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Supply Worries Emerge as Dangote Refinery Makes Less Crude Purchases

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By Adedapo Adesanya

There are indications that the supply of petrol from the Dangote Refinery may drop as the 650,000 barrels per day capacity facility has been buying less crude recently, as per Bloomberg.

The facility is expected to purchase fewer than 300,000 barrels a day of crude this month, according to tanker-tracking data and cargo allocation lists compiled by Bloomberg.

The amount, which includes local supplies and imports, is down more than 50 per cent from a peak in July, and is less than half the plant’s capacity.

About 150,0000 barrels a day of feedstock for this month will come from the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) under the Crude for Naira deal, and the state oil company is set to ship a similar amount to Dangote in November.

This comes amid operational setbacks, which analysts say could persist into next year and lead to an increase in petrol prices.

Last year, Dangote Refinery started producing properly and since then has disrupted operations in Europe and Africa, but in the last few months, it has seen challenges including outages as well as a strike by the Petroleum and Natural Gas Senior Staff Association of Nigeria (PENGASSAN).

This year, Dangote’s petrol producing unit recorded several stoppages and this impacted its ability to meet its target and there are indications that it could shut down again early next year to complete major work, according to intelligence firm IIR Energy.

Bloomberg reported that the shutdown in Nigeria as well as other refineries in Europe and the Middle East have led to increase in petrol prices in the past months.

Several analysts told the publication that the refinery may not operate at a high rate going into 2026.

“We think it is likely that Dangote will continue to face issues next year, albeit to a lesser extent than this year,” said Mr Qilin Tam, head of refining at FGE NexantECA. Unscheduled outages “could add a bullish sentiment to the gasoline market moving forward,” especially ahead of next summer’s driving season.

“European gasoline has been extremely strong as a result of Dangote’s issues,” Sparta Commodities analyst Mr Neil Crosby said. “At the moment Dangote’s track record is poor, and if that keeps going it will be supportive for European gasoline, and to a degree distillate, going forward.”

Any further operational issues at the refinery would curb crude runs and lead to a lower-value mix of oil products in place of gasoline, said Mr Alan Gelder, WoodMac’s vice president of refining, chemicals and oil markets.

Adedapo Adesanya is a journalist, polymath, and connoisseur of everything art. When he is not writing, he has his nose buried in one of the many books or articles he has bookmarked or simply listening to good music with a bottle of beer or wine. He supports the greatest club in the world, Manchester United F.C.

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Deep Blue Project: Mobereola Seeks Air Force Support

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By Adedapo Adesanya

The Director General of the Nigerian Maritime Administration and Safety Agency (NIMASA), Mr Dayo Mobereola, is seeking enhanced cooperation between the agency and the Nigerian Air Force (NAF) with the aim of strengthening tactical air support within the Deep Blue project.

During a courtesy visit last week, Mr Mobereola told the Chief of Air Staff, Air Marshall S. K. Aneke at the NAF Headquarters in Abuja, that the Air Force was a strategic partner in enhancing maritime security in Nigeria and sustaining the momentum of the Deep Blue Project’s success.

According to the DG, “We are here to seek the Air Force’s support, given the importance of tactical air surveillance to the Deep Blue Project. Nigeria is the only African country with a record of zero piracy within the last 4 years. The Deep Blue Project platforms have been used to achieve zero piracy and sea robberies in the Gulf of Guinea, and we need your collaboration to sustain this momentum”.

He further emphasised that international trade depends on security, which is why vessels prefer to go to or transit through countries where they are secured. “With the traffic we have now, we need to show more security might through collaboration to strengthen our trade viability because of the risks attached to our route. We need these collaborations to sustain what we have achieved so far with the Deep Blue Project”.

The NIMASA DG expressed hope that the collaboration with the Nigeria Air Force will reduce response time.

On his part, the Chief of Air Staff, Air Marshall S.K. Aneke, noted that the Air Force desires to be “a very supportive and collaborative partner with NIMASA and is ready to match the Agency step by step and side by side to achieve the desired results.”

He noted that “collaboration between NIMASA and the Nigerian Air Force under the Deep Blue Project can be strengthened through a joint strategic framework, integrated command structures, and a standing steering committee to ensure shared objectives and accountability.

“Establishing a joint maritime domain awareness fusion cell will enable real-time intelligence sharing, synchronised surveillance, and faster response to maritime threats and ensure sustained operational effectiveness across Nigeria’s territorial waters and exclusive economic zone,” he said, according to a statement.

The Air Force Chief added that the Air Force can also support NIMASA outside the Deep Blue Project operations by providing its own ISR platforms, tactical air support, and rapid airborne deployment for interdictions and search and rescue missions.

While thanking the NIMASA DG for the basic trainings the Agency has provided the aircraft pilots under the Deep Blue Project, Air Marshall Aneke also highlighted areas of operational challenges needing NIMASA’s attention to include bridging the communication gap between NAF operators and NIMASA, higher level and in-depth maintenance trainings, readily available fueling of aircrafts to avoid delays on missions, and provision of flying kits among others.

He therefore pledged the Air Force’s collaboration and assured that the request by NIMASA has been noted and that things will begin to move at thrice its speed going forward.

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Nigeria’s Democracy Suffocating Under Tinubu—Atiku

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By Modupe Gbadeyanka

Former Vice President, Mr Atiku Abubakar, has lambasted the administration of President Bola Tinubu for the turnout at the FCT Area Council elections held last Saturday.

In a statement signed by his Media Office, the Adamawa-born politician claimed that the health of Nigeria’s democracy under the current administration was under threat.

According to him, “When citizens lose faith that their votes matter, democracy begins to die. What we are witnessing is not mere voter apathy. It is a direct consequence of an administration that governs with a chokehold on pluralism. Democracy in Nigeria is being suffocated slowly, steadily, and dangerously.”

He warned that the steady erosion of participatory governance, if left unchecked, could inflict irreversible damage on the democratic fabric painstakingly built over decades.

“A democracy without vibrant opposition, without free political competition, and without public confidence is democracy in name only. If this chokehold is not released, history will record this era as the period when our hard-won freedoms were traded for fear and conformity,” he stressed.

Mr Atiku said the turnout for the poll was below 20 per cent, with the Abuja Municipal Area Council (AMAC) recording 7.8 per cent.

He noted that such civic participation in the nation’s capital, the symbolic heartbeat of the federation, is not accidental, as it is the predictable outcome of a political environment poisoned by intolerance, intimidation, and the systematic weakening of opposition voices.

The presidential candidate of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) in the 2023 general elections stated that the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) under Mr Tinubu has pursued a deliberate policy of shrinking democratic space, harassing dissenters, coercing defectors, and fostering a climate where alternative political viewpoints are treated as threats rather than contributions to national development.

He called on opposition parties and democratic forces across the country to urgently close ranks and forge a united front, declaring, “This is no longer about party lines; it is about preserving the Republic. The time to stand together to rescue and rebuild Nigeria is now.”

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Nigeria Eyes Full Entry into Council of Palm Oil Producing Countries

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Palm Oil Producing Countries

By Adedapo Adesanya

Nigeria is set to validate a technical committee report geared towards transitioning the country from observer status to full membership of the Council of Palm Oil Producing Countries (CPOPC) in April.

Mr Abubakar Kyari, Minister of Agriculture and Food Security, said this when the council’s mission visited him over the weekend in Abuja, noting that the ministry had constituted a technical committee to consider how the country would seamlessly transit from observer country to membership in CPOPC based on its strategic importance in palm oil production.

“We are conscious of the fact that the palm oil value chain is very strategic for us and identified it as an export crop that can drive foreign exchange for the country and ensure good health in terms of consumption.

“We are conscious of the fact that we need the support of CPOPC countries to provide the country with a new variety of seeds that are climate-smart and resistant so that they can be produced by farmers in the country,” he said.

Mr Alphonsus Inyang, President, National Palm Produce Association of Nigeria (NPPAN), said being a member of CPOPC Nigeria would target over 10 million tonnes of oil palm between 2026 and 2050.

“We are also targeting 2.5 million hectares from among Nigeria households who are out to produce one hectare each, geared towards a N20 trillion annual economy within this period from among Nigeria households.

“We are working side by side with the big players who will be developing plantations,” he said.

The Secretary-General of CPOPC, Ms Izzana Salleh, said the council’s mission to Nigeria was to see how the country could transit from observer status to full membership, among others

She said that the status of the country as an observer nation since 2024 would expire by November.

Ms Salleh assured the country of the council’s readiness to support its vision to strengthen domestic production, enhance food security and build a competitive and sustainable palm oil supply chain.

The official emphasised that being a member of the council would strategically position Nigeria for a greater future regarding oil palm production.

According to her, the visit is to strengthen the council’s engagement with Nigeria, including potential membership in CPOPC.

She said: “The council’s mission to Nigeria aims to advance both Nigeria’s national ambitions and Africa’s collective voice in global agricultural discussions.

“CPOPC was established to promote cooperation among producing nations, empower smallholders, advance sustainability, and ensure fair, science-based global dialogue on vegetable oils.

She emphasised that being a member of the council would strategically position the country for greater future prospects regarding oil palm production and the value chain, as well as export.

“We are ready to support Nigeria’s vision to strengthen domestic production, enhance food security, and build a competitive and sustainable palm oil supply chain,” she said.

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