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Sahel Insurgency Pushes Toward Nigeria as Extremist Groups Gain Footholds

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Sahel Insurgency

By Adedapo Adesanya

A new report released by the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED), a Washington-based crisis-tracking consultancy, has warned that extremist groups are jostling for control across West Africa stretching from Mali to Nigeria.

It warned that militant organizations, once contained largely within Mali and parts of Burkina Faso, are now converging along a dangerous belt extending all the way to Nigeria. Over the last decade, tens of thousands have been killed and millions displaced, making West Africa the world’s deadliest hotspot for jihadist activity.

The southward spread of militant violence from the Sahel has made the past year in Benin Republic, which foiled an attempted coup on Sunday, its deadliest on record, with nearly 70 per cent more fatalities as al-Qaeda affiliate Jama’at Nasr al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) stepped up attacks from eastern Burkina Faso.

JNIM crossed a new threshold in October when it staged its first documented attack inside Nigeria after a decade of bloodshed in Mali and major incursions into Burkina Faso and Niger. ACLED reports that the group is now embedding itself in the northwest and parts of the north-central region.

ACLED warns that if current trends persist, 2026 may bring deeper instability and fragmentation in the central Sahel and along its southern borders. Nigeria’s northmost part lies within the southern fringe of the Sahel ecological zone.

Nigeria is already fighting a war against terrorism in the North East, where Boko Haram and Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP) operate across the Lake Chad basin.

This development presents a fresh security dilemma for President Bola Tinubu, who is already contending with mass abductions, banditry, and long-running insurgencies.

He already faces additional pressure from US President Donald Trump, whose claims of systematic killings of Christians in Nigeria have been widely debunked but continue to fuel diplomatic tension.

ACLED noted that Russia’s military partnerships with juntas in Niger, Burkina Faso and Mali, which seized power in recent years riding a wave of anti-French sentiment are weak, evidenced by Mali currently witnessing its highest monthly levels of recorded violence since 1997.

It also noted that the region’s wave of coups has only worsened long-standing drivers of extremism: deepening poverty, environmental stress, corruption, broken governance, and humanitarian collapse. Just recently, a coup occurred in Guinea Bissau and one was almost successful in neighbouring Benin Republic.

“In the coming year, this subregion is likely to become a key arena of competition among militant groups,” Mr Heni Nsaibia, West Africa senior analyst at ACLED, said in the report. “One of the key developments shaping the outlook for 2026 is the consolidation of a new frontline in the Benin, Niger and Nigerian borderlands.”

Adedapo Adesanya is a journalist, polymath, and connoisseur of everything art. When he is not writing, he has his nose buried in one of the many books or articles he has bookmarked or simply listening to good music with a bottle of beer or wine. He supports the greatest club in the world, Manchester United F.C.

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Judge Withdraws from EFCC Cases Against Former AGF Malami

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Abubakar Malami Assets Recovery Campaign

By Adedapo Adesanya

Justice Obiora Egwuatu of the Federal High Court in Abuja has recused himself from the two cases involving the former Attorney General of the Federation, Mr Abubakar Malami, filed by the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC).

Mr Egwuatu was recently reassigned the cases by the Chief Judge of the Federal High Court, and he disclosed that he withdrew for personal reasons and in the interest of justice.

The cases against Mr Malami were formerly before Justice Emeka Nwite of the same court, who was a vacation judge during the festive season.

Mr Egwuatu’s recusal comes after the civil suit for the forfeiture of 57 properties allegedly linked to Mr Malami was called for mention.

The former AGF, his wife, and son are facing a 16-count money laundering charge. They were granted bail on January 7 in the sum of N500 million with two sureties by Justice Emeka Nwite of the Federal High Court in Abuja.

Justice Nwite stated that the sureties must have landed property in Asokoro, Maitama, and Gwarinpa.

The judge added that the trio must submit their travel documents to the court.

The former Minister of Justice is facing a fresh persecution over the arms and ammunition found in his house by the Department of State Service (DSS). The arms were reportedly uncovered at his Kebbi country home by the operatives of the EFCC during a search.

The anti-graft agency handed the weapon to the secret police for a comprehensive probe, citing a lack of constitutional authority to investigate the possession.

Similarly, the former AGF was accused of knowingly abetting terrorism financing by refusing to prosecute terrorism financiers whose case files were brought to his office as the AGF in the last administration for prosecution. Alongside his son, the lawyer was accused by the DSS of engaging in conduct in preparation to commit an act of terrorism by having in their possession and without a licence, a Sturm Magnum 17-0101 firearm, 16 Redstar AAA 5’20 live rounds of Cartridges and 27 expended Redstar AAA 5’20 Cartridges.

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NLNG Says Low-Risk Key to Unlocking Value in Nigeria’s Gas Industry

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Nigeria LNG Limited NLNG

By Adedapo Adesanya

Nigeria LNG (NLNG) has reaffirmed that a well-structured, low-risk approach in Nigeria’s energy sector is essential to unlocking investments, accelerating economic development and strengthening energy security.

NLNG’s General Manager, Production, Mr Nnamdi Anowi, said this at a panel session titled De-Risking Investments in African Oil and Gas Projects during the Sub-Saharan Africa International Petroleum Exhibition and Conference (SAIPEC) in Lagos, noting that when oil and gas projects are perceived as too risky, investors tend to withdraw, leading to stalled projects, job losses, and missed revenue opportunities critical for national growth.

According to a statement by Mrs Anne-Marie Palmer-Ikuku, Manager, Corporate Communication and Public Affairs, he stated that reducing risks in oil and gas projects, beyond being a business strategy, was a matter of national importance for Nigeria’s economy, energy security, and long-term development.

He further explained that for NLNG, lowering risk means keeping gas flowing reliably, meeting long-term contracts, and ensuring the company remains a trusted supplier to global and domestic markets.

He said this will allow investors to fund projects at a lower cost, which ultimately benefits both companies and the country.

Mr Anowi also highlighted the importance of good infrastructure, local skills, and modern technology in reducing everyday operational risks.

He said that when pipelines, processing facilities, and digital systems work well, projects are safer, cheaper to run, and more reliable over time.

“If we reduce risk the right way and work together, investment will come; the next decade must focus on growing proven, bankable projects that deliver real value to the country, ” he further said.

In his closing remarks, Mr Anowi noted that Africa and Nigeria in particular are investable when risks are planned for and managed carefully, not ignored.

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NUPRC, NNPC Pledge Deeper Collaboration for Operational Efficiency

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By Adedapo Adesanya

The Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) and the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) Limited have pledged to deepen collaboration to boost operational efficiency.

This was the outcome of a meeting between the managements of the NUPRC and the NNPC at the commission’s corporate headquarters in Abuja, where the chief executive of the former, Mrs Oritsemeyiwa Eyesan, said the two oil regulators, as creations of the Nigerian government, have similar goals.

“As major instruments of the government in the industry, we are aligned toward the same goal, and I think this is pivotal, and we must not lose this golden opportunity,” she disclosed.

Further addressing the NNPC team, led by its chief executive, Mr Bayo Ojulari, Mrs Eyesan said the NUPRC is focused on reducing the cost of operations by harmonising fees and rents to make Nigeria’s oil and gas sector more competitive.

To this end, the NUPRC boss revealed that the agencywas working closely with the Oil Producers Trade Section, OPTS, to address the multiplicity of fees and rents to improve Nigeria’s competitiveness.

“We are working with the industry on harmonising the fees and rents that we charge. The whole idea is to harmonise and reduce it to the barest minimum so that we can reduce the cost of operations,” she said.

Mr Eyesan further stated that the Commission is working on enhancing measurement and hydrocarbon accounting.

“We have done the first phase, which is to audit what we already have. The second phase, which will commence shortly, will be the real implementation of the metering standards, and this entire programme will entail us having a data centre and having all the meters in all our locations to standard,” she stated.

The NUPRC boss said the Host Community Development Trust (HCDT) had so far been a success but maintained that there was a need to fully utilise these funds for its intended purpose, as this would enhance community peace and improve the operating environment.

Mrs Eyesan encouraged NNPC, as the country’s national oil company, to participate in the ongoing 2025 licensing round and deepen exploration.

In his remarks, the NNPC GCEO reiterated the need for an improved relationship between the national oil company and the regulator.

Mr Ojulari hailed Mr Eyesan, noting that, “Your antecedents, your track records, your integrity, your forthrightness and clarity for those who have had the privilege of interacting with you, excite the industry.”

He said the NUPRC had continued to demonstrate exceptional leadership in terms of regulation and has been promoting transparency and shaping an enabling environment crucial for investment and operational excellence, which is good for the industry.

The NNPC boss said the national oil firm had recently launched the national gas master plan, which would boost the country’s gas production.

Mr Ojulari said critical projects like the OB3 and the AKK gas pipeline have continued to progress. He also presented a copy of the Gas masterplan to the CCE.

He, however, maintained that there was a need to reduce the cost of operation in Nigeria to attract fresh investments and boost Nigeria’s energy security. This, he said, would not be possible without the NUPRC’s regulatory role.

“As the national energy company operating commercially under the Petroleum Industry Act, our success is intertwined with the regulatory stewardship, which we are absolutely confident will be taken to the next level. We believe that deepening this partnership will greatly enhance our ability to unlock more value for Nigeria,” he stated.

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