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Economy

What Nigeria Gains From US-Iran Crisis

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By Adedapo Adesanya

On Friday, January 3, 2020 the United States president, Mr Donald Trump, ordered an airstrike, which killed top Iranian General, Mr Qassem Soleimani, the head of Iran’s elite Quds military force and one of the most powerful figures in the country.

This spurred hike in oil prices as Brent crude oil futures, the global benchmark, coursed more than 4 percent, while the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil jumped more than 3 percent due to the escalation of the geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and Iran.

For a country like Nigeria, whose mainstay is oil, this development turned out to be a blessing because global events, which badly affect prices oil, have always been a major source of worry for government due to low revenues generated from the sale of the black gold.

But with the ongoing tensions from the assassination of the Iranian military chief, more money would continued to be raked from the sale of crude oil at higher prices.

In fact, Nigeria will like prices of oil to continue to trend higher at the global market because in the 2020 budget, the benchmark for crude oil was pegged at $60 per barrel.

Since last Friday, when the unmanned US drone attacked Mr Soleimani, prices have hovered around $70 (on Friday, January 3), $69 dollars over the weekend, and as the time of this report at $68 per barrel. This means prices are still in a safe net for the country.

By estimates, Nigeria produces over 1.5 million barrels of oil per day and at with an average increase of $69 per barrel since Friday, according to analysis by Business Post, the country has raked over $400 million so far from the sale of the commodity.

However, analysts have noted that a further escalation of the Mideast tensions could drive prices up as Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has vowed to inflict “severe retaliation” on those involved in Mr Soleimani’s death, and following this, the United States has also strengthened its military presence in and around the region.

A retaliation means that oil will rise with analysts saying that Iran’s could initiate attacks on oil tankers in the Persian Gulf, as it did in 2019 with a British tanker and a number of drones. This would provide support for oil prices but would be not hold on for much longer.

A bigger occurrence would be an attack on oil infrastructure of US allies in the Persian Gulf such as the September strikes on Saudi oil infrastructure, which led to a loss of 5.7 million barrels per day of oil production capacity when Iranian-backed Houthi rebels attacked the facilities.

The biggest would be if Iran closed off the Strait of Hormuz, which serves as a passageway for a major portion of the oil supply. Such an action would limit access to Asian markets where China, India, Japan and South Korea, some of the largest consumers are located.

However, even with the possible rise, oil prices face huge pressure from non-OPEC supplier like the United States, Brazil, and Norway, who would want to increase their output and eventually crash prices or lead the market to an oversupply which the OPEC and its allies – which includes Nigeria took a decision to curb by reducing oil production by 1.7 million barrels per day to help prices and stop oil glut this year.

But whichever way, Nigeria will continue to cash in on the crisis and use the opportunity to shore up its external reserves, which have depleted in recent times due to low prices of crude oil.

Adedapo Adesanya is a journalist, polymath, and connoisseur of everything art. When he is not writing, he has his nose buried in one of the many books or articles he has bookmarked or simply listening to good music with a bottle of beer or wine. He supports the greatest club in the world, Manchester United F.C.

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Economy

United Capital Acquires 5% Stake in Nigerian Exchange Group

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United Capital revenue

By Adedapo Adesanya

United Capital Plc has acquired a 5 per cent equity stake in the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Group Plc for an undisclosed fee, deepening its involvement in Nigeria’s capital market.

The pan-African investment banking and financial services group announced this in a statement on Monday, noting that the transaction had been successfully completed and describing the investment as a key milestone in its long-term growth strategy.

NGX Plc, which serves as the holding company for Nigeria’s premier securities exchange and related market infrastructure businesses, plays a central role in Nigeria’s capital formation, market development, and economic growth.

United Capital said the acquisition reflects its confidence in the future of Nigeria’s capital markets and positions the Group to contribute more actively to the development of the nation’s financial system.

Commenting on the development, the chief executive of United Capital, Mr Peter Ashade, said the investment aligns with the company’s vision of creating sustainable value while supporting institutions critical to economic development.

“This acquisition reflects our confidence in Nigeria’s capital markets and our responsibility to contribute to their growth actively,” Mr Ashade said.

“We have always said that United Capital is not just a participant in Nigeria’s capital markets; we are also builders. This strategic investment in NGX Plc is exactly that: we are building for impact. It is our vote of confidence in the leadership and strategic direction of the NGX and where the capital market is headed,” he added.

According to him, the acquisition underscores the firm’s commitment to supporting the continued evolution of Nigeria’s capital market infrastructure while delivering long-term value to shareholders.

United Capital, which operates across 12 countries in West, East and Central Africa, provides a range of services spanning investment banking, asset management, securities trading and wealth management.

The company said the stake in NGX Plc would enable it to leverage its regional footprint and market expertise to support the Exchange’s next phase of growth and transformation.

The acquisition comes amid a series of strategic milestones for the financial services group, including the successful recapitalisation of all its subsidiaries ahead of regulatory deadlines and the recent acquisition of operational licences in Ethiopia and Rwanda.

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Economy

Nigerians Resist IMF Proposal for Higher VAT, Telecom Tax

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excise tax on telecom

By Adedapo Adesanya

Nigerians have kicked against suggestions by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to the federal government to consider increasing the Value Added Tax (VAT) rate and introducing excise duties on telecommunications services as part of efforts to boost revenue generation and create fiscal space for development spending.

IMF, in its 2026 Article IV Consultation Report on Nigeria, warned that despite recent tax reforms, additional revenue measures would likely be required over the medium term to support critical social and infrastructure spending.

According to the IMF, Nigeria’s revenue mobilisation efforts must go beyond administrative improvements to address the country’s persistently low revenue-to-GDP ratio and rising expenditure pressures.

The Fund stated that, “Further tax policy changes will likely be needed, such as increasing the VAT rate, extending VAT to fuel products, rationalising tax expenditures in particular VAT exemptions on extractive industries and some customs duties, and introducing telecom excises, to complement administrative gains.”

It noted that while the recently enacted tax reforms are expected to improve revenue collection over time, some of the measures are revenue-reducing in the short term and may take time to yield significant gains.

On X (formerly Twitter), user @RealCeecee wrote – “You want to impose more suffering on people living on empty pockets. Where exactly does all this revenue go to? IMF would never give this kind of advice to any country that has good leaders, when the masses are already going through extreme suffering.”

“To be honest Nigerian need to stand its feet against the IMF, no be anything them go detect for us. The revenue they are talking about has anyone seen where it goes, let alone imposing another way to generate that will actually cause discomfort for Nigerians,” another handle, @KingMasy, wrote.

The IMF had stressed that continued revenue mobilisation is essential if the government is to sustain higher capital spending and expand social intervention programmes aimed at cushioning the impact of economic reforms on vulnerable Nigerians.

“Over the medium term, continued revenue mobilisation is essential to creating fiscal space for development and social spending,” the Fund said, adding that there was limited room to maintain the projected increase in capital expenditure without additional revenue sources.

The Bretton Woods institution, however, cautioned that the timing of any new tax measures should take into account the worsening poverty and food insecurity situation in the country.

It emphasised that any tax increases should be accompanied by a fully funded and effective cash transfer programme to shield vulnerable households from additional economic hardship.

“The timing of reforms must consider the poverty and food insecurity situation and ensure that the cash transfer system is in place and funded,” the report stated.

The IMF’s recommendation comes as Nigeria continues to grapple with weak revenue generation despite recent reforms, including the removal of fuel subsidies and efforts to improve tax administration.

The Fund projected that poverty and food insecurity could worsen amid higher global fuel and food prices, noting that poverty had already reached 63 per cent of the population while about 27 million Nigerians faced food insecurity in 2025.

It also reiterated its call for a neutral fiscal stance in 2026, warning that spending pressures linked to poverty, food insecurity and preparations for the 2027 general elections could widen fiscal deficits and increase financing needs if not carefully managed.

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Economy

Nigeria’s Inflation Rises to 15.93% in May as Prices Remain Elevated

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Nigeria’s Headline Inflation

By Adedapo Adesanya 

The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) has revealed that Nigeria’s headline inflation rate in May 2026 rose to 15.93 per cent from 15.69 per cent in April, as the pressure from the Iran war continued to affect the global economy.

In the report on Monday, the statistical office showed that the headline inflation rate for May on a month-on-month basis was 1.75 per cent. 0.39 per cent lower than the 2.13 per cent recorded in April 2026.

On an annualised basis, the print was down from 26.06 per cent in the same month of the preceding year (May 2025). This was due to the rebasing of the calculation year from 2009 to 2024.

The rise in prices, which stemmed from the continued conflict in the Middle East, continued to stoke food prices and energy costs, which account for a huge chunk of average spending.

According to the NBS, “this can be attributed to the rate of change in the average prices of the following products: Millet whole grain, yam flour, ginger (Fresh), beef, garri, tam tuber, pepper (Fresh), cray fish, cassava tuber, Beans, Irish Potatoes, tomatoes (fresh), wheat grain (Sold loose), soya beans, guinea corn, plantain, carrots (Fresh) etc.”

The Food inflation rate in May 2026 on a month-on-month basis was 2.98 per cent, down by 0.65 percentage points from April 2026 (3.63 per cent), while on a year-on-year basis, it was 16.96 per cent and stood at 24.55 per cent in the same month of the preceding year (May 2025).

In its recent assessment of Nigeria, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) acknowledged the country’s ongoing macroeconomic reform efforts while warning that rising inflation, deepening poverty, and external shocks linked to geopolitical tensions could undermine recent gains.

The IMF projected a reversal in the disinflation trend, with headline inflation rising from 15.1 per cent in February 2026 to 15.4 per cent in March, driven largely by food price increases. It projected year-end inflation of 17.0 per cent, citing global commodity shocks and domestic pass-through effects.

The lender also recommended that the Central Bank of Nigeria maintain a cautious, data-dependent monetary policy stance following its recent steadying of interest rates at 26.5 per cent.

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