By Adedapo Adesanya
Almost two years after Africa identified its first case of COVID-19 (February 14, 2020), the World Health Organization (WHO) has disclosed that, if current trends continue, the continent can control the pandemic in 2022.
It, however, warned that continued vigilance is key.
Over the last two years, WHO said that the continent has witnessed four waves of COVID-19, each with higher peaks or more total new cases than the previous one.
The surges have been mostly driven by new variants of the SARS-CoV-2 virus—which were highly transmissible though not necessarily more fatal than prior waves.
According to WHO, each subsequent wave has triggered a response that has been more effective than the previous, with each surge shorter by 23 per cent on average from the one before.
The global health body noted that the first wave lasted about 29 weeks, the fourth wave was over in six weeks or about a fifth of the time.
According to Dr Matshidiso Moeti, WHO Regional Director for Africa, “Over the past two years, the African continent has gotten smarter, faster and better at responding to each new surge in cases of COVID-19.
“Against the odds, including huge inequities in access to vaccination, we’ve weathered the COVID-19 storm with resilience and determination, informed by Africa’s long history and experience with controlling outbreaks. But COVID-19 has cost us dearly, with more than 242 000 lives lost and tremendous damage to our economies.”
“Although COVID-19 will be with us for the long-term, there is light at the end of the tunnel. This year we can end the disruption and destruction the virus has left in its path, and gain back control over our lives.
“Controlling this pandemic must be a priority, but we understand no two countries have had the same pandemic experience, and each country must, therefore, chart its own way out of this emergency,” added Dr Moeti.
Since the start of the pandemic, the continent’s capacity to manage COVID-19 cases has gradually improved, with the increased availability of trained health workers, oxygen and other medical supplies. The number of Intensive Care Unit (ICU) beds has increased across the continent, from 8 per 1 million people in 2020 to 20 today.
Speaking further, the WHO regional chief said, “Although Africa still lags behind on vaccination, with only 11 per cent of the adult population fully vaccinated, we now have a steady supply of doses flowing in.
“While vaccination is critical, we must not forget testing and surveillance which we know are basic tools for returning our lives to some semblance of normalcy.”
When Africa experienced its first wave, attributed to the spread of the wild SARS-CoV-2 virus, the average case fatality ratio (CFR)—or the proportion of infected people who die from COVID-19—was high (2.5 per cent).
That figure rose to 2.7 per cent during the Beta-driven second wave, before going back down to 2.4 per cent during the Delta-powered third wave. In contrast, the average CFR during the fourth wave is low (0.8 per cent), representing the first time a wave’s surge in cases has not led to a commensurate increase in hospitalizations and deaths.
Aduragbemi Omiyale