Feature/OPED
Why Kamala Harris Lost and How Donald Trump Won: A Deep Analysis of the 2024 US Election
By Ifeanyi Abraham
Today, I am mourning, but this too shall favour me—Donald Trump’s victory and Kamala Harris’s loss carry lessons for us all. She joined the race just 107 days ago, facing a former president who began his campaign journey nearly eight years prior. No easy feat.
In 2016, I wrote an article for HuffPost titled ‘Five Quick Lessons From The 2016 US Election Results – What A Donald Trump Win Tells Us.’ Back then, I explored what a Trump victory signified for democracy and how it reflected the people’s power to rise above societal expectations and media narratives. Democracy, in its raw form, had spoken, and I accepted the results as a lesson in the resilience of choice—even when those choices may be bewildering to some.
As I process the loss of Kamala Harris in this election, I find myself in a familiar place. Only this time, my feelings are deeper, more personal. I was wholeheartedly pro-Kamala because I believed her ascent to the highest office was an opportunity for the United States to rise above its historical misogyny, to embrace progress, and to validate the dreams of countless women and people of color who see themselves reflected in her story.
Losing this chance feels like a setback. But, as I reminded myself in 2016, democracy sometimes challenges us to accept results we did not expect or want. Yet, in every loss, there is a lesson, a seed of transformation waiting to bloom.
The journey toward equality and justice is never a straight line. And while today’s results may not reflect the progress we hoped for, they do not erase the strides made or the path forward. Kamala’s impact, her vision, and her voice remain, and so does the fight for an America that lives up to its ideals.
So where did things go wrong, and why, despite everything stacked against him, did Donald Trump manage to secure a win once more?”
Where Kamala Might Have Gotten It Wrong
- Disconnect with Key Voter Concerns: Kamala’s campaign leaned heavily into issues like reproductive rights, social justice, and healthcare reform. While these are undeniably important to many Americans, they may not have resonated as strongly with voters whose primary concerns were economic stability, national security, and border control. With rising inflation, job insecurity, and worries over crime, many Americans felt an acute need for economic and personal security. In contrast, Kamala’s emphasis on progressive social policies may have seemed less relevant or even disconnected from these immediate, everyday concerns. Furthermore, her focus on issues that resonate with urban and coastal areas may have alienated rural and working-class voters, who felt overlooked or misunderstood by the campaign.
- The Elon Musk, X, and Former Democrats Factor: The influence of figures like Elon Musk, along with platforms like X (formerly Twitter), created a new dynamic in the political landscape. Musk’s outspoken criticisms of progressive policies and endorsement of more centrist or libertarian values resonated with former Democrats and independents who had grown disillusioned with the party’s direction. His support for free speech and critique of “woke” culture resonated with voters who felt that the Democratic Party had strayed too far left. Musk’s platform, X, became a prominent space for these discussions, amplifying voices that criticized Harris and the Democratic establishment.
- Concerns Around Her Perception of Ascension: When President Biden stepped aside, Kamala Harris was swiftly positioned as the natural successor—a move that came with both benefits and pitfalls. While it solidified her as the party’s standard-bearer, it also raised questions about whether the Democrats had shielded Biden’s health and cognitive issues for too long. Some voters felt blindsided, questioning the transparency of the administration. The rapid transition to Kamala’s candidacy, though understandable given the need to rally quickly, left little room for a thorough exploration of alternative Democratic candidates who might have appealed to a broader base.
This accelerated timeline and sense of inevitability surrounding Kamala’s candidacy may have alienated voters who prefer a primary process that gives a wider field a fair shot. With other Democratic contenders overlooked or sidelined, some voters felt that the party’s decision was more about maintaining the status quo than refreshing its leadership. As a result, Kamala’s campaign began with a perception of entitlement—an “ascension” rather than a competitive win—leaving her vulnerable to criticisms of being out of touch with everyday Americans who valued humility and felt their voices weren’t fully considered in the process.
- Perceptions of Competence and Authenticity: Kamala’s past as a prosecutor brought mixed perceptions. For some, her record on criminal justice issues conflicted with her progressive stances, leading to questions of authenticity. The “top cop” label, often used by critics, created an image that didn’t align seamlessly with the values of the Democratic Party’s left-leaning base, who prioritize criminal justice reform. Simultaneously, accusations of being “out of touch” with working-class Americans added to this perception. Even though she grew more effective as she campaigned, her initial challenges in relating to middle America and rural voters left a lasting impression.
- The Jill Stein, Nikki Haley, and Independents Factor: The presence of independent and third-party candidates such as Jill Stein and Republican Nikki Haley introduced new dynamics that complicated Kamala’s campaign. Candidates like Stein appealed to disenchanted progressives who felt that Kamala was not progressive enough, pulling votes from the left. Meanwhile, Nikki Haley’s appeal to moderate conservatives and independents added pressure from the right, attracting voters who valued a more measured conservative approach. This splitting of the voter base on both sides left Kamala with less room to consolidate support, especially among independents who were disillusioned with the Democratic and Republican establishments alike.
- Electability and Gender Bias: Kamala faced a persistent double standard, rooted in deeply ingrained biases about gender and leadership. Women in politics are often held to a higher standard of “likability” and perceived strength. Kamala, in particular, faced questions about her ability to handle the presidency with the same assertiveness traditionally expected of male candidates. Voters may have unfairly scrutinised her for appearing “too ambitious” or not “tough enough,” a criticism rarely levelled at her male counterparts. This bias not only influenced perceptions of her competence but also played into narratives that questioned her ability to lead in times of crisis.
Why Donald Trump Won Despite Controversies
- Message of Economic Strength and Stability: Despite improvements in the broader economic metrics under President Biden—such as reduced inflation, stock market gains, and job growth—many Americans remained unconvinced. For them, the economy wasn’t measured by stock performance or government data but by the money in their pockets, the prices at grocery stores, and a feeling of financial security. Trump’s messaging zeroed in on this gap, emphasizing how he would “make America prosperous again” in a way that spoke directly to the daily experiences of working Americans. By framing the economy in terms of immediate, tangible outcomes rather than complex indicators, Trump won over voters who felt that economic recovery hadn’t reached their wallets.
- Immigration and Border Control: Immigration proved to be one of the most decisive issues for voters in this election. Trump’s hardline stance and frequent focus on securing borders struck a chord with voters concerned about national security and economic opportunity. His rhetoric painted immigration as an urgent threat to American stability, framing it in terms of job competition, increased crime, and resource strain. This focus played particularly well in states and communities where anti-immigrant sentiment was already strong, amplifying voter concerns that weren’t fully addressed by Harris or the Democratic campaign. Trump’s willingness to embrace the immigration debate, even if it was controversial, attracted voters who felt unheard on this issue by the establishment.
- Polarizing Yet Relatable Persona: Trump’s persona as an “outsider” and a disruptor made him relatable to a large portion of the electorate that feels disillusioned with career politicians. His blunt, often brash style—and his willingness to push against traditional decorum—resonated with Americans who viewed polished political figures as inauthentic or out of touch. Trump’s unfiltered, often controversial approach gave the impression of authenticity, endearing him to voters who prioritize a “tell-it-like-it-is” attitude. For many, he came across as a leader willing to fight against the elite on their behalf, which helped him energize a loyal base that saw him as genuinely committed to their values.
- Single-Issue Voters on Social and Cultural Issues: Social and cultural issues such as abortion, religious freedom, and gun rights continue to drive a significant portion of the electorate. Trump’s open support for conservative values in these areas made him a stronghold for single-issue voters who saw him as the steadfast choice to protect their values. Many conservative voters, for example, felt that Trump’s Supreme Court nominations and stance on abortion were directly aligned with their own priorities. For these voters, his personal controversies were far outweighed by his commitment to conservative social policies, making him the clear choice to uphold what they view as American values.
- Media Influence and Distrust: One of Trump’s most powerful strategies was his ability to leverage distrust of mainstream media. Trump reframed media attacks on him as attacks on his supporters, fueling a sense of solidarity among his base. This loyalty insulated him from many controversies, as his supporters grew to see critical media coverage as biased or even malicious. For these voters, criticisms of Trump only strengthened their support, further fueling his base’s enthusiasm. This distrust toward traditional media allowed Trump to sidestep controversies that might have impacted a more conventional candidate.
- Embracing Non-Conventional Media to Amplify His Message: Trump took an innovative approach in reaching potential voters by embracing non-traditional platforms like podcasts and long-form discussions. Unlike many politicians who rely primarily on major networks or structured campaign rallies, Trump reached voters directly by appearing on popular podcasts across political and cultural spectrums, appealing to audiences that may not have tuned in to traditional news sources. These appearances allowed him to explain his positions in-depth, unfiltered, and in a style more conversational than combative. By adopting these formats, Trump expanded his reach and tapped into a diverse audience, resonating particularly with younger, independent voters who frequent these platforms and view long-form content as more authentic than sound bites.
What Trump Might Actually Do Right from a Global Perspective
- Strengthening Economic Ties Through Strategic Trade Agreements: Trump has historically favoured bilateral trade agreements over multilateral ones, aiming to secure deals that directly benefit the U.S. economy. His focus on “America First” trade policies may provide opportunities for revitalising manufacturing sectors, protecting intellectual property, and creating jobs domestically. By striking balanced, mutually beneficial deals with allies and emerging markets, Trump could not only bolster U.S. economic influence but also encourage fair trade practices worldwide. With strengthened economic ties, the U.S. would be positioned as a more stable partner for global trade, potentially fostering closer alliances and reducing dependency on single large economies like China.
- Addressing China’s Global Influence: Trump’s hardline stance on China remains a defining feature of his foreign policy approach. While his administration’s tariffs and sanctions against Chinese goods were met with mixed reactions, they underscored a commitment to countering what he perceives as China’s unfair trade practices, intellectual property theft, and regional aggression. Trump’s policies may encourage other nations to join the U.S. in adopting a more robust, unified stance against China’s economic monopolisation, especially in technology and infrastructure. A strong U.S.-led coalition could press China to adhere to fair trade standards, promoting a more balanced global economy and checking China’s expanding influence in regions like Africa, South America, and Southeast Asia.
- Encouraging Energy Independence and Technological Innovation: Trump has consistently advocated for energy independence, historically focusing on fossil fuels. However, this term offers an opportunity to expand into alternative energy sources. By supporting investment in renewables, nuclear power, and technologies like electric vehicles and carbon capture, Trump could position the U.S. as a global leader in sustainable energy solutions. Such advancements would not only reduce reliance on Middle Eastern oil but also create new avenues for global partnerships in clean technology. If Trump embraces innovation alongside traditional energy sources, the U.S. could drive a new era of sustainable economic growth and provide leadership in addressing global environmental concerns.
- Revamping NATO and International Defense Alliances: Trump has often been critical of NATO allies for not meeting their defense spending commitments, but his pressure has led to increased contributions from European nations. Continuing to push for fairer burden-sharing among NATO members could strengthen the alliance, making it more self-reliant and prepared to respond to security threats. By fostering a more balanced and capable NATO, Trump could also enhance global stability, reassuring allies in Eastern Europe and reducing dependency on U.S. military resources. This approach might help solidify the West’s collective defense stance, particularly as it navigates complex challenges like the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
- Potential Role in Ending the Russia-Ukraine Conflict: Trump has expressed intentions to broker peace between Russia and Ukraine, claiming he could bring both sides to the table for negotiation. While this claim is controversial, Trump’s unique relationship with Russia may enable him to leverage diplomatic channels that have remained closed to other leaders. If Trump were to adopt a balanced, pragmatic approach, he might help facilitate a ceasefire or peace talks, potentially de-escalating one of the world’s most destabilising conflicts.
- Engaging Israel and Middle Eastern Politics with a Pro-Israel Stance: Trump has a well-established record of being pro-Israel, with decisions like moving the U.S. embassy to Jerusalem and recognising Israel’s sovereignty over disputed territories solidifying his support. His administration championed the Abraham Accords, which led to historic normalisation agreements between Israel and several Arab states. Given his close alignment with Israel, it’s likely that Trump would continue prioritising policies that bolster Israel’s security and economic interests.
However, there is a hope—especially among Arab Americans and Lebanese Americans with whom he has recently engaged—that he might adopt a more balanced approach to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Although Trump has yet to show significant interest in addressing Palestinian issues, his recent dialogue with Arab communities suggests that he may be open to listening to concerns from both sides. Convincing Trump to prioritise Palestinian welfare or advance solutions that improve Palestinian living conditions remains a challenge, yet there is cautious optimism that his outreach to Arab Americans may bring some degree of increased awareness.
- Shaping Middle Eastern Policy for Stability and Security: Beyond Israel, Trump’s approach to Middle Eastern politics could focus on stabilising countries like Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon, where ongoing conflicts have weakened state structures and allowed terrorist groups to thrive. By fostering partnerships that promote economic aid and counter-terrorism efforts, Trump could encourage a more stable Middle East. His strong relationships with leaders in Saudi Arabia and the UAE could enable a more unified stance on issues such as combating extremism, countering Iranian influence, and supporting economic development initiatives in these nations. A strategically focused Middle Eastern policy could reduce threats to U.S. interests, decrease global oil price volatility, and stabilise a region that has long been a hotbed of conflict.
A Global Path Forward
While Trump’s policies are often divisive, he has the opportunity to shape a foreign policy agenda that reinforces American strength and addresses urgent global issues.
If executed thoughtfully, these efforts could foster a more secure, economically stable world order that aligns with U.S. interests and values.
Assembling a Better Team: Leveraging Expertise and Innovation
One of Trump’s key strengths during the campaign was his ability to galvanize a diverse set of influential figures—people who had previously been critical of him or had vastly different political perspectives. By uniting voices like JD Vance, Elon Musk, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., and Tulsi Gabbard, Trump built a coalition that appealed across a broad political spectrum, resonating with traditional conservatives, independents, and even disillusioned progressives.
JD Vance, once a vocal critic of Trump, became a powerful advocate for his agenda, bringing credibility and support from conservative grassroots. Elon Musk, a champion of free speech and unconventional thinking, found common ground with Trump’s anti-establishment messaging, aligning on issues such as government efficiency and economic innovation. Meanwhile, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., known for his strong views on public health and government transparency, became a valuable ally on issues like reforming the FDA and supporting alternative health perspectives. Tulsi Gabbard, a former Democrat and critic of interventionist policies, added to this coalition with her anti-establishment stance, attracting independents and moderates looking for a candidate willing to challenge traditional party lines.
Here are some ways he can benefit from assembling a powerful team;
- Driving Technological Innovation with Elon Musk: One of the most impactful choices Trump could make is involving visionary leaders like Elon Musk. Musk’s expertise across various tech sectors, from electric vehicles and sustainable energy to space exploration, could guide Trump’s administration in adopting forward-looking policies that position the U.S. as a global leader in innovation. With Musk’s insights, Trump could accelerate initiatives that support electric vehicle adoption, renewable energy infrastructure, and advancements in space technology, aligning economic growth with technological progress. By harnessing Musk’s unique ability to push boundaries, Trump could promote an agenda that not only benefits American industry but also addresses environmental challenges, driving the U.S. to lead in clean energy and high-tech innovation.
- Economic Policy Grounded in Fiscal Responsibility with Ron Paul: Another valuable addition to Trump’s team could be Ron Paul, known for his commitment to free-market principles and fiscal conservatism. Paul’s emphasis on limited government spending, low taxation, and personal economic freedoms could provide a balance to Trump’s more populist, pro-business approach. Paul’s influence could ensure that economic policies are sustainable, with an eye toward reducing national debt and preventing excessive government intervention. Including Paul in an advisory role would likely appeal to conservative voters who prioritise economic responsibility and small government, reinforcing policies that encourage entrepreneurship, reduce bureaucratic burdens, and maintain a focus on long-term fiscal health.
- Building a Cohesive Team for Global Impact: Beyond Musk and Paul, Trump’s administration could benefit from assembling a well-rounded team of strategists and defense experts to address complex global challenges. Advisors with expertise in diplomacy, cybersecurity, trade, and national security could help the administration navigate the intricacies of international relations. This cohesive approach could improve America’s reputation abroad and bolster its influence in global forums, creating a foreign policy strategy that is both robust and adaptable.
- Adapting to Shifting Global Dynamics: With a team of knowledgeable advisors from diverse fields, Trump could adapt to shifting global dynamics more fluidly. As the U.S. faces emerging challenges in areas like artificial intelligence, biotech, and data privacy, advisors such as Musk could inform policies on tech regulation, while experts in international law and ethics could ensure that American technological advancements align with global standards.
Final Reflections
In 2016, I wrote that democracy can surprise us, sometimes forcing us to confront truths we’d rather ignore. Today, I find that this lesson still holds.
While today I mourn, I also recognise that this loss is not the end. America’s future remains unwritten, and Kamala’s campaign—despite its outcome—has left an indelible mark.
Ifeanyi Abraham is a Global PR and Communications Strategist, Founder of The Diverse Business and Tech Summit, FindBlackExperts.com, TechSoma Africa and the Middle East, and Co-Founder of FindExperts
Feature/OPED
How AI Levels the Playing Field for SMEs
By Linda Saunders
Intro: In many small businesses, the owner often starts out as the bookkeeper, the customer-service desk, the IT technician and the person who steps in when a delivery goes wrong. With so many balls up in the air – and such little room for error – one dropped ball can derail the entire day and trigger a chain of problems that’s hard to recover from. Unlike larger companies that have the luxury of spreading the load across dedicated teams and systems, SMEs carry it all on a few shoulders.
South Africa’s SME sector carries significant weight, contributing around 19% of GDP and a third of formal employment, according to the latest available Trade & Industrial Policy Strategies (TIPS) 2024 review. That is causing persistent constraints, including tight margins, erratic demand, high administrative load, and limited internal capacity.
This is not unique to South Africa. Many smaller businesses across the continent still rely on manual processes. It is common to find sales records kept separately from customer notes, or inventory data that is updated only occasionally. The result is slow turnaround times, duplicated effort and a lack of visibility across the business. Given that SMEs have such a huge influence on national economies, accounting for over 90% of all businesses, between 20-40% of GDP in some African countries, and a major source of employment, providing around 80% of jobs, these operational constraints have a broad impact on economies.
What has changed in recent years is that digital tools once seen as the preserve of larger companies have become more attainable for smaller operators. They do not remove the structural challenges SMEs face, but they can ease the load. Better systems do not replace judgement, experience or customer relationships; they simply give small companies more room to work with.
Cloud-based systems, automation and integrated customer-management tools have become more affordable and easier to deploy. They do not remove the structural pressures facing small businesses, but they can ease the operational load and create more space for productive work.
Doing more with the teams SMEs already have
Small teams often end up wearing several hats. One person might take customer calls, update stock records, handle service issues and manage follow-ups. When demand rises, these manual processes become harder to sustain. Local surveys regularly point to this strain, showing that smaller companies spend significant portions of the week on paperwork, compliance and routine administrative tasks – work that adds little value but cannot be ignored.
This is where automation is proving useful. Routine tasks such as onboarding new customers, checking documents, routing queries to the right person, logging interactions and sending follow-ups can now run quietly in the background. In larger companies, whole departments handle this work. In small businesses, the same burden has traditionally fallen on one or two people. When these processes run reliably without constant attention, a business with 10 employees can manage busier periods without rushed outsourcing or slipping service standards.
The point is not to replace staff, but to reduce the operational drag that limits what small teams can deliver. Structured workflows give SMEs a level of steadiness they have rarely had the time or money to build themselves.
Using better data to make better decisions
A second constraint facing SMEs is disorganised information. When customer details are lost in email, sales notes in chat groups, stock figures in spreadsheets and queries in separate systems, decisions depend on whatever information happens to be at hand. Forecasting becomes guesswork, and early warning signs are easy to miss.
Putting all this information in a single place changes the quality of decision-making. When sales, service and stock data can be viewed together, patterns become easier to spot: which products are moving, which customers are becoming less active, where delays tend to occur, and which periods consistently drive higher demand.
Importantly, SMEs do not need corporate analytics teams for this. Modern CRM platforms can organise information automatically and surface basic trends. For retailers preparing for 2026, this can help avoid over – or under – stocking. For service businesses, it can highlight customers who may be at risk of leaving, prompting earlier intervention. In competitive markets, having clearer information is a practical advantage.
Building a foundation before the pressure arrives
Rapid growth can be as destabilising for SMEs as an economic downturn. When orders increase, manual processes quickly reach their limit. Errors are more likely, staff become overwhelmed and the customer experience suffers. Many small businesses only upgrade their systems once these problems appear, by which time the cost, both financial and reputational, is already significant.
Putting basic workflow tools and a unified customer record in place early provides a useful buffer. Tasks follow the same steps every time, reducing inconsistency. Customers reach the right person more quickly. Staff spend less time checking or re-entering information and more time on work that matters. These small operational gains compound over time, especially during busy periods.
This is not about chasing every new technology. It is about avoiding a common pattern in the SME sector: when demand rises, systems buckle, and growth becomes more difficult.
Confidence matters as much as capability
Smaller companies understandably worry about risk when adopting new systems. Data protection, monitoring, and compliance can feel daunting without an IT department. The advantage of modern platforms is that many of these protections, like encryption, audit trails, and event monitoring, are built in. Transparent design also helps SMEs understand how automated decisions are made and how customer data is handled.
This reassurance is important because SMEs should not have to choose between improving their operations and protecting their customers’ information.
2026 will reward readiness
Technology will not replace the qualities that give SMEs their edge: personal service, flexibility, and the ability to respond quickly to customer needs. What it can do is relieve the administrative load that prevents those strengths from being fully used.
SMEs that invest in simple automation and better data practices now will enter 2026 with greater capacity and clearer insight. They won’t be competing with larger companies by matching their resources, but by removing the disadvantages that have traditionally held them back.
In the year ahead, the most competitive businesses will not be the biggest; they’ll be the ones that prepared early for the year ahead.
Linda Saunders is the Country Manager & Senior Director Solution Engineering for Africa at Salesforce
Feature/OPED
Why Africa Requires Homegrown Trade Finance to Boost Economic Integration
By Cyprian Rono
Africa’s quest to trade with itself has never been more urgent. With the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) gaining momentum, governments are working to deepen intra-African commerce. The idea of “One African Market” is no longer aspirational; it is emerging as a strategic pathway for economic growth, job creation, and industrial competitiveness. Yet even as infrastructure and regulatory reforms advance, one fundamental question remains; how will Africa finance its cross-border trade, across markets with diverse currencies, regulations, and standards?
Today, only 15 to 18 percent of Africa’s internal trade happens within the continent, compared to 68 percent in Europe and 59 percent in Asia. Closing this gap is essential if AfCFTA is to deliver prosperity to Africa’s 1.3 billion people.
A major constraint is the continent’s huge trade finance deficit, which exceeds USD 81 billion annually, according to the African Development Bank. Small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), which provide more than 80 percent of the continent’s jobs, are the most affected. Many struggle with insufficient collateral, stringent risk profiling and compliance requirements that mirror international banking standards rather than the realities of African business.
To build integrated value chains, exporters and importers must operate within trusted, predictable, and interconnected financial systems. This requires strong pan-African financial institutions with both local knowledge and continental reach.
Homegrown trade finance is therefore indispensable. Pan-African banks combine deep domestic roots with extensive regional reach, making them the most credible engines for financing trade integration. By retaining financial activity within the continent, homegrown lenders reduce exposure to external shocks and keep liquidity circulating locally. They also strengthen existing regional payment infrastructure such as the Pan-African Payment and Settlement System (PAPSS), developed by the Africa Export-Import Bank (Afreximbank) and backed by the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) Secretariat, enabling faster, cheaper and seamless cross-border payments across the continent.
Digital transformation amplifies this advantage. Real-time payments, seamless Know-Your-Customer (KYC) verification, automated credit scoring and consistent service delivery across markets are essential for intra-African trade. Institutions such as Ecobank, operating in 34 African countries with integrated core banking systems, demonstrate how such digital ecosystems can enable continent-wide commerce.
Platforms such as Ecobank’s Omni, Rapidtransfer and RapidCollect, together with digital account-opening services, make it much easier for traders to operate across borders. Rapidtransfer enables instant, secure payments across Ecobank’s 34-country network, reducing delays in regional trade, while RapidCollect gives cross-border enterprises the ability to receive payments from multiple African countries into a single account with real-time confirmation and automated reconciliation. Together, these solutions create an integrated digital ecosystem that lowers friction, accelerates payments, and strengthens intra-African commerce.
Trust, however, remains a significant barrier. Cross-border commerce depends on the confidence that partners will honour contracts, deliver goods as promised, pay on time, and present authentic documentation. Traders often lack reliable information on potential partners, operate under different regulatory regimes, and exchange documents that are difficult to verify across borders. This heightens the risk of fraud, non-payment, and contractual disputes, discouraging businesss from expanding beyond familiar markets.
Technology is closing this trust gap. Artificial Intelligence enables lenders to assess risk using alternative data for SMEs without formal credit histories. Distributed ledger tools make shipping documents, certificates of origin, and inspection reports tamper-proof. In addition, supply-chain visibility platforms enable real-time tracking of goods and cross-border digital KYC ensures that both buyers and sellers are verified before any transaction occurs.
Ecobank’s Single Trade Hub embodies this trust infrastructure by offering a secure digital marketplace where buyers and sellers can trade with confidence, even in markets where no prior relationships exist. The platform’s Trade Intelligence suite provides customers instant access to market data from customs information and product classification tools across 133 countries.
Through its unique features such as the classification of best import/export markets, over 25,000 market and industry reports, customs duty calculators, and local and universal customs classification codes, businesses can accurately assess market opportunities, anticipate trends, reduce compliance risks, and optimise supply chains, ultimately helping them compete and grow in regional and global markets.
SMEs need more than financing. Many operate in cash-heavy cycles where suppliers and logistics providers require upfront payment. Lenders can support these businesses with advisory services, business intelligence, compliance guidance, and platforms for secure partner verification, contract negotiation, and secure settlement of payments. Trade fairs, industry forums, and partnerships with chambers of commerce further build the trust networks needed for cross-border trade.
Ultimately, Africa’s path toward meaningful trade integration begins with financial integration. AfCFTA’s promise will only be realised when enterprises can trade with confidence, knowing that payments will be honoured, partners verified, and disputes resolved. This requires collaboration between banks, regulators, and trade institutions, alongside harmonised financial regulations, interoperable payment systems, and continent-wide verification networks.
Africa can no longer rely on external actors to finance its trade. Its economic transformation depends on strong, trusted, and digitally enabled African financial institutions that understand Africa’s unique risks and opportunities. By building an African-led trade finance ecosystem, the continent can unlock liquidity, reduce dependence on external currencies, empower SMEs, and retain more value locally. Africa’s trade revolution will accelerate when its financing is driven by African institutions, African systems, and African ambition.
Cyprian Rono is the Director of Corporate and Investment Banking for Kenya and EAC at Ecobank Kenya
Feature/OPED
Tax Reform or Financial Exclusion? The Trouble with Mandatory TINs
By Blaise Udunze
It is not only questionable but an aberration that a nation where over 38million Nigerians remain financially excluded, where trust in institutions is fragile, and where citizens are pressured under the weight of rising living costs, the use of Tax Identification Number (TIN) has been specified as the only option for their bank accounts operation from January 1, 2026 by the Federal Government of Nigeria.
In practice, the policy spearheaded by Taiwo Oyedele, Chairman of the Presidential Committee on Fiscal Policy and Tax Reforms, is rooted in the Nigerian Tax Administration Act (NTAA), and the intention can be understood in the areas of improving tax compliance, widening the tax net, and formalizing economic activities. But in practice, the directive risks becoming yet another well-meaning reform that punishes the wrong people, disrupts financial inclusiveness, and potentially destabilises an already stressed economy.
Yes, Nigeria needs tax reforms. Yes, the country must broaden its tax base. And yes, public revenues must increase to address fiscal pressures.
But compelling citizens to obtain TINs as a condition for operating bank accounts is the wrong tool for the right objective.
Below are five core arguments against the directive, and sustainable alternatives that actually strengthen tax compliance without endangering banking access or punishing informal earners.
The Directive Risks Deepening Financial Exclusion
Nigeria still struggles with financial inclusion. According to several official assessments, over 38 million adults remain outside the formal financial system. Many of them operate small, irregular businesses, survive through subsistence earnings, or depend on cash-based livelihoods.
The Federal Government’s compulsory TIN-for-bank-accounts policy is built on the assumption that every banked Nigerian is structured, organised, and tax-ready. This is false.
For instance, the rural market woman with N30,000 in rotating savings, the okada rider who deposits cash once a week, the petty trader using a mobile POS agent account, the retiring pensioner managing a small monthly income, and the migrant worker sends small remittances to their family. These are not tax evaders; they are survivalists.
Most operate bank accounts not because they run formal businesses, but because those accounts are essential to modern financial life: receiving transfers, accessing loans, participating in digital commerce, saving against emergencies, and avoiding the risks of moving cash in insecure environments.
By creating an additional bureaucratic barrier, the directive risks pushing millions back into a cash-dominant shadow economy, precisely the opposite outcome of what Nigeria’s financial-sector reforms are trying to achieve.
Bank Accounts Are Not Proof of Taxable Income
The NTAA clarifies that the TIN requirement applies only to taxable persons, individuals engaged in trade, employment, or income-generating activities.
But herein lies the problem: banks cannot determine who is “taxable” and who is not. Banks only see deposits and withdrawals. They do not audit the source or consistency of income. They are not tax authorities.
A student may run a small online clothing resale gig. A retiree may occasionally rent out farmland.
A dependent may receive cash support from a relative abroad. A job seeker may get intermittent gifts from family.
Who decides which of these scenarios qualifies as taxable? Banks? FIRS? Or will citizens be expected to self-declare under threat of account restrictions?
The result will be confusion, over-compliance, and mass panic with banks indiscriminately demanding TINs from everyone to avoid regulatory penalties.
This not only contradicts the spirit of the law but also exposes ordinary Nigerians to harassment and arbitrary compliance requirements.
The Policy Could Trigger Disruption, Panic Withdrawals, and Cash Hoarding
Whenever Nigerians perceive threats to their access to funds, the natural reaction is withdrawal and hoarding. We saw it during:
– the 2023 Naira redesign crisis,
– the 2016 TSA-bank consolidation tightening, and multiple periods of financial instability.
Telling citizens that bank accounts may face “operational restrictions” if they do not obtain a TIN creates a predictable behavioural response: people will rush to withdraw money.
This would be disastrous for a banking system already pressured by:
– high interest rates,
– inflation eroding deposits,
– rising loan defaults, and
– declining public trust.
Any government policy that unintentionally creates an incentive for citizens to flee the formal banking system is counterproductive.
The TIN Requirement Will Become a Bureaucratic Nightmare
Even if millions of Nigerians want to comply, the system is not ready. Nigeria’s administrative infrastructure does not have the capacity to process tens of millions of TIN registrations within months without:
– long queues,
– delays,
– data mismatches,
– duplicate records, and
– systemic errors.
The National Identity Number (NIN)-SIM registration experience is a painful reminder of what happens when ambitious policy meets weak execution capacity.
– Citizens spent months in overcrowded enrolment centres.
– Millions were blocked from services.
– Data inconsistencies persisted.
– The economy suffered productivity losses.
If Nigeria could not seamlessly synchronise NIN and SIM data, how will it synchronise NIN, BVN, and TIN at a national scale without dislocation?
Forcing TIN Adoption Ignores the Real Problem: Nigeria’s Broken Tax Culture
The Federal Government’s real challenge is not that citizens lack TINs, but that they lack trust in how taxes are used.
A government cannot widen the tax net when:
– tax leakages remain widespread,
– citizens feel services do not match taxation,
– corruption perceptions are high,
– government spending lacks transparency, and
– taxpayers do not feel seen, heard, or valued.
Coercion does not build a tax culture. Engagement does. Policy does not create legitimacy. Accountability does.
If the Federal Government wants Nigerians to freely participate in the tax system, it must earn legitimacy first, not mandate compliance through financial restrictions.
What the Government Should Do Instead: A Smarter Path to Tax Reform
Instead of enforcing a policy that may backfire economically and socially, the Federal Government can adopt four smarter, people-centred alternatives.
– Automatic TIN Issuance Linked to NIN and BVN
Rather than forcing Nigerians to apply manually, the government should:
- auto-generate TINs for all existing BVN/NIN holders,
- send the TINs via SMS, email, and bank alerts,
- allow self-activation only when needed for tax obligations.
This eliminates queues, delays, and confusion.
– Build a Voluntary Tax Compliance Culture Through Transparency and Incentives
Tax morale improves when citizens see value. Government should:
- publish annual audited reports of tax revenue use,
- incentivise compliant taxpayers with benefits (priority access to government grants, credit scoring, etc.),
- simplify tax filings for small businesses.
People comply more when they feel respected, not coerced.
– Target High-Value Tax Evaders, Not Low-Income Account Holders
Nigeria’s real tax leakages come from:
- large corporations shifting profits,
- politically exposed persons,
- illicit financial flows,
- multinational tax avoidance strategies,
- the informal “big money” class operating outside the banking system.
Instead of threatening small depositors, the government should strengthen:
- FIRS intelligence and investigation units,
- inter-agency data integration (CAC, Customs, Immigration),
- beneficial ownership transparency enforcement.
The fight against tax evasion should focus on those hiding billions, not those depositing thousands.
– Strengthen Digital Tax Platforms for Easy Self-Registration and Compliance
If tax registration becomes as easy as opening a social media account, compliance will rise naturally. The government should build:
- a mobile-first tax app,
- simplified online TIN retrieval,
- one-click tax filing for gig workers and small traders.
Digital convenience can achieve what regulatory coercion cannot.
Reform Should Not Punish the Public
No doubt, tax reforms are needed urgently, but they must come with a human face, an intelligent, equitable, and aligned with the realities of ordinary Nigerians.
The TIN-for-bank-accounts policy, while well-intentioned, risks undermining financial inclusion, triggering economic instability, and imposing unnecessary burdens on millions who are not tax evaders but survival-based earners.
Good tax policy is built on trust, not fear. On transparency, not threats. On civic legitimacy, not administrative compulsion.
If the Federal Government truly wants to modernise Nigeria’s tax system, it must focus not on restricting citizens’ access to their own money, but on:
- repairing tax trust,
- digitising compliance,
- targeting the real evaders, and
- making participation easier, not harder.
Financial inclusion took Nigeria decades to build. We cannot afford a policy that carelessly reverses these gains.
A better tax system is possible, but it must start with the people, not with their bank accounts.
Blaise, a journalist and PR professional, writes from Lagos, can be reached via: [email protected]
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