Feature/OPED
Why Ghana May Not be Better Off Than Nigeria
By Kenechukwu Aguolu
Nigeria is undergoing a series of economic reforms designed to revitalize its economy for long-term stability and growth. These reforms have introduced shocks to the system, resulting in temporary financial hardships while, Nigerians remain hopeful, anticipating that these reforms will ultimately lead to improved economic conditions.
Analysts have scrutinized the current government’s performance over the past year using various indices such as GDP, GDP per capita, inflation, exchange rates, and external reserves. These metrics do not give a complete insight into the country’s socio-economic well-being.
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) measures the total value of goods and services produced within a country over a specified period. GDP per capita, which divides GDP by the population, offers an average economic output per person. However, GDP as an indicator is increasingly viewed as limited in its ability to reflect true economic wellness as it does not consider critical factors such as income distribution, unemployment, and economic sustainability.
Consequently, a higher GDP or GDP growth rate does not necessarily signify superior economic performance or wealth. In some cases, a high GDP growth rate may be driven by unsustainable practices or a disproportionate focus on expanding specific sectors, rather than fostering holistic and inclusive economic development.
A country’s external reserves are crucial for managing economic shocks and maintaining foreign exchange stability. Large external reserves act as a safety net, increasing foreign investor confidence and potentially attracting more foreign direct investment. However, concentrating solely on building foreign reserves can have drawbacks.
For instance, a country might prioritize reserves over investments in critical areas such as education, healthcare, and infrastructure, which are essential for long-term development. Balancing the accumulation of external reserves with necessary domestic investments is vital to ensure sustainable economic growth and overall national well-being.
The value of a country’s currency is influenced by various factors including the value of external reserves, interest rates, economic and political stability, balance of trade, and economic policy. Some countries allow their currency to float, determined by market forces, while others peg it. There is a common misconception that a stronger currency signifies a stronger economy.
Japan and China, despite having large and robust economies, do not have the world’s strongest currencies. High-export countries may prefer a weaker currency to make their goods more competitive internationally. Thus, currency value alone is not a definitive measure of economic wellness.
Inflation is the rise in prices for goods and services. While high inflation can erode purchasing power, moderate inflation can signal economic growth and increased consumer spending. However, uncontrolled inflation can lead to economic instability.
Nigeria’s current high inflation rates are concerning, but the government’s efforts to control inflation and increase the national minimum wage could help mitigate its negative impacts. Therefore, while inflation is an important metric, it must be understood within its broader economic context.
Fiscal deficit occurs when government expenditure surpasses revenue which often evokes concerns about economic stability. However, it is crucial to recognize that a higher fiscal deficit does not inherently signify economic challenges.
It can result from prudent investments in essential sectors such as education, healthcare, infrastructure, and responses to emergencies or economic downturns. Deficit financing is a strategic tool for stimulating growth, supporting job creation, and bolstering economic resilience.
Looking beyond traditional economic indicators is imperative for assessing a country’s wellness. The Human Development Index (HDI), which incorporates life expectancy, education, and per capita income, offers a more holistic perspective on well-being.
Similarly, the Gini coefficient provides insights into income inequality, with lower values indicating a fairer distribution of wealth. Additionally, the poverty rate highlights the proportion of the population living below the poverty line, while the unemployment rate reflects job availability.
These indices, alongside others, such as environmental sustainability measures and social progress indicators, contribute to a more nuanced understanding of a nation’s overall welfare.
While Nigeria may exhibit higher inflation rates and fiscal deficits to GDP ratio than Ghana, alongside lower GDP growth and GDP per capita figures, these metrics alone do not signify Ghana’s socio-economic superiority.
A holistic evaluation encompassing a range of economic, social, and environmental indicators is imperative to ascertain the true state of each nation’s wellness. Thus, any declarations regarding Ghana’s superiority over Nigeria should be approached cautiously, recognizing the multifaceted nature of the factors influencing overall prosperity.
Kenechukwu Aguolu is a Business Analyst, Project Manager, Chartered Accountant, and Public Affairs Analyst from Abuja, and can be reached via [email protected]
Feature/OPED
The Future of Payments: Key Trends to Watch in 2025
By Luke Kyohere
The global payments landscape is undergoing a rapid transformation. New technologies coupled with the rising demand for seamless, secure, and efficient transactions has spurred on an exciting new era of innovation and growth. With 2025 fast approaching, here are important trends that will shape the future of payments:
1. The rise of real-time payments
Until recently, real-time payments have been used in Africa for cross-border mobile money payments, but less so for traditional payments. We are seeing companies like Mastercard investing in this area, as well as central banks in Africa putting focus on this.
2. Cashless payments will increase
In 2025, we will see the continued acceleration of cashless payments across Africa. B2B payments in particular will also increase. Digital payments began between individuals but are now becoming commonplace for larger corporate transactions.
3. Digital currency will hit mainstream
In the cryptocurrency space, we will see an increase in the use of stablecoins like United States Digital Currency (USDC) and Tether (USDT) which are linked to US dollars. These will come to replace traditional cryptocurrencies as their price point is more stable. This year, many countries will begin preparing for Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs), government-backed digital currencies which use blockchain.
The increased uptake of digital currencies reflects the maturity of distributed ledger technology and improved API availability.
4. Increased government oversight
As adoption of digital currencies will increase, governments will also put more focus into monitoring these flows. In particular, this will centre on companies and banks rather than individuals. The goal of this will be to control and occasionally curb runaway foreign exchange (FX) rates.
5. Business leaders buy into AI technology
In 2025, we will see many business leaders buying into AI through respected providers relying on well-researched platforms and huge data sets. Most companies don’t have the budget to invest in their own research and development in AI, so many are now opting to ‘buy’ into the technology rather than ‘build’ it themselves. Moreover, many businesses are concerned about the risks associated with data ownership and accuracy so buying software is another way to avoid this risk.
6. Continued AI Adoption in Payments
In payments, the proliferation of AI will continue to improve user experience and increase security. To detect fraud, AI is used to track patterns and payment flows in real-time. If unusual activity is detected, the technology can be used to flag or even block payments which may be fraudulent.
When it comes to user experience, we will also see AI being used to improve the interface design of payment platforms. The technology will also increasingly be used for translation for international payment platforms.
7. Rise of Super Apps
To get more from their platforms, mobile network operators are building comprehensive service platforms, integrating multiple payment experiences into a single app. This reflects the shift of many users moving from text-based services to mobile apps. Rather than offering a single service, super apps are packing many other services into a single app. For example, apps which may have previously been used primarily for lending, now have options for saving and paying bills.
8. Business strategy shift
Recent major technological changes will force business leaders to focus on much shorter prediction and reaction cycles. Because the rate of change has been unprecedented in the past year, this will force decision-makers to adapt quickly, be decisive and nimble.
As the payments space evolves, businesses, banks, and governments must continually embrace innovation, collaboration, and prioritise customer needs. These efforts build a more inclusive, secure, and efficient payment system that supports local to global economic growth – enabling true financial inclusion across borders.
Luke Kyohere is the Group Chief Product and Innovation Officer at Onafriq
Feature/OPED
Ghana’s Democratic Triumph: A Call to Action for Nigeria’s 2027 Elections
In a heartfelt statement released today, the Conference of Nigeria Political Parties (CNPP) has extended its warmest congratulations to Ghana’s President-Elect, emphasizing the importance of learning from Ghana’s recent electoral success as Nigeria gears up for its 2027 general elections.
In a statement signed by its Deputy National Publicity Secretary, Comrade James Ezema, the CNPP highlighted the need for Nigeria to reclaim its status as a leader in democratic governance in Africa.
“The recent victory of Ghana’s President-Elect is a testament to the maturity and resilience of Ghana’s democracy,” the CNPP stated. “As we celebrate this achievement, we must reflect on the lessons that Nigeria can learn from our West African neighbour.”
The CNPP’s message underscored the significance of free, fair, and credible elections, a standard that Ghana has set and one that Nigeria has previously achieved under former President Goodluck Jonathan in 2015. “It is high time for Nigeria to reclaim its position as a beacon of democracy in Africa,” the CNPP asserted, calling for a renewed commitment to the electoral process.
Central to CNPP’s message is the insistence that “the will of the people must be supreme in Nigeria’s electoral processes.” The umbrella body of all registered political parties and political associations in Nigeria CNPP emphasized the necessity of an electoral system that genuinely reflects the wishes of the Nigerian populace. “We must strive to create an environment where elections are free from manipulation, violence, and intimidation,” the CNPP urged, calling on the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) to take decisive action to ensure the integrity of the electoral process.
The CNPP also expressed concern over premature declarations regarding the 2027 elections, stating, “It is disheartening to note that some individuals are already announcing that there is no vacancy in Aso Rock in 2027. This kind of statement not only undermines the democratic principles that our nation holds dear but also distracts from the pressing need for the current administration to earn the trust of the electorate.”
The CNPP viewed the upcoming elections as a pivotal moment for Nigeria. “The 2027 general elections present a unique opportunity for Nigeria to reclaim its position as a leader in democratic governance in Africa,” it remarked. The body called on all stakeholders — including the executive, legislature, judiciary, the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), and civil society organisations — to collaborate in ensuring that elections are transparent, credible, and reflective of the will of the Nigerian people.
As the most populous African country prepares for the 2027 elections, the CNPP urged all Nigerians to remain vigilant and committed to democratic principles. “We must work together to ensure that our elections are free from violence, intimidation, and manipulation,” the statement stated, reaffirming the CNPP’s commitment to promoting a peaceful and credible electoral process.
In conclusion, the CNPP congratulated the President-Elect of Ghana and the Ghanaian people on their remarkable achievements.
“We look forward to learning from their experience and working together to strengthen democracy in our region,” the CNPP concluded.
Feature/OPED
The Need to Promote Equality, Equity and Fairness in Nigeria’s Proposed Tax Reforms
By Kenechukwu Aguolu
The proposed tax reform, involving four tax bills introduced by the Federal Government, has received significant criticism. Notably, it was rejected by the Governors’ Forum but was still forwarded to the National Assembly. Unlike the various bold economic decisions made by this government, concessions will likely need to be made on these tax reforms, which involve legislative amendments and therefore cannot be imposed by the executive. This article highlights the purposes of taxation, the qualities of a good tax system, and some of the implications of the proposed tax reforms.
One of the major purposes of taxation is to generate revenue for the government to finance its activities. A good tax system should raise sufficient revenue for the government to fund its operations, and support economic and infrastructural development. For any country to achieve meaningful progress, its tax-to-GDP ratio should be at least 15%. Currently, Nigeria’s tax-to-GDP ratio is less than 11%. The proposed tax reforms aim to increase this ratio to 18% within the next three years.
A good tax system should also promote income redistribution and equality by implementing progressive tax policies. In line with this, the proposed tax reforms favour low-income earners. For example, individuals earning less than one million naira annually are exempted from personal income tax. Additionally, essential goods and services such as food, accommodation, and transportation, which constitute a significant portion of household consumption for low- and middle-income groups, are to be exempted from VAT.
In addition to equality, a good tax system should ensure equity and fairness, a key area of contention surrounding the proposed reforms. If implemented, the amendments to the Value Added Tax could lead to a significant reduction in the federal allocation for some states; impairing their ability to finance government operations and development projects. The VAT amendments should be holistically revisited to promote fairness and national unity.
The establishment of a single agency to collect government taxes, the Nigeria Revenue Service, could reduce loopholes that have previously resulted in revenue losses, provided proper controls are put in place. It is logically easier to monitor revenue collection by one agency than by multiple agencies. However, this is not a magical solution. With automation, revenue collection can be seamless whether it is managed by one agency or several, as long as monitoring and accountability measures are implemented effectively.
The proposed tax reforms by the Federal Government are well-intentioned. However, all concerns raised by Nigerians should be looked into, and concessions should be made where necessary. Policies are more effective when they are adapted to suit the unique characteristics of a nation, rather than adopted wholesale. A good tax system should aim to raise sufficient revenue, ensure equitable income distribution, and promote equality, equity, and fairness.
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