Economy
World Bank Predicts 1.6% Fall For African Economies
By Modupe Gbadeyanka
***Proposes Deeper Diversification, Better Policies
An analysis conducted by the World Bank has advocated for better economic policies and deeper diversification for African countries.
The World Bank noted in the report that countries of Sub-Saharan Africa present a diversified landscape of economic growth.
The bi-annual analysis of the state of African economies named Africa’s Pulse pointed out that while economic growth across the continent is projected to fall to 1.6% this year, the lowest level in over two decades, the GDP growth is showing resilience in about a quarter of countries.
Some of the best performers—Ethiopia, Rwanda, and Tanzania—have continued to post annual average growth rates of over 6%, and Côte d’Ivoire and Senegal have recently climbed into the ranks of top performing countries.
The weak aggregate economic performance is mainly a reflection of deteriorating economic performance in the continent’s largest economies: Nigeria and South Africa, which together account for half the region’s output.
In Nigeria, GDP contracted during the first two quarters of the year due to low oil revenues and a fall in manufacturing, among other things.
In South Africa, the economy contracted slightly in the first quarter, before rebounding in the second quarter, thanks to an increase in mining and manufacturing output.
Generally, oil exporters in Sub-Saharan Africa continue to experience slippages in economic growth due to shocks from the collapse of commodity prices. This underlines once more the limited diversification of their economies.
“Adjustment to low commodities has been limited in several commodity exporters, even as vulnerabilities have mounted,” says Punam Chuhan-Pole, World Bank Lead Economist for Africa. “Adjustment efforts should include measures to strengthen domestic resource mobilization, so as to reduce overdependence on resource-based revenues.”
A deeper analysis of economic growth patterns in the region shows that countries’ economies have performed differently in the years before and after the global financial crisis of 2008.
Some countries, those categorized as “established”, have sustained strong performance in both periods. Several other countries are seeing strong performance in recent years, and are categorized as “improved”.
Overall, these resilient groups of countries show more diversified export structures and have made more progress on structural reforms, business regulation, rule of law, and government effectiveness. Outlook Against this backdrop, a modest rebound is forecast for Sub-Saharan Africa in 2017.
Economic activity is expected to rise to 2.9%. The uneven growth performance we currently see should continue, with the region’s largest economies and other commodity exporters experiencing modest growth, as commodity prices strengthen slowly, while other countries continue to expand at a robust pace, supported in part by infrastructure investments.
Looking ahead, increasing agricultural productivity on the continent is central to transforming Sub-Saharan Africa. Analysis shows that addressing the quality of spending and the efficiency of resource use is even more critical than addressing the level of agriculture spending.
Rebalancing the composition of public agricultural spending could reap massive payoffs. The Report’s Key MessagesAfter slowing to 3% in 2015, economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa is projected to fall to 1.6%in 2016, the lowest level in over two decades.
The sharp decline in aggregate growth reflects the challenging economic conditions in the region’s largest economies and commodity exporters as they continue to face headwinds from low commodity prices, tight financing conditions, and domestic policy uncertainties.
At the same time, in about a quarter of countries, economic growth is showing signs of resilience. Some countries—Ethiopia, Rwanda, and Tanzania—have continued to post annual average growth rates of over 6%, exceeding the top tercile of the regional distribution; and several other countries—including Côte d’Ivoire and Senegal—have moved into the top tercile of performers.
Risks to the outlook remain tilted to the downside. On the external front, old risks remain salient and include slower improvements in commodity prices, tighter global financial conditions, and security concerns.
Post-global financial crisis performance in the region as a whole has not been as stellar as it was pre-crisis.
However, there are some diverging growth experiences across countries.
Increasing agricultural productivity is central to transforming Sub-Saharan African economies. Addressing the quality of public spending and the efficiency of resource use is even more critical than addressing the level of spending.
By Dipo Olowookere
About 0.04 per cent was recovered on Friday from the loss recorded by the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) the previous due to profit-taking.
Yesterday, investors were in the market with renewed vigour, mopping up stocks trading at relatively cheaper prices.
According to data, the insurance counter gained 0.41 per cent, the banking sector appreciated by 0.38 per cent, and the consumer goods index grew by 0.14 per cent.
The gains achieved by these three sectors were enough to lift Customs Street at the close of business despite the 0.26 per cent decline printed by the industrial goods segment and the 0.14 per cent loss suffered by the energy industry. The commodity counter was flat during the session.
A total of 43 equities gained weight on the last trading day of this week, while 26 equities shed weight, indicating a positive market breadth index and strong investor sentiment.
Red Star Express increased its share price by 10.00 per cent to N13.20, NCR Nigeria grew by 9.97 per cent to N128.55, SCOA Nigeria inflated by 9.96 per cent to N14.90, Omatek appreciated by 9.94 per cent to N1.77, and Deap Capital expanded by 9.85 per cent to N4.46.
On the flip side, McNichols decreased by 8.81 per cent to N6.00, Legend Internet crumbled by 7.56 per cent to N5.50, Cornerstone Insurance crashed by 6.48 per cent to N6.35, C&I Leasing contracted by 6.29 per cent to N8.20, and Austin Laz slipped by 5.78 per cent to N3.75.
Yesterday, 539.9 million shares valued at N16.7 billion were transacted in 48,023 deals versus the 1.0 billion shares worth N31.6 billion executed in 51,227 deals in the preceding day, implying a shrink in the trading volume, value, and number of deals by 46.01 per cent, 47.15 per cent, and 6.26 per cent apiece.
Zenith Bank was the most active for the day with 54.6 million stocks sold for N3.8 billion, Jaiz Bank traded 41.5 million units worth N359.4 million, Secure Electronic Technology transacted 37.7 million units valued at N39.2 million, Access Holdings exchanged 30.5 million units for N699.2 million, and Lasaco Assurance transacted 27.2 million units worth N68.3 million.
When the market closed for the day, the All-Share Index (ASI) went up by 72.21 points to 166,129.50 points from 166,057.29 points and the market capitalisation gained N31 billion to N106.354 trillion from N106.323 trillion.
By Adedapo Adesanya
It was a positive ending for the Naira this week after it further appreciated against the US Dollar in the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEX) on Friday, January 16 by N1.33 or 0.09 per cent to sell for N1,417.95/$1 compared with the previous day’s N1,419.28/$1.
The domestic currency also gained N2.41 against the Euro in the official market to close at N1,647.51/€1 versus the preceding session’s closing price of N1,649.92/€1, however, it suffered a N7.97 loss against the Pound Sterling in the same market window to trade at N1,901.32/£1, in contrast to Thursday’s closing price of N1,893.35/£1.
In the same vein, the Nigerian Naira depleted against the Dollar at the GTBank FX counter by N2 to quote at N1,427/$1 compared with the previous day’s N1,425/$1, but strengthened against the greenback at the black market yesterday by N5 to settle at N1,485/$1 versus the N1,490/$1 it was exchanged a day earlier.
Improved supply conditions helped keep the market within range as exporters’ and importers’ inflows in addition to non-bank corporate supply enhanced liquidity as the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) made no visible intervention.
Stronger external inflows from foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) and improving current account dynamics, continue to align with structural support in the wider economy.
Nigeria has seen projections of a stronger economic or gross domestic product (GDP) growth and lower inflation in 2026, with these forecasts citing improved macroeconomic fundamentals and reform impacts.
As for the cryptocurrency market, it was mixed following selloff in precious metals and lower US stocks appeared to be denting crypto sentiment.
Gold and silver, both of which also enjoyed big rallies earlier this week, tumbled 1.2 per cent and 5 per cent, respectively while key US stock indexes — the Nasdaq, S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average — all reversed from early gains to modest losses in Friday trade.
Dogecoin (DOGE) shrank by 2.2 per cent to $0.1370, Ripple (XRP) slipped by 0.8 per cent to $2.05, Ethereum (ETH) went down by 0.7 per cent to $3,228.56, and Bitcoin (BTC) slumped by 0.6 per cent to $95,086.80.
Conversely, Litecoin (LTC) appreciated by 3.2 per cent to $74.48, Solana (SOL) rose by 0.4 per cent to $143.70, Cardano (ADA) jumped by 0.2 per cent to $0.3942, and Binance Coin (BNB) increased by 0.1 per cent to $935.88, while the US Dollar Tether (USDT) and the US Dollar Coin (USDC) remained unchanged at $1.00 each.
By Adedapo Adesanya
Oil prices settled higher amid lingering worries about a possible US military strike against Iran, a decision that may still occur over the weekend.
Brent crude settled at $64.13 a barrel after going up by 37 cents or 0.58 per cent and the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude finished at $59.44 a barrel after it gained 25 cents or 0.42 per cent.
The US Navy’s aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln was expected to arrive in the Persian Gulf next week after operating in the South China Sea.
Market analysts noted that it doesn’t seem likely anything will happen soon. However, the weekends have become the perfect time for actions so as not offset the markets.
The market had risen after protests flared up in Iran and US President Donald Trump signalled the potential for military strikes, but lost over 4 per cent on Thursday as the American president said Iran’s crackdown on the protesters was easing, allaying concerns of possible military action that could disrupt oil supplies.
Iran produces approximately 3.2 million barrels per day, accounting for roughly 4 per cent of global crude production, so it was not a coincidence that markets rallied sharply through Tuesday and Wednesday as President Trump canceled meetings with Iranian officials and posted that “help is on its way” to Iranian protesters, raising fears of potential US military strikes that sent prices surging toward multi-month highs.
Weighing against those fears are potential supply increases from Venezuela.
The Trump administration is exploring plans to swap heavy Venezuelan crude for US medium sour barrels that can actually go straight into Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) caverns, since not all all oil belongs in the reserve.
According to Reuters, the Department of Energy is considering moving Venezuelan heavy crude into commercial storage at the Louisiana Offshore Oil Port, while US producers deliver medium sour crude into the SPR in exchange.
Analysts expect higher supply this year, potentially creating a ceiling for the geopolitical risk premium on prices.
Some investors covered short positions ahead of the three-day Martin Luther King holiday weekend in the US.
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