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Geopolitical instability and interconnected risks raise fears of Black Swan scenarios
- Around 50% of companies see supply chain paralysis and a global internet outage as the two most plausible Black Swan scenarios in the next five years.
- Geopolitical noise around the globe masks risks from high-impact climate, health, and future technology risks.
- Different risk perceptions between multinational enterprises and small and medium-sized businesses.
Respondents in Asia Pacific also identified a global supply chain paralysis and global internet outrage as the two most plausible Black Swan scenarios; the former is ranked first in China and Hong Kong, Singapore, and South Korea, while the latter is ranked first in Australia, India, Japan, Malaysia, and Thailand.
Allianz Commercial CEO Thomas Lillelund comments: “Although Black Swan events are not seen to be immediately likely, these rare, high-impact scenarios are perceived as increasingly plausible and should be considered by executive boards given their potential consequences. Growing interconnectivity across both physical and digital supply chains means disruptions now cascade much faster and can turn into major losses. In today’s fragmented geopolitical environment, companies must double down on resilience and integrated risk management to ride out the next perfect storm.”
Geopolitics is a key driver for Black Swans
Given the current geopolitical environment, it is no surprise that supply chain paralysis resulting from a geopolitical conflict is regarded as the most plausible Black Swan scenario. The threats of tariffs, trade wars and protectionism, as well as disruption to supply chains and shipping caused by regional conflicts in the Middle East and Russia / Ukraine are at the top of every board agenda. Allianz Research estimates that cumulative GDP losses over a two-year horizon triggered by a global supply chain disruption on the scale of the war in Ukraine could total US$1.5trn. In fact, political-related risks stand out as a leading potential trigger for Black Swan events, according to respondents. Mass social unrest and political instability is regarded as the fourth most plausible scenario globally (29%) and is a top three risk in the Americas (31%) and Africa and the Middle East (41%) regions, as well as in France (42%), for example. A sudden collapse of a major financial institution or a sovereign debt crisis, leading to a global liquidity crisis and severe market volatility ranks third (30%).
Interconnectivity and interdependency of both physical and digital supply chains are potentially increasing vulnerability at a time of geopolitical uncertainty, rapid advances in technology, and climate change. Businesses and global supply chains are also more vulnerable to Black Swan events due to growing concentrations of economic activity reliant on a limited number of critical suppliers and products in areas like AI and digital services, semiconductors, rare earth processors and transition technologies.
Company size influences risk perception
Global supply chain paralysis due to a geopolitical conflict halting the movement of goods and raw materials ranks top for both large (>US$500mn annual revenue, 55% of responses) and mid-sized companies (US$100mn+ to US$500mn, 52%). In contrast, smaller companies (<USS$100mn) are most concerned about the impact of a global internet outage (45%), which is the #2 scenario for larger and mid-sized businesses. The third most plausible Black Swan for mid-sized and smaller companies is the sudden collapse of a major financial institution, while larger companies are more concerned about the risk of simultaneous climate disaster and energy grid failure, such as a heatwave triggering wildfires and widespread blackouts. Multinational enterprises have the advantages of bigger budgets and more diversified portfolios and therefore feel they are better prepared to mitigate the risks of an event such as a major internet outage than their smaller and medium-sized counterparts.
“Awareness of Black Swans and the need to build resilience has increased in recent years, but businesses can never fully prepare for rare high impact events such as a global outage or an unforeseen climate-related catastrophe. Building organizational agility, fostering a risk-aware culture and developing scalable response plans for a range of scenarios remain the most practical steps to best prepare for Black Swan events. Insurers can play a critical role in helping businesses strengthen their resilience in areas such as cyber risk and support more informed decisions when assessing and selecting critical suppliers,” says Michael Bruch, Global Head of Risk Consulting Advisory Services, Allianz Commercial.
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financial strength, and network of the world’s #1 insurance brand, we work together to help our customers prepare for what’s ahead: They trust us in providing a wide range of traditional and alternative risk transfer solutions, outstanding risk consulting and Multinational services as well as seamless claims handling. Allianz Commercial brings together the large corporate insurance business of Allianz Global Corporate & Specialty (AGCS) and the commercial insurance business of national Allianz Property & Casualty entities serving mid-sized companies. We are present in over 200 countries and territories either through our own teams or the Allianz Group network and partners. In 2024, the integrated business of Allianz Commercial generated around €18 billion in gross premium globally. https://commercial.allianz.com/
Asia’s first Design & Innovation Festival announces its venue and key speakers — where Japanese design expertise meets the cultural diversity of Asia
| Name | SYNC Design & Innovation in SITE 2026 |
| Date | Friday, June 26, 2026 |
| Venue | Paragon Hall, 5th Floor, Siam Paragon, Bangkok, Thailand |
| Admission | Free (advance registration required) |
| Languages | Thai / English / Japanese |
| Website | https://syncforum.asia |
| Organizer | Nikkei Business Publications, Inc. |
| Production & Co-organizers | FOURDIGIT Inc., National Innovation Agency (NIA), Thailand |
| Supported by | Creative Economy Agency (CEA) |
| Production partners | Y’s Connection Inc., J-WAVE, Inc., iDID |
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Code4Mzansi highlights the growing strength of South Africa’s developer ecosystem and the role of youth-led innovation in shaping the country’s digital future
JOHANNESBURG, SOUTH AFRICA – Media OutReach Newswire – 26 May 2026 – South Africa’s emerging developers are building close to the ground, with many of the strongest solutions at the inaugural Huawei Code4Mzansi finals focused on systems people use every day: township retail, healthcare, energy, agriculture, payments and the creative economy.
The competition was held in partnership with the Department of Small Business Development. “The Code4Mzansi competition is not just a celebration of achievement, it is a launchpad for the future,” said Minister Stella Ndabeni, whose department co-hosted the event and delivered the closing address.
The finals revealed a clear shift from building abstract digital products to practical tools that help small businesses trade better, communities access services more easily, and local industries solve problems faster.
Four finalist teams focused directly on the township economy, with solutions covering food safety verification for spaza shops, offline point-of-sale systems built for load-shedding, WhatsApp-native marketplaces for informal retailers, and community credit systems for SASSA grant recipients.
Others addressed AI-driven healthcare access, electricity theft detection, smart agriculture, financial infrastructure for the creator economy, and AI-generated African music.
Held at Huawei Office Park in Woodmead, the finals brought together more than 100 attendees, including government representatives, academic partners, industry leaders and media.
“The quality of the finalist solutions demonstrated the potential of local innovation to respond to real market needs,” said Steven Chen, Cloud CEO of Huawei Technologies South Africa.
Academic partners included the University of Pretoria, the University of Johannesburg, the University of the Witwatersrand and the University of Cape Town.
“Small businesses are the backbone of our economy, and technology is their greatest accelerator. The participants here today are future entrepreneurs who will drive South Africa’s digital economy forward,” said Professor Thokozani Shongwe, Vice Dean of Postgraduate Studies, Research and Internationalisation at the University of Johannesburg’s Faculty of Engineering and the Built Environment.
Industry partner rain also attended. Leon Nortje, Principal and Senior Architect at rain, said the competition offered a strong view of the country’s emerging technology pipeline.
“It is always good to see new projects and new teams working on solutions that are valuable and industry-related. We will be looking out for potential new employees,” said Nortje.
The winners
The finalists competed for a prize pool of R800,000. MAAT by SIMVAK was named the overall grand winner and received the Business Value Award, taking home R300,000. The platform addresses food safety and regulatory compliance in South Africa’s informal retail sector through AI agents, real-time product recall alerts, and counterfeit detection for the spaza shop ecosystem.
“The spaza network is the supply chain for most South African households,” said SIMVAK founder Shingirayi Mandebvu.
HealthHive by FTCK received second prize in the Business Value Award category, taking home R200,000, for its AI telemedicine platform that matches patients with the right medical practitioners based on their symptoms.
Auraa received the Grand Innovation Award for its AI music engine built to generate authentic African sound. The platform has been associated with an album that has crossed one million streams.
The Future Star Award went to e-Khadi, a community credit and stokvel platform giving SASSA grant recipients access to essentials at their local spaza shops, supported by AI-assisted credit scoring and fraud detection.
The People’s Choice Award, voted by the public on Huawei’s social media channels, went to DevRift, a semi-finalist in the competition, who took home R100,000.
Minister Ndabeni delivered the closing address, positioning Code4Mzansi within the government’s agenda for youth entrepreneurship, small business development and digital inclusion.
“Our task is to ensure that innovation does not remain a moment of applause, but becomes a pathway to enterprise creation, digital inclusion, and sustainable growth,” she said.
“Thank you to Huawei for being a perfect partner on the journey that we are travelling, and of course, those that matter most, the developers who dared to compete,” she said.
Code4Mzansi forms part of the global Huawei Cloud Developer Competition. In its inaugural edition, South Africa attracted more participants than any other country: 1,041 across 353 teams, including 176 enterprise teams, resulting in the highest enterprise participation rate among all competing markets. Twenty semi-finalists were selected before the top nine advanced to the final.
For the finalists, the work is just beginning. As Minister Ndabeni said, “Go home today proud. But tomorrow, wake up, build again.”
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About Huawei
Founded in 1987, Huawei is a leading global provider of information and communications technology (ICT) infrastructure and smart devices. With 213,000 employees operating in over 170 countries, we serve more than three billion people worldwide.
Huawei is committed to bringing digital to every person, home, and organisation for a fully connected, intelligent world. In 2025, Huawei generated CNY880.9 billion in revenue, reinvesting 21.8% (CNY192.3 billion) into R&D, with about 53.7% of its employees working in R&D. As a private company fully owned by its employees, Huawei focuses on customer-centric innovation and open collaboration to create lasting value and drive technological breakthroughs globally.
For more information, please visit Huawei online at www.huawei.com or follow us on:
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Congratulating Dr Lai on her achievement, John Lee, Chief Executive of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (HKSAR), said that the HKSAR can “transform from a ‘supporter’ of the country’s great aerospace endeavours into an ‘executor’ “.
“This not only demonstrates the HKSAR’s capability in contributing to the country’s development into an aerospace power, but also showcases how Hong Kong could better integrate into and serve the overall national development,” Mr Lee said.
“This mission is of great significance, as it is not only the first manned spaceflight mission during the 15th Five-Year Plan period, but also the first time for a payload expert from the HKSAR to participate in it.”
The Shenzhou-23 crew will conduct on-orbit rotation with the Shenzhou-21 crew. The crew, including Dr Lai, will stay in the space station and conduct multiple experiments and applications in various fields such as scientific applications.
The Secretary for Innovation, Technology and Industry of the HKSAR Government, Professor Sun Dong, led a delegation to the Jiuquan Satellite Launch Center to witness this historic moment. Members of the delegation included other government representatives, I&T experts, youths and students.
“I truly believe this is a great demonstration of Hong Kong integrating into and serving the overall national development through concrete actions, while contributing our strength in I&T,” Professor Sun said.
” ‘Science and technology is primary productive force, talent is primary resource, and innovation is primary driver of growth.’ The HKSAR Government will continue to drive the development of I&T, accelerate the establishment of an international I&T centre, and make greater contributions to building our nation into a strong power in science, technology, and aerospace.”
Commissioner for Innovation and Technology of the HKSAR Government, Mr Ivan Lee, said that the Government had been providing funding support for universities and research institutions in conducting aerospace technology-related projects through the Innovation and Technology Fund.
“In 2024, we launched a special call for funding applications, inviting universities to submit project proposals related to aerospace technology. Following a selection process, we supported six projects. Among them was the Multi‑Spectral Imaging Carbon Observatory (MUSICO) developed by a team from the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology,” he said.
On the Tiangong Space Station, Dr Lai will conduct experiments including operating the MUSICO — the world’s first lightweight, high-resolution synergistic observatory for carbon dioxide and methane emission point sources.
Born and raised in Hong Kong, Dr Lai is a Superintendent of the Hong Kong Police Force. In the recruitment exercise of China’s fourth batch of preparatory astronauts launched in 2022, she was successfully selected as a payload expert and was deployed to the China Astronaut Research and Training Center for training.
Before embarking on the historic spaceflight, Dr Lai expressed hope that it would inspire more Hong Kong youths to devote themselves to the field of I&T, thereby contributing to the country’s scientific and technological self-reliance and strength.
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