Feature/OPED
Why 2026 Must Be the Year Nigeria’s Economy Works for All
By Blaise Udunze
As the new economic year begins in Nigeria, statements and policies emanating from government officials’ corridors project cautious optimism. One of the official narratives that expresses renewal of hope and confidence is the projection from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) that the economy is expected to continue expanding, with GDP growth at 4.49 percent, and headline inflation is projected to moderate to 12.9 percent. Despite grappling with shrinking oil revenues, rising public debt, and widening fiscal deficits as a nation, it is further projected that the foreign reserves are anticipated to exceed $50 billion. Policymakers presented these figures as evidence that the economy is stabilising and consolidating, irrespective of the clear evidence of years of turbulence.
Yet the concern for experts is that beyond the polished macroeconomic indicators lies a widening disconnect between statistical recovery and lived reality. While increasingly warning that stability is necessary, the views across academia, civil society, labour groups, and the private sector, experts clearly stated that it is not synonymous with sustainable growth, nor does it automatically improve living standards for millions of Nigerians grappling with unemployment, rising prices, and fragile livelihoods.
This development signals the economic debate entering 2026, as evident in the previous years, the argument that the year must not become another chapter in which rhetoric outpaces results. To them, it must place productivity, inclusion, and welfare at the heart of reform as all this must be informed via a decisive shift toward holistic, people-centered economic renewal.
The Numbers and the Narrative
There is no denying that certain macroeconomic indicators have improved. Tighter monetary policy in 2025, foreign exchange market unification, and efforts to rein in deficit financing have contributed to relative stability in inflation dynamics and exchange rate volatility.
However, economists interviewed by major national dailies argue that many of these gains remain largely “on paper.” They clearly stated that growth figures have not translated into broad-based job creation, rising real incomes, or improved business conditions for small enterprises. It is regrettable that households whose spending is dominated by food, transport, and energy, whilst inflation. However, easing remains painfully high relative to income, and this disconnect underscores a deeper flaw in economic communication and design, showing that headline indicators often mask structural weaknesses. GDP growth does not automatically reflect productivity expansion, employment quality, or resilience. Foreign reserves alone do not guarantee the affordability of necessities. When policy emphasis centres on aggregates rather than outcomes, reform risks losing social legitimacy.
When Stability Isn’t Enough
The inflation debate illustrates this dilemma clearly, and projections suggest moderation in 2026, yet prices of essential goods remain high. Low-income households, especially those outside formal wage employment, bear a disproportionate burden. For them, “disinflation” offers little relief when purchasing power has already been eroded. In like manner, exchange rate unification, though economically rational, imposed short-term shocks on import-dependent businesses and consumers. The fact remains that without a simultaneous and aggressive push to strengthen domestic production, the nation’s currency reforms risk transferring adjustment costs to households rather than building long-term competitiveness. These debates reveal two competing visions of economic management:
– One that prioritises macroeconomic order and investor confidence
– Another that insists stability must be matched by visible improvements in welfare, productivity, and opportunity.
The fact is that a holistic renewal agenda must reconcile both.
Macroeconomic Stability as Foundation, Not Destination
To be clear, stability matters, and it must be treated as a foundation, not the finish line. One will conclude that this is what it is meant to be because economic planning becomes impossible without disciplined fiscal management, credible monetary policy, and sustainable debt dynamics. Experts caution against celebrating stabilisation while growth remains modest.
The International Monetary Fund projects Nigeria’s growth to slow toward three per cent, with further moderation in 2026 due largely to weaker global demand and declining oil prices. Crude oil’s fall below Nigeria’s budget benchmark reinforces the urgency of diversification. Moderate growth, without deep structural reform, cannot absorb Nigeria’s rapidly expanding labour force. This is because as a young, fast-growing population requires productivity-led growth, not cyclical rebounds tied to commodity prices.
Infrastructure as the Productivity Multiplier
Infrastructure remains one of Nigeria’s most binding constraints, commonly associated with the lingering erratic power supply, congested transport corridors, inefficient ports, and weak digital connectivity, which impose high costs on businesses and households alike.
Consistently, it is argued by experts that fragmented projects are insufficient by objectively looking at the trend of things; what is required is integrated infrastructure planning that links energy reform with transport logistics, industrial clusters, rural access roads, and digital platforms. Some of the key grey areas that the electricity reform must address are not just generation but transmission losses, distribution inefficiencies, and tariff credibility. Without much ado, transport investments should prioritise economic corridors and channels that connect farms to markets and factories to ports. Digital infrastructure, broadband access, data systems, and digital public services must be recognised as essential economic infrastructure, not optional upgrades.
Human Capital and the Missing Engine of Growth
No economy can sustainably outgrow the quality of its people. Yet education and healthcare often remain peripheral in reform discourse.
Today, we noticed that Nigeria’s education system struggles with skill mismatches, while healthcare costs push millions into poverty.
Economic growth, no matter how well-measured, will remain shallow, as experts have maintained in their arguments that this will remain a constant factor without human capital reform. In the same manner, education, which is a key instrument for building human capital, must be in alignment with labour-market needs, while reflecting technical skills, digital literacy, and adaptability, knowing quite well that vocational and technical are critical and should be elevated as engines of productivity, not treated as second-tier options. Human capital is not social expenditure; it is economic investment, so for this reason, healthcare investment, like others, must prioritise preventive care, insurance coverage, and workforce retention.
Private Sector and MSMEs, From Constraint to Catalyst
Small and medium-sized enterprises are already struggling to survive in Nigeria’s high-cost economy, despite being the nation’s largest employer of labour, as informed by high interest rates, limited credit access, regulatory uncertainty, and infrastructure bottlenecks.
Access to affordable finance, regulatory simplicity, predictable tax policy, and contract enforcement are critical since experts repeatedly stress that reform must shift from controlling enterprise to enabling it.
Without deliberate support for small businesses, growth remains concentrated, informal employment persists, and inequality deepens. For these reasons, MSMEs require not just credit, but stable operating environments.
Industrialisation, Local Production, and Value Addition
One of the strongest expert warnings ahead of 2026 concerns Nigeria’s continued reliance on imports and raw commodity exports. This structure leaves the economy exposed to external shocks and foreign exchange volatility. For this reason, we have continued to witness economists and industry leaders advocating aggressive support for local production, agro-processing, and manufacturing value chains. Strengthening domestic capacity reduces import dependence, stabilises foreign exchange demand, and creates jobs.
Industrial policy must practically focus on sectors where Nigeria has a comparative advantage, supported by infrastructure, skills, and finance. This is to say that import substitution without competitiveness risks inefficiency, and value addition with productivity creates resilience.
Fiscal Reform and Social Justice
Fiscal reform is very important, and experts have argued that to make sure that fiscal reform is done in a fair way, it must be equitable. The tax officials must ensure that extending the tax base, it does not translate into overburdening small businesses or low-income earners. Also, one would have noticed that the removal of fuel subsidies freed fiscal space, but without strong social safety nets, it also made life very tough for a lot of people because they did not have any help when they needed it. Critics argue that reform savings must be visibly social investments like education, healthcare, transport, and targeted welfare. Social protection is not charity; it is economic stabilisation, preventing reform shocks from eroding social cohesion.
Governance, Institutions, and Policy Credibility
Unique to the Nigerian system, we have witnessed economic reforms fail where institutions are weak. This is because trust and investment have been undermined due to Policy reversals, regulatory inconsistency, and the lack of transparent decision-making.
Beyond rhetoric to enforcement, experts emphasise the need for policy coherence, institutional professionalism, and transparent communication. Anti-corruption efforts must extend. Prolonged Judicial judgement, particularly in commercial dispute resolution, has adversely impeded the smooth running of society as it questions the credibility of the system. Good governance is not abstract morality, rather it is a growth multiplier.
Agriculture, Food Security, and Rural Stability
Food inflation remains a major driver of hardship and has been one of Nigeria’s most stubborn. Though trade liberalisation has occasionally eased prices, experts argue that without boosting domestic agricultural productivity, food security will remain fragile.
Mechanisation, storage infrastructure, rural roads, insurance, and access to finance are essential. Equally critical is addressing rural insecurity, which disrupts production and inflates food prices.
Agriculture links economic growth directly to poverty reduction and social stability.
Digital Economy and Innovation
Technology is no longer a sector; it is a layer across all sectors. One can argue that Nigeria’s fintech success demonstrates what is possible, but looking at it intently, a broader digital transformation requires investment in connectivity, data protection, and cybersecurity. Regulation must be enabling, must be able to change when necessary, and forward-looking to achieve a thriving digital economy that can generate jobs, improve service delivery, and connect local firms to global markets.
The Productivity Challenge in Decline
Across expert critiques, one theme recurs: stability without productivity is stagnation.
An economy can be stable yet unproductive, grow slowly, create little or no jobs, and remain vulnerable to shocks. Productivity growth transforms stability into prosperity. It requires investment in people, infrastructure, innovation, and institutions.
Without productivity, growth becomes cyclical, driven by oil prices, not by domestic capacity.
From Rhetoric to Resonance: Closing the Credibility Gap
As Nigeria enters 2026, it has to choose to either settle for modest stability and make progress or pursue bold, people-centred strategies that generate shared prosperity.
The signs of stabilisation are real. But so is the urgency for deeper reforms that trickles down to the daily lives of those at the lower rung. Growth must be measured not only in GDP figures, inflation rates, or reserves, but in the number of jobs that are being created, the people who are earning money, and the businesses that are still running, with hope restored. It is expected that a true economic renewal in 2026 will not be announced; it will be felt.
Blaise, a journalist and PR professional, writes from Lagos and can be reached via: bl***********@***il.com
By Vivian Imoh-Ita
Across African banking, the conversation is shifting from “inclusion as intent” to “inclusion as performance.” Margin pressure, recapitalisation conversations, digitisation, and tighter risk expectations are forcing a hard question: where will sustainable, low-volatility growth come from in the next cycle? One answer is hiding in plain sight: women-led enterprises, underfunded, underserved, and consistently productive.
In Nigeria’s informal economy, where cash flow is real but documentation is uneven, the institutions that win will be the ones that price risk with better signals, distribute at scale, and convert trust into long-term financial relationships. Too often, women’s economic participation is framed as a social commitment rather than a commercial imperative.
That framing is expensive: when we fail to design capital, products, and distribution around the realities of women in business, we don’t just exclude customers, we misprice opportunity and leave growth on the table. Women in Nigeria are not waiting to be “empowered” before they build.
They are already trading, employing, and sustaining households at scale. The real constraint is not capability; it is the fit between how finance is structured and how women-owned businesses actually operate: cash-flow patterns, collateral realities, and the need for speed, trust, and advisory alongside capital.
Three practical frictions show up repeatedly: Collateral versus cash-flow: many viable women-run businesses are cash-generative but asset-light, so collateral-heavy underwriting excludes the very segment banks say they want. Information gaps: when transactions happen outside formal rails, banks see “thin files.”
But thin files are not the same as high risk; they are a data problem that better design and alternative signals can solve. Time-to-cash matters: entrepreneurs often need small, fast working-capital decisions, not slow processes built for corporate cycles.
Speed is a risk tool when it is paired with the right controls. Nigeria has roughly 23 million women entrepreneurs in the micro-business segment, one of the highest rates of female entrepreneurship globally.
Women account for 41% of SME ownership, and SMEs contribute nearly half of the national GDP. Yet access to formal finance remains disproportionately low: women receive only about 10% of loans from financial service providers, and an estimated 98% of women entrepreneurs still lack access to formal credit.
An internal strategy analysis drawing on EFInA/Global Findex/SMEDAN data shows a structural gap: 41% of Nigerian women are financially excluded (vs 33% for men), and while 39% of women borrowed from multiple sources, only 4% accessed a bank loan.
Across Africa, the financing gap for women-led businesses is estimated at $42 billion. This is not a “nice-to-have” agenda. McKinsey Global Institute’s The Power of Parity estimates that advancing women’s equality could add up to $12 trillion to global GDP.
The IMF has estimated that equal participation by women could lift GDP by as much as 40% in some countries. For Nigeria, an analysis cited by the Council on Foreign Relations, drawing on McKinsey’s data, projects that closing the gender gap in economic participation could increase GDP by 23%.
For banks, the implication is straight-forward: women-led enterprises are not a niche; they are a mass-market growth opportunity. Unlocking it requires moving from “product availability” to “product usability”: cash-flow-based lending, simpler onboarding, distribution through digital and agent rails, and trust-by-design (clear pricing, consumer protection, and strong data privacy). Usage is what creates the data to lend responsibly at scale.
There is also a practical reason the returns are outsized: women tend to reinvest more of what they earn into their families and communities, often cited as up to 90%, driving a multiplier effect that shows up in education, health outcomes, and local employment.
For financial institutions, that multiplier is not just a story; it is a durable pathway to deposit growth, transaction volume, credit performance, and long-term customer value. I have seen this play out across Nigeria, in every state and market. The woman selling clothes in Balogun Market employs three other women and sends five children to school.
The general merchandise trader in Onitsha Market is the economic anchor of her extended family. Each of these women is a multiplier, and each of them started with someone, somewhere, giving her a loan, a skill, an opportunity, a chance. That is the “Give to Gain” principle made real. Giving is not a subtraction. It is, as this year’s IWD campaign puts it, intentional multiplication.
At Union Bank, we treat women’s financial inclusion as a core product strategy, not CSR, because the commercial logic is clear. When a woman builds financial capability, she doesn’t just open an account. She saves, transacts, borrows responsibly, expands her business footprint, and brings others with her.
We also understand that distribution is a strategy. Union Bank’s UnionDirect agency banking network operates over 58,000 agents across rural and underserved communities, extending access to deposits, withdrawals, and micro-lending where branches cannot cover the economics.
We have also disbursed over N50 billion in micro-lending to smallholder farmers, market women, and informal entrepreneurs, because inclusion only becomes real when it is usable, frequent, and local.
In a market where a large share of working women operates in the informal sector, bringing women into the formal financial system through savings, digital banking, micro-lending, and insurance is a material growth frontier. Multiple studies across emerging markets also show women often have lower default rates than men, reinforcing what many banks observe in practice: disciplined cash management and strong repayment culture when products are designed around real operating conditions.
That is why we created alpher, Union Bank’s women’s banking proposition launched in 2020 and aligned with SDG5 on Gender Equality. Alpher is designed for the Nigerian woman, whether she is an entrepreneur, a working professional, or managing household finances. For women in business, alpher combines tailored loans and savings plans with capacity-building, mentorship, and practical masterclasses, because capital without capability yields fragile outcomes. alpher is built around a simple promise: practical financial solutions, support systems, savings and investment options, discounted loans, personal and professional development, mentorship/coaching/networking, discounted healthcare plans, and lifestyle/business discounts.
Operationally, we segment customers into individuals (professionals and entrepreneurs), women-led organisations, and organisations that support women in their workforce and supply chains. Hence, the service is relevant, not generic.
Practically, that has meant designing access to credit with reduced collateral requirements, recognising that traditional collateral models were not built around women’s asset ownership patterns.
It has also meant investing deliberately in skills, entrepreneurship, bookkeeping, pricing, digital commerce, and personal finance, so that funding translates into resilience, not just activity.
One initiative I am particularly proud of is the alpher Fair. In this marketplace concept, we open our premises (and those of partners) to women entrepreneurs to sell directly to customers, employees, and partner networks.
It creates immediate market access, strengthens visibility, and proves a simple point: scaling women-owned businesses is often about building pipelines of customers, information, and trust, not just issuing loans. Beyond our own programmes, we partner to scale outcomes.
In May 2025, through alpher, Union Bank sponsored the Nigerian British Chamber of Commerce (NBCC) Women and Youth Entrepreneurship Development Centre (WYEDC) Cohort 2 Programme, which graduated 125 entrepreneurs who benefited from entrepreneurship training and business grants. At the graduation, we hosted a pitch segment that awarded funding to standout entrepreneurs. This is the point: capability building is not “soft.”
It is pipeline development for stronger businesses and better credit outcomes. Importantly, alpher sits within Union Bank’s broader retail and SME ecosystem, loan products, business advisory, digital payment infrastructure, and growth workshops, so customers can access funding, learn how to deploy it, connect to mentors and peers, and gain visibility for their businesses.
The objective is straightforward: build businesses that last. The next phase of banking growth in Nigeria will favour institutions that translate insight into design products that reflect customer reality, distribution that meets customers where they are, and risk models that recognise performance beyond legacy collateral. Backing women-led enterprise is not a campaign; it is a competitive advantage.
The forward-looking question is whether we will build the rails, capital, capability, digital trust, and market access fast enough to earn the growth already waiting in plain sight. If we are serious about inclusive growth, we should be equally serious about inclusive balance sheets and about building the underwriting, data, and distribution models that make inclusion commercially sustainable.
Vivian Imoh-Ita is Head, Retail & SME Business at Union Bank of Nigeria, with a focus on building retail and SME propositions that drive inclusion, growth, and long-term customer value
By Olumide Balogun
Picture this scenario. You are at a fun party in Lagos. Amidst the sea of colourful jackets and perfectly tailored pants, you spot a guest wearing a pair of striking sneakers that perfectly blend modern streetwear with traditional Aso-Oke fabric. You want to buy a pair immediately. The music is loud, and the guest is across the banquet hall. A few years ago, you would simply have to wonder who made them. Today, you pull out your smartphone, tap the camera icon in your search app, and snap a quick photo. Within seconds, the technology identifies the exact local designer, shows you product reviews, and provides a direct link to their online store.
As the great Chinua Achebe famously wrote, “The world is like a Mask dancing. If you want to see it well, you do not stand in one place.”
The modern Nigerian consumer has certainly moved. They are actively experiencing the world visually, turning their smartphone cameras into their primary shopping tool. Nigerians are highly optimistic about this technological shift. In fact, 80% of Nigerians are more excited about the possibilities of AI, versus just 20% who are more concerned. This enthusiasm translates directly to commerce and innovation. Currently, 80% of Nigerians are using AI to explore a new business or career change, nearly double the global average of 42%. For Nigerian marketers, understanding this shift is the exact key to unlocking unprecedented business growth.
We are witnessing a massive transformation in how people consume media and discover products. YouTube watch time in Nigeria recently jumped by over 55% year over year. Our incredibly young, digital native population is actively redefining the media landscape by immersing themselves in video and visual content. Consequently, they are moving rapidly toward visual and video-led discovery.
The Rise of Visual Search. The modern Nigerian shopper uses their camera to ask questions. Globally, Lens is used for over 20 billion visual searches every month. Features like Circle to Search and video understanding allow users to interact with their surroundings instantly.
A shopper can now circle a fashion item they spot in a social media video or use their camera to scan a product in real life to find out more. Gen Z consumers are leading this charge. They use visual search to effortlessly discover products they cannot easily describe with words. They see something they love, and they use their camera to find it.
Making the Real World Shoppable. This visual behaviour creates a powerful new reality for retail. Imagine a consumer walking through a busy mall and spotting a stylish backpack in a store window. They simply tap the Lens icon on their phone and snap a photo. Instantly, they see a highly helpful results page showing product reviews, price comparisons across different retailers, and direct links to buy.
Google is integrating Shopping Ads directly into these visual search results. Advertisers can now connect with highly motivated shoppers at the exact moment their interest is piqued. The opportunity for businesses is immense, considering 1 in every 4 visual search queries done using Google Lens has a commercial intent. Your product can appear right alongside the items people are photographing out in the real world, turning everyday inspiration into immediate sales.
Video as the New Storefront. This visual revolution extends directly into online video. With YouTube becoming the primary screen for many Nigerians, video serves as the new digital storefront. Consumers turn to YouTube to discover trends, learn new skills, and make confident purchase decisions based on trusted creator reviews.
Brands must capture customer interest while users are deeply engaged in this video content. Google’s Demand Gen campaigns make this process highly effective. These AI-driven campaigns take your best video and image assets and automatically serve them across YouTube and other visual platforms. The results speak for themselves. Advertisers are more likely to say Google Search and YouTube drive business growth more than any other paid advertising platforms.
Step Into the Frame The language of commerce is increasingly visual. Nigerian consumers are already using their cameras and screens to navigate their shopping journeys. Marketers who embrace this visual commerce revolution will build stronger, more profitable connections with their audiences.
By optimising your visual product assets, leveraging AI tools like Demand Gen, and preparing for ads in visual search, you position your brand right at the heart of the modern shopping experience. The camera is the most powerful tool in your customer’s hand today. It is time for your business to step into the frame.
Olumide Balogun is the Director for Google West Africa
By Chinwe Iwobi
In Nigeria, women are the backbone of our economy. Data from the National Bureau of Statistics shows that women own approximately 40% of small and medium-sized enterprises across the country (NBS Country Data Overview 2023). Yet despite their outsized contribution to GDP, women-led businesses continue to face systemic barriers to the capital and financial infrastructure needed to scale.
The cost of that gap is not abstract. When these entrepreneurs are held back, the ripple effect runs deep, from household stability to the education of the next generation. But the narrative is shifting. Nigerian women are proving, consistently, that they are not just resilient; they are sophisticated, high-earning innovators building businesses that deserve serious financial strategy.
Here are five foundational strategies every women-led business should be deploying to build lasting, generational wealth.
- Separate Business and Personal Finances Without Exception
Mixing personal funds with business cash is one of the most common and most damaging financial habits I see among growing entrepreneurs. It obscures your true profit margins, makes tax planning nearly impossible and, critically, disqualifies you from accessing formal credit when you need it most.
The discipline of separation is not just administrative. It is the first signal you send to the financial system that your business is serious. Open a dedicated business account, maintain clean transaction records, and treat your business finances with the same rigour you would expect from any enterprise operating at scale. Clarity on your numbers is the foundation on which every other strategy here depends.
- Build Both an Emergency Fund and an Opportunity Fund
Most financial advice stops at the emergency fund, which is three to six months of operating expenses set aside for lean periods. That is necessary, but insufficient. The entrepreneurs I have watched grow most aggressively also maintain what I call an opportunity fund: accessible liquidity specifically reserved to move fast when a prime supplier deal, an expansion location, or a bulk inventory discount appears.
In an unpredictable market like Nigeria’s, the businesses that scale are rarely the ones with the best products alone. They are the ones with the financial readiness to act decisively. Products like FairMoney’s FairSave are designed precisely for this, keeping your funds accessible while earning competitive daily interest so your idle cash is working even when you are not. Build both buffers, and build them before you think you need them.
- Invest Profits Back into Revenue-Generating Assets
Surplus cash sitting in a current account is a slow leak. Inflation erodes it, and opportunity costs compound quietly. The discipline here is to consistently channel profits back into assets that grow your revenue capacity, whether that is new equipment, improved technology, better inventory systems, or staff training.
For capital you do not need immediately, consider locking it into a fixed-term savings product that offers higher interest returns. The psychological benefit is as important as the financial one: ring-fencing that capital removes it from day-to-day spending temptation and ensures it is preserved and grown for a defined purpose. Discipline in capital allocation separates businesses that plateau from those that compound.
- Diversify Your Revenue Streams Intentionally
Single-stream businesses are inherently fragile. If your sole revenue source is disrupted by market shifts, a supply chain breakdown, or a change in consumer behaviour, your entire operation is exposed. Resilience is built by design, not by accident.
If you are in retail, consider adding a service-based arm. If you are service-led, explore whether digital products or training offerings could create passive income alongside your core work. Beyond product diversification, consider how you accept payments. Building a verified, diverse transaction history through formal payment channels also quietly strengthens your credit profile, an asset that pays dividends when you approach lenders for growth financing. FairMoney’s Business POS infrastructure, for instance, allows entrepreneurs to expand their payment reach while simultaneously building that financial track record.
- Invest Beyond the Business
This is the strategy most women entrepreneurs delay for too long, and it is the one I feel most strongly about. Relying entirely on your business for your net worth is a high-risk position, no matter how well that business is performing. Businesses face cycles; personal wealth should not.
As your business stabilises, begin systematically moving a portion of your profits into personal investment vehicles such as long-term savings accounts, money market funds, or other instruments that sit entirely outside the business cycle. Automate it if you can, so the decision is made once and executed consistently. The goal is to build a personal financial foundation that remains intact regardless of what your business goes through in any given quarter. True wealth is not what your business is worth on paper. It is what you own independently of it.
The Bigger Picture
For female entrepreneurs in Nigeria, wealth-building is not simply a personal ambition; it is an economic argument. When women-led businesses scale, communities stabilise, households invest in education, and local economies deepen. The strategies above are not complicated, but they require consistency and the right financial infrastructure to execute well.
The tools exist. The opportunity is real. What remains is the decision to treat your business, and your personal wealth, with the long-term seriousness both deserve.
Chinwe Iwobi is the Head of Wealth Management at FairMoney Microfinance Bank
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