Feature/OPED
Yahaya Bello’s 2023 Quest for Presidency: An Objective Analysis
By Jacob Abai
It was George Washington, a onetime President of the United State of America (USA), who once said that, “The willingness with which our young people are likely to serve in any war, no matter how justified, shall be directly proportional to how they perceive veterans of earlier wars were treated and appreciated by our nation.”
Likewise, Yahaya Adoza Bello, a Nigerian politician, businessman and the current Governor of Kogi State, has through his actions in the past six years, demonstrated that his love for his people, his home state-Kogi and most importantly shown willingness that as a young Nigerian leader, that he is laced with the capacity to take the nation’s socio-economic sector out of the woods while arresting the nagging security challenge that has currently defiled all solutions.
This opinion of mine gained its root from three different but related sources.
First was my conversation with a Kogi-based taxi driver during one of my visits to Abuja, the nation’s Federal Capital Territory (FCT) in preparation for the GbaramatuVoice Newspaper’s 6th Anniversary Lecture/Niger Delta Award.
The secondly was the global commentary about the Governor’s current efforts in the state, while the third and very key came a few days ago from the revelation by the Kogi State Deputy Governor, Mr Edward David Onoja, during a private chat at Lagos EKO Hotel’s venue of the Newspaper’s 6th Anniversary celebration.
He said in part; “Kogi State shares boundaries with about eight to nine states, a case which could have made it easy for the influx of criminals, yet, such cannot be recorded in the state because of the creative leadership daily provided by the Yahaya Bello led state government.”
Can this claim be true? Finding answers to this nagging question via objective analysis is the purpose of this piece.
First, a few months ago, precisely in April 2021, I took a train ride from Warri, Delta State to Itakpe, Kogi State. Arriving at the Itakpe train terminal at noon, I took yet another taxi to connect Abuja. Two minutes into that journey in the taxi, the journalistic instinct in me prompted a topic and the following conversation ensued between the cab operator and me. This taxi looks neat and healthy, I commented. The taxi driver; thank you, sir. Help me thank Oga Yahaya Bello, our state Governor. Why? I probed.
Let’s listen to the driver; he (referring to the Governor) gave us the vehicle as a way of getting us empowered. I am a graduate and for so many years, I have been without a job. Even to feed my family was difficult but upon assuming office, he (the Governor) bought thousands of these cabs and gave them out to the youth/men. Since then, things have changed. I am now a full-fledged man alive to his family duties. Through this cab, I have been able to establish a thriving business for my wife and feeding/my children school fees are no longer giving sleepless nights as I now meet up with those demands effortlessly. Kogi youths, men and women are happy with our amiable Governor and that is more reason we want him as the president come 2023.
On the Governor’s effort in the areas of security, the taxi driver has this to say; “if it were to be before, we cannot pass through this road because of armed robbers and kidnappers. But Governor Yahaya mobilized/stationed on this road many personnel from the Nigerian Army, police and an uncountable number of well-trained and well-equipped local/civilian vigilante groups. Since then, normalcy has returned. Again, the governor has systematically and strategically engaged all hands in the state in different skills and endeavours, criminal activities have drastically reduced in the state.”
Indeed, while this taxi driver praised the Governor all through the journey from Kogi to Abuja, there are in my view signs that he may not be alone in this belief about Yahaya Bello’s ability to fight insecurity in the state.
Recently, a news report dated June 10, 2021, and titled Nigerians in Diaspora endorse Yahaya Bello for 2023 Presidency, shares similar thoughts. It says in part; Nigerians in Diaspora, under the aegis of Nigerians in Diaspora Network and Nigerians in Diaspora Organisation, have endorsed Gov. Yahaya Bello of Kogi as their candidate for the 2023 Presidency. The group made this known during a world press conference in Oberhausen, Germany as they also opened a campaign office to support the movement.
In a statement made available to Vanguard, Odijie Irabor, General Coordinator of the group said the group had jointly selected Bello following thorough research.
The group noted that the attention of the International Community was however caught on Bello following his achievements of fighting insecurity, youth and women inclusion in governance, education development among others.
“We embarked on a massive consultation with our people in the diaspora through our various networks of social-cultural organizations, political organizations, media, religious bodies and many.
“This leads to the constitution of a high-powered committee to carry out a search for a young, viable, formidable, energetic, vibrant and result oriented presidential candidate for the 2023 presidential election in Nigeria.”
“Clamour for a youth president; Nigerians are condemning the preponderance of over-aged candidates for the exalted position of presidency.
“In this current political dispensation, Governor Yahaya Bello is known to be the youngest governor in Nigeria with the desired physical and mental capacity to meet the growing complexity and diversity in our political environment.
“High-security index in Kogi state; the most important function of a responsible government is the provision of security for lives and property.
“Notwithstanding the total collapse of the security architecture in Nigeria, Kogi state under the leadership of Governor Yahaya Bello has recorded a very stable security atmosphere across the state.
The situation says something else. This time around let’s cast a glance at how Olujonwo Obasanjo, son of former president Olusegun Obasanjo, added his voice to the relentless calls on Governor Yahaya Bello of Kogi to vie for the office of Nigeria’s president come 2023 as timely.
Olujonwo, who described Bello as a beacon of hope, urged the governor to step up his aspirations in order to create leadership space for the youths.
Obasanjo made the statement while paying a courtesy call on the governor in Abuja added that Nigerian youths have been neglected for too long despite the numerical strength and huge contributions in electioneering processes, have been denied the space to manifest their aspirations in political decisions making.
He said the energy and patriotism of the youths can never be in doubt – noting that at 35-45 of age, current elder statesmen like General Muhammadu Buhari, Gen T. Y. Danjuma, Yakubu Gowon and of course his father, Olusegun Obasanjo were at their best in nation-building and leadership. Envisaging a Yahaya Bello presidency, he harped on the total inclusion of youths in governance – a catalyst for fruitful, timely and productive governance templates for the people.
With a Bello presidency, there is no doubt that youths of competence and patriotic valour under the age of 27-30 can be ministers,’ he stressed.
While applauding the governor for his watertight fight against insecurity, infrastructural development drive and his wise decision and proactive leadership thrust in resolving the food blockade crises, Obasanjo tasked Bello to remain resolute and unshaken in his audacious push of occupying the seat of power come 2023.
Before the dust raised by this excitement created by Olujonwo’s kind words could settle, a heavier one created by that of his father was up as it was again reported that Mr Olusegun Obasanjo also urged the governor to sustain his effort in providing security for his state, noting that Kogi is central to the nation’s peace and development”.
“Former President Obasanjo noted that the fight against insecurity should have everybody on board, stressing that governors should involve everyone to ensure insecurity is curtailed in Nigeria.”
“While appreciating the governor for his developmental effort in the state especially in the areas of youth and women inclusion in politics and governance, infrastructure, health and education, Obasanjo charged Governor Bello to continue to be an advocate for youth involvement in governance.”
The North East Youths Coalition was not left out for the Yahaya 2023 Presidency as they have, going by reports, called on Mr Bello to run for the 2023 presidential election. The coalition which comprises groups of youths from the six states of the region that includes Adamawa, Bauchi, Borno, Gombe, Taraba and Yobe State made the call at a press conference at Zaranda hotel Bauchi.
Led by its chairman Mr Salihu Magaji, the group opined that Yahaya Bello is a youth and energetic who is full of ideas to turn things around for the better in the country.
He said the Kogi state governor as a charismatic leader has a vision of addressing all socio-economic and political challenges facing the country in order to have peace, unity and stability in Nigeria.
He said their declaration of support for Bello is not for selfish interest but to encourage the young Nigerians to occupy the presidential seat.
“The leadership of the Arewa youths coalition who are agitating for the overall development of the region has commended the leadership style of Governor Yahaya Bello for his tireless efforts for coming out to address national issues to end nepotism, colonialism, power-drunk and old method of holding future of our great Nigerian youths to ransom.
Looking at this volume of supports, it is obvious in my view that Governor Yahaya Bello deserves our support.
Jacob Abai is the Publisher/Editor-In-Chief of the Warri, Delta State-based GbaramatuVoice Newspaper. He could be reached via gb************@***il.com
Feature/OPED
What Does Nigeria’s $51bn Reserves Milestone Mean if Most New Foreign Money Can Leave Quickly?
Nigeria’s foreign reserves have climbed to about $51 billion, a decade-plus high, according to the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN). EBC Financial Group (EBC) notes that this reflects stronger investor confidence, but the second half may show whether it holds, as the build rests on three cyclical drivers: oil earnings, short-term foreign money and a narrowing official-to-street naira gap.
Reserves rose from about $32 billion in April 2024, during a dollar shortage, to about $51 billion now, near the CBN’s target. Much came from two cyclical sources, strong oil earnings and money chasing high-yielding naira assets, so EBC expects the pace to slow or reverse. Fitch Ratings, a major international credit rating agency, expects a marginal decline to about $47 billion by the end of 2026, citing higher spending and external pressures.
David Precious, Senior Market Analyst at EBC Financial Group, said, “Nigeria’s reserve build is real but may not be durable yet, because nearly all of the new money is the kind that can leave quickly. Of the $10.37 billion that came in over the first quarter, the overwhelming majority was short-term portfolio funds rather than long-term investment, so a shift in oil prices, global interest rates or confidence in the naira might pull a large part of it straight back out.”
Most New Money Can Still Leave Quickly
The composition of the foreign inflows explains the caution over how long the build can last. The country attracted $10.37 billion in foreign investment in the first quarter of 2026, up 83.83 per cent year-on-year, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). Of that, $9.86 billion or 95.09 per cent, was portfolio money, largely short-term naira debt such as Treasury bills that investors can sell at the next auction, while foreign direct investment, the long-term kind that builds factories and jobs, was $135.08 million, or 1.30 per cent. Put simply, of each dollar coming in, about 95 cents can leave quickly, and barely one cent stays.
That money supports reserves while it stays. Dollars brought in to buy naira assets add to market supply, letting the CBN hold more reserves and steady the naira. It leaves when conditions change. Nigeria earns most of its export dollars from oil and gas, so lower oil prices mean fewer dollars, and as a member of the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), it cannot simply produce more, output capped by quota and reduced by theft and ageing fields. Higher global interest rates draw money toward safer returns abroad, and a weakening naira prompts investors to sell early. When oil fell in 2016 and 2020, foreign investors withdrew and could not convert naira to dollars as supply dried up, leaving the CBN to clear more than $7 billion in trapped obligations into 2024.
The Oil Boost is No Longer Certain
Oil looked like a dependable source of the dollars behind the reserves only months ago. Earlier in 2026, concern over disruption around the Strait of Hormuz lifted crude prices, and stronger receipts flowed in, with crude oil export earnings of $8.11 billion in the first quarter in the CBN’s balance-of-payments data. That support is now easing. The tension has subsided, and Brent traded near $72 on June 29, down about 24 per cent over the month, back to pre-conflict levels. With the price boost gone and output constrained, reserves are more exposed, leaning on non-oil earnings and investor patience rather than oil.
The Naira Still Trades at Two Prices
The naira has traded at two prices, an official rate and a higher parallel-market rate, and closing that gap into one trusted price is what many investors might watch most. Before committing funds, they may want assurance they can convert naira to dollars at a fair rate when they exit, and a wide gap revives the fear of being trapped that lingers from earlier shortages. The gap has narrowed to roughly N20 to N30, with the CBN’s official rate near N1,380 per dollar on June 26 against parallel-market quotes around N1,400. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) 2026 Article IV review urged Nigeria to depend less on this fast-moving portfolio money and to keep phasing out its multiple exchange-rate practices. The CBN’s Foreign Exchange Manual, in force from 1 June, is intended to make the market clearer, though such rules build confidence only once investors can freely trade dollars at the posted rate.
What could Make the Build Durable
A few signs that may show the build turning durable include a smaller gap between the official and street naira rates, more long-term foreign investment, and steadier oil earnings. A gap that stays small, now roughly N20 to N30, may mean investors trust the official rate and no longer need the street market. A clear rise in foreign direct investment, only $135 million last quarter against $9.86 billion of short-term money, might mean lasting capital is replacing funds that can leave at the next auction. Oil earnings that hold up, rather than sliding from the low $70s, should help keep reserves steady, since oil and gas bring in most of Nigeria’s export dollars.
“Reserves built on money chasing high yields can fall as fast as they rose, as they did after the last two oil shocks, when investors left, and the CBN spent years clearing a foreign-exchange backlog,” Precious added. “What holds through a downturn is slower money, direct investment, steady oil and non-oil export earnings and one credible naira rate, and that is the shift Nigeria has yet to make.”
By Olajumoke Bello
Across Nigeria, small and medium enterprises remain the backbone of economic activity. They drive trade, create jobs, and sustain millions of livelihoods. Yet, despite their importance, many SMEs continue to operate below their full potential due to persistent structural challenges.
Access to finance remains one of the most cited constraints. However, the issue today goes beyond the availability of capital. Many businesses struggle with financial readiness, weak documentation, and limited understanding of what lenders require. This often leads to missed opportunities, even when funding options exist.
At the same time, SMEs face gaps in market access and visibility. Business owners operate in highly localised environments, with limited exposure to broader networks that can unlock partnerships, new markets, and growth opportunities. This isolation can constrain scalability and reduce long-term competitiveness.
Equally important is the capability gap. Many entrepreneurs grow through resilience and experience but lack structured knowledge on critical areas such as financial management, export readiness, and digital adoption. Without this, even well-capitalised businesses can struggle to sustain growth.
These challenges point to a clear need for a more practical and integrated approach to SME support. It is no longer sufficient to offer standalone solutions. SMEs require ecosystems that combine knowledge, access, and direct engagement in ways that reflect how they actually operate.
A key shift is the move from centralised interventions to localised engagement. SMEs are deeply influenced by their immediate environments, whether markets, industrial clusters, or trade corridors. Solutions must therefore be brought closer to where these businesses function, allowing for more relevant support and stronger relationships.
Another important shift is from awareness to action. Business owners do not only need information; they need insights that they can apply immediately. This includes understanding how to structure their finances, how to access trade opportunities, and how to connect with the right partners to scale their operations.
There is also a growing need for continuity. Many SME-focused initiatives deliver strong initial impact but lack follow-through. For support to be effective, it must extend beyond one-off engagements into sustained relationships, with clear pathways for onboarding, advisory, and growth.
For financial institutions, this presents both responsibility and an opportunity. Supporting SMEs now requires moving beyond transactional banking to deeper partnership models. It requires understanding businesses at a granular level and co-creating solutions that evolve with their needs.
At Stanbic IBTC, this perspective continues to shape our approach to SME development. Our focus is on delivering practical support that translates into real business outcomes, helping enterprises grow, compete, and contribute more meaningfully to the economy.
As part of this commitment, we are extending our SME engagement to the regions through the Nigeria Business Summit Regional Tour. The tour will take structured, on-ground activations into key commercial hubs, where SMEs can access funding guidance, trade insights, advisory support, and direct engagement with financial experts.
The regional tour will take place across five strategic locations, bringing these solutions closer to business owners in Aba, Onitsha, Ibadan and Kano.
This approach reflects an important principle. When support moves closer to businesses and when solutions are delivered in ways that are practical and continuous, SMEs are better positioned to grow sustainably. In turn, this strengthens not only individual enterprises but the broader economy.
Olajumoke Bello is the Head of Enterprise Banking at Stanbic IBTC Bank
By Winston Osuchukwu
The average Nigerian borrower is widely considered high-risk – a claim repeated in credit committees, priced into retail loans, and largely treated as settled fact. Every credit market accepts that an individual loan may not be repaid; this is ordinary, priced risk. The high-risk claim, however, is applied to whole segments – the informal trader, the gig economy earner whose income is steady but split across several accounts, the remote worker paid by an overseas client into a fintech FX wallet. What the assessment establishes is not whether they are likely to repay, but how they fit into an arbitrary segment. Having spent years building decisioning systems for this market, my thesis is a specific one: “high-risk” does not mean “no credit” – it simply requires that the lender embrace alternative datasets to price the risk appropriately.
This is not a criticism of the institutions that built their frameworks around collateral and documentation; those were rational responses to the tools available at the time. When data is scarce, prudence means defaulting to the status quo. The limitation is not that this approach is wrong, but that it leaves a blind spot – excluding fundamentally sound borrowers whose economic lives simply are not captured on the bank’s ledger. A market trader who has moved consistent, growing volumes of cash through mobile money for three years is not, in any meaningful sense, unknowable. Their financial behaviour is observable and patterned; it simply occurs outside the traditional banking system, rendering it invisible to conventional underwriting.
This is the gap technology is now positioned to close – not by replacing institutional judgment, but by augmenting it. When AI-driven analysis is applied rigorously to the financial behaviour these borrowers generate, a far more complete picture of their repayment ability emerges – and a meaningful share presents a risk profile that compares favourably with segments the traditional system has long considered safe. The “high-risk” label, applied broadly to an entire category of borrower, was never a risk pricing tool so much as the limit of what the available tools could see.
For banks, this is the opportunity to extend capital with confidence beyond the borrowers who fit their stringent criteria. Nigerian banks are highly liquid; the constraint on credit growth has rarely been capital, but the ability to assess and price the borrowers who sit outside the traditional file. Close that gap, and the whole ecosystem strengthens: banks grow their loan books into segments they have long wanted to serve, and the real economy gets the capital it needs to expand.
This is precisely what we focus on at Mathesis Analytics: building AI-powered credit decisioning that gives lenders a fuller, more defensible picture of the individuals long excluded as high-risk when they were simply misjudged. The Nigerian credit gap has never been a non-lendable population problem, but one of incomplete visibility. By unifying varied data sources and partnering with the institutions that hold the capital and scale to move the market, we translate out-of-ecosystem behaviour into reliable, bank-grade risk scores. Closing this gap is one of the clearest, highest-leverage opportunities in Nigerian financial services today.
Winston Osuchukwu is the founder & CEO of Mathesis Analytics
