Economy
World Bank Projects 22.1% Inflation for Nigeria in 2025
By Adedapo Adesanya
Nigeria’s inflation rate is projected to average 22.1 per cent in 2025, according to the World Bank.
The global lender disclosed this in a statement published Monday on its website, following the formal launch of the latest Nigeria Development Update (NDU) report in Abuja.
It noted that this is as the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN’s) tight monetary stance begins to anchor inflation expectations and restore confidence in macroeconomic management.
The biannual report, titled Building Momentum for Inclusive Growth, assesses recent economic trends and policy responses in Nigeria, with a focus on how to consolidate stability and stimulate inclusive growth.
According to the World Bank, while Nigeria’s economic indicators are showing signs of improvement, particularly growth, revenue, and fiscal balance, price pressures remain elevated.
“The report further adds that Inflation has remained high and sticky but is expected to fall to an annual average of 22.1% in 2025, as a sustained tight stance firmly establishes monetary policy credibility and dampens inflationary expectations,” the statement read.
Nigeria’s inflation has been driven by the removal of fuel subsidies, exchange rate unification, high logistics and energy costs, and food supply disruptions.
However, the report noted that recent monetary tightening by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) is beginning to slow inflation momentum.
Recall that Nigeria earlier this year rebased its Consumer Price Index (CPI) updating the base year to 2024 from 2009. As a result the inflation dropped to 24.48 per cent in January 2025 from December 34.80 per cent.
In February, the rate slowed to 23.18 per cent and then increased to 24.23 per cent in March 2025.
The NDU also noted that Nigeria’s economy grew by 4.6 per cent year-on-year in Q4 2024, pushing full-year growth to 3.4 per cent, the strongest non-COVID performance since 2014.
The country’s fiscal deficit narrowed significantly from 5.4 per cent of GDP in 2023 to 3.0 per cent in 2024, supported by a surge in consolidated government revenues from N16.8 trillion (7.2 per cent of GDP) in 2023 to an estimated N31.9 trillion (11.5 per cent of GDP) in 2024.
The World Bank said the improving macroeconomic outlook now presents Nigeria with a “historic opportunity” to reposition public spending and deliver meaningful development outcomes.
“Nigeria has made impressive strides to restore macroeconomic stability. With the improvement in the fiscal situation, Nigeria now has a historic opportunity to improve the quantity and quality of development spending; investing more in human capital, social protection, and infrastructure,” said Mr Taimur Samad, Acting World Bank Country Director for Nigeria.
He added that public resource allocation must shift away from previous unsustainable patterns and instead address the country’s significant development gaps.
The NDU recommended a private sector-led growth strategy that focuses on improving infrastructure, increasing access to finance, enhancing competition, and undertaking reforms in productive sectors to support job creation and inclusive development.
Economy
Tinubu Tasks Oyedele with Fiscal Reforms as Minister of State for Finance
By Adedapo Adesanya
President Bola Tinubu has sworn in Mr Taiwo Oyedele as the new Minister of State for Finance, tasking him with fiscal reforms aimed at improving government revenue and strengthening Nigeria’s economic management framework.
He took his oath of office before the President at the Presidential Villa, Abuja, on Monday.
President Tinubu nominated Mr Oyedele for the new role on March 3, 2026, to replace Mrs Doris Uzoka-Anite, who was moved to serve as the Minister of State for Budget and National Planning.
On March 11, the Senate confirmed him after a screening session, where the tax expert pledged to pursue fiscal reforms aimed at improving government revenue, ensuring realistic budgeting, and strengthening Nigeria’s economic management framework.
He was cleared by the lawmakers through a voice vote at the Committee of the Whole, after hours of screening.
Mr Oyedele, the former chairman of the Presidential Committee on Fiscal Policy and Tax Reforms, described his nomination as a call to serve Nigeria.
“With over two decades of experience working with national governments, multilateral institutions, and global corporations, my journey across the private sector, academia, and public policy has focused on fiscal governance and economic transformation.
“However, this moment is not about personal accomplishments; it is a call to serve at a critical time when Nigeria faces significant fiscal challenges and remarkable opportunities,” the 50-year-old said in the upper chamber.
He said his decades-long experience working on “global reforms regarding the ease of doing business and taxation across 180 countries” had prepared him for the role.
“I feel my background has prepared me to help my country by understanding what works globally and how to apply those lessons to our unique context,” Mr Oyedele added.
The public policy expert, accountant, and economist was appointed by the President to chair the tax reform committee in July 2023.
This led to the creation of four bills: the Nigeria Tax Bill, the Nigeria Tax Administration Bill, the Nigeria Revenue Service (Establishment) Bill, and the Joint Revenue Board (Establishment) Bill were passed by the National Assembly last year after months of extensive debates and controversies, and assented to by Tinubu on June 26, 2025.
The former fiscal policy partner and Africa tax leader at PriceWaterhouseCoopers (PwC) attended Yaba College of Technology and bagged a Higher National Diploma (HND) in Accountancy and Finance.
Mr Oyedele also earned a BSc in applied accounting from Oxford Brookes University.
His academic journey saw him study at the London School of Economics, Yale University, the Gordon Institute of Business Science, and the Harvard Kennedy School, where he completed executive education programmes.
The ministerial nominee worked for decades with PWC, having started his career at the organisation in 2001.
He is a professor at Babcock University in Ogun State as well as a visiting scholar at the Lagos Business School.
Economy
Fears Over Impact on African Nations if Iran War Drags on
CNN’s Larry Madowo reports that oil price spikes triggered by the war with Iran could have a catastrophic impact on African nations. Even Africa’s most advanced economy, South Africa, is exposed to the oil price shocks, which could cause higher fuel costs, rising inflation and renewed pressure on currencies.
The government in Kenya is reassuring citizens that there are no immediate fears of a fuel shortage, and prices have not spiked. Many Governments across Africa are reassuring their citizens that they have stocks to last them for the time being. But they can’t make long-term guarantees because many African nations depend on imported refined petroleum from the Gulf.
This conflict just crossed the 12-day mark, and economist Kwame Owino tells Madowo that African nations should start preparing for a catastrophic scenario, “while no African countries are directly involved in the conflict, we still suffer quite substantially. Governments need to adjust. So, for instance, the government of Kenya has some of the highest taxes globally on fuel prices, so adjusting fiscal policy to allow for greater affordability is important, even if it means that the government will have a lower take.”
Africa’s most advanced economy, South Africa, is one of those exposed to the oil price shocks. One South African airline, Flysafair, announced it would be adding a temporary dynamic fuel surcharge after jet fuel prices rose by 70% in one week at South African airports. Other airlines, including national carrier South African Airways, said they were monitoring prices.
Nigeria is Africa’s most populous nation and one of the largest economies. It is also a crude oil producer, so it’s likely to cash in on the increase in global oil prices. But Nigeria still imports refined petroleum, so it is not immune to the shocks that the global markets are seeing.
The bigger picture here is that African economies are more fragile than stronger, more advanced economies. Owino says, “These economies are small and fragile. They are dependent on those imports. So, when there’s a global conflict, it affects these economies. And African economies also tend to recover slowly, much slower to have a slower path of recovery.”
Fuel prices are holding steady right now. But if the conflict with Iran drags on, just about everything here in Kenya and across the African continent will get more expensive, adding more pain for African consumers.
Economy
Nigeria’s Headline Inflation Eases to 15.06%
By Adedapo Adesanya
Nigeria’s headline inflation rate moderated marginally by 0.04 per cent to 15.06 per cent in February 2026 from 15.10 per cent in January 2026.
This information was contained in the latest data of the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on Monday.
It was revealed that the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which measures changes in the average price level of goods and services, rose to 130.0 in February from 127.4 in the preceding month, representing a 2.6-point increase.
On a month-on-month basis, however, inflationary pressures accelerated.
The headline inflation rate stood at 2.01 per cent in February 2026, marking a sharp increase of 4.89 percentage points compared to the -2.88 per cent recorded in January 2026.
At 15.06 per cent, the print is higher than analysts’ expectations. Coronation Research projected over the weekend that the inflation rate for the month under review would moderate by 0.98 per cent to 14.12 per cent.
“Our projection is supported by favourable base effects, easing food price pressures, and slight appreciation of the Naira,” a part of the report said.
The organisation revealed that ongoing government interventions in the agricultural sector to improve food supply conditions were beginning to ease pressures within the food component of the consumer basket.
It further stated that “appreciation of the Naira to N1,363.40/1$ from N1,386.55/1$ in January is expected to reduce the cost of imported food items.”
However, it stressed that the ongoing US/Israel-Iran war was capable of reversing the deflationary trends because of the rising global energy prices.
The marginal moderation further lends credence to the 50-basis-point cut in interest rate at the 304th Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) to 26.50 per cent from 27 per cent.
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