Feature/OPED
Is Ethiopia Africa’s Sleeping Fintech Giant?
By Yohannes Tsehai
The fintech sector has been one of Africa’s biggest technology success stories. According to one report, the continent’s 678 fintech startups raised more than $2.7 billion between 2021 and August 2023. Additionally, almost all of the continent’s unicorns (startups valued at more than $1 billion) are in the fintech sector.
The majority of that success has, however, come from the continent’s three biggest startup markets: South Africa, Kenya, and Nigeria. In fact, 68% of African fintech startups come from these “big three” markets. But things are steadily changing. More and more countries are realising the benefits that come with an active fintech ecosystem, with a growing number of entrepreneurs in those countries also looking to enter the space.
One such country is Ethiopia. Home to more than 120 million people (making it the second most populous country in Africa), the country has many of the right ingredients to become Africa’s next big fintech giant. In addition to the country’s population size, it’s home to large numbers of unbanked people. At the same time, the country continues to experience high economic growth and rapidly increasing connectivity levels. With those and other enabling factors in place, could Ethiopia be Africa’s next big fintech giant?
A changing landscape
A few years ago, that’s not a question many would have dared to ask. More recently, however, several things have changed, which suggests that Ethiopia is waking up to, and embracing its fintech potential.
Take telco licensing, for example. Ethiopia has previously been closed off, with only the state-owned Ethio telecom allowed to operate. But Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed sees the liberalisation of the country’s telecommunications sector as key to its economic future. As such, the country has opened up to other operators. In October 2022, Safaricom became Ethiopia’s second official operator.
In the ensuing months, it has built up a 4 million-strong customer base and added 1.2 million users to its M-Pesa mobile money platform. Over time, those numbers will continue to grow. And while the bidding process for a third telco license has had to be put on ice for the moment, Ethiopia’s strong economic growth means that it’s only a matter of time before one is granted.
Those telcos will play a critical role in establishing an Ethiopian fintech ecosystem too. Right now, the country has a 53.5% mobile penetration rate but mobile connections grew by nearly 18% between 2022 and 2023. With 75% of the country’s population reportedly unbanked, increasing connectivity levels is one of the most powerful ways of giving people access to financial products, both from telcos and third parties, as demonstrated by Ethio telecom’s mobile money app Telebirr having 39.3 million customers.
Another significant move is the establishment of an Ethiopian stock exchange. The exchange, which is set to open in 2024 or 2025, is designed to be a source of funding for the small and medium-sized companies that form the backbone of the country’s economy. For local fintechs looking to raise the capital they need to expand at scale, it could prove critical.
Developing supportive policies
The Ethiopian government has also made significant strides when it comes to developing policies that encourage the growth of a fintech ecosystem. One of the most significant such policies is the National Financial Inclusion Strategy.
According to a research paper published by the GSMA, the aim is to increase financial inclusion from 46% to 70% of all adults by 2025. One of the key avenues it’s identified for doing so is by scaling digital payments through mobile money services. The country additionally aims to increase the use of digital payments from 20% of all adults in 2020 to 49% by 2025.
These policies could be dramatically transformative for both the Ethiopian economy and its people. According to the GSMA, mobile money services “could lift 700,000 people out of poverty, add US$5.3 billion to Ethiopia’s GDP, increase tax revenue by US$300 million and provide a cushion for the economic shocks experienced by almost 40% of Ethiopian households.”
There is, admittedly, a long way to go before mobile money can drive those advancements. GSMA figures show that just 4.2% of adult women and 5.1% of adult men had mobile money accounts in 2022. That said, those numbers are significantly higher than the 0.1% and 0.6% who had accounts in 2017. This suggests that, as much as there’s significant room for mobile money growth in Ethiopia, there’s a sizable and growing appetite too with increasingly accessible outlets.
Putting policy into practice
For policy to be effective, however, it has to be matched with practices that encourage the growth of fintech. Here, too, there are encouraging signs from Ethiopia.
The government has, for instance, used the mobile banking service HelloCash to digitise social protection payments under the flagship Productive Safety Net Programme (PNSP). Additionally, it’s increasingly accepting digital payments for public services such as utilities and has mandated digital-only payments for fuel purchases. The Ministry of Trade, meanwhile, has adopted Ethio’s Telebirr services and now allows traders to pay for services like commercial registration, trade licences and trade name-related service fee payments.
In conjunction with the adoption of mobile money by government departments, its growing use by private sector players such as mid-sized brands like supermarkets, petrol stations, and SMEs should help further drive their adoption.
Growth beyond mobile money
Of course, there are still other things that need to be put in place before Ethiopia really starts to achieve its fintech potential. Reliable interoperability, for example, remains a challenge, as does a shortage of access points and a lack of high-quality agent networks.
None of those challenges are, however, insurmountable. And, given the success that’s already accompanied the adoption of mobile money, overcoming them will help unlock other services that enable digital financial inclusion which have commenced (such as insurance, micro-financing, and savings products).
As more and more of those solutions fall into place, Ethiopia will be well on its way to unlocking its potential and becoming Africa’s next fintech giant.
Yohannes Tsehai is the Country Manager for Onafriq Ethiopia
By Luke Kyohere
The global payments landscape is undergoing a rapid transformation. New technologies coupled with the rising demand for seamless, secure, and efficient transactions has spurred on an exciting new era of innovation and growth. With 2025 fast approaching, here are important trends that will shape the future of payments:
1. The rise of real-time payments
Until recently, real-time payments have been used in Africa for cross-border mobile money payments, but less so for traditional payments. We are seeing companies like Mastercard investing in this area, as well as central banks in Africa putting focus on this.
2. Cashless payments will increase
In 2025, we will see the continued acceleration of cashless payments across Africa. B2B payments in particular will also increase. Digital payments began between individuals but are now becoming commonplace for larger corporate transactions.
3. Digital currency will hit mainstream
In the cryptocurrency space, we will see an increase in the use of stablecoins like United States Digital Currency (USDC) and Tether (USDT) which are linked to US dollars. These will come to replace traditional cryptocurrencies as their price point is more stable. This year, many countries will begin preparing for Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs), government-backed digital currencies which use blockchain.
The increased uptake of digital currencies reflects the maturity of distributed ledger technology and improved API availability.
4. Increased government oversight
As adoption of digital currencies will increase, governments will also put more focus into monitoring these flows. In particular, this will centre on companies and banks rather than individuals. The goal of this will be to control and occasionally curb runaway foreign exchange (FX) rates.
5. Business leaders buy into AI technology
In 2025, we will see many business leaders buying into AI through respected providers relying on well-researched platforms and huge data sets. Most companies don’t have the budget to invest in their own research and development in AI, so many are now opting to ‘buy’ into the technology rather than ‘build’ it themselves. Moreover, many businesses are concerned about the risks associated with data ownership and accuracy so buying software is another way to avoid this risk.
6. Continued AI Adoption in Payments
In payments, the proliferation of AI will continue to improve user experience and increase security. To detect fraud, AI is used to track patterns and payment flows in real-time. If unusual activity is detected, the technology can be used to flag or even block payments which may be fraudulent.
When it comes to user experience, we will also see AI being used to improve the interface design of payment platforms. The technology will also increasingly be used for translation for international payment platforms.
7. Rise of Super Apps
To get more from their platforms, mobile network operators are building comprehensive service platforms, integrating multiple payment experiences into a single app. This reflects the shift of many users moving from text-based services to mobile apps. Rather than offering a single service, super apps are packing many other services into a single app. For example, apps which may have previously been used primarily for lending, now have options for saving and paying bills.
8. Business strategy shift
Recent major technological changes will force business leaders to focus on much shorter prediction and reaction cycles. Because the rate of change has been unprecedented in the past year, this will force decision-makers to adapt quickly, be decisive and nimble.
As the payments space evolves, businesses, banks, and governments must continually embrace innovation, collaboration, and prioritise customer needs. These efforts build a more inclusive, secure, and efficient payment system that supports local to global economic growth – enabling true financial inclusion across borders.
Luke Kyohere is the Group Chief Product and Innovation Officer at Onafriq
In a heartfelt statement released today, the Conference of Nigeria Political Parties (CNPP) has extended its warmest congratulations to Ghana’s President-Elect, emphasizing the importance of learning from Ghana’s recent electoral success as Nigeria gears up for its 2027 general elections.
In a statement signed by its Deputy National Publicity Secretary, Comrade James Ezema, the CNPP highlighted the need for Nigeria to reclaim its status as a leader in democratic governance in Africa.
“The recent victory of Ghana’s President-Elect is a testament to the maturity and resilience of Ghana’s democracy,” the CNPP stated. “As we celebrate this achievement, we must reflect on the lessons that Nigeria can learn from our West African neighbour.”
The CNPP’s message underscored the significance of free, fair, and credible elections, a standard that Ghana has set and one that Nigeria has previously achieved under former President Goodluck Jonathan in 2015. “It is high time for Nigeria to reclaim its position as a beacon of democracy in Africa,” the CNPP asserted, calling for a renewed commitment to the electoral process.
Central to CNPP’s message is the insistence that “the will of the people must be supreme in Nigeria’s electoral processes.” The umbrella body of all registered political parties and political associations in Nigeria CNPP emphasized the necessity of an electoral system that genuinely reflects the wishes of the Nigerian populace. “We must strive to create an environment where elections are free from manipulation, violence, and intimidation,” the CNPP urged, calling on the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) to take decisive action to ensure the integrity of the electoral process.
The CNPP also expressed concern over premature declarations regarding the 2027 elections, stating, “It is disheartening to note that some individuals are already announcing that there is no vacancy in Aso Rock in 2027. This kind of statement not only undermines the democratic principles that our nation holds dear but also distracts from the pressing need for the current administration to earn the trust of the electorate.”
The CNPP viewed the upcoming elections as a pivotal moment for Nigeria. “The 2027 general elections present a unique opportunity for Nigeria to reclaim its position as a leader in democratic governance in Africa,” it remarked. The body called on all stakeholders — including the executive, legislature, judiciary, the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), and civil society organisations — to collaborate in ensuring that elections are transparent, credible, and reflective of the will of the Nigerian people.
As the most populous African country prepares for the 2027 elections, the CNPP urged all Nigerians to remain vigilant and committed to democratic principles. “We must work together to ensure that our elections are free from violence, intimidation, and manipulation,” the statement stated, reaffirming the CNPP’s commitment to promoting a peaceful and credible electoral process.
In conclusion, the CNPP congratulated the President-Elect of Ghana and the Ghanaian people on their remarkable achievements.
“We look forward to learning from their experience and working together to strengthen democracy in our region,” the CNPP concluded.
By Kenechukwu Aguolu
The proposed tax reform, involving four tax bills introduced by the Federal Government, has received significant criticism. Notably, it was rejected by the Governors’ Forum but was still forwarded to the National Assembly. Unlike the various bold economic decisions made by this government, concessions will likely need to be made on these tax reforms, which involve legislative amendments and therefore cannot be imposed by the executive. This article highlights the purposes of taxation, the qualities of a good tax system, and some of the implications of the proposed tax reforms.
One of the major purposes of taxation is to generate revenue for the government to finance its activities. A good tax system should raise sufficient revenue for the government to fund its operations, and support economic and infrastructural development. For any country to achieve meaningful progress, its tax-to-GDP ratio should be at least 15%. Currently, Nigeria’s tax-to-GDP ratio is less than 11%. The proposed tax reforms aim to increase this ratio to 18% within the next three years.
A good tax system should also promote income redistribution and equality by implementing progressive tax policies. In line with this, the proposed tax reforms favour low-income earners. For example, individuals earning less than one million naira annually are exempted from personal income tax. Additionally, essential goods and services such as food, accommodation, and transportation, which constitute a significant portion of household consumption for low- and middle-income groups, are to be exempted from VAT.
In addition to equality, a good tax system should ensure equity and fairness, a key area of contention surrounding the proposed reforms. If implemented, the amendments to the Value Added Tax could lead to a significant reduction in the federal allocation for some states; impairing their ability to finance government operations and development projects. The VAT amendments should be holistically revisited to promote fairness and national unity.
The establishment of a single agency to collect government taxes, the Nigeria Revenue Service, could reduce loopholes that have previously resulted in revenue losses, provided proper controls are put in place. It is logically easier to monitor revenue collection by one agency than by multiple agencies. However, this is not a magical solution. With automation, revenue collection can be seamless whether it is managed by one agency or several, as long as monitoring and accountability measures are implemented effectively.
The proposed tax reforms by the Federal Government are well-intentioned. However, all concerns raised by Nigerians should be looked into, and concessions should be made where necessary. Policies are more effective when they are adapted to suit the unique characteristics of a nation, rather than adopted wholesale. A good tax system should aim to raise sufficient revenue, ensure equitable income distribution, and promote equality, equity, and fairness.
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