Feature/OPED
Another Oil Boom: Will Nigeria’s Government Turn Windfall into Growth or Squander it?
By Blaise Udunze
The past recurring conflicts on other continents and the current developments in the Middle East are a clear reminder to the world that energy markets are deeply linked to conflict and uncertainty, as experienced across the globe today. The rise in geopolitical tensions with Iran, Israel, and the United States has led to a sudden increase in global crude oil prices. Some individuals may question what business the war has with Nigeria. Economically, yes, as one of Africa’s major oil producers, Nigeria finds itself in a delicate position amid the current global situation. Since it can gain financially when global crude oil prices skyrocket and this is so because the same increase can create economic challenges locally. The price of Brent crude has jumped to $109.18 per barrel, crossing the $100 mark for the first time in more than five years.
The country is getting a temporary fiscal boost, knowing fully well that prices now surpass the benchmark used in the 2026 national budget. The high oil prices gain is further amplified by two major domestic policy shifts, as the first is the removal of fuel subsidy projected to free nearly $10 billion annually for public investment, and a new Executive Order by President Bola Tinubu aimed at boosting oil and gas revenues flowing into the Federation Account by eliminating wasteful deductions allowed under the Petroleum Industry Act. The combination of these developments could significantly increase government revenue over the next few years, but history shows that such windfalls, if not well managed, often go toward short-term spending rather than creating lasting national wealth.
Moreover, our lingering concern today is that Nigeria as a country has experienced this pattern before, and it often brings instability. One of such examples is the 2022 Ukraine conflict, when oil prices spiked above $100 per barrel.
Obviously, during such a period, countries that export oil will suddenly receive a large and sudden increase in revenue from the sale of crude oil. The truth is that if such a windfall is managed well, it can be used to build stronger and diversify their economies beyond oil. Unfortunately, Nigeria has always told a different story as these opportunities were frequently lost to weak fiscal discipline, rising recurrent expenditure, and limited investment in productive assets. The global conflict, in its real sense, could become an opportunity, even though there are risks inherent. Just like any prudent country, Nigeria can use any short-term benefits (like higher oil revenues) to strengthen its economy for the future.
At the heart of this opportunity lies the need for disciplined fiscal management, if the government will tread in line with this call. It is now time for the policymakers to understand that extra money from oil prices should not be wasted, as it has become a tradition to spend through the regular government expenditures. It is high time the government saved and invested the extra funds it gained wisely rather than spending them all immediately. Nigeria’s fiscal vulnerability has often been exposed whenever oil prices fall or global demand weakens. Establishing strong buffers through sovereign savings mechanisms can protect against such volatility. A significant portion of the windfall should therefore be directed into strengthening the country’s sovereign wealth structures and stabilisation funds. This resonates with our subject matter: Can Nigeria convert Oil Windfall into Economic Strength? This rhetorical question is directed to those at the helm of affairs because, by saving during periods of high prices, Nigeria can build reserves that help sustain public spending during downturns without excessive borrowing.
Closely linked to fiscal buffers is the issue of public debt. Nigeria’s debt servicing obligations have continued to rise in recent years, and the current development might be the answer. The debt has continued to place pressure on government revenues and limit fiscal flexibility. Alarming is the fact that the public debt is projected to have surpassed N177.14 trillion by the end of 2026, which is driven by the budget deficit in the 2026 Appropriation Bill.
The truth is that one sensible response to the current situation would be to use some of the unexpected revenue from higher oil prices to pay off loans (debts), especially those with high interest costs. This would reduce future financial burdens on the government and help it spend on development later. The fact is that debt reduction, if the government can quickly address it, also signals fiscal credibility to investors and international financial institutions, thereby strengthening the country’s macroeconomic reputation.
Beyond fiscal stability, Nigeria must recognise that oil windfalls provide a rare opportunity to accelerate strategic infrastructure investment. In today’s world, infrastructure remains one of the most critical constraints on Nigeria’s economic growth. The cost of doing business in Nigeria has been a serious palaver, and it has continued to discourage and scare investment. This is informed by various structural deficiencies, such as inadequate electricity supply and congested transport corridors, as well as weak logistics networks. The question again, can Nigeria convert Oil Windfall into Economic Strength? This is because the truth is not unknown to leaders, but they have continued to deliberately stay away from the fact that channelling windfall revenues into transformative infrastructure projects can therefore yield long-term economic dividends.
Power sector development should be a top priority. Reliable electricity remains the backbone of industrial productivity and economic expansion. Over the years, a well-known fact is that despite various reforms, Nigeria continues to struggle with an epileptic power supply that forces businesses to rely heavily on expensive diesel generators and has posed a double challenge that comes with noise and atmospheric pollution. The nation is tired of the regular audio investment, but strategic investment in power generation, transmission, and distribution infrastructure would significantly reduce operating costs for businesses that translate into manufacturing and encourage new investment across multiple sectors in the country.
Transportation infrastructure also deserves sustained attention, and if nothing is done, the mass commuters will reap nothing but pain. Nigeria’s highways, rail networks, and ports require large-scale modernisation to support efficient trade and mobility. The unexpected extra income from high oil prices, if used carefully for long-term national benefit, can be used to build transport networks that move food and goods from farms and factories to markets and ports. Businesses today are very much dependent on transportation; hence, improved logistics not only facilitates domestic commerce but also strengthens Nigeria’s position as a regional economic hub in West Africa.
Another critical area for deploying oil windfalls is economic diversification. The over-emphasised dependence of Nigeria on crude oil exports has long exposed the economy to external shocks.
Any rise or fall in global oil prices has an immediate impact on Nigeria’s government revenue since oil exports are a major source of government income, foreign exchange availability, and macroeconomic stability follow suit. To break this cycle, Nigeria must invest aggressively in sectors capable of generating sustainable non-oil income and abstain from the unyielding roundtable discussion of diversification without implementation.
With vast arable land and a large labour force, Nigeria has the capacity to become a global agricultural powerhouse; hence, this is to say that agriculture offers enormous potential in this regard. However, productivity remains constrained by limited mechanisation, inadequate irrigation, and poor storage facilities. If the government intentionally invests in modern agriculture and the systems that support it, the country can produce more food, create jobs via agricultural value chains (from production to processing, storage, transportation, and marketing), while earning more from agricultural exporting.
Manufacturing and industrial development represent another pathway to long-term economic resilience, but this sector has been starved of any tangible investment. Unlike Nigeria, countries that successfully convert natural resource wealth into sustainable prosperity typically invest heavily in industrial capacity. The government should be deliberate in using the extra revenues from the high oil prices to invest in building industrial zones, strengthening hubs, and encouraging the transfer of technologies that will fast-track the production of goods within Nigeria, instead of relying on imports. The unarguable point is that the moment Nigeria invests in industries and production of goods locally instead of buying them from other countries, it becomes better able to manufacture and export products that have higher economic value.
One critical aspect that calls for concern is that strengthening Nigeria’s foreign exchange reserves represents another important avenue for deploying excess oil revenues. The truth, which applies to every economy, is that adequate reserves enhance the country’s ability to stabilise its currency during external shocks and support the operations of the Central Bank of Nigeria in maintaining monetary stability, and this part must not be treated with kid gloves. Given Nigeria’s history of foreign exchange volatility, this is another opportunity to know that building strong reserves can significantly improve investor confidence and macroeconomic resilience.
Human capital development must also remain central to any long-term strategy for managing oil windfalls. A country’s greatest asset is not merely its natural resources but the productivity and innovation of its people, and in Nigeria, more attention has been placed on the former. For so long, Nigeria’s budget allocation has told this story, as the government has been glaringly complacent in investing in quality education, healthcare systems, technical training, and research institutions, which can unlock enormous economic potential. If the government aligns with the necessities, Nigeria’s youthful population represents a demographic advantage that can only be realised through sustained investment in human development.
Investment from the higher oil prices should be channelled to the educational sector, and more emphasis should be placed on science, technology, engineering, and vocational skills that align with the demands of a modern economy. Strengthening universities, technical institutes, and research centres can foster innovation, entrepreneurship, and technological advancement. Similarly, improving healthcare infrastructure enhances workforce productivity and reduces the economic burden of disease. Will the government ever shift reasonable investment to these sectors?
Another strategic use of all the categorised oil windfalls is the expansion of social protection systems that shield vulnerable populations during economic shocks. What is unbeknownst to the government is that while infrastructure and industrial investments drive long-term growth, social protection programs help ensure that economic gains are broadly shared. Helping the poor, creating jobs for young people, and supporting small businesses can make society more stable and grow the economy from the ground up.
Lack of transparency and accountability has been anathema that has hindered the progress of growth in Nigeria. The right implementation will ultimately determine whether Nigeria successfully transforms this oil windfall into lasting prosperity. Public trust in government fiscal management has often been undermined by corruption, waste, and non-transparent financial practices. Once there are clear frameworks for managing windfall revenues, this becomes essential. Also, if it is monitored by neutral institutions that are not controlled by politicians, while information about spending is made available to the populace, the media, and the National Assembly supervises how the funds are spent, it will translate to what benefits the country instead of short-term political interest.
A section of the economy that calls for action is the need to improve the efficiency of government institution capacity within agencies responsible for revenue management, budgeting, and project execution. It is a well-known fact that when government institutions are strong and effective, public money is less likely to be wasted, stolen, or misused, and investments produce measurable economic outcomes. This institutional strengthening should include digital financial systems, procurement transparency, and improved project monitoring mechanisms.
Nigeria’s policymakers must immediately put in place clear fiscal rules governing the use of oil windfalls. This will help define how excess revenues are distributed between savings, infrastructure investment, debt reduction, and social programs, and this will also help Nigeria prevent the politically driven spending patterns that have historically undermined effective resource management.
Another question confronting Nigeria is not whether oil prices will rise again in the future, but whether the country will finally break the cycle of squandered windfalls. It is to the country’s advantage that the current crisis has pushed oil prices above the budget benchmark, creating a temporary revenue advantage, but it must be noted that temporary advantages become transformative only when they are guided by deliberate policy choices and long-term vision.
Nigeria possesses immense economic potential. With a large domestic market, abundant natural resources, and a vibrant entrepreneurial population, the country is well-positioned to achieve sustained growth. This potential requires disciplined management of national wealth, particularly during periods of resource windfalls.
The common saying that a word is enough for the wise is directed to policymakers to understand that, if managed wisely, the current surge in oil revenues could strengthen fiscal buffers, modernise infrastructure, diversify the economy, and invest in human capital. The obvious here is that the investments would not only protect Nigeria against future oil price volatility but also lay the foundation for a more resilient and prosperous economy.
The lesson from global experience, as it has always been, is that resource windfalls do not automatically translate into national prosperity. Nigeria’s leaders must understand that, without exception, countries that succeed are those that convert temporary commodity gains into permanent economic assets. Nigeria now stands at such an intersection, which requires turning crisis-driven oil gains into strategic investments; the nation can transform a moment of geopolitical turbulence into an opportunity for lasting economic resilience and national wealth.
Blaise, a journalist and PR professional, writes from Lagos and can be reached via: [email protected]
By Prince Charles Dickson, PhD
“And Jesus said to Judas… what you are going to do, do quickly.”
There is a hard, almost rude lesson in that line. History does not wait for the timid to finish their committee meeting. Politics, especially Nigerian politics, is not kind to hesitation dressed as strategy. It rewards those who understand timing, nerve, structure, and the brutal arithmetic of power. That is where the Nigerian opposition now stands: not at the edge of impossibility, but at the edge of urgency.
The first truth is the one opposition politicians do not enjoy hearing at rallies where microphones are loud, and introspection is scarce. They are not getting it right. The evidence is not only in Tinubu’s strength, but in their own disorder. INEC said on February 5, 2026, that there were now 21 registered political parties and warned that persistent internal leadership crises within parties pose a serious threat to democratic consolidation. Eight days later, the commission formally released the notice and timetable for the 2027 general elections. In other words, this is no longer the season of abstract grumbling. The whistle has gone. The race is live.
Yet the opposition often behaves like students who entered the examination hall with righteous anger but forgot their pens. Too much of its energy is spent on lamentation, rumours, courtroom oxygen, personality feuds, and that old Nigerian hobby of mistaking noise for architecture. You cannot defeat an incumbent machine by forming a WhatsApp coalition of wounded egos and calling it national salvation. Voters may clap for drama, but they still ask the unromantic question: who is in charge, what is the plan, and why should we trust you with the keys?
Now comes the more uncomfortable truth. The opposition is not facing an ordinary incumbent. It is facing Bola Ahmed Tinubu, a man whose political DNA was forged in opposition. He is not merely benefiting from power; he understands opposition as craft, pressure, infiltration, timing, persistence, and theatre. In his June 12, 2025, Democracy Day speech, he taunted rivals by saying it was “a pleasure to witness” their disarray, while also reminding Nigerians that he once stood almost alone against an overbearing ruling machine. This was not casual banter. It was a warning shot from a politician who knows both the grammar of resistance and the machinery of incumbency.
That is why copying Tinubu’s old template will not be enough. Yes, the coalition instinct is understandable. In July 2025, major opposition figures, including Atiku Abubakar and Peter Obi, aligned under the ADC banner, presenting themselves as a bulwark against one-party drift, with David Mark as interim chairman. But here is the problem: Tinubu’s own coalition history worked not simply because men gathered in one room and glared at the ruling party. It worked because there was a disciplined merger logic, state-level anchoring, message coordination, and a ruthless understanding of elite bargaining. What the present opposition sometimes offers instead is photocopy politics with low toner: a coalition of convenience trying to frighten a man who practically wrote the Nigerian handbook on political accommodation, defection management, and patient conquest.
This is also why the opposition’s moral complaint, though not baseless, cannot be its only language. Yes, concerns about democratic shrinkage are real. Tinubu himself publicly denied that Nigeria is moving toward a one-party state, even as defections from opposition parties to the APC intensified and his own party welcomed them. But to say “democracy is in danger” is not yet the same thing as building a democratic alternative. Nigerians do not eat constitutional anxiety for breakfast. They want a credible opposition that can protect pluralism and still explain food prices, jobs, security, power supply, transport costs, and what exactly it would do on Monday morning after taking office.
On the government’s side, the picture is mixed enough to make both triumphalism and apocalypse look unserious. Reuters reported this week that the World Bank expects Nigeria’s economy to grow by about 4.2% in 2026, with external buffers improving and the debt-to-GDP ratio falling for the first time in a decade. Inflation had eased to 15.06% in February from roughly 33% in late 2024. Those are not imaginary numbers, and any fair-minded analysis must admit that Tinubu’s reforms have altered the macroeconomic conversation. But the same report warned that the Iran war has pushed fuel prices up by more than 50%, with obvious consequences for transport, food, and household pain. Add the continuing insecurity, underscored again this week by the killing of a Nigerian army general in Borno, and the government begins to look like a man who has repaired the roof but left half the house still flooding. That is not a collapse. It is not a command either. It is a meandering reform under political stress.
So, what must the opposition do, and do quickly? First, it must stop making Tinubu the only subject of the campaign. Anti-Tinubu is not a manifesto. It is a mood. Moods trend; structures win. Second, it must settle leadership questions early and publicly, because no voter wants to hire a rescue team still fighting over the steering wheel. Third, it needs an issue coalition, not just an elite coalition. Security, inflation, youth jobs, electricity, federalism, and institutional reform must become a coherent national offer, not a buffet of press conference talking points. Fourth, it must build from the states upward. Presidential romance without subnational organisation is political karaoke: loud, emotional, and usually off-key by the second verse.
Fifth, it must look seriously at the legal terrain. The Electoral Act 2026 has made party organisation even more central. PLAC notes that the new law tightens party registration rules, removes deemed registration, expands INEC’s regulatory discretion, and preserves the fact that candidates still need political parties as the vehicle for contesting most elective offices because independent candidacy is not permitted. In plain language, parties matter even more now. A fragmented opposition is therefore not just aesthetically untidy. It is strategically suicidal.
Still, there are dangers in the opposite direction, too. A desperate anti-Tinubu mega-bloc could become a cargo truck of incompatible ambitions. If all it offers is the promise to defeat one man, it may reproduce the same habits it condemns once power arrives. Nigeria does not need a ruling party so swollen that democracy gasps for air. But it also does not need an opposition whose only ideology is turn-by-turn revenge. The health of democracy lies somewhere between monopoly and mob. It requires competition with content, not merely competition with bitterness. Tinubu himself, in that same June 12 speech, defended multiparty politics even while mocking the opposition’s disorder. That irony should not be wasted. He has thrown them both an insult and an assignment.
So, yes, the opposition is right to worry. But worry is not a strategy. Outrage is not an organisation. The coalition is not coherent. And history is not sentimental. The man they are up against is ruthless, seasoned, and intimate with the dark arts of democratic combat. He knows the game. Some of his opponents are still learning the rules from old newspaper cuttings.
Which brings us back to the scripture. What you are going to do, do quickly. Not recklessly. Not hysterically. Quickly. Settle your house. Name your purpose. Offer something fresher than recycled indignation. Build a machine that is not merely anti-Tinubu but pro-Nigeria in a way ordinary Nigerians can feel in their pockets and in their pulse. Otherwise, the opposition will keep arriving at battle dressed in borrowed armour, only to discover that the tailor works for the man they came to unseat—May Nigeria win!
By Gloria Onosode
Nigeria is targeting an ambitious $1 trillion economy by 2030. To achieve this, women-led businesses must transition from mere passive observers to primary growth drivers at the heart of the economy and strategic participants in their respective industries.
According to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), the increased ownership rate of MSMEs by women represents a significant contribution to economic growth and job creation. Digital empowerment for these enterprises must move from being a social responsibility or gender support initiative to contributing to broader economic development.
To reach the $1 trillion GDP milestone, women-led businesses must be positioned to operate at a macroeconomic scale. This requires moving beyond subsistence trading and into the digital value chain. For instance, a fashion designer in Aba, through digital positioning, can access broader markets and commercial networks and thereby facilitate better record-keeping and data-driven decision-making, supporting improved financial record-keeping, which may be considered in credit assessments by financial institutions.
FairMoney Microfinance Bank (MFB), a bank licensed and regulated by the Central Bank of Nigeria, contributes to the digital transitioning of small businesses in Nigeria by providing tools specifically designed for the realities of the Nigerian entrepreneur. For women, whose businesses often fluctuate with seasonal demands or family needs, the ability to protect and grow capital is paramount. FairMoney MFB offers features that empower women to move from informal ‘under-the-mattress’ savings to digitised interest-bearing savings products. By embracing digital transition, tech-based saving platforms can enable business owners to set specific goals, such as purchasing new equipment, saving towards business goals in a disciplined manner, while earning interest at applicable rates.
For that business owner who requires immediate liquidity, our flexible savings feature offers interest while allowing for withdrawal access that is subject to applicable terms and conditions to cover emergency restocks. For longer-term scaling, our fixed-term savings feature allows entrepreneurs to lock away funds for a fixed period and accrue interest based on product terms, subject to terms and conditions. By automating savings and providing interest at applicable rates, FairMoney MFB is designed to support financial planning and resilience over time for women-led SMEs.
Nigerian women are among the most entrepreneurial globally, consistently defying structural barriers to build enterprises from the ground up. According to the Small and Medium Enterprise Development Agency of Nigeria (SMEDAN), Nigeria has approximately 39.6 million nano, micro, small, and medium enterprises. Charles Odii, Director General at SMEDAN in 2024, also recently shared that approximately 72% of these enterprises are now classified as being owned or led by women. This is a significant jump from previous years, which hovered around 40–43%, largely due to the surge in ‘nano’ and ‘micro’ home-based businesses. These female-led enterprises are the primary engines of job creation and community stability.
Despite this drive, women entrepreneurs face a unique set of structural hurdles that stifle their ability to scale. The ‘financing gap’ remains the most formidable obstacle. The World Bank IFC Nigeria2Equal initiative reports that while Nigeria has one of the highest female entrepreneurship rates globally, the credit gap for these women is estimated at over 2.9 trillion Naira, forcing them into the ‘savings and family’ funding model.
The case for supporting these businesses extends beyond equity; it is rooted in the ‘multiplier effect’. Research demonstrates that women reinvest up to 90% of their income into their families and communities, specifically in education, healthcare, and nutrition. Supporting these enterprises is, therefore, a direct investment in Nigeria’s human capital. By bringing these businesses into the formal sector, the accuracy of economic planning will be improved. When a woman-led SME flourishes, the benefits ripple across the entire socioeconomic landscape.
The future of the Nigerian economy is intrinsically tied to the success of its women. When we prioritise women-led businesses, we are not merely fulfilling a gender quota; we can contribute to unlocking economic potential across sectors. By bridging the digital gap and providing robust financial tools for saving and credit to women-led businesses, Nigeria can begin to support the growth of micro-enterprises over time. A $1 trillion Nigeria is not just a dream; it represents a significant opportunity that can be progressively realised by the resilient women entrepreneurs of our nation.
Gloria Onosode is the Director of Enterprise Sales at FairMoney Business
These days, surviving in Nigeria feels like a full-time job on its own.
Before the month even properly begins, salary has already been divided into transport, fuel, food, bills, subscriptions, and every other expense that somehow keeps increasing. For many 9–5ers, the routine has become painfully familiar: wake up early, battle traffic, survive the stress of work, battle traffic again, and get home completely drained, only to realise even the simple things that help you unwind now have to be carefully budgeted for.
Because in this economy, everybody is cutting costs. People are thinking twice before ordering food. They are postponing shopping plans. They are reducing unnecessary spending. And for many, one of the first things to go has been entertainment.
The same streaming platforms and premium subscriptions people once paid for without thinking have now become part of the “maybe next month” list. Not because people suddenly stopped loving movies, series, football, or reality TV, but because when inflation keeps rising, and fuel costs continue to affect everything, entertainment starts to feel like a luxury.
But that is exactly why affordability in entertainment matters now more than ever and why GOtv continues to stand out as a brand that genuinely keeps everyday Nigerians in mind.
Rather than assuming quality entertainment should only be accessible to people willing to spend heavily, GOtv has consistently positioned itself as a platform built with everyday Nigerians in mind, creating options that allow people to still enjoy premium entertainment without having to break the bank.
Take the GOtv Smallie package, for example.
For as low as ₦1,900 a month, subscribers get access to over 35 channels, including approximately 19 to 21 local channels, sports content, and 15+ channels across news, music, movies, lifestyle, kids, and general entertainment.
And for those who prefer longer payment plans, it is also available in:
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Quarterly – ₦5,100
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Annual – ₦15,000
What makes this even better is that, despite being the most affordable package, Smallie still offers something for everyone.
It is not one of those basic plans where you pay less and get almost nothing. Whether you are the family member who loves African movies, the sports enthusiast who never wants to miss a match, the parent looking for kids’ content, or the person who just wants background TV after a stressful day, there is something to watch.
And for viewers who want even more variety, GOtv has other packages across different price points:
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GOtv Jinja – ₦3,900
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GOtv Jolli – ₦5,800
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GOtv Max – ₦8,500
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GOtv Supa – ₦11,400
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GOtv Supa Plus – ₦16,800
So, whether you’re going for the most affordable option or something with a more premium feel, there’s always a GOtv package that fits comfortably into different lifestyles and budgets.
At a time when everyday decisions are increasingly shaped by cost, GOtv quietly fills an important gap by keeping quality entertainment within reach for more people, because beyond the hustle, the traffic, the deadlines, and the constant pressure of trying to keep up with life in today’s economy, there is still a need for simple moments of joy and escape. Those small pauses in the day where you can switch off, relax, and just enjoy something light without overthinking it.
And that’s really the point: entertainment shouldn’t feel like another financial burden.
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