As 2024 comes to a gradual end and companies begin to make plans for the new year, the Nigerian sports betting industry is faced with a new year’s resolution which it didn’t make but has been imposed on it by this political administration- the dilemma of withholding tax regulations.

The introduction of this new tax regime could fundamentally alter the sports betting landscape, affecting everything from operator profits to punter behaviour and industry growth.

Once the new regulations come into effect on January 1, 2025, eligible transactions for winnings in i-gaming shall incur applicable rates of 5% for residents and 15% for non-residents.

For Managing Partner, WYS Solicitors & Legal Counsel Africa, Olafadeke Akeju, the fact that i-gaming is largely online means this new tax regime may cause of exodus of customers from licensed operators to illegal remote operators, due to the uncaptured and unprotected nature of the digital space:

“For those who are unlicensed and foreign operators, they will still be able to owe tax to players and offer better odds and better returns because there is no deduction or withholding tax. What this means is that licensed operators will lose customers to the illegal and remote operators, that is the likely implication, as there could be a significant drop in patronage once this withholding tax kicks off.”

Akeju also struggles to understand how this tax would apply to walk-in customers who mostly require age verification but may not require identity verification- especially because this regulation exempts over-the-counter transactions.

Velex Advisory Tax Expert, Jonathan Nwanze is also keen to see how this tax regime would be implemented, but he is more worried about the likelihood that the Tinubu administration, “could be creating a monster asking for remittance without the capacity to check it.”

Nwanze explains that the introduction of withholding tax is not novel, as it occurs in other countries in West Africa like Ghana. However, what makes Nigeria’s exceptional is the timing, investment and the market size:

“It’s not the first time it’s been introduced. However, some of the aforementioned markets cannot be compared to the Nigerian market in terms of size, Nigeria is way bigger. Some are more regulated because of the kind of structure they have. For instance, in Ghana, there are regions, not states and there is one revenue collection body. In Nigeria, we have states, but numerous bodies at various levels of government collect revenue.  I think the government has to invest in a lot of technology. If they are looking at getting a lot out of gaming, there must be investment in infrastructure,” Nwanze told sports and betting news site, SportsBoom.com.

What’s the rush?

Nigeria’s economy has been on a steady decline due to a number of factors including the poor timing of policies. For the implementation of withholding tax, it’s equally symptomatic of poor timing, grey areas and an inherent lack of understanding about the i-gaming ecosystem.

Akeju explains that in order for betting operators to comply with the provisions of the new tax regime, there must be upgrades across the betting platforms and since the software/ platform providers aren’t local, the operators need to get in line for an estimated 6 to 9 months before their platforms are upgraded.

She thinks it’s highly likely that: “we could potentially have a situation whereby on the 1st of January 2025, operators won’t be able to comply due to circumstances beyond their control.”

Apart from playing the waiting game, the cost of upgrading betting platforms equally poses a huge financial burden. Akeju explains that while larger betting operators own their betting platforms, the same cannot be said for smaller operators:

“The platforms which smaller operators use for gaming are owned by third parties with whom they have white label agreements. Hence, implementing the withholding tax right now is going to be a challenge for those operators as it would require them to pay for developers, pay for customization and pay for integration of the platforms to suit the regulation in question.”

An eternal optimist may ask, What about alternative revenue streams? Is there any that betting companies could explore to offset the impact of these new taxes? Akeju makes it clear that the operators are caught between a rock and a hard place- that’s because offering a new product translates to applying for another license for the product in question.

Sadly, the alternative products’ providers are primarily based in Europe, which means more cost would be incurred by the operator in Euros.

Akeju is very concerned about how the smaller operators will keep their customers and while she may not have a universal solution for the Nigerian i-gaming industry as a whole, she may have a potential solution for  bigger operators, but that entails their willingness to assume a sacrificial role by choosing to “absorb this withholding tax on behalf of their players or offer certain bonuses and promotions that could boost winnings so that players do not really feel the effect.”

A misconception & an opportunity

On Friday, November 22, 2024, the Supreme Court nullified the National Lottery Act and scrapped the National Lottery Regulatory Commission (NLRC). During a crucial meeting held days before the judgment, the Director General of the now defunct NLRC, Lanre Gbajabiamila,  made a profound statement about the assumption that the i-gaming industry is a billion-dollar industry:

“How do we know it’s a billion-naira industry? There’s no data to show. Anybody can say it’s worth billions of naira, but until we have proper data, we can’t safely say what the industry is worth.”

Just like Gbajabiamila, this is a perception which Nwanze seeks to correct, and he thinks it may have a lot more to do with this new regulation than we realize:

“The government appears to be keen on generating revenue, but the challenge lies with the timeline – Jan 2025 is not feasible. If you look at best practices as is the case in the UK- there is no collection of withholding tax and that’s because the responsibility of taxes should sit with the company that owns the business. The reason is that the companies make more profit than the players. If you look at the number of losses compared to winnings, you’ll be shocked at how high the former is compared to the latter. In fact, the way the business is structured, it’s from those losses that winnings are paid. I think the government should review its position and opt for more engagement regarding the nature, implementation, application and configuration of this plan.”

Now that the NLRC has been dissolved, there might be an opportunity for states that may choose to opt out of this tax and while the implementation has yet to play out, Nwanze thinks that some states may see exemption as an opportunity to attract more betting companies to their states.

Legal options & absence of meaningful stakeholder engagement

With all the negative hits that the Nigerian i-gaming industry has taken in 2024, is it simply at the mercy of the government policies/ regulations, or could legal options be explored to push back? Akeju explains that “the law is made for man and not vice versa.”

While she is hopeful that the government will do a 180 when it sees the negative impact this tax will have, as was the case in the most regulated market in the world- the UK; she is fearful of Nigeria’s reputation and pace when it comes to repealing laws and regulations.

Akeju recalls attempts made by stakeholders to dialogue with the government on this matter and narrates a scenario which is reminiscent of intentional exclusion until a decision was made:

“The association of Nigerian bookmakers engaged with the presidential committee on fiscal policies and tax reforms. We had a few meetings, but it appeared as though by the time the industry was aware of many of the decisions that were taken by the government, it was at an advanced stage. Now that it has been passed, efforts are still being made for a guidance note to clarify some of the grey areas.”

Akeju and Nwanze make their final appeal by asking the government to focus its taxation efforts on the operators and not the players to make for a more streamlined and better-defined application that is understood by all involved.

Conclusion

As Nigeria’s sports betting industry braces for the 2025 withholding tax storm, both legal and tax experts sound a unified alarm: taxing players instead of operators could backfire spectacularly.

With Akeju warning of an exodus to illegal operators and Nwanze questioning the government’s monitoring capacity, the consensus is clear – this rushed regulation could transform Nigeria’s gaming landscape into a wild west of unregulated betting.

The irony? In pursuing additional revenue, the government might end up with a smaller piece of an increasingly fragmented pie. As the countdown to January 2025 begins, the industry’s message is simple: hit pause, rethink the approach, and focus on operators, not players.