Feature/OPED
African Union and G20: Future Geopolitical and Economic Implications
By Professor Maurice Okoli
Johannesburg was the scene for the 15th BRICS — Brazil, China, India, Russia and South Africa — summit held in late August, during which leaders raised the African Union’s permanent seat in the G20. In early September, New Delhi is the scene for the G20 summit to discuss the changing geopolitical situation and global development and most likely to make historic approval of AU’s permanent seat in G20.
South Africa and India are both members of BRICS and are both members of G20. President Cyril Ramaphosa witnessed two new African States (Egypt and Ethiopia) entry into BRICS. On the other hand, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi seeks admission for the African Union (an organization of 54 member states) into G20.
As the BRICS leaders converged in Johannesburg, the consensus was to undertake collective work towards a multipolar world. Taking this muscular step in the current geopolitical changes means opening a new chapter in human history. It is a strong resolve by nations of the global south represented by the vast majority of the world population to end many years of colonialism and neocolonialism forever and to establish a new world order and the political, economic and cultural system that encourages equitable development of all nations, elimination of poverty and creation of decent living for all.
In New Delhi, however, the summit chorus will have a different rhythm, as the G20 members are wealthy nations mostly from the Global North. These are also well-represented in all international organizations and well-structured institutions, including the World Bank (WB) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF). One distinctive feature here is that the G20 brings together both rich and poor nations, and of India a key member of both clubs.
Noticeably, there are wide policy differences: while BRICS is considered as evolving into some geopolitical rival to the Global North, some BRICS members hold confrontational opinions and thoughts. Emerging nations are simply “looking for alternatives, not replacements” of any system; despite the fact that some differences in policy approach, the desire for BRICS expansion also showed the demand for a change.
For this discussion, it is necessary to note two distinctive features here; the first is that G20 plays an important role in shaping and strengthening global architecture and governance on all major international economic issues.
The second is that BRICS expansion was “more about progressive efforts to find a system that will help to solve the problem of poverty, hunger, and the underdevelopment of billions of people in the developing countries demonstrated by the horrendous migrant crisis where thousands of desperate people are assembling at national borders like between the US and Mexico or be it along the Mediterranean which has already become a mass grave for migrants) of showing that developing countries are heartily rallying to their side against Western hegemony rather than concrete plans to work together.
For African States, BRICS serves as an alternative avenue to explore its support against further economic exploitation and control interruption in their internal affairs in the continent and to assert their right to process their resources and produce value-added goods as means of becoming middle-income societies in the foreseeable future through high technology and industrialization largely ignoring the fact that much rather depends on their policies and approach as well as system of governance.
AU on the Summit Agenda
As the BRICS group grows, the G20 will also expand in numerical strength. The pendulum is noticeably turning; global leaders have already supported the appeal for admission of the African Union (AU) into the G20. The G20’s three-day conference this September 9-10 in New Delhi, India, will definitely push AU’s ascension with a permanent seat in the powerful group, making an indelible milestone history for both AU and G20.
While witnessing this historical moment, the greatest questions for politicians, academics, the business community, and the general public are the strategic significance and geopolitical implications for the African Union as a continental organization and for Africa.
Long before the summit, Modi said India, as a G20 host, would be inclusive and invited the African Union to become a permanent member. The concern was similar during the time of forming the Non-Alignment Movement (NAM), which until today embraces in its entirety the Global South. The NAM meets regularly to deliberate on pertinent issues affecting its members.
Modi underlined India’s role as the G20 host this year and hinted that it would focus on highlighting the concerns of the developing world, and has unreservedly proposed the African Union to become permanent members of the forum. “We have a vision of inclusiveness, and with that vision, we have invited the African Union to become permanent members of the G20,” Modi said as he addressed the Business 20 Summit in New Delhi.
The G20 is an industry event and part of the summit of the G20 leading rich and developing nations. Over three days, industry and policy leaders from around the world have discussed themes like building resilient supply chains, digital transformation, debt distress facing developing countries and how to advance on climate change goals. Their recommendations will be shared with the G20 governments, according to the organizers.
A key part of that strategy is bringing the African Union into the G20 fold, analysts say. “When India assumed the G20 presidency last December, we were acutely conscious that most of the Global South would not be at the table when we meet,” said External Affairs Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar. “This mattered very much because the really urgent problems are those faced by them. … And India, itself so much a part of the Global South, could not stand by and let that happen.”
He said the G20 has so far deliberated on rising debt, sustainable development, climate action and food security, among other issues that affect low to middle-income countries. “The core mandate of the G20 is to promote economic growth and development. This cannot advance if the crucial concerns of the Global South are not addressed,” Jaishankar added.
During the previous summit, G20 nations agreed to work on reforms to the World Trade Organization; at the Rajasthan meeting, for instance, G20 members agreed to improve WTO functioning and strengthen trust in the multilateral trading system. The G20 takes in nations conducting over 75% of global trade and is presently functioning under the Indian presidency.
Proposed reforms would include having a well-functioning Dispute Settlement System accessible to all members by 2024, as per the official statement. Disputes over trade are largely persistent. India’s trade deficit with China is the highest of any country and stood at $101.28 billion in 2022, according to official data. Now, there are similar arguments and concerns over China’s trade with Africa.
Global Leaders Call for AU’s Membership
At the same time, world leaders have overwhelmingly declared support and viewed it in a broader context that the African Union has a permanent representation at G20. As part of the priority call for some structural reforms, the African Union’s permanent membership will top the agenda, which Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has proposed granting at the upcoming summit in New Delhi.
Interestingly, the African Union’s proposed ascension unto G20 has unflinching support from many leaders, at least over the past few years. It includes the United States, Europe, China, India and Russia.
President Joe Biden, during the US-Africa Leaders’ Summit held mid-December 2022, described it as a platform for 49 African leaders + the African Union to jointly pitch their collective expectations and aspirations in the emerging new global world.
Scanning through the discussions, what is probably appealing is the United States’ desire towards (re)defining its relationship with Africa on African terms. In addition, Biden has urged that the African Union be given a permanent seat in the G20 – an influential collection of the strongest economies in the world. South Africa is the only member of the continent. Notwithstanding any criticisms, Biden has thrown his backing behind the African Union, securing a permanent membership in G20, which will enhance economic ties in its own right with Africa.
As Chair of the African Union (2022 – 2023), Senegalese President, Macky Sall, asserted that Africa’s future prosperity is linked to the global economic system; the African Union, on behalf of Africa, uses its leadership and geo-strategic position to optimize necessary links suitable for economic development, industrialization and promoting trade with the continent, and for the next generations.
Sall emphasized several reasons, such as the necessity of adopting fundamental policy leveraging the industrialized poles rather than partitioning the world, describing this step as a smart decision in the age of multi-polarity. Due to the geopolitical importance of the United States, African nations need not jettison their cooperative relations but make strong calls for restructuring and reforms to lobby for long-term strategic and inclusive relations.
Early April 2023, Russian President Vladimir Putin signed an order to endorse Russia’s updated foreign policy concept, which was compiled and presented by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. The new concept was updated to incorporate additional measures and redefine parameters of necessary actions in relation to the United States, Western and European confrontation and determine important roles in the emerging multipolar world by the Russian Federation. In the same document, and even long before its adoption, Russia has consistently been advocating for United Nations reforms, calling for broadening the representation of Africa and in other similar foreign organizations, including the G20.
Without mincing words, Putin said: “Russia proactively supported the initiative to grant the African Union membership in the Group of 20. It is the right decision reflecting the reality and the balance of power in today’s world.” In addition to that, Moscow supports the legitimate aspiration of African States to pursue their own independent policy to decide on their own future without imposed ‘assistance’ by third parties.
President of the People’s Republic of China, Xi Jinping, during the China-Africa Leaders’ Dialogue held August 24 in Johannesburg, rained praises that Africa has made big strides on the path of independence, seeking strength through unity and integration. With steady progress under Agenda 2063 of the African Union (AU), the official launch of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), and growing coordination among the sub-regional groups, Africa is becoming an important pole with global influence.
Xi Jinping also said that “China will continue to support Africa in speaking with one voice on international affairs and continuously elevating its international standing. China will work actively at the G20 summit to support the AU’s full membership in the group. China supports making special arrangements on the U.N. Security Council reform to meet Africa’s aspiration as a priority.”
The new historic galloping convergence between G20 and the African Union really requires close attention since it will definitely reshape the growing relations, which is most important in the emerging multipolar world. At least the African side of it largely boils down to the acceptance speeches, the main long-term objectives and the primacy of conceptual ideas of the President of Comoros Islands and Chairperson of the African Union (2023 – 2024), Azali Assoumani, Chairman of African Union Commission, Moussa Faki Mahamat, will definitely remain for future generations.
Among high dignitaries also in attendance to witness AU’s ascendency into G20 are Egyptian President and 2023 Chairperson of NEPAD, Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, and Nigerian President, Bola Ahmed Tinubu. Director-General of the World Health Organization, Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus from Ethiopia, and Director-General of the World Trade Organization, Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala from Nigeria.
By joining G20 this September 2023, the AU, with a permanent seat, will now have the explicit, solid voice to make cases on behalf of Africa, especially in this crucial time of political and economic reconfiguration. The processes could present, to some extent, complexities and contradictions.
Nevertheless, in view of the substantial expertise accumulated down the years, the next logical step is to foster dialogue and exchange experience, with the aim of optimizing all aspects of integration processes, including the political, economic and cultural spheres and collaborating on the widest possible range of external issues, at the forefront of integrating with G20.
It primarily highlights the fulfilment of the promise promoted widely at conferences and summits and further re-enforces the necessity for a multifaceted partnership with Africa by the G20. It is one step, if not a big leap forward from mere intentions, diplomatic niceties, and rhetoric previously expressed to concrete deeds making Africa more visible in G20. It has many interpretations, though, depending on diverse perspectives, politics, economy and social and cultural.
Importance of B20 Business Platform
On its website, India’s G20 says Nigerian Tony Elumelu, Chairman of Heirs Holdings, is named to co-chair the Business 20 (B20) India Action Council focusing on African economic integration. Established in 2010 within the G20, it comprises corporate business enterprises and organizations and serves as the official platform for dialogue between the G20 and the global business community.
Africa is undoubtedly facing greater multifaceted challenges, and these will definitely continue in the near future, so it implies that the B20 has a pivotal role and a unified voice in uniting global business leaders to provide their perspectives on matters concerning global economic and trade governance and determine its slice for Africa.
With the global attention turning to Africa, this also underscores the ambitious endeavour of African economies toward achieving continent-wide economic integration. It emphasizes the need for the B20 to unite and provide substantial support in facilitating the success of this integration process, ultimately contributing to African economic development.
Without overestimating its importance, this platform has a meaningful advantage for Africa and beyond. By facilitating increased business participation in Africa, international cooperation in this realm will create an enabling environment conducive to inclusive growth.
G20 – Economic Implications for Africa
The African Union’s strategic framework Agenda 2063 highlights the importance of preserving African values and unity, and Pan-Africanism.
As we expect in coming years, AU has to use its G20 membership – a qualitatively new status – for the development of high-tech and export-oriented industries in the sector. It has laid the groundwork for expanding areas of collaboration and launching ambitious long-term projects rather than engaging in geopolitical games.
The basic question here is what needs to be done to bring about a substantial improvement in collaboration between G20 and the 54-member African Union. The new global challenge is not only lining up for or in search of new funding but rather completely new mindsets about economic development paradigm shift. Today, Africa is one of the most promising and fastest-growing regions of the world, with leading powers actively competing with one another.
Seemingly, the accelerated economic integration processes have become an overarching trend throughout the world. Therefore, the AU has to critically revitalize this economic integration with the G20 to provide new perspectives on crucial projects related to infrastructure, logistics, energy, trade, agricultural and industrial development, digitalization, migration policy, and employment.
At first, since its creation, G20’s primary tasks included supporting the economic development of the Global South, but it has, over these years and to a considerable extent, distanced from its initial driven visions, promoting a more inequitable distribution of resources and supporting largely a unipolar sort of world. It is, therefore, necessary to use the platform to think of building an alternative mechanism for international cooperation with a focus on the developing world.
Final Hope for Africa
With the current situation, G20 is now only a formidable alliance that fosters its members. The majority of developing nations, mainly located in the south, including Africa, express growing frustration over outdated structures of global governance and under-representation in many international organizations that no longer reflect the realities of the 21st century. Hence, one of the important questions taking place at the summit is seeking collaboration between G20 and the African Union.
Judging from the historical landmark, the AU has the potential, despite the widespread political vulnerabilities, to make an invaluable contribution to developing and tackling current economic challenges facing Africa, with its estimated 1.4 billion people, by collaborating and partnering through G20. After all, the G20 members account for nearly 85% of the global Gross Domestic Product (GDP), have bilateral and multilateral relations, and in addition, multiple partnerships with Africa.
By simple definition, the G20 includes the world’s 19 wealthiest nations plus the European Union. With the African Union, it becomes G21 or G20+African Union. The 54-member AU was created in May 1963 and is now experiencing dynamic political changes in the landscape. It has unique stipulated models of transforming the continent – incorporated into what is popularly referred to as the AU Agenda 2063.
Professor Maurice Okoli is a fellow at the Institute for African Studies and the Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Russian Academy of Sciences. He is also a fellow at the North-Eastern Federal University of Russia. He is an expert at the Roscongress Foundation and the Valdai Discussion Club.
As an academic researcher and economist with a keen interest in current geopolitical changes and the emerging world order, Maurice Okoli frequently contributes articles for publication in reputable media portals on different aspects of the interconnection between developing and developed countries, particularly in Asia, Africa and Europe. With comments and suggestions, he can be reached via email: markolconsult (at) gmail (dot) com
By Kingsley Omose
The drama playing out in the oil and gas sector between the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) Limited and Dangote Refinery LPZ in a way mirrors the clash going on in the political arena between the advocates of the status quo and those who want to chart a new way forward, and this has implications for the future of Nigeria.
For decades, Nigeria used earnings from its vast oil and gas resources to fund a consumptive lifestyle for its people. While the politicians in power, and the military before them were left to spend government revenues as they liked, they responded by having policies which were literarily bribes to Nigerians.
These bribes constituted of the provision of subsidised petroleum products and electricity, and with a near abscence of tax collection from Nigerians who in turn expected free health care, free education, security, and good infrasture as the bare minimum from their leaders whether military or political.
And because the oil and gas production was there to provide US Dollars that had no bearing on the productivity or unproductivity of the Nigerian people, importation became the norm to satisfy the love of Nigerians for the good things of life that money can buy.
Like the proverbial ostrich that buries its head in the sand and is oblivious to the realities, no one bothered to plan for the future and so as the Nigerian population grew exponentially, revenues from oil and gas production became increasingly unable to fund Nigeria’s consumptive economy.
Resort to local and external borrowings by government including the printing of tens of trillions of Naira in an effort to continue to keep afloat Nigeria’s consumptive economy have only succeed in worsening the quality of life of Nigerians and made living conditions in the country hellish.
Violent groups mostly made up of young people whether as cultists, militants, terrorists, armed robbers, kidnappers, agitators, 419ers, or thugs, have sprung up and are charting their part, and along with the abuses in the corridors of power and the failings in the security services, all these make for a very combustible environment.
There are those who believe ramping up oil production to at least 4 million barrels of oil per day and increased monetisation of vast gas resources even if this is done at the expense of Niger Deltans, will increase US Dollar earnings to refloat Nigeria’s consumptive economy and it will be business as usual.
This is unrealistic because there is no other country in the world like Nigeria with a monoproduct economy that has over 210 million people where 70% are below the age of 30, 42% are under the age of 15, and that has the largest population of young people in the world with a median age of 18 years.
As the Word of God says, Where there is no revelation, the people cast off restraint (Proverbs 29:18). This is the crux of the matter, that there are not enough productive activities going on in Nigeria to adequately engage the productive energies of at least 70% of Nigerians. In other words, for those we regard as the energy of the future, Nigerians below 15 years of age who constitute 42% of the population, their future is characterised by even greater HUSTLE.
This is the context in which to view the conflict between the poster child of Nigeria’s consumptive economy, NNPC Ltd with close to 6000 employees that on the average earn N100 million each going by its yearly N600 billion wage bill, and Dangote Refinery with over 15,000 employees that can produce petroleum products both for local and international consumption.
What Nigerians need to understand is that while Dangote Refinery may have had a long gestation period, an ecosystem was created in Lagos State that enabled this poster child for Nigeria’s emerging production economy to see the light of day, and principal to that was the political stability in Lagos State.
It is with this understanding that Nigerians should welcome and endure the twin pains of petroleum products pricing deregulation and the floating of the local currency, the Naira which have caused inflation to hit hard the pockets of Nigerians. Nigerians must endure this transition to secure the future of their children.
It is with this understanding that Nigerians should endure the regular collapse of the national power grid and power outages despite increased electricity rates because the country is transitioning from a consumptive to a productive economy in order to productively engage those who have the energy of the future.
The need for the passage of the following pending bills in the National Assembly: the Ministry of Finance Incorporated (Establishment) Bill, 2023, the Investments and Securities (Repeal and Enactment) Bill 2024, the Joint Revenue Board of Nigeria (Establishment) Bill, the Nigeria Revenue Service (Establishment) Bill; the Nigeria Tax Administration Bill, and the Nigeria Tax Bill, should also be viewed with this understanding.
Additional reforms will be required in the mining sector to attract the big players while local steel manufacturing will be needed to meet the developing demands of a productive economy for rail tracks, trains, bridges, skyscrapers, automobiles, aircrafts, ships, and much more.
In time, the reforms will shift to governance and electoral reforms, educational and healthcare reforms and such as will be required to reposition this tithe of the blackrace in a changing world where the instability released into the global order from January 20, 2025 will fundamentally change the world order as we know it today.
By Doron Avni
The dawn of the AI age presents a unique opportunity for Africa. With the right policies, the continent can experience accelerated socio-economic progress. According to a recent study by Public First, AI could increase the Sub-Saharan African economy by over $30 billion annually and is already revolutionizing various African sectors.
For instance, AI-powered ultrasound checks are accessible in remote areas, AI combined with satellite imagery helps assess village electrification, and AI and cloud connect youth with jobs via mobile search.
As the AU Commissioner for Infrastructure and Energy, Dr Amani Abou-Zeid wrote in the introduction to the recently adopted Continental AI Strategy: AI “is seen as a driving force for positive change, socio-economic transformation, and cultural renaissance.”
Strong government policy is crucial for unlocking Africa’s AI potential, and new research confirms this critical link. The Google-commissioned AI Policy Blueprint for Africa report by Nextrade Group, which surveyed over 2,000 African students, businesses, and organizations, reveals a striking connection between policy readiness and AI adoption.
The report demonstrates a clear correlation: African countries with established, pro-AI digital policy frameworks also have significantly higher AI adoption rates than their peers with less mature policy frameworks. This is especially timely as governments across the continent are actively working on AI strategies at the national level, with some already having adopted them. This data underscores the vital role governments play in creating an environment where AI can flourish.
To guide this crucial government leadership, the AI Policy Blueprint report provides a practical roadmap. Building upon the foundational recommendations from Google’s AI Sprinters report, this blueprint offers specific policy guidance across four key pillars: infrastructure, skills development, investment in innovation, and responsible AI regulation.
For each pillar, the blueprint outlines specific policy actions African nations can take to accelerate AI adoption and maximize its benefits for their citizens. The report was designed to help policymakers in the task of translating the exciting vision of the recent AU Continental AI Strategy into practical policies aimed at achieving it.
One of the most important recommendations the report makes is on data readiness. The blueprint emphasizes the importance of ensuring access to high-quality datasets that reflect Africa’s diversity.
Governments can achieve this by opening up non-sensitive public data for AI development, promoting data transfer across borders, and encouraging the use of privacy-enhancing technologies (PETs). The blueprint also stresses the importance of harmonized data protection frameworks to ensure privacy and security as AI systems are deployed.
Crucially, the blueprint advocates for a “cloud-first” approach in the public sector, where governments prioritize cloud-based solutions for data storage and service delivery.
By migrating to the cloud, governments can effectively manage and process the vast amounts of data required for AI, unlocking its potential to improve public services and address critical challenges. The report, scanning the global horizon for AI policies, mentions Singapore as a prime example, where the government has issued guidelines that allow for greater flexibility in using personal data for AI development while still protecting privacy.
This call for government leadership is echoed by the very people who stand to benefit most from AI. The report reveals a groundswell of excitement among African businesses, especially fast-growing firms, with many seeing AI as “absolutely transformative” for their operations and predicting significant revenue gains—as much as 20% annually.
In fact, almost 90% are already applying AI to research, data analysis, marketing content creation, and even coding. Moreover, a majority of Africans believe AI can boost productivity and accelerate national development. These individuals and businesses expressed hope that governments will proactively support this progress by ensuring AI is used safely and responsibly, equipping young people with essential AI skills, and helping small businesses leverage this powerful technology.
Governments must also lead by example, actively adopting AI within their own operations to demonstrate its value and build public trust. The report found overwhelming support for this approach, with over 80% of respondents agreeing that governments should invest in AI to improve public service delivery.
The adoption of AI by governments not only improves government efficiency but also inspires confidence in AI across all sectors, encouraging wider adoption.
At Google, we are committed to being a steadfast partner for African governments, businesses, and individuals on their journey to capture the vast opportunities presented by AI. We believe in the power of technology to drive progress and improve lives, and we are dedicated to supporting Africa’s digital transformation.
Our recent announcements, including a $5.8 million commitment to AI skills development and the expansion of speech technology to include 15 more African languages, demonstrate our ongoing investment in the continent’s future.
We are committed to working with African governments as they embrace AI, not just as policymakers but as active users, demonstrating its transformative potential to their citizens and the world. We are confident that by working together, we can unlock Africa’s immense potential and build a future where AI empowers everyone.
Doron Avni is the VP of Public Policy and Government Affairs for Emerging Markets at Google
By Professor Maurice Okoli
African continent to a very great degree is rich in natural resources encompassing a wide range of both renewable and non-renewable assets. Africa is home to some 30 per cent of the world’s minerals, eight per cent of the world’s natural gas and 12 per cent of the world’s oil reserves. The continent has 40 per cent of the world’s gold and up to 90 per cent of its chromium and platinum.
The largest reserves of cobalt, diamond and uranium in the world are in Africa. It holds 65 per cent of the world’s arable land and 10 per cent of the planet’s internal renewable freshwater source.
For decades, Africa with its vast untapped natural resources has been the world’s geographical region of attention and priority, attracting various global players from all over the world for economic and political engagement.
In a quick assessment, China has emerged as the most powerful player with its geopolitical clout and leadership in fostering multifaceted economic growth. These can be interpreted differently and from different perspectives, and their unequivocal implications are also varied in terms of the current Africa’s transformations and future directions.
For Africa’s future pathway, the year 2025 could perhaps be set as another distinctive new chapter of strategic qualitative development and push for significant growth. The conditions for this expected growth could be linked to the fact that the continental organization African Union will install a new leadership in February 2025, South Africa chairs the G20, Commonwealth Secretariat and World Trade Organization are headed by two African women, a Ghanaian and a Nigerian citizen.
These resounding organizational features, at least, make 2025 an African year to facilitate investment and economic development opportunities, and through wide multilateral collaborations, both external investors and stakeholders, for remarkable changes.
(i) Kenya’s AUC leadership:
As well known, four candidates are slated for the February 2025 polls. Raila Odinga will face off with Djibouti’s Mohamoud Youssouf, Anil Gayan (Mauritius) and Richard Randriamandrato (Madagascar) for the African Union Commission chairmanship in the race to succeed the outgoing chairman Moussa Faki of Chad.
The latest development monitored for this article explicitly showed that Kenya’s candidate for the Africa Union Commission chairmanship Raila Odinga, highlighted his priorities and strategies to include enhancing intra-African trade by establishing a common market, implementing a broader economic transformation, strengthening regional integration and cooperation, and peace and security.
Undoubtedly, the African Union (AU) is a critical institution for promoting unity, peace, and development across the continent. However, there is a growing consensus that it requires reforms to increase its effectiveness, efficiency, and relevance in addressing Africa’s challenges. Here are reasons why reforms are necessary:
1. Structural and Institutional Weaknesses: The AU has been criticized for its slow decision-making processes and lack of streamlined operations. The relationship between the AU and Regional Economic Communities (RECs) is often unclear, leading to duplication of efforts and fragmented initiatives.
2. Financial Dependence: Over 60% of the AU’s budget comes from external donors, raising concerns about the organization’s independence and ability to prioritize African-led solutions. Worse, many member states have unsuccessfully been in a position to meet promptly their financial obligations, hindering the AU’s ability to execute its programs effectively. This is most often reflected in the limited success of peacekeeping: Despite efforts, the AU has struggled to resolve protracted conflicts in regions like the Sahel, Somalia, and the Great Lakes.
3. Geopolitical and Global Challenges: Adapting to a changing world, with shifts in global power dynamics, the AU must reform to ensure Africa’s interests are adequately represented on the global stage.
4. Lack of Accountability and Governance: There have been concerns over deep-seated corruption. Internal mismanagement and corruption have undermined the credibility of the AU. There is a need for stronger accountability mechanisms to ensure compliance with AU protocols and charters by member states.
Raila Odinga’s tremendous political experience and pan-African vision unreservedly underscored the unwavering commitment to reforms as potential steps to advance the basic objectives of uplifting the economic status of the continent under the banner “Africa We Want” incorporated into the Agenda 2063.
Kagame Report (2017): Spearheaded by Rwandan President Paul Kagame, this initiative proposed actionable reforms to address structural inefficiencies and financial sustainability. Efforts to reduce the number of AU departments and improve coordination among stakeholders. Reforming the African Union is essential for building a stronger, more unified Africa capable of addressing its internal challenges and asserting its position on the global stage.
As frequently reiterated, Africa with its huge human and natural resources can take its rightful position in the current 21st century in the world. But for the realization of this, Africa still has to coordinate with the Commonwealth Secretariat, WTO, G20 and BRICS in promoting industrialization, supporting manufacturing, and enhancing innovation through investments in education, technology, healthcare, affordable energy and skills development. These invariantly fall within the Africa’s Agenda 2063.
(ii) South Africa’s G20 chairmanship: South Africa is now the biggest economy in Africa, with a GDP of $373 billion in 2024. (WorldStatistics) In addition to its economic prominence in Africa, South Africa is a staunch member of BRICS+ (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa), an informal association joined by Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran and the United Arab Emirates.
On one hand, it is important to mention here the role of South Africa as it takes the chairmanship of the Group of 20 (G20) in 2025. It is an intergovernmental forum comprising 19 sovereign countries, the European Union (EU), and the African Union (AU). In 2023, during its summit, the African Union joined as its 21st member and was officially represented at the 2024 G20 summit in Brazil.
On the other hand, since its inception, the recurring themes covered by G20 summit participants have related in priority to global economic growth,
international trade and financial market regulation – these are issues affecting Africa. South Africa could direct G20’s win-win influence in streamlining the beneficial economic sphere considered key to Africa’s development and which would unprecedentedly impact on aspects of life of an estimated 1.4 billion people in the 21st century.
With South Africa at the helm of G20 affairs, it is therefore paramount to seriously “re-evaluate” both the group and individual member’s relations with Africa. South Africa has a unique opportunity to influence the global agenda, especially in addressing the priorities of developing nations. Here are key actions South Africa should undertake:
1. Advocate for African and Global South Priorities
Debt Relief and Financing: Push for frameworks that support debt restructuring and sustainable financing for developing nations, ensuring equitable access to funds for recovery and development. Climate Justice: Emphasize the need for climate financing and support for adaptation, particularly for African nations facing severe climate vulnerabilities.
2. Enhance Multilateralism
Strengthen international cooperation on trade, technology transfer, and global health, highlighting Africa’s role in the global economy. Support reforms in global governance institutions, such as the IMF and World Bank, to give emerging economies more say in decision-making.
3. Promote Inclusive Growth
Champion policies to address inequality, including initiatives to improve education, health, and digital inclusion across member states. Focus on creating partnerships to promote job creation, particularly in green and digital economies.
4. Strengthen Food and Energy Security
Address disruptions in global supply chains exacerbated by geopolitical conflicts. Advocate for sustainable agricultural practices and support energy transition strategies that align with Africa’s development needs.
5. Foster Trade and Investment Opportunities
Use the G20 platform to attract investments in Africa, highlighting the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) as a mechanism for growth. Advocate for fair trade practices that enable African products to access global markets without undue barriers.
If South Africa effectively prioritizes these actions, it could strengthen Africa’s influence in global decision-making drive sustainable development and reduce inequality. The position of South Africa and the African continent are central players in solving global challenges. In a nutshell, South Africa’s leadership in the G20 offers an opportunity to align the group’s actions with Africa’s development aspirations while fostering global solidarity in an era of increasing geopolitical complexity.
(iii) Ghana’s directorship of Commonwealth Secretariat: In late October 2024, the Commonwealth of Nations marked yet another milestone with the appointment of Ghana’s Foreign Minister and Regional Integration, Shirley AyorkorBotchwey, as the next Secretary-General. For West Africans, her appointment was a prestigious testament, first to women’s empowerment and second, to resilience and a reminder that Africa’s voice matters on the world stage.
Despite these two reasons, however, it further presented a step forward in broadening African representation at the helm of international organizations and most importantly the extent this could impact the development of the multifaceted relations with the continent. The Commonwealth has played various roles and continues to attach indivisible value in fostering partnerships with various African countries.
Through these relations, Africa’s economy may benefit from a renewed diverse set of attention to sustainable development and job creation opportunities. It could also see increased investment and trade partnerships among its 56 member nations. Without mincing words, the Commonwealth has shown, in various ways, commitment to unity, peace, and sustainable progress in Africa.
Africa’s relationship with the Commonwealth presents several opportunities, particularly in the context of current geopolitical shifts. For instance, access to markets: The Commonwealth provides a platform for enhancing intra-Commonwealth trade, which is projected to reach $1 trillion annually. Africa can leverage this to diversify trade partners amid shifting global alliances. The next question relates to existing investment opportunities: the Commonwealth programs promote investment, particularly in sustainable industries, offering African countries opportunities to attract Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in green and digital economies.
As the Secretary-General, Shirley AyorkorBotchwey has the possibility of negotiating for initiatives like the Commonwealth scholarships and fellowships to promote education and capacity building, helping African nations develop skilled workforces. And also for strengthening cultural programs and exchanges foster mutual understanding and cooperation.
With increasing competition between global powers, Africa can use the Commonwealth to diversify alliances, reducing over-reliance on single blocs like China or the West. By actively engaging with the Commonwealth, Africa can harness these opportunities to navigate the complexities of global power dynamics while fostering development and regional stability.
(iv) Nigeria’s pedalling World Trade Organization: Today’s transformations and reforms at the World Trade Organization have practical evidence to support the newly created single borderless market in Africa.
The African Continental Free Trade Agreement (AfCFTA) being the flagship of the African Union (AU) is intended to consolidate the intra-African trade to an expected tune of $2.7 trillion and the diverse spheres of the continental economy. In its 2024 report, the UNECA estimated that by 2045 intra-African trade will increase by nearly 35% compared to a situation without the AfCFTA.
This is one signal pointing to the fact that WTO has to strike a groundbreaking impactful collaboration with AfCFTA, but a lot would depend on how critical and important Africa’s partnership with external players is designed and pursued, uttermost offering Africa better opportunities for noticeable economic, socio-cultural and political growth.
In practical reality, Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala and WTO top management have to show seriousness in changing to result-oriented partnerships, especially in its historic trade cooperation these decades with Africa. Both the World Trade Organization (WTO) and the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) aim to reduce barriers to trade, such as tariffs and non-tariff barriers, fostering economic integration and market access.
The WTO provides a global framework for trade regulations, while AfCFTA operates within a similar rule-based framework at the continental level, ensuring predictability and transparency. Both organizations focus on enhancing the trade capacity of member states. The WTO supports developing nations with trade-related technical assistance, while AfCFTA includes initiatives to boost the trade readiness of African countries. The WTO and AfCFTA could work together to harmonize regional trade rules with global trade agreements, ensuring coherence between Africa’s trade policies and international standards.
In summary, the WTO and AfCFTA share common goals in promoting fair and inclusive trade practices, and collaboration between the two can significantly enhance the global trade integration of African countries.
(v) Conclusion – The Year of Africa: Achievable and strategic recommendations for 2025: Judging from the discussion, the African Union and individual African States, therefore in 2025, have to consider the absolute necessity to outlook for strategic collaboration with external partners and corporate shareholders within the framework of the African Union’s Agenda 2063. The necessity for African leaders to prioritize economic parameters and their related proactive measures that enhance practical support for both public and private-sector collaboration.
In furtherance to this, the necessity to draw a roadmap for businesses to achieve long-term sustainable growth, and utilize the opportunities in the intra-African single market while simultaneously adapting to shifting global market demands.
In addition, African leaders, in order to claim the public nobility, instead of rattling anti-western rhetoric have to build and muster their own negotiation capacity to deal with developed countries. In the subsequent years, reawaking the African Union and other Regional Economic Communities, and African leaders should arguably be the main priority, predictably as possible to play the economic development catch-up, in the Global South.
Professor Maurice Okoli is a fellow at the Institute for African Studies and the Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Russian Academy of Sciences. He is also a fellow and lecturer at the North-Eastern Federal University of Russia. He serves as an expert at the Roscongress Foundation and the Valdai Discussion Club.
As an academic researcher and economist with a keen interest in current geopolitical changes and the emerging world order, Maurice Okoli frequently
contributes articles for publication in reputable media portals on different aspects of the interconnection between developing and developed countries, particularly in Asia, Africa, and Europe. With comments and suggestions, he can be reached via email: markolconsult (at) gmail (dot) com.
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