

Ghana leads these positive developments for West Africa, recording the strongest improvement in its risk-reward score in Africa, after Zimbabwe and Egypt. Both Nigeria and Senegal benefit from a greatly improved risk score.

Tom Griffin, Senior Partner for West Africa at Control Risks, comments that, “In 2017 many West African governments have embarked on an impressive journey to implement the right reforms for economic growth and improvement of investors’ confidence.

“Since coming to power in January 2017, Ghana’s government has continued to undertake a programme of macroeconomic reforms which have focused on reducing the deficit and external debt. In the last year, this had a particularly positive impact on issues such as credit and exchange risk.

“At the same time, Ghana has attempted to improve the business environment for investors by reducing the bureaucratic and taxation burden, as well as laying out plans for further investment activity in the oil and gas and manufacturing sectors.

“In Nigeria, the recently initiated Economic Recovery and Growth Plan has begun to tackle some of the economy’s challenges, including corruption and an infrastructure deficit.

“The plan has also sought to remove bottlenecks to improve the ease of doing business, which in turn boosts investors’ confidence.

“In the last three years, Senegal’s Emerging Senegal Plan has already led to steady growth, reaching close to 6.4% in 2017.

“The reduction in its risk score is one of the most positive changes in the 2018 Africa Risk-Reward Index and can be explained by structural reforms to improve the business environment, strengthened macro-economic fundamentals and a controlled debt management policy.”

Further findings of the report showed that Angola’s leadership change has not yet improved its reward score, but its risk score has gone down: Angola’s new president, João Lourenço, has acted with remarkable speed and decisiveness to consolidate his authority. Efforts to dismantle his predecessor’s networks have provided new opportunities for foreign investment in sectors previously dominated by companies linked to the former president and his family. Combined with an improved regulatory environment, investors can seek opportunities predominantly in the oil and gas, diamond, and telecommunications sectors. Reward score: 3.65 / risk score: 6.55.

South Africa – slightly increased reward score and reduced risk score as political uncertainty eases: Investor confidence has increased since Cyril Ramaphosa assumed the presidency in February 2018. The implementation of policies – intended to consolidate fiscal expenditure and tackle corruption in public institutions and state-owned enterprises – increases opportunities for doing business in South Africa. But deeply entrenched patronage networks and electoral pressure ahead of the 2019 general elections will contribute to a slow recovery of South Africa. Reward score: 4.78 / risk score: 4.74

Kenya’s reward score remains one of the highest in sub-Saharan Africa, but the government’s external debt burden raises concerns: Winning the election in 2017, Kenya’s leading Jubilee Party of Kenya continues its pro-business policies. However, concerns arise over the government’s external debt burden, with a new USD 2bn Eurobond issued in February even as the proceeds of a previous issue have yet to be fully accounted for. Furthermore, improving relations between the government and the opposition will be instrumental in ensuring that political tensions do not undermine economic growth, and more prudent fiscal and macroeconomic policies are needed to maintain positive economic prospects. Reward score: 6.36 / risk score: 5.51

Côte d’Ivoire, with a forecasted real GDP growth rate of 7% in 2018, continues its impressive economic recovery, but great challenges remain: With reforms to the business environment and efforts to bring foreign investors back after the 2010-2011 crisis, Côte d’Ivoire has achieved amongst the highest growth rates in the world in recent years, and sectors such as construction, telecommunications, banking and retail have seen considerable growth. However, severe obstacles to a full recovery persist, including political interference and corruption, socioeconomic discontent, shortcomings in security-sector reform, and growing competition ahead of the potentially volatile 2020 presidential poll. Reward score: 6.51 / risk score: 6.24.

Senegal – growing investment and a reduced risk score presage continuous growth: Under the Emerging Senegal Plan, growth has increased steadily over the last three years, reaching close to 6.4% in 2017. Growing exports, a more diversified economy and increased interest from large international investors as a result of the promising offshore oil and gas discoveries make Senegal one of the poster children in sub-Saharan Africa. The reduction in its risk score is one of the most positive changes in the 2018 Africa Risk-Reward Index. Reward score: 5.76 / risk score: 4.56

Morocco – economic reforms improve the country’s resilience and make its exports more competitive, but social discontent remains a challenge: With one of the lowest risk scores on the 2018 Africa Risk-Reward Index and a relatively stable reward score, Morocco’s economic reforms prove to be a success. Medium-term growth will be enhanced by continued reforms to facilitate foreign investment, access to finance, quality of education and the business environment, as these represent the primary constraints to competitiveness and doing business. However, social-economic unrest over poor living conditions persists particularly in interior regions. Reward score: 5.77 / risk score: 4.10.

Economy

NASD Market Falls 1.18% to Extend Losing Streak

Published

1 day ago

14/03/2026

Adedapo Adesanya

By Adedapo Adesanya

The NASD Over-the-Counter (OTC) Securities Exchange extended its stay in the south for the fourth consecutive session after it shed 1.18 per cent on Friday, March 13.

The unlisted securities market recorded a loss despite closing without a price decliner, and ending with two price gainers led by Geo Fluids Plc, which gained 1o Kobo to sell at N3.10 per share compared with the previous day’s N3.00 per share. Industrial and General Insurance (IGI) Plc appreciated during the session by 2 Kobo to trade at 54 Kobo per unit versus Thursday’s closing price of 52 Kobo per unit.

When the market closed for the day, the market capitalisation lost N29.83 billion to close at N2.489 trillion compared with the N2.519 trillion it finished a day earlier, and the NASD Unlisted Security Index (NSI) crashed by 49.84 points to 4,160.46 points from 4,210.31 points.

Market activity improved yesterday, as the volume of transactions rose 179.5 per cent to 10.4 million units from 3.7 million units, but the value of trades declined by 68.4 per cent to N29.9 million from N95.0 million, while the number of deals weakened by 11.5 per cent to 46 deals from 52 deals.

Central Securities Clearing Systems (CSCS) Plc remained the most active stock by value on a year-to-date basis with 38.4 million units worth N2.4 billion, Okitipupa Plc followed with 6.4 million units traded at N1.1 billion, and FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc transacted 6.3 million units for N584.3 million.

Resourcery Plc ended the trading session as the most traded stock by volume on a year-to-date basis with 1.1 billion units valued at N415.6 million, trailed by Geo-Fluids Plc with 130.8 million units valued at N504.5 million, and CSCS Plc with 38.4 million units worth N2.4 billion.

Economy

Naira Trades N1,366/$1 at Official Market, N1,400/$1 at Black Market

Published

1 day ago

14/03/2026

Adedapo Adesanya

By Adedapo Adesanya

The Naira continued to claw back some gains against the Dollar in the different segments of the foreign exchange (FX) market, as its value was strengthened on Friday.

In the black market, it gained N10 against the United States Dollar yesterday to close at N1,400/$1 compared with the preceding day’s rate of N1,410/$1, and at the GTBank forex counter, it chalked up N6 to close at N1,385/$1, in contrast to the N1,391/$1 it was traded a day earlier.

Similarly, in the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEX), it appreciated against the greenback during the session by N5.28 or 0.38 per cent to quote at N1,366.23/$1 versus Thursday’s closing price of N1,371.51/$1.

It also improved its value against the Pound Sterling in the official market on Friday by N21.81 to settle at N1,812.99/£1 compared with the previous day’s N1,834.80/£1, and gained N13.86 against the Euro to sell at N1,568.03/€1 versus N1,581.89/€1.

Pressure eased further on the FX market as the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) continued interventionist operations this week, selling Dollars to banks to boost liquidity after a $500 million boost last week.

This was complemented by inflows from foreign investors, exporters and non-bank corporates, among others, while Nigeria’s gross external reserves remained above $50 billion, the highest since 2009.

The Governor of the apex bank, Mr Yemi Cardoso, also eased fears of a Naira devaluation, saying the country’s financial system has been strengthened by reforms.

Regardless, external pressure looms as the US Dollar strengthened globally due to its war with Iran, now ongoing for three weeks.

Meanwhile, the cryptocurrency market was largely down as traders and investors continue to align with current realities.

The market is adapting to the conflict in real time. Early in the war, every headline produced an outsized reaction because nobody could price the tail risk. Now, traders have a framework where strikes happen, oil spikes and bitcoin dips only to recover again.

Cardano (ADA) depreciated by 3.8 per cent to $0.2623, Dogecoin (DOGE) lost 1.7 per cent to finish at $0.0948, Ripple (XRP) slumped 1.5 per cent to $1.39, Solana (SOL) dropped 1.4 per cent to sell for $87.33, Binance Coin (BNB) went down by 1.3 per cent to $653.58, Bitcoin (BTC) declined by 1.1 per cent to $70,670.63, and Ethereum (ETH) decreased by 0.9 per cent to $2,078.78.

However, TRON (TRX) appreciated by 1.7 per cent to $0.2941, while the US Dollar Tether (USDT) and the US Dollar Coin (USDC) remained unchanged at $1.00 apiece.

Economy

Oil Stays Above $100 as Strait of Hormuz Traffic Stalls

Published

1 day ago

14/03/2026

Adedapo Adesanya

By Adedapo Adesanya

The price of the major crude oil grade, Brent crude oil, closed above $100 on Friday for the second consecutive session, as the Iran war heads toward its third week, with oil tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz still effectively at a standstill.

It gained 2.67 per cent or $2.68 during the trading day to close at $103.14 per barrel, while the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil grade appreciated by 3.11 per cent or $2.98 to settle at $98.71 per barrel.

Brent futures were up about 10 per cent for the week following the 27 per cent rise seen last week, which marked the biggest weekly gain in oil prices since the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. WTI futures, which saw their best week since 1983 last week, ended the week more than 8 per cent higher.

US President Donald Trump said American forces launched a major bombing raid on Iran’s strategic Kharg Island, targeting military facilities on the key Persian Gulf outpost while warning Iran that its vital oil infrastructure could be destroyed if shipping in the Strait of Hormuz is disrupted.

The terminal accounts for roughly 90 per cent of Iranian crude shipments, loading millions of barrels per day onto tankers bound largely for Asian markets.

The US and Israel’s strikes in the conflict have largely targeted Iranian military and nuclear infrastructure. Oil facilities elsewhere in Iran have been hit, but Kharg’s massive storage tanks, jetties, and pipelines had remained untouched until the latest strike.

Iran’s new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, vowed to keep fighting in a message delivered via state television.

There have been a number of attacks on foreign ships in or near the Strait, feeding into concerns that a prolonged war could translate to a global economic shock.

Prices are rising despite the US and its allies rolling out some measures to keep a lid on energy costs.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) has agreed to release 400 million stockpiled barrels, the largest such action in history.

The US has issued a 30-day waiver for India to purchase sanctioned oil from Russia. President Donald Trump is considering loosening rules under the Jones Act that require American ships to transport goods between domestic ports, including oil and gas, in an effort to lower costs.

Traders are continuing to monitor developments in the Middle East.