Economy
World Bank Urges Tinubu to Implement Cash Transfer Programme
By Adedapo Adesanya
The World Bank, through its Country Director for Nigeria, Mr Shubham Chaudhuri, has tasked the new administration of President Bola Tinubu to initiate critical reforms to address macroeconomic imbalances, including a cash transfer programme.
This was disclosed in the June 2023 Nigeria Development Update (NDU) titled Seizing the Opportunity, released by the Bretton Woods lender.
Mr Chaudri said, “Nigeria should now seize the opportunity to implement a robust, large-scale cash transfer programme to provide quick relief to the poor, near poor, as well as low-income households which are most directly affected by higher petrol prices, as part of a broader compact to redirect scarce fiscal resources towards development priorities”.
He noted that, “The current move by the government to implement long-anticipated reforms such as the removal of costly and opaque petrol subsidy, and efforts to harmonize the multiple FX windows, are timely and crucial to set Nigeria on the path of economic growth.
“These reforms should be accompanied by compensatory actions to mitigate the short-term impact on the poor.”
The bank noted that the removal of the petrol subsidy and foreign exchange (FX) management reforms are crucial measures to begin to rebuild fiscal space and restore macroeconomic stability, and the opportunity should be seized to take further necessary policy reform steps.
According to the World Bank, this window of opportunity could have a transformative impact on the lives of millions of Nigerians and establish a solid foundation for sustainable and inclusive growth.
The lender added that it is critical to implement a comprehensive reform package that encompasses a range of complementary measures, including a new social compact to protect the poor and most vulnerable, to maximize the collective impact on growth, job creation, and poverty reduction.
The World Bank highlighted that the first part of 2023, Nigeria’s economic growth weakened, and real gross domestic product (GDP) growth fell from 3.3 per cent in 2022 to 2.4 per cent year-on-year in Q1 2023.
Despite the challenging global economic environment putting pressure on Nigeria’s economy, domestic policies play a major role in determining Nigeria’s economic performance and resilience to further external shocks.
“The previous mix of fiscal, monetary, and exchange rate policies, including the naira redesign program, did not deliver the desired improvements in growth, inflation, and economic resilience.
“The new government has recognized the need to chart a new course and has already made a start on critical reforms, such as the elimination of the petrol subsidy and reforms in the FX market,” the update noted.
The World Bank noted that with the petrol subsidy removal, the government is projected to achieve fiscal savings of approximately N2 trillion in 2023, equivalent to 0.9 per cent of GDP.
These savings are expected to reach over N11 trillion by the end of 2025.
“However, compensating transfers will be essential to help shield the most vulnerable Nigerian households from the initial price impacts of the subsidy reform, as without compensation, many households could be pushed into poverty by higher petrol prices and have to resort to coping mechanisms with long-term adverse consequences,” it noted.
Similarly, the move to harmonize the FX windows will help to improve the efficiency of the FX market, unlock private investment, and reduce inflationary pressures, but it is crucial to complete this important reform by removing FX restrictions, clearly communicating how the new FX regime will operate, and implementing supportive monetary and fiscal policies.
The report recommends specific, critical measures to build on the new government’s bold start in making critical reforms to ensure that Nigeria rises to its full potential.
These include: restoring macroeconomic stability by increasing non-oil revenue, reducing inflation through a sequenced and coordinated mix of trade, monetary and fiscal policies, and completing the FX reform; expanding social protection to protect the poor and most vulnerable, and developing and communicating how, as fiscal space recovers, resources will be redirected over time to meet urgent development challenges.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The NASD Over-the-Counter (OTC) Securities Exchange closed higher by 1.41 per cent on Friday, May 15, supported by four securities on the platform.
During the session, FrieslandCampina Wamco Plc added N14.24 to its share price to sell for N159.00 per unit, in contrast to the previous day’s N144.76 per unit.
Further, Central Securities and Clearing System (CSCS) Plc appreciated by N1.34 to N72.34 per share from N71.00 per share, Geo-Fluids Plc improved its price by 4 Kobo to N2.94 per unit from N2.90 per unit, and Industrial and General Insurance (IGI) Plc gained 1 Kobo to trade at 61 Kobo per share compared with Thursday’s closing price of 60 Kobo per share.
As a result, the NASD Unlisted Security Index (NSI) rose by 58.20 points to 4,188.41 points from 4,130.21 points, and the market capitalisation soared by N34.82 billion to N2.506 trillion from N2.471 trillion on Thursday.
During the session, the volume of trades went up by 180.8 per cent to 1.2 million units from 417,349 units, and the value of transactions increased by 29.8 per cent to N29.8 million from N23.2 million, while the number of deals fell by 22.6 per cent to 24 deals from 31 deals.
Great Nigeria Insurance (GNI) Plc ended the day as the most traded stock by value on a year-to-date basis with 3.4 billion units sold for N8.4 billion, followed by CSCS Plc with 60.8 million units exchanged for N4.1 billion, and Okitipupa Plc with 27.9 million units valued at N1.9 billion.
GNI Plc also closed the session as the most traded stock by volume on a year-to-date basis with 3.4 billion units worth N8.4 billion, followed by Resourcery Plc with 1.1 billion units transacted for N415.7 million, and Infrastructure Guarantee Credit Plc with 400 million units traded for N1.2 billion.
By Dipo Olowookere
The bears overpowered the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited on Friday, sinking it further by 0.76 per cent when the closing gong was struck by 4 pm.
The nation’s flagship equity market was under selling pressure during the session, as investors booked profits after the shares witnessed price appreciation in the past trading sessions.
The energy sector was the most impacted, as it shed 4.43 per cent. The consumer goods index declined by 0.90 per cent, the banking counter decreased by 0.15 per cent, and the industrial goods sector lost 0.08 per cent, while the insurance counter gained 2.42 per cent, which was not enough to salvage the situation.
Consequently, the All-Share Index (ASI) contracted by 1,912.19 points to 250,330.92 points from 252,243.11 points, and the market capitalisation moderated by 1.225 trillion to N160.444 trillion from N161.669 trillion.
Zichis was the worst-performing stock for the session after it gave up 9.97 per cent to close at N29.43, FTN Cocoa slipped by 9.95 per cent to N8.96, The Initiates slumped by 9.90 per cent to N32.30, LivingTrust Mortgage Bank tumbled by 9.88 per cent to N3.83, and International Energy Insurance dropped 9.71 per cent to trade at N2.79.
The best-performing stock was ABC Transport, which grew by 10.00 per cent to N6.27. May and Baker also appreciated by 10.00 per cent to N47.30, SCOA Nigeria surged by 9.98 per cent to N33.05, Trans-Nationwide Express expanded by 9.97 per cent to N7.06, and DAAR Communications jumped 9.76 per cent to N2.25.
Yesterday, investors traded 1.1 billion shares worth N44.3 billion in 65,744 deals compared with the 1.0 billion shares valued at N41.6 billion transacted in 74,822 deals a day earlier. This indicated a dip in the number of deals by 12.13 per cent, and a rise in the trading volume and value by 10.00 per cent and 6.49 per cent, respectively.
Chams was the busiest equity for the day, with 328.5 million units sold for N1.1 billion. UBA traded 61.6 million units worth N2.7 billion, First Holdco transacted 58.7 million units valued at N4.2 billion, Secure Electronic Technology exchanged 51.9 million units worth N45.0 million, and Access Holdings traded 51.8 million units valued at N1.3 billion.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The last trading session of the week at the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEX) ended on a negative note for the Naira on Friday, May 15, as it lost N15 Kobo or 0.1 per cent against the Dollar to trade at N1,371.04/$1 compared with the previous day’s N1,370.89/$1.
However, it further appreciated against the Pound Sterling in the same market segment yesterday by N20.77 to close at N1,830.61/£1 versus Thursday’s value of N1,851.38/£1, and gained N7.91 against the Euro to settle at N1,595.07/€1 versus N1,602.98/€1.
At the GTBank FX desk, the Naira lost N2 against the US Dollar during the session to sell at N1,383/$1 compared with the preceding session’s N1,381/$1, and at the black market, it remained unchanged at N1,385/$1.
The Naira is forecast to be broadly stable, supported by Dollar sales by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) amid steady, higher oil receipts, with the market settling into a balance.
Policy direction is also expected to give the market some boost as the CBN said the new edition of the FX market guidelines will deepen liquidity, improve transparency and strengthen confidence in the country’s foreign exchange market.
According to the Governor of the CBN, Mr Yemi Cardoso, the update is due to changing global economic realities, domestic reforms and the need for a more coherent and forward-looking regulatory framework. According to him, the last edition of the FX manual was issued in 2018, making the latest review both timely and necessary.
Meanwhile, the cryptocurrency market plunged into the red zone as rising bond yields hit risk assets across markets, while traders are increasingly betting the Federal Reserve may need to raise rates again. Rising energy prices and resurging inflation could force central banks back into tightening mode.
Cardano (ADA) shrank by 4.4 per cent to $0.2557, Dogecoin (DOGE) slid by 3.7 per cent to $0.1104, Ripple (XRP) depreciated by 3.5 per cent to $1.41, Solana (SOL) crashed by 3.5 per cent to $87.81, and Binance Coin (BNB) slumped by 3.4 per cent to $659.64.
Further, Bitcoin (BTC) declined by 2.6 per cent to $78,547.49, Ethereum (ETH) lost 2.1 per cent to quote at $2,209.19, and TRON (TRX) tumbled by 0.7 per cent to $0.3509, while the US Dollar Tether (USDT) and the US Dollar Coin (USDC) traded flat at $1.00 each.
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