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Tax, Inflation, and Still Broke: The Economic Divide

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Chiamaka Happiness Madueke Economic divide

By Chiamaka Happiness Madueke

What’s worse than being taxed? Being taxed invisibly and twice.

When the government tightens monetary policy; hikes taxes, and removes subsidies, all in one breath, you would expect the economy to breathe easier. But in Nigeria, the air seems to feel thinner.

Over the past few years, Nigeria has embraced a series of bold economic reforms; floating the Naira, removing fuel subsidies, and pushing revenue generation targets. These actions can generally signal fiscal discipline and long-term growth.

For example, the Nigerian government reportedly saved N3.6 trillion from subsidy removal in just the second half of 2023, but beneath the policy headlines lies a quieter story: one where debt servicing, inflation, taxation, and informal charges collide to create an invisible burden on everyday transactions.

Yes, between visible taxes, invisible inflation, and unofficial levies collected by everyone and no one, low-income Nigerians allegedly seem trapped in a system that squeezes them from every direction.

Let me digress for a second, but I’ll bring it back in a bit, I promise.

At first glance, taxation and inflation may seem like two separate forces: one a fiscal tool, the other a macroeconomic consequence. But in Nigeria’s current climate, they’re colliding in real time, shaping the daily experience of citizens and businesses alike.

The Taxation Puzzle

Nigeria’s tax-to-GDP ratio remains among the lowest globally; just 10.86 per cent as of 2022, according to the Federal Inland Revenue Service (FIRS). That’s well below the 15–25 per cent global average, and even lower than the African average. Yet, the informal economy, which contributes nearly 58 per cent to GDP, bears much of the untracked tax burden through local levies and fees.

This mismatch reveals a chronic revenue problem and this challenge becomes even more critical when you consider the growing cost of debt. But borrowing isn’t inherently bad; in fact, strategic debt can stimulate growth if channelled into things like power, roads, manufacturing, or digital infrastructure, projects that have a way of boosting the economy.

In an interview with Arise News, the CEO of Sterling Bank, Mr Abubakar Suleiman, said, “If you are not collecting enough revenue to service a debt, that is a problem”. But it is even worse when you’re not using that debt for productive, economic reasons; that’s a structural problem.

Then I ran the numbers, in 2022, Nigeria reportedly spent a large per cent of its revenue on debt servicing. That means most of what we earn do not go to schools, hospitals, or industrial development, they go to paying back interest. That’s like living on a credit card and using it to buy lunch, not build a business that would make profit.

In 2023, 64.5 per cent of the federal government’s total revenue was used for debt servicing, according to a BusinessDay analysis of data from the Budget Office.

Although this was higher than the 48.5 per cent in 2022, it was still less than the 71.8 per cent in 2021. In 2023, actual revenue was N11.88 trillion, slightly above the predicted N11.05 trillion, while actual debt service costs were N7.66 trillion, 16.9 per cent higher than the projected N6.56 trillion.

In comparison, Nigeria’s revenue for the fiscal year 2022 was N7.76 trillion, falling short of the N9.97 trillion projection. The fact that debt servicing increased to N3.76 trillion from an anticipated N3.69 trillion in spite of this shortfall shows that debt obligations are an unavoidable burden even in cases where revenues are below budget.

This pattern emphasizes how little financial flexibility the government has, particularly when it comes to financing infrastructure or social projects.

By September 30, 2024, Nigeria’s total public debt had climbed to N142.3 trillion, reflecting a N8.02 trillion increase from N134.3 trillion in June 2024. This 5.97 per cent rise was attributed not only to additional borrowing but also to the depreciation of the Naira, which significantly inflated the naira value of external debt.

The surge in debt has not been matched by a proportional increase in productive investment, raising questions about the sustainability and strategic intent of government borrowing.

Adding to the concern, the total debt service cost reached an estimated N3.57 trillion in just the third quarter of 2024 alone.

With limited income from formal taxation, the government allegedly struggles to adequately fund infrastructure, education, healthcare, and essential services.

In response, efforts are underway to:

  • Widen the tax base by formalizing more of the informal sector,
  • Improve compliance through digital platforms and data integration,
  • Rationalize outdated and inefficient tax incentives.

However, increasing tax pressure and its enforcement especially now can be politically unpopular and economically dangerous. Why? Because inflation is already eating through household budgets.

The Inflation Squeeze

Nigeria’s inflation rate has remained stubbornly high, largely driven by the rising cost of food prices, currency depreciation, removal of fuel subsidy and Monetary policies like floating the Naira.

As of early 2024, inflation was between 28–30 per cent, with core inflation also climbing. This diminishes buying power, worsens poverty, and increases the expenses of conducting business.

Essentially, inflation operates as an unnoticed tax, one that hits the vulnerable the hardest, especially low and middle-income earners whose wages aren’t keeping pace.

One key statement caught my attention in recent times, “We must choose between Taxation or Inflation.”

At first, that sounded a bit extreme. But the more I thought about it, the more it made sense.

Taxation is visible, structured, and can be progressive. Inflation, on the other hand, is unpredictable and regressive, a silent thief that spares no one, but affects the poor more because they have less to spend.

For low-income Nigerians, a controlled tax system paired with targeted public investment, might be more manageable than the current wave of inflation that raises the price of garri, beans, and palm oil every other week for Aunty Onyeka and thousands like her.

The “Other” Taxes We Don’t Talk About

But this brings me to a creeping question. What about the unofficial taxes? The ones no one talks about?

How are the indirect taxes collected from public transporters by local levy collectors accounted for? The levies collected from Mama Basirat who hawks around Oshodi market selling cooked food has watched the price of palm oil jump three times in six months while still paying a N500 “market ticket” every morning before selling a single plate of rice. Who tracks that revenue?

Yes, the most shocking revelation for me has been realizing that even hawkers – hawkers, who sell sachet water or fruit walking down roads and the street corners are being taxed in some areas.

Or rather, charged daily levies by local agents. And no, I am not condemning that, just that this issue raises some serious questions in my head:

  • Where does this money go?
  • Is it remitted to any official government account?
  • What public service is being provided in return?

If we zoom out, the irony becomes obvious. We keep saying Nigeria’s tax-to-GDP ratio is too low. Yet, many of the poorest Nigerians are already being taxed, just not in ways that show up in FIRS data.

They’re taxed by local councils, market unions, transport associations, and sometimes even self-appointed local revenue agents. Is this form of taxation? It’s neither progressive nor transparent, nor accountable.

So, What Are We Really Talking About?

When we push for increasing tax revenue, we often picture corporate profits or high-net-worth individuals. But the reality? Many of the levies, fees, and informal charges disproportionately hit those in the informal sector; drivers, traders, hawkers, the same people inflation is already punishing the most. It’s a vicious cycle.

Drivers hike transport fares to meet the levies. Hawkers bump up prices to stay afloat and somewhere in the middle, people start paying more for food, transport, and basic needs. So, yes, taxation may be more beneficial than inflation but only if it’s fair, formal, and genuinely

used to improve lives. Until then, we seem to remain stuck in a system where the poorest pay the most, twice over: Once through rising prices that their income can barely meet, and again through levies that don’t even show up in the books. The informal sector is already contributing indirectly through taxes and levies. But where that money goes, that’s the real mystery.

The discussion about taxation in Nigeria must expand beyond the official tax system to consider these informal levies. And that, more than anything, is what really got my thinking juices flowing.

Maybe the conversation shouldn’t just be about taxing more, but taxing better, and ensuring value for those already overburdened.

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Na 2027 We Go Chop?

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2027 elections Nigeria

By Tony Ogunlowo

All the talk in the political arena, right now, is about the elections in 2027, two years away: how Tinubu is going to win a second term in office or how a coalition fronting Peter Obi or Atiku is going to unseat him.

The year 2027 is still a good two years away and what the President was [supposedly] elected to do in his first term he hasn’t even scratched the surface of it apart from indulging in the usual blame-game on his predecessor, complaining about lack of funds and presiding over party-in fighting. Just like Nero played the fiddle while Rome burned he still manages to go on long foreign holidays oblivious to what is going on in the country.

Politicians in Nigeria seem to forget, very quickly, why they were voted into office in the first place: they are there to serve the needs of the people, not to enrich themselves, legally or illegally, not to make a name for themselves and certainly not to ignore the needs – and security – of the people who voted them into power.

The average politician is of “…anywhere belle face…”, which is to say for me, me and myself: no morals, no principles and no integrity. They jump ship quite often and ‘if ‘lagbaja’ is paying then I’m joining his party’ which will explain the mass exodus of governors, senators and other politicians decamping to the ruling APC party, risking the nation fast becoming a one-party state.

As we’ve seen from history one-party states don’t work: it only promotes corruption, inefficiency and cronyism. The old USSR collapsed for the simple reason the party fat cats were more concerned about maintaining their bourgeoisie lifestyles than looking after their people: they forgot what they were there for. The same is happening in Nigeria now.

How much does a ‘congo’ of rice or garri cost? Or a tray of eggs? How much does it cost to fill up your car tank, if you can? Or how much is your electricity bill, even though you didn’t get any power? And what about security? What’s to say you won’t be robbed, kidnapped or killed tomorrow when you are out and about? This and a multitude of other problems is what is happening on the streets of Nigeria on a daily basis. Of course, the high and mighty and politicians live in their high walled private estates with fresh food flown in from abroad weekly, armed guards to watch over them and totally oblivious to what’s going on around them.

There has been no improvement on the situation and things are only getting worse. Sadly, the only thing on your average politician’s mind is how he/she is going to get re/elected in 2027 by crook or by hook and they got a slew of PR experts and marketing gurus to come up with new campaign slogans and a basket-full of promises they’ll never fulfil. In a sane climate if a politician is doing the job he was elected to do to the people’s satisfaction, in the first place, he wouldn’t have to worry about re-election: the people would vote him in willingly.

When you’re employed by a company, for instance, you’ll be subject to weekly, monthly or quarterly assessments by your immediate superior. You are expected to hit certain targets and if your performance falls below what is expected of you you’ll be fired! Why can’t the same rule apply to our politicians? If you don’t do what we expect from you, you are out at the next election. Performance is the key word here and this is how it should be. But come the next election and the starving, belittled, abused, unemployed, sick and endangered people will still vote for the incumbent President despite the fact he’s done nothing proactively to turn things around in his first term, as his predecessor did nothing and as his predecessor did nothing…should I continue to go backwards in time? People seem to have a very short memory until the hardship kicks in.

The Chinese say “..a journey of a thousand miles begins with a single step..”, Nigeria’s problems, as gargantuan as they are, can only end when politicians put their selfish interests aside and make a conscious effort to start changing things, a step at a time. Start with tackling the high cost of living. Remember a hungry man is an angry man. Try by making the basic things in life such as food, fuel and electricity affordable: empty promises don’t fill a hungry man’s stomach it only fuels dissent.

And the people have themselves to blame too, why vote in a person who’s going to do nothing for four years and vote him in again?

Itsbeggar’s belief.

So why all the politicians are fretting about themselves, stabbing each other in the back in an attempt to get re-elected, I simply ask ‘na 2027 we go chop?’(-if only it were possible!). Very soon the slogan ‘ebi pa wa o’(we are hungry) will become the new national anthem hopefully forcing politicians to forget their obsession with the 2027 elections and do something….perhaps!

You can follow Tony Ogunlowo on Twitter: @Archangel641 or visit http://www.archangel641.blogspot.co.uk

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Of Mandate Group, Delta Unity Group and Delta 2027

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Delta Unity Group

By Jerome-Mario Utomi

The April 12, 2025, defection of members of the Delta Unity Group (DUG) to the All Progressive Congress (APC) signposts a major political shift in Delta’s politics.

Pundits believe that the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) which presently controls the state needs a miracle to win Delta’s 2027 governorship election given the massive haemorrhage that has hit it. Essentially, the over 10,000 members of the DUG and their supporters who defected to the APC were made up of seasoned grassroots PDP chieftains.

The defectors were received by the National Chairman of the All-Progressive Congress (APC), Mr Abdullahi Umar Ganduje, Governor Monday Okpebholo of Edo State, and the Chairman of the Governing Board of the Niger Delta Development Commission (NDDC), Mr Chiedu Ebie, alongside other notable political figures in Delta State.

So far, Deltans are enamoured by the significant political shift with many describing the development as a political earthquake which was long overdue. Because of its grassroots orientation, political analysts have likened the DUG to the Mandate Group, an independent political pressure group that midwifed the election of Mr Bola Tinubu, now President, as Lagos State Governor in the late 1990s.

In the run up to the 2023 presidential election, among so many objectives, the group was primed and positioned to defend President Tinubu’s mandate and promote democracy, unity, justice, and liberty in Nigeria, mobilize support for him and Vice President Kashim Shettima’s administration, Promote Unity and Justice: Foster national unity, justice, and liberty for all Nigerians among others.

The Mandate Group which has established structures in all 36 states, with plans to launch state chapters and  currently have 580,000 members in Lagos and aim to reach 40 million members nationwide within the next 12 months, targets  various segments of society, including: Students, Workers, Artisans, Teachers, Fishermen, Farmers and Women.

In like manner, the DUG has emerged as a third force in Delta State politics. Although it is not a new body, it has, over the years, been quietly bestriding Delta’s political landscape for the good of the state. Call it a third force in the politics of Delta State, and you won’t be wrong because, from all ramifications, that is what DUG represents.

DUG is by no means a political party, but, as the name implies, it is a Delta State based political pressure group convened a few years ago by the selfless, foresighted and influential trio of  Mr Olu-Tokunbo (Lulu) Enaboifo, Mr Chiedu Ebie and Sir Itiako (Malik) Ikpokpo.

Their aim and dream were to establish a political pressure group with an agenda to modernize Delta State and also serve as the brain box of the campaign platform of Olorogun David Edevbie, who was vying for the governorship candidate of PDP towards the 2023 gubernatorial election.

Even though the aspiration ended with the Supreme Court ruling in favour of Governor Sheriff Oborevwori of Delta State, the DUG remained a strong force that started building gradually on the dream of a modernized Delta State. DUG has an organizational structure of 17 National Executive Council members, a Board of Trustees, and Local Government Executives in all the 25 local governments in Delta State, with Ward Executives in all the wards across Delta State, DUG is deeply rooted in the grassroots of Delta State with its cell-like structures.

Prior to the 2023 election, a wing of DUG, at the Obinoba Declaration, crossed over to APC, where the APC governorship candidate, Mr Ovie Omo-Agege, described them as the intelligent wing of PDP.

The group significantly made a huge difference in the 2023 general elections in Delta State. The DUG members in the Delta North Senatorial District, at that point in time, remained with PDP and after full deliberation and strategizing, opted to support the candidature of the APC governorship candidate and all other candidates of APC, even though they had not formally left the PDP. Consequently, most of them were either suspended or cast away by PDP after the elections.

It was easy to blend and work harmoniously with the progressives due to the progressive mindset of DUG members. After the 2023 general elections in Delta State, DUG members of Ika Federal Constituency continued to align and work closely with the APC to strengthen the party and ensure that it is properly positioned to convert the Ika Federal Constituency to an APC constituency come 2027.

To the glory of God, President Tinubu found DUG’s co-founder/convener, Mr Ebie, fit to chair the Governing Board of the NDDC in 2023. This further gave the DUG more vigor to project the Renewed Hope Agenda of the progressive governance of Mr President. Following this appointment, Ika Federal Constituency became the heartbeat of DUG in Delta State, which has now radiated positively to Ndokwa/Ukwuani and Aniocha/Oshimili Federal Constituencies in Delta North.

This wave, which has led to the massive decamping of members of PDP and the Labour Party into DUG in preparation for absorption into the APC, has also witnessed the reactivation of some dormant APC ambers and the massive welcoming of previously non-partisan and newly retired civil servants into the APC, having witnessed the positive impact of the Renewed Hope Agenda of Mr. President.

Because the group was fully poised for the reconfiguration of Delta State in the progressive fold of the APC, it is therefore, not surprising to witness the humongous crowd that emptied into APC on 12th day of April, 2025 in Agbor, Ika Federal Constituency, Delta State.

Going by the above development, it is obvious that come 2027, Ika nation in particular and Deltans in general shall witness the dethronement of People’s Democratic Party, PDP, in the state and enthronement of a people focused leadership to be formed by the All Progressive Congress, APC, in line with President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s Renewed Hope Agenda.

Utomi, a media specialist, writes from Lagos, Nigeria. He can be reached via [email protected]/08032725374

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Piracy in Africa’s Creative Sector: How Creators Can Protect Their Content

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Creators Can Protect Their Content

Africa’s creative industries, from music and film to fashion, writing, and branding, are experiencing remarkable growth. However, as the sector flourishes, so do the threats posed by piracy and copyright infringement. Without proper protection, creators risk losing the value and recognition they deserve for their original work.

Copyright remains the first and most important line of defence. In many African countries, copyright protection begins automatically once a creative work, such as a song, logo, film, or design, is fixed in a tangible form. This protection can last for the creator’s lifetime, and in most cases, up to 70 years after. Yet, while automatic copyright provides a foundation, official registration strengthens legal standing and can be critical in resolving disputes.

When a creator’s work is used without permission, the violation must be addressed swiftly. Experts advise that the first step is to gather evidence—screenshots, URLS, timestamps, user details, and even data showing engagement or financial gain from the misused content. Proof of ownership, such as original files with timestamps, draft versions, or social media records of earlier uploads, is equally vital.

“Creators should always have proof of ownership ready,” says Frikkie Jonker, Director of Anti-Piracy at MultiChoice. “That could be anything from original project files to old emails or posts. It’s one of the most effective tools in enforcing your rights.”

Once evidence is collected, creators can issue takedown requests through social platforms or send formal cease-and-desist letters to website owners or hosts. Although enforcement processes differ by country, most African nations have copyright laws aligned with global standards like the U.S. DMCA. In many cases, showing credible ownership is enough to have infringing content removed.

If infringement continues or is being done at scale, such as by piracy rings or repeat offenders, creators may need to escalate the issue by reporting it to national copyright commissions or law enforcement. Efforts are also being bolstered across the continent through cooperation under agreements like the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), with international bodies like Interpol, Afripol, and WIPO supporting cross-border enforcement.

Preventative measures are just as important. Creators are encouraged to use tools like digital watermarking and content fingerprinting to protect their work from unauthorised use online. Furthermore, smart monetisation strategies, such as YouTube’s Content ID syste,m can allow creators to earn revenue even when their content is reused without prior permission.

By understanding their rights, taking proactive steps to protect their creations, and using available technologies, African creatives can safeguard their work while continuing to build sustainable, long-term careers.

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