Feature/OPED
A Gallows Called Northern Nigeria
By Sani Abdulrazak, PhD
Believe whatever you want, but this government was not, is not, and sadly will not be serious about securing the lives and properties of Nigerians, which is its core and fundamental responsibility, unless citizens demand accountability and consequences for failure. Whatever they say is far from the reality on the ground. More troubling is the apparent complacency of many northern elites who seem to believe they are insulated from the insecurity consuming the region. Oh, how mistaken they are. It will surely reach their doorstep if they don’t do something about it; make no mistake about it.
Across Northern Nigeria, insecurity has evolved from a periodic challenge into a defining feature of daily life. Despite rising security expenditures and repeated assurances from those in authority, banditry, insurgency, kidnappings, cattle rustling, and communal conflicts continue to devastate communities. Thousands have lost their lives, countless others have been displaced, and many farming communities have either been abandoned or are operating under constant threat. While political and administrative centres often enjoy relative security, ordinary citizens in rural areas continue to bear the heaviest burden of the crisis. This growing disconnect has reinforced the perception that those in power are detached from the realities confronting the people they govern.
And then came the painful news of General Rabe Abubakar’s death; a tragedy that lays bare the helplessness consuming our region. For nearly two weeks, a retired General and his wife vanished into the shadows of Northern Nigeria, yet the vast security architecture of the state could neither locate nor rescue them. One cannot help but imagine the long, agonising days they endured: waiting, hoping, praying that help was on its way. But help never came. A man who once dedicated his life to defending this nation met his end in captivity, while his loved ones and an anxious public waited for a miracle that never arrived. If a General could disappear for days with no rescue in sight, what hope remains for the ordinary farmer, trader, teacher, or student whose name will never make the headlines? His death is not merely a personal tragedy; it is a haunting symbol of a North where even those who once stood at the pinnacle of the security establishment are no longer beyond the reach of the monster that has been allowed to grow unchecked.
The North has become a giant gallows; If you are residing in Northern Nigeria today, you are just waiting to be killed, somehow, someday…until we radically and collectively take this monster head-on by addressing the issue of out-of-school children, scrapping completely the almajiri system, reviving parental and societal values and responsibilities, enforcing birth control, and creating jobs for our teeming youths via agriculture and by reviving our comatose industries, we will not come out of this madness masked as insurgency, banditry, and kidnappings.
The roots of this crisis run much deeper than the activities of armed groups. Northern Nigeria carries the largest burden of out-of-school children in the country, leaving millions of young people without the education, skills, and opportunities necessary to build productive lives. The Almajiri system, once a respected institution for Islamic learning, has in many places deteriorated into a mechanism that exposes children to neglect, poverty, and exploitation. Thousands of young boys roam the streets without adequate parental care, formal education, or vocational training, making them vulnerable to recruitment by criminal and extremist networks.
Demographic pressure further compounds the problem. Many northern states continue to record high fertility rates while struggling to provide sufficient schools, healthcare services, and employment opportunities. The result is a rapidly expanding youth population confronted by limited prospects and widespread unemployment. In such circumstances, criminal gangs and insurgent groups find a steady pool of recruits. Breaking this cycle requires a comprehensive approach that combines educational expansion, meaningful almajiri reform, responsible family planning, youth empowerment, agricultural development, industrial revival, and targeted vocational training programmes. Security operations may suppress violence temporarily, but only social and economic transformation can remove the conditions that sustain it.
A Gallows Called Arewa
But just like the government, the masses are so not ready; they feign oblivion to the reality facing us. They instead channel their energy and time to ‘trending’ celebrity topics and await the next celebrity nude videos/pictures and chats to aimlessly talk about. The celebrities are only after immorality or waiting to endorse the politicians with the highest bid; the traditional rulers are either afraid or consumed by the menace.
This collective distraction has weakened society’s ability to confront its most pressing challenges. While communities suffer from poverty, violence, and underdevelopment, public discourse is often dominated by trivial controversies. Yet the North has repeatedly demonstrated that communities can mobilise when properly organised. Faith-based groups, youth associations, community leaders, and local organisations have played important roles in peacebuilding and conflict resolution in several areas. Reawakening civic consciousness and redirecting public attention toward education, security, and development must therefore become a priority.
The crisis also demands courage from those traditionally entrusted with providing moral, intellectual, and cultural leadership. At critical moments in our history, influential voices helped shape public opinion, challenge injustice, and mobilise communities toward collective action. Today, however, many of those voices appear either absent, intimidated, or resigned to the status quo, creating a leadership vacuum at a time when Northern Nigeria desperately needs guidance.
Our intellectuals have gone back to their shells, and rightly so. Our elders have done their part and are giving up on us. The most painful part is that our religious leaders, who spent time and energy convincing us that this government would usher in a golden age reminiscent of the Ottoman Empire, have disturbingly gone mute; no Al-Qunuts or warnings to the government anymore, since it is not the government of the fisherman from the creek. It makes one wonder if we are normal in Arewa. The northern elites despise their followers like the Israelis despise the Palestinians. Posterity will surely judge us all, and history will tell how we played our parts in the destruction of our beloved Northern Nigeria.
Religious leaders, elders and intellectuals historically provided mediation, moral authority and local governance where the state was weak. Their retreat may stem from fear, co-optation or the erosion of moral credibility. Re-engagement requires rebuilding trust and protecting civic space: establish formal consultative roles for elders and clerics in security and development planning, fund independent intellectual forums, and create interfaith platforms that can speak to social issues without intimidation. When clerics and scholars mobilise—on health, education or peace—public behaviour and policy often follow; restoring their voice is therefore strategic and urgent.
If you want to see all the ingredients of a doomed people, look no further than Northern Nigeria at the moment. Deepening poverty, educational failure, demographic pressure, weak governance, economic stagnation, and persistent insecurity have combined to create a dangerous reality for the region. Yet history shows that decline is not irreversible. Societies facing similar challenges have transformed themselves through long-term investments in education, economic opportunity, accountable governance, and community-led development. Northern Nigeria can do the same if its leaders and people are willing to confront uncomfortable truths and commit themselves to meaningful reform.
The time for lamentation alone has passed. Northern Nigeria requires a deliberate and measurable programme of recovery that places education, economic empowerment, and community security at its centre. Governments must become more transparent and accountable, traditional and religious leaders must reclaim their moral voice, intellectuals must re-enter public discourse, and citizens must demand better leadership. Only through a collective effort that addresses both the symptoms and the root causes of insecurity can the North begin to reverse its decline and build a future worthy of its people.
Sani Abdulrazak, PhD, is a researcher, writer, and public commentator based in Kaduna State
By Osasikemwen Ighile
For many Nigerian families, the summer holiday is a season of fun, relaxation, and spending quality time together. But with the kids at home, more outings, higher electricity consumption, and extra entertainment costs, it’s also a period when expenses can quietly pile up.
The good news? You don’t have to choose between making memories and managing your finances. With a few smart habits, you can enjoy the holidays while keeping your savings goals on track.
Here are five practical ways to save smarter this summer.
1. Ditch Cash and Spend Smarter
Ever noticed how cash disappears faster than you expected? Whether it’s buying snacks for the kids, paying for transport, or making quick market runs, spending cash can make it difficult to track where your money goes.
Using a debit card can make it easier to track transactions and monitor spending. FairMoney customers can use their debit card for eligible transactions, subject to applicable terms and conditions. You can make payments conveniently at stores, shop online, and easily monitor your transactions. Instead of carrying cash everywhere, you get a clearer picture of your expenses and can avoid unnecessary impulse purchases.
Small changes like this can make a big difference over the course of the holiday.
2. The Kids Are Home—Stay Ahead of Your Utility Bills
School holidays often mean one thing: the TV is almost always on. From cartoons in the morning to football matches in the evening, your cable subscription becomes more important than ever. Add fans, air conditioners, gaming consoles, and other appliances, and it’s easy to see why electricity bills tend to increase during this period.
Rather than waiting until services are disconnected, planning and paying bills on time help households avoid unnecessary late-payment or reconnection charges. FairMoney customers can pay eligible bills and services through the platform, subject to applicable terms and service availability. You can conveniently pay for Cable TV subscriptions, Electricity bills, Internet subscriptions, Airtime and data for the entire family.
Paying bills on time can help reduce the risk of late payment consequences or applicable reconnection charges. Summer is filled with birthdays, outings, family visits, and spontaneous spending. While these moments are worth enjoying, your savings shouldn’t take a holiday.
3. Enjoy the Holidays—but Don’t Pause Your Savings
A simple strategy is to save first before spending. FairMoney customers can also use eligible savings products, such as FairSave and FairTarget, to set aside money towards specific financial goals, subject to the applicable product terms, conditions and eligibility requirements, even if it’s in small amounts. Already planning for the next school term? FairMoney customers can also use eligible savings products, such as FairSave and FairTarget, to set aside money towards specific financial goals, subject to the applicable product terms, conditions and eligibility requirements. Already planning for the next school term? Consider setting aside money regularly towards your school-fee goal. FairTarget can be used to help you organise savings around specific financial goals, subject to the applicable product terms, conditions and eligibility requirements. By starting early and saving consistently, you can better prepare for school-related expenses when the new term begins.
4. Plan Weekly Family Activities Instead of Daily Spending
The holidays don’t have to be expensive to be memorable. Instead of spending money every day on outings, cinemas, or restaurants, create a simple weekly activity plan. One weekend could be a family movie night at home. Another could be a picnic in a nearby park, a cooking competition, indoor games, or a visit to relatives.
Planning activities ahead helps you control spending while still giving everyone something to look forward to. Sometimes, the best memories cost very little.
5. Buy Household Essentials in Bulk
With everyone at home, groceries seem to disappear twice as fast. Instead of making frequent trips to the store, which often lead to impulse purchases, consider buying regularly used items in bulk.
Depending on the retailer and quantity purchased, some household essentials may offer better value when purchased in bulk.. You’ll spend less on transportation, reduce unplanned shopping, and avoid running out of important items.
Summer should be about creating happy memories not financial headaches. By spending more intentionally, paying your bills on time, planning ahead, and staying committed to your savings goals, you can enjoy everything the season has to offer without putting unnecessary pressure on your finances.
A few smart habits today can make the months ahead much easier. And that’s a win for every household.
Osasikemwen Ighile is the Brand Manager for FairMoney Microfinance Bank
Feature/OPED
Beyond the Screen: How Sports and Entertainment Keep Nigeria’s Economy Moving
When we talk about Nigeria’s economy, the conversation usually centres on oil and gas, banking, agriculture, manufacturing and technology. But there is another industry quietly creating jobs and driving economic activity: entertainment and sports. Most times, we only see the finished product. We watch the show, cheer during the match and move on to the […]
When we talk about Nigeria’s economy, the conversation usually centres on oil and gas, banking, agriculture, manufacturing and technology. But there is another industry quietly creating jobs and driving economic activity: entertainment and sports. Most times, we only see the finished product. We watch the show, cheer during the match and move on to the next thing. What we do not always see is the amount of work that happens before those moments reach our screens.
Take Big Brother Naija
When viewers tune in and see the housemates moving around the Big Brother house, it is easy to forget that the house itself is a product of many people’s work. From the interior designers and set builders who create the spaces to the electricians, carpenters, painters and technicians who bring them to life, an entire team works behind the scenes before the first episode even begins.
Once the cameras start rolling, the list gets even longer. Producers, directors, camera operators, sound engineers, editors, stylists, makeup artists, caterers, production assistants and security personnel all have a role to play. Then there is everything that happens outside the house. Publicists, photographers, videographers, digital teams, content creators and media platforms all contribute to keeping the conversation going. The housemates may be the faces audiences remember, but they are only one part of a much bigger entertainment ecosystem.
Sports have a similar impact
When the Super Falcons play a major game, the focus is naturally on the players and what happens on the pitch. But outside the stadium, the game can mean business for viewing centres, food vendors, restaurants and bars. Sports analysts and commentators have more to cover, content creators have something new to create around and businesses selling jerseys and football merchandise get an opportunity to make sales.
A major sporting event can turn an ordinary evening into a busy one for businesses that have little to do with what happens on the pitch. That is the part of sports and entertainment that is easy to overlook. The value is not only in the stars we see or the content we consume. It is also in the network of people whose skills and businesses keep these industries moving.
And this is where DStv and GOtv become an important part of the picture. They do more than give audiences access to the shows, matches and moments they care about. They connect the people producing this content with millions of viewers who keep the industry going.
Every time someone tunes in to Big Brother Naija, follows the Super Falcons or settles in for a major sporting event, they are engaging with an industry that supports producers, creatives, technicians, businesses and other professionals.
The impact of sports and entertainment, therefore, goes beyond what happens on the screen. By bringing some of the biggest entertainment and sporting moments to Nigerian audiences, DStv and GOtv help keep this ecosystem active, visible and working. Because sometimes, when we sit down to watch, we are not just consuming entertainment. We are also supporting an industry that provides jobs.
By Blaise Udunze
Three years after the removal of the fuel subsidy and the adjustment of the foreign-exchange regime, Nigeria’s revenue and external positions have improved significantly. After escaping the fiscal cliff as touted, but with the United States questioning the country’s fiscal transparency, the harder question is whether these gains can be translated into an economy worthy of the sacrifice Nigerians have endured.
There is an uncomfortable concern and interrogation Nigeria must confront as it evaluates the economic reforms that began in 2023, which has to do with understanding the consequences Nigeria would have faced without reform.
What if the petrol subsidy had remained? What if the foreign-exchange market had continued under its old distortions? What if government had not intensified revenue mobilisation through taxation, VAT, customs collections, statutory revenues and electronic money transfer levies? What if the loopholes that allowed significant economic activity to escape the tax net had remained largely untouched?
The question matters because the pain associated with the reforms has become so visible that it is easy to forget the economic crisis they were designed to prevent.
Three years later, Nigeria’s economic story is more complicated. On one hand, the numbers indicate a significant expansion in the government’s revenue-generating capacity and external buffers. On the other, the lived experiences of households continue to face severe pressure from food prices, transportation costs, inflation and declining purchasing power.
Significantly, the tax collection figures have risen from N12.3 trillion in 2023 to N27.1 trillion by July 2026, a 113 per cent increase in less than three years, according to figures furnished by the Nigeria Revenue Service. The agency has linked the increase to tax reforms, digitalisation, new tax laws and efforts to close revenue leakages.
Nigeria’s gross external reserves have also risen to $52.52 billion as of July 17, 2026, from $50.47 billion at the end of May, according to the Central Bank of Nigeria. The reserve level is reported to provide roughly 11 months of import cover, well above the conventional three-month benchmark.
These are significant developments. But they do not, by themselves, prove that Nigeria has completed its fiscal recovery.
The United States Government’s 2026 Fiscal Transparency Report reportedly found that Nigeria had made insufficient progress in fiscal transparency. It said government budget documents did not provide a comprehensive picture of revenues and expenditures, raised concerns about discrepancies between approved budgets and actual implementation, and criticised weaknesses in the independence and reporting of Nigeria’s supreme audit institution.
That criticism strikes at the heart of the reform narrative. More revenue is not necessarily the same thing as more fiscal credibility.
A government can collect more money without demonstrating clearly how all of it is spent. A country can accumulate foreign reserves while still leaving questions about the completeness and transparency of its public accounts.
This does not erase Nigeria’s fiscal gains. It does, however, mean the gains must be subjected to greater scrutiny.
The removal of the petrol subsidy was arguably the most consequential reform, as this remains visible to the people. More confusing is that for many years, Nigeria devoted enormous public resources to keeping petrol prices artificially low. Deceitfully, as it were, the policy created an illusion of cheap energy and at the same time, fraudulently consumed resources that could otherwise have supported infrastructure, healthcare, education, social protection and productive investment.
The World Bank, at the outset, estimated that subsidy removal would save approximately N2 trillion in 2023, with cumulative savings projected to exceed N11 trillion between 2023 and 2025, and this was compared with a scenario in which the subsidy continued.
In reality, and as a response to one of the queries, if Nigeria had refused to remove the subsidy, the implication is that the government would have had to find more than N11 trillion to sustain it over that period or absorb the cost through additional borrowing, expenditure cuts or arrears.
In such a situation, it would be said that the reform therefore did not eliminate the economic cost. It changed where the cost appeared.
Before reform, much of the cost was hidden in government finances. After reform, it became visible in petrol prices, transportation costs, food prices and household expenditure.
The social cost was immediate. The World Bank reported that retail gasoline prices rose by an average of 163 per cent following subsidy removal.
Yet the alternative was not cost-free. It was a system in which government continued subsidising consumption while struggling to finance development.
Nigeria was therefore not choosing between pain and no pain. It was choosing between immediate adjustment and potentially greater fiscal pressure later.
Honestly, one of the strongest pieces of evidence that Nigeria’s fiscal architecture today has changed is found in the revenue numbers, especially where it is said that tax collections increased from N12.3 trillion in 2023 to N27.1 trillion by July 2026, an additional N14.8 trillion.
Nigeria had therefore collected by July 2026 more than twice the 2023 tax take, even though the 2026 figure covers only seven months. That signals a potentially important shift from chronic revenue weakness toward stronger tax mobilisation.
Nigeria’s revenue problem has never been solely about tax rates. It has also involved a narrow tax base, informality, weak enforcement, leakages and the government’s limited ability to capture economic activity.
Digitalisation, improved enforcement and new tax laws can change that. But the N27.1 trillion figure must be interpreted carefully. It represents tax revenue, not total government revenue, and is a nominal figure. Inflation, exchange-rate movements and higher nominal transaction values can contribute to the increase.
For proper verification of the development, the real test is whether the growth represents a sustained improvement in the tax-to-GDP ratio, fiscal capacity and public accountability.
The broader revenue picture reinforces the transformation. Reviewing the figures, World Bank data showed VAT rising from N3.6 trillion in 2023 to N6.7 trillion in 2024, an increase of about N3.1 trillion or 86 per cent. Also, Customs revenue rose from N2.0 trillion to N3.4 trillion, adding N1.4 trillion, or roughly 69 per cent.
Further data from the Bank showed that oil and gas royalties increased from N2.4 trillion to N6.3 trillion, while oil and gas taxes rose from N2.9 trillion to N5.9 trillion. Federal independent revenues also increased from approximately N2.0 trillion to N4.4 trillion.
These increases cannot all be interpreted as pure productivity gains. Inflation and exchange-rate movements matter. Nevertheless, they show that the government has expanded its capacity to mobilise revenue.
The latest FAAC figures reinforce the point. In June 2026 alone, gross revenue available to the Federation was N4.501 trillion, comprising N3.701 trillion in statutory revenue and N799.746 billion in VAT. That monthly figure would amount to roughly N54 trillion annually if sustained, although such annualisation should not be interpreted as a forecast.
The more important question is now changing. It is no longer simply: “Where will government find money?” It is: “What is government doing with the money and can Nigerians independently verify it?”
That question becomes even more important when viewed against the foreign-exchange reforms.
Nigeria’s old FX structure produced distortions, shortages and opportunities for arbitrage. The subsequent adjustment was painful, as the naira lost substantial value and imported goods, machinery, raw materials and other inputs became more expensive.
But the same adjustment increased the naira value of foreign-currency-linked government revenues.
That creates another reform inconsistency: The exchange-rate adjustment that strengthened government’s nominal revenue position also weakened household purchasing power.
Customs collections illustrate this. As the naira value of dollar-denominated imports rises, customs revenue can increase in naira terms. But importers pay more, manufacturers face higher input costs, and consumers ultimately bear much of the cost.
A reform can therefore strengthen government finances while worsening the immediate economics of households and businesses.
The much-touted fiscal cliff is the reserve story; nevertheless, it represents an important macroeconomic gain. Nigeria’s gross external reserves reached $52.52 billion by July 17, 2026, up from $50.47 billion at the end of May. Compared with roughly $40 billion at the end of 2024, reserves have increased by more than $12 billion. The CBN says the current reserve position provides approximately 11 months of import cover.
For a country that spent years battling FX shortages, reserve depletion and pressure on the naira, a stronger external buffer is important. It improves resilience against external shocks and strengthens the credibility of the country’s external position.
But stronger reserves do not automatically mean Nigeria has completely “escaped the fiscal cliff.” Foreign reserves are primarily an external-sector buffer. Fiscal sustainability concerns government revenue, expenditure, deficits, debt, debt servicing and the credibility of public financial management.
Conflating the two would weaken rather than strengthen Nigeria’s reform argument. The counterfactual, however, remains compelling. Suppose the subsidy had remained. Suppose the old FX regime had continued. Suppose tax administration had not been digitised. Suppose VAT and customs collections had not improved.
Also, suppose tax revenue had remained around N12.3 trillion, rather than reaching N27.1 trillion by July 2026. The fact is that the government would have had fewer resources while continuing to carry the subsidy burden. Foreign-exchange distortions would have remained. Reserve accumulation would have been harder. Borrowing requirements would likely have increased, while debt service would continue competing with development spending.
The arithmetic would have been brutal when adding together: high subsidy expenditure, weak revenue, FX distortions and persistent deficits would amount to greater borrowing pressure.
Then, adding together: greater borrowing and high interest rates are equal to heavier debt service. And finally: heavier debt service plus weak revenue results in less money for development.
Come to think of the trend in the past, Nigeria might have enjoyed cheaper petrol and avoided some of the immediate inflationary shock, but it would likely have been postponing rather than eliminating the adjustment.
That is why the reforms were necessary. But necessary reform is not the same as successful reform. This is where the U.S. fiscal-transparency assessment becomes significant.
For investors, lenders, development institutions and citizens, transparency is an economic asset. If approved budgets cannot easily be reconciled with actual implementation, if revenue and expenditure information is incomplete, or if independent auditing is considered inadequate, confidence suffers.
Obscurity has an economic cost. It can increase the perceived risk of investing in the country, raise the cost of capital, weaken public trust and make genuine economic improvements harder to believe. Nigeria therefore needs to move beyond revenue mobilisation toward revenue integrity.
This aspect calls for clarity because if tax collections have risen from N12.3 trillion to N27.1 trillion, citizens deserve to know where the additional N14.8 trillion is going.
One critical truth is that if June 2026 generated N4.501 trillion in gross Federation revenue, citizens deserve to know how that money was allocated and what public value it produced. The same applies: if reserves have risen above $52.5 billion, policymakers must clearly explain the sources and sustainability of the accumulation. Also, if the removal of subsidies generated billions of naira in savings, Nigerians deserve a transparent accounting of those savings.
Transparency is therefore not an administrative luxury. It is part of the economic reform itself. More revenue does not automatically mean a healthier economy. A doubling of tax collections sounds spectacular. A $52.5 billion reserve position sounds impressive.
But nominal revenue can rise while real incomes fall. Customs revenue can increase because the naira value of imports has risen. VAT can increase because prices have risen even while households consume less in real terms. Foreign reserves can improve while citizens struggle with food prices.
The fiscal deficit also remains. This is as the IMF’s 2026 assessment projects government revenue and grants at around 10.8 per cent of GDP against expenditure and net lending of about 14.2 per cent. This left a deficit of approximately 4.4 per cent of GDP.
It would be recalled that Nigeria’s 2026 federal budget provides for N34.33 trillion in expected revenue against N58.18 trillion in expenditure, as this includes N15.52 trillion for debt servicing, producing a projected deficit of N23.85 trillion, or 4.28 per cent of GDP.
These figures demonstrate that Nigeria’s fiscal adjustment is unfinished. A country can collect more revenue and still run a large deficit. It can increase tax revenue and still borrow. It can accumulate reserves and still have millions of citizens struggling.
And it can improve macroeconomic indicators while facing legitimate questions about whether its fiscal accounts provide the complete picture.
The next phase must therefore focus on expenditure quality, transparency, independent auditing and productivity.
Nigeria’s first stage was stabilisation: remove the unsustainable subsidy, correct FX distortions, improve revenue mobilisation, digitalise tax administration, close leakages, rebuild reserves and restore fiscal credibility. But stabilisation is not prosperity. The next stage must be transformation.
The additional N14.8 trillion represented by the increase in tax collections must translate into productive economic capacity. Stronger revenue must support electricity, transport infrastructure, healthcare, education, agriculture, industrial development, security and social protection.
And Nigerians must be able to see and verify what their money is producing. This is where the reform story becomes a test of governance.
No doubt, the following, such as tax collections, have risen from N12.3 trillion in 2023 to N27.1 trillion by July 2026. Foreign reserves have climbed beyond $52.5 billion. June 2026 generated N4.501 trillion in gross Federation revenue.
The subsidy burden has been substantially reduced. The FX market has undergone fundamental restructuring. These are significant achievements. But they are inputs, not the final outcome.
The final outcome must be a stronger, more productive and more transparent economy. How many Nigerians have moved into productive employment? How much has real household income recovered? How much has electricity reliability improved? How much has agricultural productivity increased? How much has the cost of doing business fallen? How much private capital has been attracted? How much has poverty declined? How much of the approved budget was actually implemented? And can an independent auditor verify the answers?
These questions will determine whether the reforms become transformative. There are two equally flawed positions in the reform debate. The first is to say the reforms were unnecessary because Nigerians are suffering.
The second is to say that because the reforms were necessary, every consequence should simply be accepted. Both are inadequate. Nigeria needed reform. But reform was never the destination.
The subsidy could not remain indefinitely. The distorted FX system could not remain indefinitely. The weak tax base could not remain indefinitely. Government’s ability to borrow indefinitely was also limited.
But Nigerians did not endure the resulting hardship merely to produce better fiscal statistics. They endured it because the promise was that the adjustment would ultimately produce a more stable, productive and prosperous economy. That promise must now be fulfilled and transparently demonstrated.
Nigeria may have moved significantly away from the economic cliff that confronted it in 2023. But stronger revenue and reserves should not be confused with complete fiscal recovery.
The numbers are encouraging. The U.S. transparency concerns are a warning. Both can be true. Nigeria has built greater fiscal space. It has rebuilt part of its external buffer. It has expanded its revenue capacity. Now it must build the bridge from those gains to the Nigerian household.
The country must move from higher revenue to higher productivity; stronger reserves to stronger investment; fiscal consolidation to better public services; GDP growth to better jobs; tax mobilisation to greater opportunity; budget announcements to measurable implementation; and macroeconomic stability to household prosperity.
The central question is no longer whether Nigeria should have reformed. It should have. The more important question is whether the government can now prove that the sacrifice was worth it.
Nigerians did not endure the removal of the fuel subsidy merely to make government finances healthier. They did not endure the naira adjustment merely to improve reserve statistics. They did not accept higher prices merely so that tax collections could rise from N12.3 trillion to N27.1 trillion.
They endured the adjustment because the old economic model had become unsustainable and because reform was supposed to lead somewhere better.
Now comes the harder part. Nigeria must prove that the money is there, that the money is properly accounted for, that it is being spent as authorised and that it is producing results. That is the real meaning of fiscal reform.
Nigeria may have strengthened its fiscal position. It may have rebuilt its external buffer. It may have expanded its revenue capacity. But the journey is not complete until it rebuilds something equally important, which is the public trust in the numbers and prosperity in the lives of its people.
The fiscal cliff may be behind Nigeria. The real challenge now is to build an economy and a fiscal system worthy of the sacrifice.
Blaise, a journalist and PR professional, writes from Lagos and can be reached via: [email protected]
