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Geopolitical instability and interconnected risks raise fears of Black Swan scenarios
- Around 50% of companies see supply chain paralysis and a global internet outage as the two most plausible Black Swan scenarios in the next five years.
- Geopolitical noise around the globe masks risks from high-impact climate, health, and future technology risks.
- Different risk perceptions between multinational enterprises and small and medium-sized businesses.
Respondents in Asia Pacific also identified a global supply chain paralysis and global internet outrage as the two most plausible Black Swan scenarios; the former is ranked first in China and Hong Kong, Singapore, and South Korea, while the latter is ranked first in Australia, India, Japan, Malaysia, and Thailand.
Allianz Commercial CEO Thomas Lillelund comments: “Although Black Swan events are not seen to be immediately likely, these rare, high-impact scenarios are perceived as increasingly plausible and should be considered by executive boards given their potential consequences. Growing interconnectivity across both physical and digital supply chains means disruptions now cascade much faster and can turn into major losses. In today’s fragmented geopolitical environment, companies must double down on resilience and integrated risk management to ride out the next perfect storm.”
Geopolitics is a key driver for Black Swans
Given the current geopolitical environment, it is no surprise that supply chain paralysis resulting from a geopolitical conflict is regarded as the most plausible Black Swan scenario. The threats of tariffs, trade wars and protectionism, as well as disruption to supply chains and shipping caused by regional conflicts in the Middle East and Russia / Ukraine are at the top of every board agenda. Allianz Research estimates that cumulative GDP losses over a two-year horizon triggered by a global supply chain disruption on the scale of the war in Ukraine could total US$1.5trn. In fact, political-related risks stand out as a leading potential trigger for Black Swan events, according to respondents. Mass social unrest and political instability is regarded as the fourth most plausible scenario globally (29%) and is a top three risk in the Americas (31%) and Africa and the Middle East (41%) regions, as well as in France (42%), for example. A sudden collapse of a major financial institution or a sovereign debt crisis, leading to a global liquidity crisis and severe market volatility ranks third (30%).
Interconnectivity and interdependency of both physical and digital supply chains are potentially increasing vulnerability at a time of geopolitical uncertainty, rapid advances in technology, and climate change. Businesses and global supply chains are also more vulnerable to Black Swan events due to growing concentrations of economic activity reliant on a limited number of critical suppliers and products in areas like AI and digital services, semiconductors, rare earth processors and transition technologies.
Company size influences risk perception
Global supply chain paralysis due to a geopolitical conflict halting the movement of goods and raw materials ranks top for both large (>US$500mn annual revenue, 55% of responses) and mid-sized companies (US$100mn+ to US$500mn, 52%). In contrast, smaller companies (<USS$100mn) are most concerned about the impact of a global internet outage (45%), which is the #2 scenario for larger and mid-sized businesses. The third most plausible Black Swan for mid-sized and smaller companies is the sudden collapse of a major financial institution, while larger companies are more concerned about the risk of simultaneous climate disaster and energy grid failure, such as a heatwave triggering wildfires and widespread blackouts. Multinational enterprises have the advantages of bigger budgets and more diversified portfolios and therefore feel they are better prepared to mitigate the risks of an event such as a major internet outage than their smaller and medium-sized counterparts.
“Awareness of Black Swans and the need to build resilience has increased in recent years, but businesses can never fully prepare for rare high impact events such as a global outage or an unforeseen climate-related catastrophe. Building organizational agility, fostering a risk-aware culture and developing scalable response plans for a range of scenarios remain the most practical steps to best prepare for Black Swan events. Insurers can play a critical role in helping businesses strengthen their resilience in areas such as cyber risk and support more informed decisions when assessing and selecting critical suppliers,” says Michael Bruch, Global Head of Risk Consulting Advisory Services, Allianz Commercial.
Hashtag: #AllianzCommercial
https://commercial.allianz.com/
financial strength, and network of the world’s #1 insurance brand, we work together to help our customers prepare for what’s ahead: They trust us in providing a wide range of traditional and alternative risk transfer solutions, outstanding risk consulting and Multinational services as well as seamless claims handling. Allianz Commercial brings together the large corporate insurance business of Allianz Global Corporate & Specialty (AGCS) and the commercial insurance business of national Allianz Property & Casualty entities serving mid-sized companies. We are present in over 200 countries and territories either through our own teams or the Allianz Group network and partners. In 2024, the integrated business of Allianz Commercial generated around €18 billion in gross premium globally. https://commercial.allianz.com/
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Global Governance Report Highlights Future Shock Risks as Democratic Accountability Slips and State Capacity Plateaus
The BGI, presented Wednesday by an international group of governance scholars, analyses measurable benchmarks of democratic accountability across 145 countries.
On a 100-point scale, the global score for democratic accountability slipped slightly from 65 in 2000 to 64 in 2023, the most recent data used in the project. The wave of democratisation observed in the closing decades of the last century has stalled in the last 15 years. Democratic accountability fell in 54 countries while it improved in 48 countries.
Yet the BGI — a collaborative project of the Luskin School of Public Affairs at the University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA), Berlin’s Hertie School and the Berggruen Institute, a think tank headquartered in Los Angeles — captures remarkably widespread growth in provision of public goods.
Encompassing healthcare, education, infrastructure, environmental sustainability and conditions to foster employment and rising prosperity, public goods improved in 135 of the countries studied, while declining slightly in just four. The global average jumped from 58 to 69 points from 2000 to 2023.
The third component of what the BGI authors refer to as the “governance triangle” is state capacity, defined as the ability to tax, borrow and spend, control territory, operate scrupulous, competent bureaucracies and administer predictable rule of law. The index finds the global average ticking up from 48 to 49 points; 56 countries had increased state capacity while 57 declined.
“What does it tell us about the world ahead?” Prof. Helmut K. Anheier, a Luskin School sociologist and BGI principal investigator, asked during the public release of the 2026 BGI on the UCLA campus.
“Countries are not really improving in their governance performance in significant ways. … We’re not really having forward-looking investment in governance capacity. There is considerable inertia.”
The largest improvements across all three BGI components occurred in Gambia, which the report groups with “low-capacity developing states.” These states score low across the board, particularly in the provision of public goods. This cluster constitutes the poorest countries with the least developed economies, which face the most serious challenges.
“They have the greatest exposure to likely future crises, whether it’s global warming, whether it’s a new pandemic, whether it’s another financial crisis, whether it’s the impact of AI,” Anheier said. “And they have the least capacity to respond to it.”
Bhutan, Georgia, Iraq and Tunisia — which make up the remaining top five countries with the largest improvements in the BGI — are classified as “capacity-constrained states.” They tend to be middle-income with struggling democracies. These countries score higher across the board than the low-capacity developing states, but their state capacity tends to lag compared to public goods and democratic accountability.
The capacity-constrained states risk falling into “a cycle that erodes the institutions they have built,” Anheier said.
“Consolidated democratic states”, a cluster of most of the world’s richest countries, which score highly in all three BGI components, have to confront domestic complacency. Further, in the United States and some others, “political dysfunction” is leaving mounting problems unaddressed and risking erosion of state capacity, Anheier said.
At the other end of the spectrum, the country with the farthest fall on the BGI since 2000 is Nicaragua. Second from last is Venezuela, followed by Hong Kong, Hungary and Turkey. The rest of the bottom 10 are Russia, Iran, Poland, El Salvador and Belarus.
Since 2023, which is the last year of data available for the study, Poland and Hungary have both seen government changes via election, despite serious democratic backsliding. Both had fallen out of the group of “consolidated democratic states” by 2023 and moved into the capacity constrained cluster.
The other eight countries at the bottom of the list are all places that once had some semblance of competitive elections, but by now have little or no remaining pretense of democracy. They are grouped by the authors among the “authoritarian and hybrid states”, which have by far the lowest democratic accountability but outperform even some struggling democracies in delivering public goods.
These regimes have tended toward faster economic growth in the period observed. But that seeming prosperity, typically fueled by extractive industries or overreliance on exports, masks “serious institutional weaknesses in these countries, including divided elites,” Anheier said.
Relatively few countries — 21 of the 145 — changed enough for better or worse to be classified in a new group by the end of the 23-year study period.
“Movement between them is rare, but this is largely what we should expect,” said Stella Ghervas, a UCLA historian on a panel of experts who discussed the BGI findings Wednesday. “Government systems are not created in a moment. They evolve over long periods of time.”
Local conditions shaping governance in each country can rarely be quickly reset through political will or even external shocks, Joseph C. Saraceno, a Luskin School data scientist and BGI co-author, said Wednesday.
“Despite all the talk of major transformations happening in global affairs, the underlying configuration of governance simply doesn’t appear to change very much,” Saraceno said. “We use the term inertia to describe this reoccurring pattern. In other words, the structures of global governance are resistant to movement as the conditions beneath them are quite sticky: political economies, demographics, resource endowments. These are deeply layered, and they push each country toward the world that it already inhabits.”
But the challenges lurking around the world may not wait for the slow and difficult processes of political change and development to catch up.
“With the few exceptions of those countries in the consolidated democratic world,” Anheier said, “the great majority of the countries in the world is ill-prepared for the future.”
The full report, ‘ 2026 Berggruen Governance Index – The Four Worlds of Governance‘, can be viewed and downloaded from the website of the UCLA’s Luskin School.
Frank Fuhrig, DNA
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Grobrix Launches “Silver Harvest Initiative”, Turning Schools into Micro-Farms Powered by Students and Retirees
The pilot transforms existing spaces such as corridors and rooftops into small-scale growing sites using compact, soil-less farming systems. By using existing infrastructure instead of new farmland or large facilities, the model enables food production across multiple community locations, making it easier to implement in schools and shared environments.
Students take part in planting, transplanting and harvesting as part of their daily school environment, while crops such as leafy greens can be harvested in cycles of approximately three weeks. This demonstrates how consistent production can be achieved even within limited spaces.
Retirees, known as “Silver Farmers”, manage the farms and oversee daily operations. Students support planting, harvesting and basic monitoring, creating a working environment where food production becomes part of everyday school life. The setup also gives students direct exposure to how food is grown and managed, turning the school into a hands-on learning environment aligned with sustainability and applied learning goals.
“Singapore does not have the luxury of large farming spaces. But we have schools, and we have retirees who want to contribute. This pilot shows that food production can be practical and repeatable by using spaces we already have,” said Mathew Howe, Founder of Grobrix.
The initiative comes amid growing adoption of micro-farming across Singapore, with schools, companies and community spaces increasingly integrating small-scale food production into existing environments. Demand for such systems has risen in recent months, reflecting broader interest in community-based approaches to food resilience.
The Bukit View Primary School pilot will run over 12 months, focusing on improving yields and integrating produce into school consumption. Grobrix will track how much of the school’s leafy green needs can be met through these growing spaces, with the aim of developing a model that can be adopted across other schools.
Grobrix has installed more than 100 edible growing systems across Singapore and is expanding its footprint regionally and internationally. The company plans to scale the Silver Harvest Initiative to more schools while training additional retiree participants, building a network of community-based growing sites over time.
As Singapore continues to strengthen its food security strategy, including updated targets to increase local production of vegetables and protein by 2035, the initiative offers a practical example of how food production can be integrated into everyday environments beyond traditional farming spaces. It also aims to build greater awareness of food sources and encourage more active participation in local food systems.
Hashtag: #Grobrix #growingtogether #sustainability #urbanfarming
https://grobrix.com/
Grobrix is a Singapore based agritech company that integrates farming into the built environment through its patented “Farming as a Service” model. By combining modular vertical farming technology with a cloud based management system, the company enables corporate and residential spaces to produce high quality local crops. Beyond hardware, Grobrix fosters community engagement and food resilience through its unique intergenerational and corporate wellness programs. Currently operating across Singapore, Malaysia, and the United States, the brand is redefining how urban populations interact with their food sources. Its mission is to transform urban infrastructure into a productive, sentient, and sustainable ecosystem for all.
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CUHK Claims Top Positions in Hong Kong and Asia in the Latest QS World University Rankings by Subject
CUHK’s Academic Excellence and Global Research Impact
Ranked among the world’s top 50 universities, CUHK ascended to 32nd place globally in the QS World University Rankings 2026, marking a four-place rise that reinforces its role as a hub for rigorous inquiry, and a dynamic environment where students are empowered to pursue meaningful research and knowledge exchange. This trajectory is supported by 17 CUHK researchers recognised on the Highly Cited Researchers 2025 list by Clarivate Analytics, and 431 academics listed among the world’s top 2% scientists by Stanford University. Among them, 47 scholars were ranked within the global top 100 in their respective fields. Notably, three scholars, including Vice-Chancellor and President Professor Dennis Lo Yuk-ming, have earned positions within the global top 10, a distinction that highlights the remarkable depth and excellence of CUHK’s research community.
CUHK’s The Nethersole School of Nursing: Nurturing Research Innovation and Global Talent in Nursing
Among CUHK’s strongest performers in this year’s rankings, the Nethersole School of Nursing has been ranked #1 in Hong Kong and Asia, and #6 worldwide. Reflecting on the academic environment, Pham Nhat Vi DO, a Vietnamese PhD student in Nursing, shared: “My PhD journey at CUHK has transformed my research abilities, critical thinking, and leadership skills. Through CUHK’s outstanding faculty support, I have accessed diverse academic resources and gained invaluable hands-on experience, building a strong foundation for my future career.”
Vi’s research focuses on colorectal cancer survivorship using cutting-edge technology. As the first Vietnamese researcher adopting this approach, her work reflects CUHK’s strength in empowering students to break new ground.
CUHK’s Geography and Resource Management: Advancing Student Research on Pressing Climate Challenges
CUHK’s Department of Geography and Resource Management has also earned notable recognition in this year’s ranking, placing #4 in Asia and #21 worldwide. Arati POUDEL, a Nepali PhD student, highlighted the University’s research ecosystem as a key defining aspect of her experience. “CUHK exceeds expectations through outstanding research facilities, supportive faculty, and comprehensive professional development opportunities. The prestigious Belt and Road Scholarship has also enriched my research journey in this beautiful campus environment.”
Supported by CUHK, Arati’s research investigates how adaptation to climate extremes—particularly water scarcity and excess—are being addressed, and the pivotal role played by communities and civil society in leading these responses.
Through the QS World University Rankings by Subject 2026, CUHK continues to demonstrate the impact of its research and scholarship. These achievements underscore the University’s growing influence on the global academic stage and its steadfast commitment to addressing complex global challenges through innovation, insight, and collaboration.
Hashtag: #CUHK
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About CUHK
The Chinese University of Hong Kong (CUHK) is a leading higher education institution dedicated to nurturing and empowering students to become responsible and compassionate global citizens. With a rich heritage and a forward-looking vision, CUHK strives to blend tradition with innovation, fostering academic excellence, research breakthroughs, and meaningful societal impact.
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