Connect with us

Feature/OPED

Nigeria’s 2025 Reform Year: How Security, Markets, Industry and Innovation Are Building a $1trn Economy

Published

on

Nigeria $1trn Economy wale edun

By David Okon

Nigeria’s economic story in 2025 has not been defined by a single reform or headline moment. It has been shaped by sequencing, a deliberate effort to stabilise the macroeconomy, restore institutional credibility and align security, fiscal, and market policy towards growth. At the centre of that sequencing has been the Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Wale Edun, whose framing of security, capital mobilisation, and reform discipline has increasingly influenced how investors perceive Nigeria.

The year began with the government focused on repairing the analytical foundations of economic planning. In early 2025, Nigeria completed a long-awaited rebasing of its Gross Domestic Product to a 2019 base year, a technical exercise led by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) that expanded the measured contribution of services, ICT, and the informal economy. According to the NBS, the rebasing placed nominal GDP at about ₦372.8 trillion, equivalent to roughly $240–250 billion, giving policymakers and investors a clearer picture of economic structure and scale.

That reset mattered. It framed the fiscal choices that followed, including tighter expenditure controls, tax administration reforms, and coordination with monetary authorities to slow inflation and stabilise the foreign-exchange market. By the fourth quarter of 2025, inflation which had exceeded 24 percent earlier in the year, began a steady descent, reaching about 14.45 percent by November 2025. Foreign reserves strengthened toward $47 billion, reinforcing external buffers and signalling improved balance-of-payments management, trends noted by multilateral institutions including the World Bank and Afreximbank in their 2025 outlooks for Nigeria.

By mid-year, the reform narrative shifted from stabilisation to confidence, and nowhere was that clearer than in Nigeria’s capital markets. The Nigerian Exchange closed 2025 as one of Africa’s strongest-performing bourses, with the All-Share Index up about 49 per cent year-to-date by late December. Total market capitalisation across equities, debt, and ETFs rose to nearly ₦150 trillion, driven by strong earnings, bank recapitalisation, and new listings, according to the NGX Group chairman, Umaru Kwairanga.

Banking reform was pivotal. As part of recapitalisation efforts aimed at strengthening credit transmission and financial stability, Nigerian banks raised an estimated ₦2.5 trillion in fresh capital by December 2025 through rights issues, private placements, and public offers, according to NGX filings and Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approvals. The capital raising reinforced balance sheets and helped drive the market rally, underscoring the link between prudential reform and investor confidence.

Debt markets told a similar story. Between April and October 2025, companies raised over ₦753 billion through commercial paper issuances to finance short-term working capital needs across manufacturing, energy, and agriculture. “These figures are not just numbers; they represent confidence in our regulatory framework and the resilience of our market architecture,” said Emomotimi Agama, Director-General of the SEC, in a public briefing on capital-raising approvals. Landmark transactions, including a ₦500 billion climate-linked SPV and a ₦200 billion Elektron Finance bond, pointed to growing appetite for infrastructure and sustainable finance.

Corporate earnings reinforced the macro signal. MTN Nigeria Communications Plc, one of the Exchange’s largest listed companies, delivered one of the year’s most striking turnarounds. By the first nine months of 2025, the telecoms giant reported revenues of ₦3.73 trillion, up 57 per cent year-on-year, and profit after tax of about ₦750 billion, reversing prior losses. Capital expenditure exceeded ₦565 billion in the first half of the year alone, underscoring confidence in Nigeria’s digital future and the policy direction of the telecoms sector. Other blue-chip firms, including Dangote Cement, posted strong earnings with profit after tax exceeding ₦520 billion, reinforcing the sense that reform was translating into corporate resilience rather than contraction.

Amid these developments, Nigeria’s fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) sector also began to reflect the macroeconomic stabilisation delivered by policy reforms. After several years of losses driven by foreign-exchange volatility and inflationary pressures, major FMCG firms recorded a notable rebound in 2025 as currency conditions improved. The sector posted 54.1 per cent value growth in 2025, up from 34.3 per cent in 2024, according to a report by global data and analytics firm NielsenIQ.

Nigerian consumers continued to underpin demand, lifting the FMCG market to an estimated value of $25 billion, the second largest in Africa after South Africa’s $27.5 billion market. Across the continent, the five largest FMCG markets; South Africa, Nigeria, Egypt, Morocco and Kenya, together account for about $42 billion in total value.

Nigeria’s growth rate outpaced its peers. Egypt expanded by 23.1 per cent to $10.2 billion, Morocco grew 7.6 per cent to $7.5 billion, and Kenya increased 5.5 per cent to $3.3 billion, highlighting Nigeria’s outsized contribution to regional momentum.

At the company level, Nestlé Nigeria Plc returned to profitability, posting a ₦88.4 billion pre-tax profit in the first half of 2025, compared with a ₦252.5 billion loss in the same period a year earlier. The turnaround was supported by a 43 per cent increase in revenue to ₦581.1 billion and more stable cost structures.

Broader market data reflected the recovery. FMCG stocks delivered strong performances on the Nigerian Exchange, with the consumer goods index posting solid gains and several stocks recording returns of more than 100 per cent over the year as investor confidence returned to the sector.

“Nigeria’s FMCG story is one of grit and innovation,” said Dr Tayo Ajayi, a Lagos-based consumer market analyst. “Even when the economy is under pressure, Nigerians adjust their spending habits rather than stop spending. That adaptability is what keeps the sector alive.”

Energy and industrial policy formed the next layer of the reform arc. The Dangote Refinery, already operating at 650,000 barrels per day, confirmed plans to expand capacity to 1.4 million barrels per day, a move analysts say could significantly reduce fuel imports, ease pressure on foreign exchange, and strengthen Nigeria’s trade balance. The refinery has become emblematic of the government’s push to support large-scale local production as a substitute for imports and a magnet for global capital.

At the national level, NNPC Ltd continued its post-commercialisation reset. Group Chief Executive Bayo Ojulari said recent operational improvements reflected structural reforms within the company, noting that oil production rose from about 1.5 million barrels per day in 2024 to over 1.7 million barrels per day in 2025. He also highlighted the strategic importance of the 614-kilometre Ajaokuta–Kaduna–Kano (AKK) gas pipeline, designed to transport 2.2 billion standard cubic feet of gas per day, in unlocking industrial growth in northern Nigeria. Ojulari said the company’s focus for 2026 would be attracting new investments, lifting output to at least 1.8 million barrels per day, and supporting President Bola Tinubu’s directive for NNPC to help attract $30 billion in investments by 2030.

Infrastructure and future-facing sectors rounded out the year. Progress continued on the Lagos–Calabar Coastal Highway, with financing of approximately $1.126 billion secured by the Ministry of Finance and the Economy for Phase 1, Section 2 of the road, a signature project of the Tinubu administration. President Tinubu stated: “This is a major achievement, and closing this transaction means the Lagos–Calabar Coastal Highway will continue unimpeded. Our administration will continue to explore available funding opportunities to execute critical economic and priority infrastructural projects across the country”.

Port decentralisation plans in southern Nigeria, along with digital-skills programmes under the Ministry of Communications, Innovation and Digital Economy including the 3 Million Technical Talent (3MTT) initiative led by Minister Bosun Tijani, complemented the infrastructure drive (FMOCDE). The creative economy, encompassing film, music, fashion, and digital content, remained a fast-growing source of jobs and exports, increasingly recognised in policy circles as a serious economic asset.

The year’s most sensitive test of investor confidence came in its final week. On 25 December, US forces conducted targeted airstrikes against Islamic State-linked camps in Sokoto State, in coordination with Nigerian authorities. The government moved quickly to frame the action as part of a broader stability agenda. In a statement released on 28 December, Wale Edun stressed that “security and economic stability are inseparable,” describing the operation as “precise, intelligence-led and focused exclusively on terrorist elements that threaten lives, national stability, and economic activity.” He added that Nigeria “is not at war with itself or any nation, but is confronting terrorism alongside trusted international partners,” a distinction aimed squarely at markets and multilateral partners.

That framing captured the essence of Nigeria’s 2025 reform story. Security was not presented as an isolated military matter, but as an economic input, a prerequisite for investment, production, and growth. As Edun noted, “Every effort to safeguard Nigerians is, by definition, pro-growth and pro-investment,” a message calibrated for investors as markets prepared to reopen.

Nigeria enters 2026 with risks still evident, but with clearer direction. The proposed ₦58.18 trillion federal budget for 2026, anchored on revenue mobilisation, infrastructure spending, and deficit restraint, reflects an effort to consolidate gains rather than reset strategy. For investors, the signal from 2025 is not perfection, but coherence: policy, security, and markets increasingly moving in the same direction.

For an economy long defined by stops and starts, that alignment may prove the most valuable reform of all.

David Okon is a marketing communications and policy consultant at Quadrant MSL, a part of the Publicis Groupe and Troyka+InsightRedefini Group

Advertisement
Click to comment

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Feature/OPED

Designing Africa’s Power Systems for Reality, not Abstraction

Published

on

Louis Strydom Wärtsilä Energy

By Louis Strydom

Last year, I argued in my piece Lean Carbon, Just Power that a limited and temporary increase in African carbon emissions is justified to meet the continent’s urgent electrification needs.

That position was not a retreat from climate ambition. It laid out a credible lean-carbon pathway that reconciles power systems development realities with climate arithmetic.

The central question remains: not whether emissions must fall, but how much temporary headroom is tolerable to accelerate energy prosperity for a continent responsible for roughly 4% of global CO2.

The flexibility equation

The future of Africa’s electrification is neither “all renewables tomorrow” nor “gas indefinitely”. Intermittent renewables alone cannot power the continent’s fragile grids at scale.  Solar and wind require highly dispatchable power capacity to ensure the reliability of the system.

The real choice is not between renewables and fossil fuels in the abstract; it is between flexible firm power that complements solar and wind, and the de facto alternative: the increasing reliance on high-emissions diesel backup and widespread grid instability.

I argue that a realistic transition strategy must embrace “a capped carbon overdraft”: a strictly bounded, time-limited deployment of flexible power plants running on gas that supports the deployment of renewables and declines according to a binding schedule. This strategy means accepting minimal, temporary emissions to allow for a faster, cleaner and more resilient clean transition.

The response to this argument drew serious scrutiny. Three objections deserve a direct answer.

First: Does the case for flexible thermal power hold on a full life cycle basis?

It does. Our power system studies in Nigeria, Mozambique, and Southern Africa consistently reach the same conclusion – the least-cost long-term system is renewables-led, with flexible engines balancing variability. That holds across capital, fuel, maintenance, carbon pricing, and decommissioning. South Africa’s Integrated Resource Plan 2025, approved in October, makes the point concretely: it projects 105 GW of new capacity by 2039 with renewables as backbone, yet includes 6 GW of gas-to-power by 2030 explicitly for grid stability. Even the continent’s most industrialised economy concludes it needs dispatchable thermal capacity to underpin a renewables-heavy system. The question is not whether firm power is needed, but how to make it as clean and flexible as possible.

Second: Does this argument talk over Africa’s ambition to leapfrog fossil fuels?

No. It is designed around that ambition. Wärtsilä launched the world’s first large-scale 100% hydrogen-ready engine power plant concept in 2024, certified by TÜV SÜD, with orders opening in 2025. Ammonia engine tests now demonstrate up to 90% greenhouse gas reductions versus diesel. These are not roadmaps. They are ready-to-use technologies. The honest difficulty is timing. Sub-Saharan grids averaged 56 hours of monthly outages in 2024. The African diesel generator market is growing at nearly 7% a year, projected to reach 1.3 billion dollars by 2030. Nigerian businesses spend up to 40% of operational costs on fuel for backup power. That is the real counterfactual – not a continent neatly powered by sun and wind, but a billion-dollar diesel habit deepening every year the grid stays unreliable. Even Germany is tendering 10 GW of hydrogen-ready gas plants with mandated conversion by 2035 to 2040. If Europe’s largest economy needs transitional thermal flexibility to backstop an 80% renewables target, insisting low-income African nations skip that step is not climate leadership. It is development deferred.

Third: Does the carbon comparison include full life cycle methane?

It must. Methane leakage materially worsens the climate profile of gas-to-power because methane is a far more potent greenhouse gas than CO₂. If leakage exceeds a few per cent of production, gas loses its advantage over coal on a 20-year timeframe.

But the IEA notes that 40% of fossil methane emissions could be eliminated at no net cost with existing technology. My claim that gas has a lower footprint than coal is conditional on aggressive methane management – eliminating flaring and venting, enforcing measurement under frameworks like the EU Methane Regulation and OGMP 2.0. Without those conditions, the arithmetic fails. But the real choice in most African markets is not between pristine gas and pristine renewables. It is between ageing coal, a growing fleet of unregulated diesel generators, and new fuel-flexible plants that start or transition to gas and convert to hydrogen or ammonia on a contractual schedule. Displacing diesel and coal with well-managed gas in future-fuel-ready engines cuts CO₂, local pollution, and water use now, while building the infrastructure for fuels that eliminate fossil dependence.

The critics are right to demand rigour, full life cycle accounting, methane transparency, and credible timelines. Those are exactly the conditions that make a lean-carbon pathway work. Africa does not seek permission to pollute. It seeks the tools to end energy poverty while peaking emissions early and declining fast. Build engine power plants that run on available fuel today. Mandate their conversion tomorrow. The carbon overdraft stays small. The payback stays fast. And the technology to switch to sustainable fuels is already here.

Louis Strydom is the Director of Growth and Development for Africa and Europe at Wärtsilä Energy

Continue Reading

Feature/OPED

#LifeAfterLebaran: 5 WhatsApp Hacks to Stay Close with Family After Eid

Published

on

WhatsApp Hacks

You’re back home after mudik (homecoming), the suitcases are unpacked, and the excitement of being with family for Eid already feels like a long time ago. But just because Eid is over doesn’t mean the special connection of being with family has to fade. Here are the best group chat features for beating the post-Raya blues.

  1. Keep The Vibe Going by Sharing Ramadan Highlights

  • Keep the Memories Rolling with Status: Your Status feed doesn’t have to go quiet just because you’re back home. Post the most memorable throwback photos from the Eid reunion and add questions to spark responses like “What was your favourite Raya dish?” Add music and stickers to Status to keep the energy alive.

  • Express Yourself with Text Stickers: Turn inside jokes, family slogans, or a favourite Eid quote into a Text Sticker. It’s a quick, personalised way to add some warmth and humour to the group chat.

  • Skip the Stock Cards, Use Meta AI for a Personal Touch: Don’t just send a generic “Hi” or “Good morning” in the family chat. Use Meta AI to make your personalised greeting card or quickly transform a single photo into an animated image to send a heartfelt, animated check-in.

  1. Schedule The Next Reunion

  • Plan Your Next Post-Raya Get-Together: The blues often hit when the fun ends. Keep spirits up by creating a new Event in the group chat right away. Add event reminders so everyone doesn’t miss the opportunity to connect.

  • Schedule a Call, Don’t Just Say “Call Me”: Carry on the family tradition of staying connected, even when you’re miles apart. Tap + then Schedule a call in the Calls tab to lock in a regular “Post-Raya Check-in” video call. Send a reminder so everyone can join on time.

  1. Keep the Raya Spirit Alive by Getting Everyone Involved

  • Assign yourself a fun “tag” in the family group: Are you the one who always ends up cooking? Or the one who plans the itinerary for family trips? Or the master of GIFs who keeps everyone amused? Use the Member Tag feature in the group to give yourself a witty, funny, or practical role—”Next Event Planner” or “Tech Support Guru,” maybe?. Member tags can be customised for each group you’re in.

  • Share a Spontaneous ‘I Miss You’ Video: Did you just see something that reminded you of the reunion? Press and hold the camera icon to record a spontaneous Video Notes message. It’s faster than typing and instantly brings warmth and real-time emotion back into the group.

  1. Digital Hugs: Making the Long-Distance Moment Count

  • Share a Moving Memory: Don’t just send a still photo. Share a Live or Motion Photo to capture the ambient sound and movement of a recent Eid moment. It makes your memories feel more vivid, personal, and real—a perfect antidote to feeling disconnected.

  • Your Group Chat Background: Create a vibe with Meta AI: Don’t settle for a plain background for your family group chat. Use Meta AI to generate unique, custom chat wallpapers that reflect something uniquely memorable to your family: be it food, travel or a sport that unites everyone. Every time you open the chat, you’ll feel the warmth, not the distance.

  1. Make Sure No One Misses Out

No More FOMO: Send the Conversation History: Just added a family member who couldn’t make it to mudik? When adding a new member, you can now send up to 100 recent messages with the Group Message History feature. No need to recap; let them catch up instantly and feel included from the first tap.

Continue Reading

Feature/OPED

4 Ways AI is Changing How Nigerians Discover Businesses

Published

on

Olumide Balogun Google West Africa

By Olumide Balogun

Nigerians are natural explorers. Whether finding the best supplier in Balogun market, hunting down a recipe for party jollof, or looking for the most affordable flight out of Lagos, we are always searching.

Today, human curiosity is expanding, and the way Nigerians express it is evolving. We are speaking to our phones, snapping photos of things we like, and asking incredibly complex questions. For the Nigerian business owner, understanding this shift is a massive opportunity to get discovered by eager customers.

Here are four ways AI is rewriting how Nigerians search, along with simple steps to ensure your business is exactly what they find.

1. Visual Discovery is the New Normal

People are increasingly using their cameras to discover the world around them. Picture someone spotting a brilliant pair of sneakers in traffic and wanting to know exactly where to buy them. Today, shoppers simply take out their phones and search visually.

Tools like Google Lens now process over 25 billion visual searches every single month, and many of these searches are from people looking to make a purchase.

How to adapt: Your product’s visual appeal is paramount. Make sure you upload clear, high-quality images of your products to your website and social media. When a customer snaps a picture of a bag that looks like the one you sell, having great photos ensures your business pops up in their visual search results.

2. Conversations Replace Simple Keywords

Shoppers are asking highly nuanced, conversational questions. They are typing queries like, “Where can I find affordable leather shoes in Ikeja that are open on Sundays and do home delivery?”

To handle these detailed questions, new features like AI Overviews act like a superfast librarian that has read everything on the web. It provides users with a perfectly organised summary and links to dig deeper.

How to adapt: Answer your customers’ questions before they even ask. Create detailed, helpful content on your website and fully update your Google Business Profile. List your opening hours, delivery areas, and unique services clearly. This ensures the technology easily finds your details and recommends your business when a customer asks a highly specific question.

3. Intent Matters More Than Exact Words

Predicting every single word a customer might use to find your product is a huge task for any business owner. Thankfully, modern search technology focuses on the underlying need behind a search.

If someone searches for “how to bring small dogs on flights,” AI understands that the person likely needs to buy an airline-approved pet carrier. The technology looks at the true intent of the shopper.

How to adapt: You no longer need to obsess over guessing exact keywords. By using AI-powered campaigns, you allow the technology to understand your products and match them to the customer’s true needs. Your business will show up for highly relevant searches, bringing you customers who are actively looking for solutions you provide.

4. Smart Assistants Handle the Heavy Lifting

Running a business in Nigeria requires incredible hustle. Managing digital marketing on top of daily operations takes significant time and energy. The next frontier in digital advertising introduces agentic capabilities, which hold a simple promise of delivering better results for your business with much less effort.

The technology now acts as your personalised assistant.

How to adapt: You can simplify your marketing by using the Power Pack of AI-driven campaigns, including Performance Max. You simply provide your business goals, your budget, and your creative assets like photos and videos. The AI automatically finds new, high-value customers across Google Search, YouTube, and the web. It adapts your ads in real time to match exactly what the shopper is looking for, allowing you to focus on running your business.

The language of curiosity is constantly expanding. Nigerians are discovering brands in entirely new ways using cameras, voice notes, and highly specific questions. By understanding these behaviours and embracing helpful AI tools, you can let the technology connect eager customers directly to your digital doorstep.

Olumide Balogun is a Director at Google West Africa

Continue Reading

Trending