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The Impact of Brexit on South Africa and Africa

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By Morne van der Merwe

Countries in Africa are preparing for the reality that a hard Brexit could lead to increased risk aversion and reduced investor appetite for trade in the region. Akinwumi Adesina, president of the African Development Bank (AfDB), said recently that AfDB might revise its economic growth projections for Africa if global trade conditions worsened. The growth projections are currently 4% for 2019 and 4.1% in 2020. However, current world trade frictions are also providing many opportunities for the continent, as well as a chance for Africa to showcase its new African Continental Free Trade Agreement (AfCFTA), which now covers the world’s largest free trade area.

South Africa is a large recipient of British foreign direct investment (FDI) in Africa. In 2018, investors from the UK completed M&A transactions worth US$ 5.9 billion in South Africa. Further, the UK was the top acquirer country for mergers and acquisitions in Africa in the first half of 2019, with 30 M&A deals completed by UK based companies in Africa (according to analysis by Baker McKenzie of M&A data released by Refinitiv). Nine of these 30 African M&A deals by UK investors were in South Africa. South African outbound investment is also primarily focused on the UK. The ease of doing business with the UK and South Africa is brought about by various factors, including, similar time zones, language, historical ties and familiarity. However, due to its close investment and financial ties to the UK, South Africa could be one of most exposed country in sub-Saharan Africa in terms of the impact of a hard Brexit on the continent.

Volatility in financial markets and increased investor risk aversion are considered to be the main challenges brought about by a hard Brexit, not just for South Africa but sub-Saharan Africa as a whole. Brexit is expected to result in losses to trade, tourism and aid across Africa. The uncertainty associated with the continuously changing nature of Brexit has also affected investment in the region. Reductions in export demand and disruption to supply chains between Africa and the UK could be real challenges after Brexit. However, Brexit also offers new export opportunities as partnerships and agreements are formed across the continent.

There is hope that Brexit could impact positively on investment between the UK and Africa, in that it has resulted in UK trade outreach initiatives to numerous historic trade partners on the continent. The UK has been working with Africa countries to replace existing EU trading deals with new UK trade agreements, and the co-operation between the UK and continent has extended beyond trade to include collaboration in research, innovation and technology.

In 2018, the-then Prime Minister Theresa May announced on her visit to South Africa that the UK would invest an additional GBP 4.5 billion in African economies. May also said the UK would carry over the European Union’s Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA) with the Southern African Customs Union (SACU), comprising Botswana, Swaziland, Lesotho, Namibia and South Africa, as well as Mozambique, once the EU’s deal stopped applying to the UK. In September 2019, the South African Minister of Trade and Industry, Ebrahim Patel, said that SACU and Mozambique had agreed in principle to a new EPA with the UK, and that the parliamentary processes to bring the agreement into effect were in progress. The new agreement will allow the countries to continue to trade on the preferential terms set out in the current EPA. In January 2019, the UK’s Department for International Trade (DIT) confirmed they had signed agreements with Eastern and Southern African (ESA) countries, namely Madagascar, Mauritius, Seychelles and Zimbabwe. Engagement is still ongoing between the UK and the African countries of Tunisia, Morocco, Ghana, Kenya, Egypt, Côte d’Ivoire, Cameroon and Algeria.

According to the DIT, if the UK leaves the EU without any of these agreements in place, trade with these countries will take place under World Trade Organization rules. On balance, this is expected to result in higher import/export tariffs for all parties, and agreements that are more limited in scope than at present.

The South African president has also been encouraging trade relations and garnering support at the recent G7 Summit in France, not just for South Africa, but also for Africa as whole, in terms of South Africa’s forthcoming role as chair of the African Union for 2020. As such, President Cyril Ramaphosa has been vocal about the opportunities for trade across Africa that AfCFTA will bring.

And as parts of the world appear to fragment or turn inwards, AfCFTA provides a new opportunity for African nations to work together and speak with one voice. The recent launch of the operational phase of the agreement is considered to be a positive step, not just for the African continent, but for world trade in general.  AfCFTA is the first continent-wide African trade agreement, with the potential to facilitate and harmonise trade and infrastructure development across Africa.  It includes protocols, rules and procedures on trade, simplified customs procedures as well as dispute resolution mechanisms – all aimed at creating a single legal framework for the continent, and making it easier to trade and invest across borders. AfCFTA covers a market of more than 1.3 billion people, with a combined GDP of more than US$ 3.4 trillion.

So, where there are tendencies in some parts of the world to build barriers to trade, the development in Africa and the strong support for AfCFTA globally is a very positive indication that collaboration still counts and that there is still a strong belief in free trade to the benefit of many. Brexit may therefore provide a unique opportunity for African nations to work together, both to negotiate more advantageous trade deals post Brexit, but at the same time, to show the world that free trade between cooperating countries can lead can great things.

Morne van der Merwe is the Managing Partner and Head of the Corporate/M&A Practice at  Baker McKenzie Johannesburg

Dipo Olowookere is a journalist based in Nigeria that has passion for reporting business news stories. At his leisure time, he watches football and supports 3SC of Ibadan. Mr Olowookere can be reached via [email protected]

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The Future of Payments: Key Trends to Watch in 2025

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Luke Kyohere

By Luke Kyohere

The global payments landscape is undergoing a rapid transformation. New technologies coupled with the rising demand for seamless, secure, and efficient transactions has spurred on an exciting new era of innovation and growth. With 2025 fast approaching, here are important trends that will shape the future of payments:

1. The rise of real-time payments

Until recently, real-time payments have been used in Africa for cross-border mobile money payments, but less so for traditional payments. We are seeing companies like Mastercard investing in this area, as well as central banks in Africa putting focus on this. 

2. Cashless payments will increase

In 2025, we will see the continued acceleration of cashless payments across Africa. B2B payments in particular will also increase. Digital payments began between individuals but are now becoming commonplace for larger corporate transactions. 

3. Digital currency will hit mainstream

In the cryptocurrency space, we will see an increase in the use of stablecoins like United States Digital Currency (USDC) and Tether (USDT) which are linked to US dollars. These will come to replace traditional cryptocurrencies as their price point is more stable. This year, many countries will begin preparing for Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs), government-backed digital currencies which use blockchain. 

The increased uptake of digital currencies reflects the maturity of distributed ledger technology and improved API availability. 

4. Increased government oversight

As adoption of digital currencies will increase, governments will also put more focus into monitoring these flows. In particular, this will centre on companies and banks rather than individuals. The goal of this will be to control and occasionally curb runaway foreign exchange (FX) rates.

5. Business leaders buy into AI technology

In 2025, we will see many business leaders buying into AI through respected providers relying on well-researched platforms and huge data sets. Most companies don’t have the budget to invest in their own research and development in AI, so many are now opting to ‘buy’ into the technology rather than ‘build’ it themselves. Moreover, many businesses are concerned about the risks associated with data ownership and accuracy so buying software is another way to avoid this risk. 

6. Continued AI Adoption in Payments

In payments, the proliferation of AI will continue to improve user experience and increase security.  To detect fraud, AI is used to track patterns and payment flows in real-time. If unusual activity is detected, the technology can be used to flag or even block payments which may be fraudulent. 

When it comes to user experience, we will also see AI being used to improve the interface design of payment platforms. The technology will also increasingly be used for translation for international payment platforms.

7. Rise of Super Apps

To get more from their platforms, mobile network operators are building comprehensive service platforms, integrating multiple payment experiences into a single app. This reflects the shift of many users moving from text-based services to mobile apps. Rather than offering a single service, super apps are packing many other services into a single app. For example, apps which may have previously been used primarily for lending, now have options for saving and paying bills. 

8. Business strategy shift

Recent major technological changes will force business leaders to focus on much shorter prediction and reaction cycles. Because the rate of change has been unprecedented in the past year, this will force decision-makers to adapt quickly, be decisive and nimble. 

As the payments space evolves,  businesses, banks, and governments must continually embrace innovation, collaboration, and prioritise customer needs. These efforts build a more inclusive, secure, and efficient payment system that supports local to global economic growth – enabling true financial inclusion across borders.

Luke Kyohere is the Group Chief Product and Innovation Officer at Onafriq

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Ghana’s Democratic Triumph: A Call to Action for Nigeria’s 2027 Elections

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In a heartfelt statement released today, the Conference of Nigeria Political Parties (CNPP) has extended its warmest congratulations to Ghana’s President-Elect, emphasizing the importance of learning from Ghana’s recent electoral success as Nigeria gears up for its 2027 general elections.

In a statement signed by its Deputy National Publicity Secretary, Comrade James Ezema, the CNPP highlighted the need for Nigeria to reclaim its status as a leader in democratic governance in Africa.

“The recent victory of Ghana’s President-Elect is a testament to the maturity and resilience of Ghana’s democracy,” the CNPP stated. “As we celebrate this achievement, we must reflect on the lessons that Nigeria can learn from our West African neighbour.”

The CNPP’s message underscored the significance of free, fair, and credible elections, a standard that Ghana has set and one that Nigeria has previously achieved under former President Goodluck Jonathan in 2015. “It is high time for Nigeria to reclaim its position as a beacon of democracy in Africa,” the CNPP asserted, calling for a renewed commitment to the electoral process.

Central to CNPP’s message is the insistence that “the will of the people must be supreme in Nigeria’s electoral processes.” The umbrella body of all registered political parties and political associations in Nigeria CNPP emphasized the necessity of an electoral system that genuinely reflects the wishes of the Nigerian populace. “We must strive to create an environment where elections are free from manipulation, violence, and intimidation,” the CNPP urged, calling on the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) to take decisive action to ensure the integrity of the electoral process.

The CNPP also expressed concern over premature declarations regarding the 2027 elections, stating, “It is disheartening to note that some individuals are already announcing that there is no vacancy in Aso Rock in 2027. This kind of statement not only undermines the democratic principles that our nation holds dear but also distracts from the pressing need for the current administration to earn the trust of the electorate.”

The CNPP viewed the upcoming elections as a pivotal moment for Nigeria. “The 2027 general elections present a unique opportunity for Nigeria to reclaim its position as a leader in democratic governance in Africa,” it remarked. The body called on all stakeholders — including the executive, legislature, judiciary, the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), and civil society organisations — to collaborate in ensuring that elections are transparent, credible, and reflective of the will of the Nigerian people.

As the most populous African country prepares for the 2027 elections, the CNPP urged all Nigerians to remain vigilant and committed to democratic principles. “We must work together to ensure that our elections are free from violence, intimidation, and manipulation,” the statement stated, reaffirming the CNPP’s commitment to promoting a peaceful and credible electoral process.

In conclusion, the CNPP congratulated the President-Elect of Ghana and the Ghanaian people on their remarkable achievements.

“We look forward to learning from their experience and working together to strengthen democracy in our region,” the CNPP concluded.

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The Need to Promote Equality, Equity and Fairness in Nigeria’s Proposed Tax Reforms

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By Kenechukwu Aguolu

The proposed tax reform, involving four tax bills introduced by the Federal Government, has received significant criticism. Notably, it was rejected by the Governors’ Forum but was still forwarded to the National Assembly. Unlike the various bold economic decisions made by this government, concessions will likely need to be made on these tax reforms, which involve legislative amendments and therefore cannot be imposed by the executive. This article highlights the purposes of taxation, the qualities of a good tax system, and some of the implications of the proposed tax reforms.

One of the major purposes of taxation is to generate revenue for the government to finance its activities. A good tax system should raise sufficient revenue for the government to fund its operations, and support economic and infrastructural development. For any country to achieve meaningful progress, its tax-to-GDP ratio should be at least 15%. Currently, Nigeria’s tax-to-GDP ratio is less than 11%. The proposed tax reforms aim to increase this ratio to 18% within the next three years.

A good tax system should also promote income redistribution and equality by implementing progressive tax policies. In line with this, the proposed tax reforms favour low-income earners. For example, individuals earning less than one million naira annually are exempted from personal income tax. Additionally, essential goods and services such as food, accommodation, and transportation, which constitute a significant portion of household consumption for low- and middle-income groups, are to be exempted from VAT.

In addition to equality, a good tax system should ensure equity and fairness, a key area of contention surrounding the proposed reforms. If implemented, the amendments to the Value Added Tax could lead to a significant reduction in the federal allocation for some states; impairing their ability to finance government operations and development projects. The VAT amendments should be holistically revisited to promote fairness and national unity.

The establishment of a single agency to collect government taxes, the Nigeria Revenue Service, could reduce loopholes that have previously resulted in revenue losses, provided proper controls are put in place. It is logically easier to monitor revenue collection by one agency than by multiple agencies. However, this is not a magical solution. With automation, revenue collection can be seamless whether it is managed by one agency or several, as long as monitoring and accountability measures are implemented effectively.

The proposed tax reforms by the Federal Government are well-intentioned. However, all concerns raised by Nigerians should be looked into, and concessions should be made where necessary. Policies are more effective when they are adapted to suit the unique characteristics of a nation, rather than adopted wholesale. A good tax system should aim to raise sufficient revenue, ensure equitable income distribution, and promote equality, equity, and fairness.

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