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Where Will the Next $1bn of Growth Investment in Nigeria Go?

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Victor Basta Where will the next $1bn

By Victor Basta

Nigeria’s success is Africa’s success. It’s the continent’s largest economy, home to 3 of Africa’s 5 ‘unicorns’ (start-ups valued at over $1bn) and has the continent’s largest number of tech-driven companies.

More recently, it has been nearly un-investable. $2.4bn of Nigerian start-up funding between January 2021 and the mid-last year has dried up; only two large rounds have happened since mid-2022 (TeamApt raising $50m and Yellow Card raising $40m). Economic uncertainty, rampant inflation, concerns about Nigeria’s managed exchange rate, and, more recently, political uncertainty have combined to force international growth capital to the sidelines, waiting for clarity on how Nigeria would provide a stable investment climate into which to invest significant capital.

A lot is at stake for Africa as a whole

For the continent’s $5bn of start-up funding to multiply, its crucial Nigeria attracts the biggest share of that capital. There are dozens of high-quality Nigerian tech-enabled companies now reaching the growth stage, where $30-100m of investment into each will make the difference between them scaling to continental leadership and those companies remaining local/regional players.

More broadly, for Africa to attract India’s $21bn of annual growth capital, many of these Nigerian growth companies will need to multiply in size, and many currently have less than 12-18 months of cash, making delays incredibly expensive for the companies and their current investors.

In our view, many macro factors in Nigeria will begin to moderate as 2023 wears on. While the country’s problems cannot be fixed overnight, it only takes an improvement in direction and steps that show clear intent for Nigeria to become investable again.

Meanwhile, the lack of widespread violence around the recent elections is a first signal that the country has a stable route forward. So, we can already begin to look forward to the next $1bn of capital fuelling the next stage of expansion for the country’s growth stage tech businesses.

Where will the next $1bn go?

Up to now, the majority has been invested in fintech. However, we see the financial ‘rails’ as nowhere near being fully built out, and there remains significant untapped opportunity across the country. Also, fintech sectors such as SME financing, social commerce financing and delivery and aggregation and financing of smallholder farmer output – all fintech sectors where money ‘touches’ the real economy – remain largely untapped.

Mobile money is yet to be rolled out, with key telcos such as MTN now positioning themselves to be serious competitors to incumbent banks. Finally, services that ride on core financial rails, such as insurance and higher-yielding savings, are barely deployed at any scale in the country. For a $500bn economy, there remains a huge opportunity in core fintech.

In addition to leaders such as Flutterwave, Paystack and Interswitch, we are seeing emerging growth companies such as Migo, Carbon, Nomba, and PiggyVest begin to scale to levels which naturally attract international investors who are not ‘required’ to invest in Africa but rather are looking for a minimum scale irrespective of geography.

Beyond fintech, we see key mobility sectors as large and growing, recipients of where the next $1bn will be deployed. Nigeria has a poor infrastructure, virtually no rail transport, and deliveries around the country often take longer than shipping goods thousands of miles abroad.

Companies like Max.ng are making huge strides in enabling new vehicles to be deployed in Nigeria and will also lead the way in eventual electric vehicle deployment. In addition, GIG, through its market-leading logistics and mobility arms, is demonstrating best practice in deploying technology to ensure social commerce deliveries and inter-city transport can occur far more efficiently, and far more profitably than traditional operators.

In long-haul transport, Kobo360 has graduated from a start-up to the largest technology-driven long-haul logistics company in the region. Finally, Autochek, founded by the team that built Cars45, has been expanding its vehicle marketplace and financing offerings across multiple markets, making the resale of vehicles in Nigeria tech-enabled for the first time.

Nigeria’s largest sector, largely untouched by technology to date, remains agriculture. We see prominent tech-enabled growth companies such as ThriveAgric and Releaf now achieve the scale necessary to attract supportive international capital. For example, Thrive, mainly financed through debt, has already built a loyal base of nearly half a million smallholder farmers who receive higher prices, and better services, than they could ever achieve selling their harvests to middlemen in the traditional way.

Another sector with huge potential is renewable energy, specifically solar. Already, Daystar has been acquired by Shell, and StarSight has announced a major expansion combining with South Africa-based SolarAfrica. There remain a host of players competing in both the residential market and the commercial market. Many of these players, including M-KOPA and d.Light, have also expanded to mobile phones and will expand further to solar appliances as they fill out their offerings. With the oil price seemingly set to remain high, the economic rationale for accelerating solar deployments in Nigeria is more compelling now than ever before.

Finally, we see major opportunities in building out the basic infrastructure required for a true Internet economy. In terms of data centres, Kasi aspires to build one of Africa’s most modern data centre operations in Lagos. Actis-backed Rack Centre already operates Nigeria’s second-largest data centre operation and aims to multiply revenues over the coming 2-3 years.

What do we expect to happen going forward?

Once the election uncertainty is behind us and the new administration takes office in the coming weeks, we expect Nigeria’s investability to improve steadily. By the second half of 2023, stronger growth companies with trimmed losses will begin to attract international capital.

As we swing into 2024, we expect international interest to become more broad-based and to steer increasingly towards non-fintech opportunities. We believe many of these non-financial growth companies will offer embedded finance in one way or another, even if they operate in logistics, mobility, education or health care.

Overall, we expect the second half of 2023 to already match Nigeria’s best six months in terms of attracting international capital and 2024 to potentially see a record inflow of funds, attracted by the more stable environment and the sheer quality of local growth companies still facing wide open market opportunities.

Victor Basta is the CEO of DAI Magister

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The Future of Payments: Key Trends to Watch in 2025

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Luke Kyohere

By Luke Kyohere

The global payments landscape is undergoing a rapid transformation. New technologies coupled with the rising demand for seamless, secure, and efficient transactions has spurred on an exciting new era of innovation and growth. With 2025 fast approaching, here are important trends that will shape the future of payments:

1. The rise of real-time payments

Until recently, real-time payments have been used in Africa for cross-border mobile money payments, but less so for traditional payments. We are seeing companies like Mastercard investing in this area, as well as central banks in Africa putting focus on this. 

2. Cashless payments will increase

In 2025, we will see the continued acceleration of cashless payments across Africa. B2B payments in particular will also increase. Digital payments began between individuals but are now becoming commonplace for larger corporate transactions. 

3. Digital currency will hit mainstream

In the cryptocurrency space, we will see an increase in the use of stablecoins like United States Digital Currency (USDC) and Tether (USDT) which are linked to US dollars. These will come to replace traditional cryptocurrencies as their price point is more stable. This year, many countries will begin preparing for Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs), government-backed digital currencies which use blockchain. 

The increased uptake of digital currencies reflects the maturity of distributed ledger technology and improved API availability. 

4. Increased government oversight

As adoption of digital currencies will increase, governments will also put more focus into monitoring these flows. In particular, this will centre on companies and banks rather than individuals. The goal of this will be to control and occasionally curb runaway foreign exchange (FX) rates.

5. Business leaders buy into AI technology

In 2025, we will see many business leaders buying into AI through respected providers relying on well-researched platforms and huge data sets. Most companies don’t have the budget to invest in their own research and development in AI, so many are now opting to ‘buy’ into the technology rather than ‘build’ it themselves. Moreover, many businesses are concerned about the risks associated with data ownership and accuracy so buying software is another way to avoid this risk. 

6. Continued AI Adoption in Payments

In payments, the proliferation of AI will continue to improve user experience and increase security.  To detect fraud, AI is used to track patterns and payment flows in real-time. If unusual activity is detected, the technology can be used to flag or even block payments which may be fraudulent. 

When it comes to user experience, we will also see AI being used to improve the interface design of payment platforms. The technology will also increasingly be used for translation for international payment platforms.

7. Rise of Super Apps

To get more from their platforms, mobile network operators are building comprehensive service platforms, integrating multiple payment experiences into a single app. This reflects the shift of many users moving from text-based services to mobile apps. Rather than offering a single service, super apps are packing many other services into a single app. For example, apps which may have previously been used primarily for lending, now have options for saving and paying bills. 

8. Business strategy shift

Recent major technological changes will force business leaders to focus on much shorter prediction and reaction cycles. Because the rate of change has been unprecedented in the past year, this will force decision-makers to adapt quickly, be decisive and nimble. 

As the payments space evolves,  businesses, banks, and governments must continually embrace innovation, collaboration, and prioritise customer needs. These efforts build a more inclusive, secure, and efficient payment system that supports local to global economic growth – enabling true financial inclusion across borders.

Luke Kyohere is the Group Chief Product and Innovation Officer at Onafriq

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Ghana’s Democratic Triumph: A Call to Action for Nigeria’s 2027 Elections

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In a heartfelt statement released today, the Conference of Nigeria Political Parties (CNPP) has extended its warmest congratulations to Ghana’s President-Elect, emphasizing the importance of learning from Ghana’s recent electoral success as Nigeria gears up for its 2027 general elections.

In a statement signed by its Deputy National Publicity Secretary, Comrade James Ezema, the CNPP highlighted the need for Nigeria to reclaim its status as a leader in democratic governance in Africa.

“The recent victory of Ghana’s President-Elect is a testament to the maturity and resilience of Ghana’s democracy,” the CNPP stated. “As we celebrate this achievement, we must reflect on the lessons that Nigeria can learn from our West African neighbour.”

The CNPP’s message underscored the significance of free, fair, and credible elections, a standard that Ghana has set and one that Nigeria has previously achieved under former President Goodluck Jonathan in 2015. “It is high time for Nigeria to reclaim its position as a beacon of democracy in Africa,” the CNPP asserted, calling for a renewed commitment to the electoral process.

Central to CNPP’s message is the insistence that “the will of the people must be supreme in Nigeria’s electoral processes.” The umbrella body of all registered political parties and political associations in Nigeria CNPP emphasized the necessity of an electoral system that genuinely reflects the wishes of the Nigerian populace. “We must strive to create an environment where elections are free from manipulation, violence, and intimidation,” the CNPP urged, calling on the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) to take decisive action to ensure the integrity of the electoral process.

The CNPP also expressed concern over premature declarations regarding the 2027 elections, stating, “It is disheartening to note that some individuals are already announcing that there is no vacancy in Aso Rock in 2027. This kind of statement not only undermines the democratic principles that our nation holds dear but also distracts from the pressing need for the current administration to earn the trust of the electorate.”

The CNPP viewed the upcoming elections as a pivotal moment for Nigeria. “The 2027 general elections present a unique opportunity for Nigeria to reclaim its position as a leader in democratic governance in Africa,” it remarked. The body called on all stakeholders — including the executive, legislature, judiciary, the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), and civil society organisations — to collaborate in ensuring that elections are transparent, credible, and reflective of the will of the Nigerian people.

As the most populous African country prepares for the 2027 elections, the CNPP urged all Nigerians to remain vigilant and committed to democratic principles. “We must work together to ensure that our elections are free from violence, intimidation, and manipulation,” the statement stated, reaffirming the CNPP’s commitment to promoting a peaceful and credible electoral process.

In conclusion, the CNPP congratulated the President-Elect of Ghana and the Ghanaian people on their remarkable achievements.

“We look forward to learning from their experience and working together to strengthen democracy in our region,” the CNPP concluded.

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The Need to Promote Equality, Equity and Fairness in Nigeria’s Proposed Tax Reforms

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By Kenechukwu Aguolu

The proposed tax reform, involving four tax bills introduced by the Federal Government, has received significant criticism. Notably, it was rejected by the Governors’ Forum but was still forwarded to the National Assembly. Unlike the various bold economic decisions made by this government, concessions will likely need to be made on these tax reforms, which involve legislative amendments and therefore cannot be imposed by the executive. This article highlights the purposes of taxation, the qualities of a good tax system, and some of the implications of the proposed tax reforms.

One of the major purposes of taxation is to generate revenue for the government to finance its activities. A good tax system should raise sufficient revenue for the government to fund its operations, and support economic and infrastructural development. For any country to achieve meaningful progress, its tax-to-GDP ratio should be at least 15%. Currently, Nigeria’s tax-to-GDP ratio is less than 11%. The proposed tax reforms aim to increase this ratio to 18% within the next three years.

A good tax system should also promote income redistribution and equality by implementing progressive tax policies. In line with this, the proposed tax reforms favour low-income earners. For example, individuals earning less than one million naira annually are exempted from personal income tax. Additionally, essential goods and services such as food, accommodation, and transportation, which constitute a significant portion of household consumption for low- and middle-income groups, are to be exempted from VAT.

In addition to equality, a good tax system should ensure equity and fairness, a key area of contention surrounding the proposed reforms. If implemented, the amendments to the Value Added Tax could lead to a significant reduction in the federal allocation for some states; impairing their ability to finance government operations and development projects. The VAT amendments should be holistically revisited to promote fairness and national unity.

The establishment of a single agency to collect government taxes, the Nigeria Revenue Service, could reduce loopholes that have previously resulted in revenue losses, provided proper controls are put in place. It is logically easier to monitor revenue collection by one agency than by multiple agencies. However, this is not a magical solution. With automation, revenue collection can be seamless whether it is managed by one agency or several, as long as monitoring and accountability measures are implemented effectively.

The proposed tax reforms by the Federal Government are well-intentioned. However, all concerns raised by Nigerians should be looked into, and concessions should be made where necessary. Policies are more effective when they are adapted to suit the unique characteristics of a nation, rather than adopted wholesale. A good tax system should aim to raise sufficient revenue, ensure equitable income distribution, and promote equality, equity, and fairness.

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