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A Response to The Report by New York Times on State of Nigeria’s Economy

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By Kenechukwu Aguolu

The New York Times report “Nigeria Confronts Its Worst Economic Crisis in a Generation” published on June 11, 2024, portrays a bleak outlook on Nigeria’s economic state. However, the report lacks objectivity and may inadvertently misinform readers. It is essential to present a more balanced viewpoint that takes into account the wider context, including global economic trends and challenges shared by other nations. Moreover, it is imperative to highlight the proactive measures undertaken by the current government to address these issues and the inherited economic challenges it faces. By offering a comprehensive perspective, we can better understand the complexities of Nigeria’s situation and the efforts made towards sustainable growth and stability.

The report fails to mention that inflation is a global issue affecting many countries, not just Nigeria. By not acknowledging this, the report gives the impression that Nigeria’s inflation is an isolated problem, which is misleading. Additionally, when comparing the size of economies, it is essential to remember that they are typically valued in dollars. Therefore, individual country exchange rate policies may affect such comparisons. A country’s economic size appears smaller when its currency is devalued. For instance, a country that defends its currency might seem to be doing better economically than a country that floats its currency, although the latter may be making more sustainable long-term economic decisions.

Labour Union strikes did not start under this regime; even the previous administration experienced various strikes by numerous unions, with the ASUU strike being one of the longest. The current government should be commended for its proactive approach to addressing the demands of labour unions. However, the government and labour unions must find more effective ways to resolve disputes to prevent the economic losses caused by strikes.

When President Tinubu’s administration took office a year ago, it inherited an economy in a comatose state. The amount used for debt servicing was already over 90% of Nigeria’s revenue, making most expenditures reliant on borrowing. This situation was unsustainable, necessitating significant economic reforms. The New York Times report overlooks that the current administration is dealing with long-standing economic issues rather than creating new ones. It is also important to recognize that high infrastructure deficits and security challenges are inherited issues that the government is actively addressing.

Faced with an untenable economic situation, the Tinubu administration took bold decisions to remove fuel subsidies and float the naira. These measures were necessary to reduce the financial burden on the country and free up funds for critical investments in infrastructure and other sectors. While these reforms caused short-term economic shocks and hardship, they are essential for Nigeria’s long-term economic health. Many Nigerians question where the money saved from these reforms has gone. It is important to note that savings can be actual revenue saved or money that would have been borrowed but wasn’t. The removal of fuel subsidies and the floating of the naira has reduced the need for borrowing and allowed the government to redirect funds to more productive uses.

The New York Times report does not highlight the government’s efforts to mitigate the hardships caused by economic reforms. To alleviate the situation, the Federal Government started paying ₦35,000 cash awards to federal civil servants, with various state governments following suit by paying varying amounts to their workers. Additionally, the government is about concluding a new, improved national minimum wage, with a bill about to be sent to the national assembly. Furthermore, the government has initiated conditional cash transfers and distributed thousands of metric tonnes of assorted grains to support vulnerable households. It has also introduced a student loan scheme to enhance access to tertiary education. The Dangote refinery is scheduled to commence production of premium motor spirit by the end of July. This holds promise for alleviating the impact of fuel subsidy removal by potentially lowering the prices of PMS

Amongst other things, the report failed to acknowledge the current government’s significant achievement in clearing the $7 billion forex backlog owed to foreign companies, a move that has boosted investor confidence. Critics argue that foreign companies are leaving Nigeria due to poor economic decisions, making the country unattractive for investment. However, this is not always the case. Companies may shut down operations for various reasons, including changes in business models or the inability to cope with competition from substitute products or services. For example, GlaxoSmithKline ceased operations in Kenya and Nigeria, opting for a third-party distribution model for its pharmaceutical products.

While Nigeria is facing economic challenges, it’s important to provide a balanced perspective that takes into account the global context, historical issues, and the current government’s efforts. The administration led by President Tinubu has taken necessary but painful steps to address long-standing economic problems. These reforms, though causing short-term hardship, are essential for Nigeria’s long-term economic stability and growth. However, the government must remain committed to these reforms and ensure transparent communication with its citizens. Problems of several years cannot be solved overnight, but a committed and balanced approach can pave the way for sustainable growth and development.

Kenechukwu Aguolu, a Business Analyst, Project Manager, Chartered Accountant, and Public Affairs Analyst, writes from Abuja and can be reached viw [email protected]

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The Future of Payments: Key Trends to Watch in 2025

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By Luke Kyohere

The global payments landscape is undergoing a rapid transformation. New technologies coupled with the rising demand for seamless, secure, and efficient transactions has spurred on an exciting new era of innovation and growth. With 2025 fast approaching, here are important trends that will shape the future of payments:

1. The rise of real-time payments

Until recently, real-time payments have been used in Africa for cross-border mobile money payments, but less so for traditional payments. We are seeing companies like Mastercard investing in this area, as well as central banks in Africa putting focus on this. 

2. Cashless payments will increase

In 2025, we will see the continued acceleration of cashless payments across Africa. B2B payments in particular will also increase. Digital payments began between individuals but are now becoming commonplace for larger corporate transactions. 

3. Digital currency will hit mainstream

In the cryptocurrency space, we will see an increase in the use of stablecoins like United States Digital Currency (USDC) and Tether (USDT) which are linked to US dollars. These will come to replace traditional cryptocurrencies as their price point is more stable. This year, many countries will begin preparing for Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs), government-backed digital currencies which use blockchain. 

The increased uptake of digital currencies reflects the maturity of distributed ledger technology and improved API availability. 

4. Increased government oversight

As adoption of digital currencies will increase, governments will also put more focus into monitoring these flows. In particular, this will centre on companies and banks rather than individuals. The goal of this will be to control and occasionally curb runaway foreign exchange (FX) rates.

5. Business leaders buy into AI technology

In 2025, we will see many business leaders buying into AI through respected providers relying on well-researched platforms and huge data sets. Most companies don’t have the budget to invest in their own research and development in AI, so many are now opting to ‘buy’ into the technology rather than ‘build’ it themselves. Moreover, many businesses are concerned about the risks associated with data ownership and accuracy so buying software is another way to avoid this risk. 

6. Continued AI Adoption in Payments

In payments, the proliferation of AI will continue to improve user experience and increase security.  To detect fraud, AI is used to track patterns and payment flows in real-time. If unusual activity is detected, the technology can be used to flag or even block payments which may be fraudulent. 

When it comes to user experience, we will also see AI being used to improve the interface design of payment platforms. The technology will also increasingly be used for translation for international payment platforms.

7. Rise of Super Apps

To get more from their platforms, mobile network operators are building comprehensive service platforms, integrating multiple payment experiences into a single app. This reflects the shift of many users moving from text-based services to mobile apps. Rather than offering a single service, super apps are packing many other services into a single app. For example, apps which may have previously been used primarily for lending, now have options for saving and paying bills. 

8. Business strategy shift

Recent major technological changes will force business leaders to focus on much shorter prediction and reaction cycles. Because the rate of change has been unprecedented in the past year, this will force decision-makers to adapt quickly, be decisive and nimble. 

As the payments space evolves,  businesses, banks, and governments must continually embrace innovation, collaboration, and prioritise customer needs. These efforts build a more inclusive, secure, and efficient payment system that supports local to global economic growth – enabling true financial inclusion across borders.

Luke Kyohere is the Group Chief Product and Innovation Officer at Onafriq

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Ghana’s Democratic Triumph: A Call to Action for Nigeria’s 2027 Elections

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In a heartfelt statement released today, the Conference of Nigeria Political Parties (CNPP) has extended its warmest congratulations to Ghana’s President-Elect, emphasizing the importance of learning from Ghana’s recent electoral success as Nigeria gears up for its 2027 general elections.

In a statement signed by its Deputy National Publicity Secretary, Comrade James Ezema, the CNPP highlighted the need for Nigeria to reclaim its status as a leader in democratic governance in Africa.

“The recent victory of Ghana’s President-Elect is a testament to the maturity and resilience of Ghana’s democracy,” the CNPP stated. “As we celebrate this achievement, we must reflect on the lessons that Nigeria can learn from our West African neighbour.”

The CNPP’s message underscored the significance of free, fair, and credible elections, a standard that Ghana has set and one that Nigeria has previously achieved under former President Goodluck Jonathan in 2015. “It is high time for Nigeria to reclaim its position as a beacon of democracy in Africa,” the CNPP asserted, calling for a renewed commitment to the electoral process.

Central to CNPP’s message is the insistence that “the will of the people must be supreme in Nigeria’s electoral processes.” The umbrella body of all registered political parties and political associations in Nigeria CNPP emphasized the necessity of an electoral system that genuinely reflects the wishes of the Nigerian populace. “We must strive to create an environment where elections are free from manipulation, violence, and intimidation,” the CNPP urged, calling on the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) to take decisive action to ensure the integrity of the electoral process.

The CNPP also expressed concern over premature declarations regarding the 2027 elections, stating, “It is disheartening to note that some individuals are already announcing that there is no vacancy in Aso Rock in 2027. This kind of statement not only undermines the democratic principles that our nation holds dear but also distracts from the pressing need for the current administration to earn the trust of the electorate.”

The CNPP viewed the upcoming elections as a pivotal moment for Nigeria. “The 2027 general elections present a unique opportunity for Nigeria to reclaim its position as a leader in democratic governance in Africa,” it remarked. The body called on all stakeholders — including the executive, legislature, judiciary, the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), and civil society organisations — to collaborate in ensuring that elections are transparent, credible, and reflective of the will of the Nigerian people.

As the most populous African country prepares for the 2027 elections, the CNPP urged all Nigerians to remain vigilant and committed to democratic principles. “We must work together to ensure that our elections are free from violence, intimidation, and manipulation,” the statement stated, reaffirming the CNPP’s commitment to promoting a peaceful and credible electoral process.

In conclusion, the CNPP congratulated the President-Elect of Ghana and the Ghanaian people on their remarkable achievements.

“We look forward to learning from their experience and working together to strengthen democracy in our region,” the CNPP concluded.

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The Need to Promote Equality, Equity and Fairness in Nigeria’s Proposed Tax Reforms

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By Kenechukwu Aguolu

The proposed tax reform, involving four tax bills introduced by the Federal Government, has received significant criticism. Notably, it was rejected by the Governors’ Forum but was still forwarded to the National Assembly. Unlike the various bold economic decisions made by this government, concessions will likely need to be made on these tax reforms, which involve legislative amendments and therefore cannot be imposed by the executive. This article highlights the purposes of taxation, the qualities of a good tax system, and some of the implications of the proposed tax reforms.

One of the major purposes of taxation is to generate revenue for the government to finance its activities. A good tax system should raise sufficient revenue for the government to fund its operations, and support economic and infrastructural development. For any country to achieve meaningful progress, its tax-to-GDP ratio should be at least 15%. Currently, Nigeria’s tax-to-GDP ratio is less than 11%. The proposed tax reforms aim to increase this ratio to 18% within the next three years.

A good tax system should also promote income redistribution and equality by implementing progressive tax policies. In line with this, the proposed tax reforms favour low-income earners. For example, individuals earning less than one million naira annually are exempted from personal income tax. Additionally, essential goods and services such as food, accommodation, and transportation, which constitute a significant portion of household consumption for low- and middle-income groups, are to be exempted from VAT.

In addition to equality, a good tax system should ensure equity and fairness, a key area of contention surrounding the proposed reforms. If implemented, the amendments to the Value Added Tax could lead to a significant reduction in the federal allocation for some states; impairing their ability to finance government operations and development projects. The VAT amendments should be holistically revisited to promote fairness and national unity.

The establishment of a single agency to collect government taxes, the Nigeria Revenue Service, could reduce loopholes that have previously resulted in revenue losses, provided proper controls are put in place. It is logically easier to monitor revenue collection by one agency than by multiple agencies. However, this is not a magical solution. With automation, revenue collection can be seamless whether it is managed by one agency or several, as long as monitoring and accountability measures are implemented effectively.

The proposed tax reforms by the Federal Government are well-intentioned. However, all concerns raised by Nigerians should be looked into, and concessions should be made where necessary. Policies are more effective when they are adapted to suit the unique characteristics of a nation, rather than adopted wholesale. A good tax system should aim to raise sufficient revenue, ensure equitable income distribution, and promote equality, equity, and fairness.

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