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Where Will the Next $1bn of Growth Investment in Nigeria Go?

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Victor Basta Where will the next $1bn

By Victor Basta

Nigeria’s success is Africa’s success. It’s the continent’s largest economy, home to 3 of Africa’s 5 ‘unicorns’ (start-ups valued at over $1bn) and has the continent’s largest number of tech-driven companies.

More recently, it has been nearly un-investable. $2.4bn of Nigerian start-up funding between January 2021 and the mid-last year has dried up; only two large rounds have happened since mid-2022 (TeamApt raising $50m and Yellow Card raising $40m). Economic uncertainty, rampant inflation, concerns about Nigeria’s managed exchange rate, and, more recently, political uncertainty have combined to force international growth capital to the sidelines, waiting for clarity on how Nigeria would provide a stable investment climate into which to invest significant capital.

A lot is at stake for Africa as a whole

For the continent’s $5bn of start-up funding to multiply, its crucial Nigeria attracts the biggest share of that capital. There are dozens of high-quality Nigerian tech-enabled companies now reaching the growth stage, where $30-100m of investment into each will make the difference between them scaling to continental leadership and those companies remaining local/regional players.

More broadly, for Africa to attract India’s $21bn of annual growth capital, many of these Nigerian growth companies will need to multiply in size, and many currently have less than 12-18 months of cash, making delays incredibly expensive for the companies and their current investors.

In our view, many macro factors in Nigeria will begin to moderate as 2023 wears on. While the country’s problems cannot be fixed overnight, it only takes an improvement in direction and steps that show clear intent for Nigeria to become investable again.

Meanwhile, the lack of widespread violence around the recent elections is a first signal that the country has a stable route forward. So, we can already begin to look forward to the next $1bn of capital fuelling the next stage of expansion for the country’s growth stage tech businesses.

Where will the next $1bn go?

Up to now, the majority has been invested in fintech. However, we see the financial ‘rails’ as nowhere near being fully built out, and there remains significant untapped opportunity across the country. Also, fintech sectors such as SME financing, social commerce financing and delivery and aggregation and financing of smallholder farmer output – all fintech sectors where money ‘touches’ the real economy – remain largely untapped.

Mobile money is yet to be rolled out, with key telcos such as MTN now positioning themselves to be serious competitors to incumbent banks. Finally, services that ride on core financial rails, such as insurance and higher-yielding savings, are barely deployed at any scale in the country. For a $500bn economy, there remains a huge opportunity in core fintech.

In addition to leaders such as Flutterwave, Paystack and Interswitch, we are seeing emerging growth companies such as Migo, Carbon, Nomba, and PiggyVest begin to scale to levels which naturally attract international investors who are not ‘required’ to invest in Africa but rather are looking for a minimum scale irrespective of geography.

Beyond fintech, we see key mobility sectors as large and growing, recipients of where the next $1bn will be deployed. Nigeria has a poor infrastructure, virtually no rail transport, and deliveries around the country often take longer than shipping goods thousands of miles abroad.

Companies like Max.ng are making huge strides in enabling new vehicles to be deployed in Nigeria and will also lead the way in eventual electric vehicle deployment. In addition, GIG, through its market-leading logistics and mobility arms, is demonstrating best practice in deploying technology to ensure social commerce deliveries and inter-city transport can occur far more efficiently, and far more profitably than traditional operators.

In long-haul transport, Kobo360 has graduated from a start-up to the largest technology-driven long-haul logistics company in the region. Finally, Autochek, founded by the team that built Cars45, has been expanding its vehicle marketplace and financing offerings across multiple markets, making the resale of vehicles in Nigeria tech-enabled for the first time.

Nigeria’s largest sector, largely untouched by technology to date, remains agriculture. We see prominent tech-enabled growth companies such as ThriveAgric and Releaf now achieve the scale necessary to attract supportive international capital. For example, Thrive, mainly financed through debt, has already built a loyal base of nearly half a million smallholder farmers who receive higher prices, and better services, than they could ever achieve selling their harvests to middlemen in the traditional way.

Another sector with huge potential is renewable energy, specifically solar. Already, Daystar has been acquired by Shell, and StarSight has announced a major expansion combining with South Africa-based SolarAfrica. There remain a host of players competing in both the residential market and the commercial market. Many of these players, including M-KOPA and d.Light, have also expanded to mobile phones and will expand further to solar appliances as they fill out their offerings. With the oil price seemingly set to remain high, the economic rationale for accelerating solar deployments in Nigeria is more compelling now than ever before.

Finally, we see major opportunities in building out the basic infrastructure required for a true Internet economy. In terms of data centres, Kasi aspires to build one of Africa’s most modern data centre operations in Lagos. Actis-backed Rack Centre already operates Nigeria’s second-largest data centre operation and aims to multiply revenues over the coming 2-3 years.

What do we expect to happen going forward?

Once the election uncertainty is behind us and the new administration takes office in the coming weeks, we expect Nigeria’s investability to improve steadily. By the second half of 2023, stronger growth companies with trimmed losses will begin to attract international capital.

As we swing into 2024, we expect international interest to become more broad-based and to steer increasingly towards non-fintech opportunities. We believe many of these non-financial growth companies will offer embedded finance in one way or another, even if they operate in logistics, mobility, education or health care.

Overall, we expect the second half of 2023 to already match Nigeria’s best six months in terms of attracting international capital and 2024 to potentially see a record inflow of funds, attracted by the more stable environment and the sheer quality of local growth companies still facing wide open market opportunities.

Victor Basta is the CEO of DAI Magister

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The Hidden Workforce of the 2026 Access Bank Lagos City Marathon

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Lagos City Marathon Hidden Workforce

When the final runner crossed the finish line at the 11th edition of the Access Bank Lagos City Marathon (ABLCM), the applause began to fade. But for hundreds of workers across Lagos, the real work was just beginning.

Major highways had been closed to facilitate the event. Tens of thousands of runners moved through the city in a coordinated surge of athletic endurance. Thousands of bottles of water and energy drinks were distributed, alongside sachets containing essential medical supplies and medication. The race route itself was meticulously prepared, lined with banners, barricades, medical tents and precision timing systems that ensured safety, organisation and accurate performance tracking from start to finish.

What followed was the part that a few cameras lingered on, yet it remains one of the clearest indicators of institutional progress.

Within minutes of the race conclusion, coordinated sanitation teams fanned out across the marathon corridor. Their work went beyond sweeping. Waste was systematically sorted. Plastic bottles were separated from general refuse. Sachets were gathered in bulk. Collection trucks moved along predefined routes, ensuring rapid evacuation of waste. Temporary race infrastructure was dismantled with quiet precision.

In a megacity like Lagos, speed is a necessity. Urban momentum cannot pause for long. The ability to restore order quickly after an event of this magnitude reflects operational discipline across interconnected systems, municipal authorities, environmental agencies, private waste management partners and event coordinators.

Globally, large-scale sporting events are no longer evaluated solely by participation numbers or prize purses. Sustainability has emerged as a defining metric. Environmental responsiveness is now a core measure of credibility. Cities seeking tourism growth, foreign investment and international partnerships must demonstrate that scale does not compromise responsibility. The 2026 marathon provided a compelling case study in this evolution.

The clean-up operation itself generated meaningful economic activity. Temporary employment opportunities emerged for sanitation workers and logistics personnel. Recycling partners engaged in material recovery, reinforcing circular economy value chains. What was once viewed as routine waste disposal has evolved into a structured ecosystem of environmental services, a sector of increasing importance in modern urban economies.

This level of sustainability was the result of deliberate planning. Effective post-event recovery requires route mapping, waste volume projections, coordination between sponsors such as Access Bank Plc and municipal bodies, contingency planning for congestion points and clear communication protocols.

Each edition of the marathon has built on lessons from the last. International participation has expanded. Accreditation standards have strengthened. Media visibility has grown. Most importantly, environmental management has become embedded in the marathon’s operational framework rather than treated as an afterthought.

Progress rarely arrives in dramatic leaps, it advances through incremental improvements, refined systems and institutional learning. Just as elite runners close performance gaps through disciplined training, cities strengthen their global standing through consistent operational excellence.

The 2026 marathon, therefore, tells a story that extends far beyond athletic achievement. It is a story of coordination, sustainability as strategy rather than slogan, and the often unseen workforce, sanitation workers, planners, volunteers, security officials and environmental partners, whose discipline sustains the spectacle.

Because in the end, global cities are judged by how well they host and how responsibly they restore. On the marathon day in Lagos, it was the runners who demonstrated endurance and the systems, and the people behind them, who ensured that when the cheering stopped, the city kept moving.

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N328.5bn Billing: How Political Patronage Built Lagos’ Agbero Shadow Tax Empire

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Agbero Shadow Tax Empire

By Blaise Udunze

Lagos prides itself as Africa’s commercial nerve centre. It markets innovation, fintech unicorns, rail lines, blue-water ferries, and billion-dollar real estate. Though with the glittering skyline and megacity ambition lies a parallel state, a shadow taxation regime run not from Alausa, but from motor parks, bus stops, and highway shoulders. They are called “agberos.” And for decades, they have functioned as Lagos’ unofficial tax masters.

What began as loosely organised transport unionism mutated into a pervasive and often violent system of extortion. Today, tens of thousands of commercial buses, over 75,000 danfos according to estimates by the Lagos Metropolitan Area Transport Authority, ply Lagos roads daily. Each bus is a moving ATM. Each stop is a tollgate. Each route is a revenue corridor.

Looking at the daily estimate from their operations, at N7,000 to N12,000 per bus per day, conservative calculations show that between N525 million and N900 million is extracted daily from drivers. Annually, that balloons toward N192 billion to N328.5 billion or more, money collected in cash, unreceipted, unaudited, unaccounted for. This illicit taxation on an industrial scale did not emerge in a vacuum.

The reality today is that to understand the scale of the problem, one must confront its political history. It was during the administration of Bola Ahmed Tinubu as Lagos State governor from 1999 to 2007, who is now the President, that the entrenchment of transport union dominance and motor park patronage deepened.

Under his political machine, transport unions became not just labour associations but mobilisation structures, formidable grassroots networks capable of crowd control, voter turnout engineering, and territorial enforcement. In exchange for political loyalty, street influence translated into operational latitude.

Motor parks became power bases. “Area boys” became enforcers. Union leadership became politically connected. What should have been regulated associations morphed into revenue-generating franchises with muscle.

The system outlived his tenure. It institutionalised itself. It professionalised. It is embedded in Lagos’ political economy.

And today, it thrives in broad daylight. Endeavour to visit Ajah under bridge, Ikeja under bridge, or Mile-2 along Ojo at 6:00 a.m. Watch drivers clutching crumpled naira notes. Observe men in green trousers and caps marked NURTW weaving between buses, collecting what drivers call òwò àrò, or evening as òwò iròlè money taken from passengers.

A korope driver shouts, “Berger straight!” His bus fills. The engines rumble. But before he moves, he must pay. If he refuses? The side mirror may disappear. The windscreen may crack. The conductor may be assaulted. The vehicle may be blocked with planks, and if they resist, the conductor or driver may be beaten. Movement becomes impossible. It is not optional.

This is common across Lagos, especially amongst drivers in Oshodi, Obalende, Ojodu Berger, Mile 2, Iyana Iba, and Badagry, and describes a three-layered structure ranging from street collectors, area coordinators, and union executives at each location. Daily targets flow upward. Commissions remain below.

One conductor disclosed he budgets at N8,500 daily for louts alone, excluding fuel, delivery to vehicle owners, and official tickets. Another driver says he parts with nearly N15,000 in total daily levies across routes.

Of N40,000 collected on trips, barely N22,000 survives before fuel. Sometimes, drivers go home with N3,500. Working like elephants. Eating like ants. The impact extends far beyond drivers.

Every naira extorted is transferred to commuters. An N700 fare becomes N1,500. A N400 corridor becomes N1,200 in traffic, and this is maintained even after fuel prices fall; fares rarely decline. The hidden levy remains.

Retail traders reduce stock purchases because transport eats profits. Civil servants watch salaries stagnate while commuting costs climb. Market women complain that surviving Lagos costs more than living in it.

This is not just a transport disorder. It is inflation engineered by coercion. Economists call it financial leakage, money extracted from the productive economy that never enters the fiscal system. Billions circulate annually without appearing in government ledgers. No roads are built from it. No hospitals funded. No schools renovated.

It is taxation without development. Small and Medium Enterprises form nearly half of Nigeria’s GDP and employ the majority of its workforce. In Lagos, they are under assault from informal levies layered on top of official taxes. Goods delivered by bus carry hidden transport premiums. Commuting staff face higher daily costs. Inflation ripples through supply chains.

The strike by commercial drivers in 2022 exposed the depth of resentment. Under the Joint Drivers’ Welfare Association of Nigeria (JDWAN), drivers protested “unfettered and violent extortion.” Lagos stood still. Commuters trekked. Appointments were missed. Businesses stalled.

Drivers alleged that half of their daily income vanished into motor park collections.

Some who protested were attacked. Yet the collections continued.

Drivers insist daily collections at single corridors can exceed N5 million. Park chairmen allegedly control enormous cash flows. Uniformed collectors operate with visible confidence.

Meanwhile, the Lagos State Government denies sanctioning any roadside extortion. Officials describe the tax system as institutionalised and structured. They promise reforms through Bus Rapid Transit, rail expansion and corridor standardisation. Yet the shadow toll persists.

Contrast this with Enugu State, where Governor Peter Mbah introduced a Unified e-Ticket Scheme mandating digital payments directly into the state treasury. Paper tickets were banned. Cash collections outlawed. Revenue flows are traceable. Harassment criminalised.

Drivers in Lagos say openly that they should be given a single N5,000 daily ticket paid directly to the government, and end the chaos. Instead, they face multiple actors, agberos, task forces, and traffic officials, each demanding settlement.

The difference is in governance philosophy. One digitises and centralises revenue to eliminate leakages.

The other tolerates fragmentation that breeds shadow collectors. The uncomfortable truth is that the agbero structure is politically sensitive. Transport unions are not just labour bodies; they are political instruments. They mobilise during elections. They maintain territorial presence. They command street loyalty. In return, they are allegedly tolerated, protected, or absorbed into broader political structures as they turn into war instruments and a battle axe in the hands of the government of the day. The underlying reality is that the agbero who are the street-level power structures and the government authorities benefit from each other; the line between unofficial influence and official governance becomes unclear, making reform politically sensitive.

The issue is not merely about street disorder; it is about economic governance. Illicit taxation distorts pricing mechanisms, reduces productivity, discourages the formalisation of businesses, and weakens public trust. If citizens are compelled to pay both official taxes and unofficial levies, compliance morale declines. Why comply with statutory taxation when parallel systems operate unchecked?

Dismantling them is not merely administrative; it is political. Perhaps unbeknownst to the people, the cost of inaction is immense. Lagos aspires to be a 21st-century smart megacity under such an atmosphere. But investors notice informal roadblocks. Businesses factor in unpredictability. Commuters absorb unofficial taxes daily. Across Lagos roads, the script repeats “òwò mi dà,” meaning, give me my money.

Passengers plead with collectors to reduce levies so they can proceed. Conductors argue over dues before departure. Citizens feel hostage to a system they neither elected nor authorised.

Taxation, constitutionally, belongs to the state. It must be legislated, receipted, audited and deployed for the public good.

Agbero taxation is none of these. It is coercive. It is not transparent. It is extractive. Lagos has launched rail lines and BRT corridors. The Lagos Metropolitan Area Transport Authority continues transport reforms. Officials promise that bus reform initiatives will eliminate unregistered operators. But reform cannot be selective. You cannot modernise rail while medieval tolling persists on roads. You cannot preach digital governance while cash collectors flourish at bus stops. You cannot aspire to global city status while informal muscle dictates movement.

The solution is not episodic arrests. It is a structural overhaul: mandatory digital ticketing across all parks; a single harmonised levy payable electronically; an independent audit of union revenue; protection for drivers who resist illegal collections; and political decoupling of unions from patronage networks.

The agbero empire is not merely about bus fares. It is about how patronage systems, once empowered, metastasise into parallel authorities. What may have begun as strategic alliance-building two decades ago has matured into a shadow fiscal regime embedded in daily life.

The challenge is that Lagosians are left with no choice as they now pay twice, once to the government, once to the streets. And unlike official taxes, shadow taxes leave no developmental footprint. No bridge bears their name. No hospital wing testifies to their billions. No classroom is built from their collections. Only inflated fares. Broken windscreens. Frustrated commuters. And drivers who sweat under the sun, calculating how much will remain after everyone has taken their cut.

The agbero question is ultimately a governance question. Is Lagos governed by law, or by tolerated coercion? Is taxation a constitutional function, or a roadside negotiation? Is political convenience worth permanent economic distortion? What is absolutely known is that the structure has a political backing and what politics created, politics can dismantle.

Unless meaningful reform takes place, Lagos will continue to remain a megacity with a shadow treasury, where movement begins not with ignition, but with payment to men who answer to no ledger without any tangible returns. This is to say that every danfo that moves carries not just passengers, but the weight of a system that taxes without law, collects without accountability and punishes the very people who keep the city alive.

Blaise, a journalist and PR professional, writes from Lagos and can be reached via: bl***********@***il.com

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How to Nurture Your Faith During Ramadan

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Islam channel Faith During Ramadan

Many Muslims grow up learning how to balance life carefully. Faith, work, and responsibility all sit on the same scale, and during Ramadan, that balance becomes even more delicate. Days start earlier than usual, nights stretch longer, and energy is spent with intention.

Over time, this rhythm shapes more than schedules; it quietly shapes how Ramadan is experienced.

Between getting ready for work, navigating long days, preparing meals for iftar, observing prayers, and trying to rest, moments for reflection are often pushed to the side. When there’s finally time to pause, many people assume meaningful Islamic content requires complete silence, full attention, and emotional space, things that can feel scarce during the month.

They scroll past channels they believe may be too formal, or not suited to their everyday routine. They stick to what feels familiar, even if it doesn’t quite align with the spirit of the season and without realising it, they limit themselves.

What many don’t know is that content designed for moments like these already exists on GOtv. The Islam Channel offers programming that understands Ramadan as it is truly lived.

On the Islam Channel, viewers can find thoughtful discussions that explore faith in a way that feels relevant to modern life, educational programmes that break down Islamic teachings clearly and calmly, and inspiring shows that encourage reflection without feeling overwhelming. There are conversations that can play softly in the background while you’re cooking, reminders you can catch while getting dressed for work, and programmes that help you unwind gently after a long day of fasting.

What sets the channel apart is how it personalises Islamic themes, making them accessible not just during prayer time, but throughout the day. Its content is created to inform, reflect, and inspire, whether you’re actively watching or simply listening as life continues around you. And while it speaks directly to Muslim audiences, it also remains open and welcoming to non-Muslims interested in understanding Islamic values, culture, and everyday perspectives.

During Ramadan, television often becomes part of the atmosphere rather than the focus. And having access to content that aligns with the season can quietly enrich those in-between moments,  the ones that often matter most.

This Ramadan, the Islam Channel is available on GOtv Ch 111, ready to meet you wherever you are in your day.

And here’s the exciting part: with GOtv’s We Got You offer, you can enjoy your current package and get access to the next package at no extra cost. There’s never been a better time to hop on and get more shows, more suspense, and more entertainment, all for the same price!

To upgrade, subscribe, or reconnect, download the MyGOtv App or dial *288#. For watching on the go, download the GOtv Stream App and enjoy your favourites anytime, anywhere.

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