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How Can Nigeria Build on Payment Evolution Brought About by Naira Shortage?

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By Mxolisi Msutwana

All around the world, governments are trying to encourage cashless payments. Their reasons for doing so are multiple, including expanded financial inclusion and transparency, wanting to formalise the informal economy and drive economic growth and innovation. Nigeria is no exception. By the end of 2022, the move towards a cashless policy as a means to eradicate cash was high on the government’s agenda in Nigeria. In early 2023, a bid by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) to introduce new banknotes and lower cash withdrawal amounts led to a serious shortage of cash.

Unfortunately, there were not enough new notes in circulation to serve the needs of a country that’s historically been as heavily cash-dependent as Nigeria. While the initiative itself is a step in the right direction, there’s no denying that it caused issues.

The economic effects were far from positive. According to S&P, amidst widespread protests, many Nigerians were left scrabbling for ways to pay for day-to-day goods and services. As a result, many people who’d never previously used digital payment services had little choice but to adopt them. Fintechs, in particular, stepped up to the plate, helping Nigerians meet a fundamental need at a time when their lives had been massively disrupted. A report from Nigeria’s Inter-Bank Settlement System (NIBSS) found that there was a 125% increase in mobile payments during January compared with the same period in the previous year. Additionally, Bloomberg reports the value of mobile-money transactions has jumped by a quarter to 2.5 trillion naira (US$5.4 billion).

As the shortages abate, it will be crucial that digital payment providers do not let the resulting move to digital payments go to waste. In a country with a long history of relying on cash as the primary means of payment, they will have to work hard to retain the customers they’ve gained in recent months and position themselves for continued accelerated growth.

How digital payment providers evolved 

Before looking at how digital payment providers can do so, it’s worth taking a deeper look at how they responded to the situation. That the crisis represented a particularly big opportunity for digital payment providers that allow people to make transactions with their mobile phones is to be expected. After all, as Bloomberg points out, just under 40% of Nigerians have access to bank accounts, compared with mobile-phone penetration of 117% in the country, giving them the opportunity to expand rapidly. Given the comparatively low levels of mobile money use prior to the cash shortages, it should be clear just how much potential for growth there was (and still is).

Of course, those operators still had to work hard to ensure that they were able to properly service the growing pool of customers looking to make and receive digital payments. MTN Nigeria, for example, is planning to deploy 224 000 agents to boost the adoption of mobile wallet use.

At Baxi, meanwhile, we onboarded record numbers of agents, ensuring that people were able to easily send and receive money. We also supported merchants in providing solutions for payment collections during that period by deploying additional point-of-sale (POS) terminals, allowing customers to pay via card and transfers, and allowing merchants to generate account numbers for payment collections.

Of course, not everything went according to plan for every digital payment provider. As a recent column in TechCabal pointed out, many Nigerians complained about the high failure rate in digital transactions.

Cash will always be important 

Even in the face of such growth, it’s important to remember how dominant cash has historically been in Nigeria. Despite cashless transactions rising 42% in 2022, cash-based payments still accounted for 63% of all POS transactions in the same year, according to the FIS Worldpay Global Payments Report 2022. That’s significantly higher than the global average of 17.9%. It also puts Nigeria well ahead of the average for the Middle East and Africa region, where cash accounts for 44% of POS payments.

The reasons for the dominance of cash in Nigeria are deep-seated too. They range from a lack of access to bank accounts (just 39% of Nigerians aged 15 and older have a formal bank account) to trust issues with the formal economy. An extensive informal economy and infrastructure challenges also play significant roles, while the power of force of habit can’t be ignored either.

In other words, digital payment and mobile money providers cannot simply assume that the boon they’ve experienced as a result of the cash shortage will continue unabated. They also can’t assume that cash will be displaced. It will continue to play a significant role in Nigerian society for a long time to come.

Instead, they should focus on using the situation to ensure that Nigerians and merchants alike understand the very real advantages that digital payments and mobile money have in specific situations.

Security, convenience, and increased access

When it comes to consumers, for instance, payment providers need to highlight that the day-to-day transactions that they enabled during the cash shortage were just the start of what they can offer.

Of course, it’s important to keep emphasising that digital payments offer consumers better security and convenience, especially when it comes to large transactions.

But it’s also important to highlight the additional benefits that digital payments offer. Thanks to advanced integrations, for example, customers can access audio and video streaming services without needing a formal bank account. In many cases, the promise of access to something you didn’t previously have access to is a much more powerful incentive than being able to complete existing tasks more conveniently.

For merchants, meanwhile, security is also a benefit that can continue to be emphasised. For small businesses especially, using electronic channels makes tracking your cash-generating activities easier than ever.

Here again, though, there are other significant benefits that should be emphasised, including the ability to automate takings. The digital records made available by having digital payment offerings as an option can also ease the path towards formalisation for small businesses. That, in turn, makes it easier to access things like growth financing.

An opportunity not to be missed

Ultimately, there’s never been a better time for digital payment providers to press home what they can offer to both consumers and merchants. But they must make the most of that opportunity. Their best hope for doing so isn’t to degenerate the role of cash but to emphasise the very real opportunities they can help unlock.

Mxolisi Msutwana is the Chief Operating Officer at Baxi

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The Future of Payments: Key Trends to Watch in 2025

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By Luke Kyohere

The global payments landscape is undergoing a rapid transformation. New technologies coupled with the rising demand for seamless, secure, and efficient transactions has spurred on an exciting new era of innovation and growth. With 2025 fast approaching, here are important trends that will shape the future of payments:

1. The rise of real-time payments

Until recently, real-time payments have been used in Africa for cross-border mobile money payments, but less so for traditional payments. We are seeing companies like Mastercard investing in this area, as well as central banks in Africa putting focus on this. 

2. Cashless payments will increase

In 2025, we will see the continued acceleration of cashless payments across Africa. B2B payments in particular will also increase. Digital payments began between individuals but are now becoming commonplace for larger corporate transactions. 

3. Digital currency will hit mainstream

In the cryptocurrency space, we will see an increase in the use of stablecoins like United States Digital Currency (USDC) and Tether (USDT) which are linked to US dollars. These will come to replace traditional cryptocurrencies as their price point is more stable. This year, many countries will begin preparing for Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs), government-backed digital currencies which use blockchain. 

The increased uptake of digital currencies reflects the maturity of distributed ledger technology and improved API availability. 

4. Increased government oversight

As adoption of digital currencies will increase, governments will also put more focus into monitoring these flows. In particular, this will centre on companies and banks rather than individuals. The goal of this will be to control and occasionally curb runaway foreign exchange (FX) rates.

5. Business leaders buy into AI technology

In 2025, we will see many business leaders buying into AI through respected providers relying on well-researched platforms and huge data sets. Most companies don’t have the budget to invest in their own research and development in AI, so many are now opting to ‘buy’ into the technology rather than ‘build’ it themselves. Moreover, many businesses are concerned about the risks associated with data ownership and accuracy so buying software is another way to avoid this risk. 

6. Continued AI Adoption in Payments

In payments, the proliferation of AI will continue to improve user experience and increase security.  To detect fraud, AI is used to track patterns and payment flows in real-time. If unusual activity is detected, the technology can be used to flag or even block payments which may be fraudulent. 

When it comes to user experience, we will also see AI being used to improve the interface design of payment platforms. The technology will also increasingly be used for translation for international payment platforms.

7. Rise of Super Apps

To get more from their platforms, mobile network operators are building comprehensive service platforms, integrating multiple payment experiences into a single app. This reflects the shift of many users moving from text-based services to mobile apps. Rather than offering a single service, super apps are packing many other services into a single app. For example, apps which may have previously been used primarily for lending, now have options for saving and paying bills. 

8. Business strategy shift

Recent major technological changes will force business leaders to focus on much shorter prediction and reaction cycles. Because the rate of change has been unprecedented in the past year, this will force decision-makers to adapt quickly, be decisive and nimble. 

As the payments space evolves,  businesses, banks, and governments must continually embrace innovation, collaboration, and prioritise customer needs. These efforts build a more inclusive, secure, and efficient payment system that supports local to global economic growth – enabling true financial inclusion across borders.

Luke Kyohere is the Group Chief Product and Innovation Officer at Onafriq

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Ghana’s Democratic Triumph: A Call to Action for Nigeria’s 2027 Elections

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In a heartfelt statement released today, the Conference of Nigeria Political Parties (CNPP) has extended its warmest congratulations to Ghana’s President-Elect, emphasizing the importance of learning from Ghana’s recent electoral success as Nigeria gears up for its 2027 general elections.

In a statement signed by its Deputy National Publicity Secretary, Comrade James Ezema, the CNPP highlighted the need for Nigeria to reclaim its status as a leader in democratic governance in Africa.

“The recent victory of Ghana’s President-Elect is a testament to the maturity and resilience of Ghana’s democracy,” the CNPP stated. “As we celebrate this achievement, we must reflect on the lessons that Nigeria can learn from our West African neighbour.”

The CNPP’s message underscored the significance of free, fair, and credible elections, a standard that Ghana has set and one that Nigeria has previously achieved under former President Goodluck Jonathan in 2015. “It is high time for Nigeria to reclaim its position as a beacon of democracy in Africa,” the CNPP asserted, calling for a renewed commitment to the electoral process.

Central to CNPP’s message is the insistence that “the will of the people must be supreme in Nigeria’s electoral processes.” The umbrella body of all registered political parties and political associations in Nigeria CNPP emphasized the necessity of an electoral system that genuinely reflects the wishes of the Nigerian populace. “We must strive to create an environment where elections are free from manipulation, violence, and intimidation,” the CNPP urged, calling on the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) to take decisive action to ensure the integrity of the electoral process.

The CNPP also expressed concern over premature declarations regarding the 2027 elections, stating, “It is disheartening to note that some individuals are already announcing that there is no vacancy in Aso Rock in 2027. This kind of statement not only undermines the democratic principles that our nation holds dear but also distracts from the pressing need for the current administration to earn the trust of the electorate.”

The CNPP viewed the upcoming elections as a pivotal moment for Nigeria. “The 2027 general elections present a unique opportunity for Nigeria to reclaim its position as a leader in democratic governance in Africa,” it remarked. The body called on all stakeholders — including the executive, legislature, judiciary, the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), and civil society organisations — to collaborate in ensuring that elections are transparent, credible, and reflective of the will of the Nigerian people.

As the most populous African country prepares for the 2027 elections, the CNPP urged all Nigerians to remain vigilant and committed to democratic principles. “We must work together to ensure that our elections are free from violence, intimidation, and manipulation,” the statement stated, reaffirming the CNPP’s commitment to promoting a peaceful and credible electoral process.

In conclusion, the CNPP congratulated the President-Elect of Ghana and the Ghanaian people on their remarkable achievements.

“We look forward to learning from their experience and working together to strengthen democracy in our region,” the CNPP concluded.

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The Need to Promote Equality, Equity and Fairness in Nigeria’s Proposed Tax Reforms

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By Kenechukwu Aguolu

The proposed tax reform, involving four tax bills introduced by the Federal Government, has received significant criticism. Notably, it was rejected by the Governors’ Forum but was still forwarded to the National Assembly. Unlike the various bold economic decisions made by this government, concessions will likely need to be made on these tax reforms, which involve legislative amendments and therefore cannot be imposed by the executive. This article highlights the purposes of taxation, the qualities of a good tax system, and some of the implications of the proposed tax reforms.

One of the major purposes of taxation is to generate revenue for the government to finance its activities. A good tax system should raise sufficient revenue for the government to fund its operations, and support economic and infrastructural development. For any country to achieve meaningful progress, its tax-to-GDP ratio should be at least 15%. Currently, Nigeria’s tax-to-GDP ratio is less than 11%. The proposed tax reforms aim to increase this ratio to 18% within the next three years.

A good tax system should also promote income redistribution and equality by implementing progressive tax policies. In line with this, the proposed tax reforms favour low-income earners. For example, individuals earning less than one million naira annually are exempted from personal income tax. Additionally, essential goods and services such as food, accommodation, and transportation, which constitute a significant portion of household consumption for low- and middle-income groups, are to be exempted from VAT.

In addition to equality, a good tax system should ensure equity and fairness, a key area of contention surrounding the proposed reforms. If implemented, the amendments to the Value Added Tax could lead to a significant reduction in the federal allocation for some states; impairing their ability to finance government operations and development projects. The VAT amendments should be holistically revisited to promote fairness and national unity.

The establishment of a single agency to collect government taxes, the Nigeria Revenue Service, could reduce loopholes that have previously resulted in revenue losses, provided proper controls are put in place. It is logically easier to monitor revenue collection by one agency than by multiple agencies. However, this is not a magical solution. With automation, revenue collection can be seamless whether it is managed by one agency or several, as long as monitoring and accountability measures are implemented effectively.

The proposed tax reforms by the Federal Government are well-intentioned. However, all concerns raised by Nigerians should be looked into, and concessions should be made where necessary. Policies are more effective when they are adapted to suit the unique characteristics of a nation, rather than adopted wholesale. A good tax system should aim to raise sufficient revenue, ensure equitable income distribution, and promote equality, equity, and fairness.

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