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Investment Key to Future Growth for Global, African Aviation

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Paul Calvey Oliver Wyman Partner

The aviation sector’s recovery from COVID-19 has been remarkable, with revenue passenger kilometres (RPKs) and available seat kilometres (ASKs) reaching close to pre-pandemic levels, according to the International Air Transport Association (IATA). In the fourth quarter of 2023, traffic was at 98.2% of pre-pandemic numbers. Additionally, the sector is expected to experience record fleet and maintenance, repair, and overhaul (MRO) growth this year.

Oliver Wyman’s latest Global Fleet and MRO Market Forecast predicts that the number of commercial aircraft worldwide will expand at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 2.5%, reaching more than 36,400 aircraft by the start of 2034. This represents a 28% increase over the current fleet of around 28,400 aircraft. The forecast also indicates that global MRO spending is expected to reach US$104 billion, surpassing the pre-pandemic peak in 2020. That spending will still, however, fall short of demand. By 2034, MRO demand worldwide is projected to reach US$124 billion.

In Africa, the fleet is expected to grow about 25% by 2034, reaching over 1,400 aircraft. The largest growth is projected to occur between 2029 and 2034, with a CAGR of 2.7%. For example, South African Airways has announced plans to expand its fleet to approximately 40 aircraft over the next decade, from just 13 today.

“The growth in Africa reflects an expected expansion of demand. Figures from IATA show that African passenger numbers will nearly double by 2035. This will require airlines to continue to invest in expanding their fleet, as well as looking at new routes to add to their network,” says Paul Calvey, Oliver Wyman Partner and Head of its operations in South Africa.

But while the global and African numbers reflect growth, they fall short of pre-pandemic predictions. Before the pandemic, it was anticipated that the global aircraft fleet would reach 36,000 by 2030. Now, it is unlikely to reach that size before 2036, resulting in a six-year setback in industry growth due to COVID-19. From an African perspective, this slow recovery is particularly understandable. Several African airlines folded as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, and in 2020 alone, the continent’s aviation sector lost US$7.7 billion in revenue.

This highlights the magnitude of the setback caused by COVID-19. Additionally, the current global fleet size isn’t significantly higher than the 27,492 aircraft that were in service in 2019. To regain its previous trajectory, the aviation sector will require significant investment, much of which will depend on global economic growth.

Investment challenges in the aviation industry 

The forecast identifies several challenges that hinder investment in the aviation sector. These include the impact of COVID-19, inflation, and shortages of skilled labour, raw materials, and aviation maintenance technicians (AMTs) and engineers. The industry must modernise and optimise production along the supply chain, while the MRO support network faces similar challenges in keeping aircraft operational.

“While the industry must invest in overcoming those challenges, it’s important to remember that it’s not easy for it to do so at present, according to a number of trends,” says André Martins, Partner and Head of Transportation and Services for India, Middle East, and Africa regions (IMEA) at Oliver Wyman.

He continues that “rapidly rising interest rates have made borrowing far more expensive than it was pre-pandemic. Mounting inflation, meanwhile, has created significant wage pressure across the industry. In the US, for instance, captains’ salaries at mainline airlines increased by 46% between 2020 and 2023, while those flying for US regional airlines saw their wages rise by 86%. Furthermore, this inflationary environment has led to higher costs for aircraft components and other supplies compared to before the pandemic.”

Other cost factors, such as escalating conflicts in the Middle East and attacks on ships in the Red Sea, have led to increased aviation fuel prices. Although prices are lower than in 2022, industry players remain cautious about potential further increases.

Gearing up for global growth 

Despite the current challenges, there are indications that conditions may improve, facilitating investment in the aviation sector. While global economic growth is currently at its lowest level since the 1990s, the outlook is becoming more positive. Inflation is expected to ease, and the US economy is projected to experience a soft landing. Although major economies like China still face economic headwinds, the global economy is likely to avoid recession.

This positive outlook will eventually enable central banks to reduce interest rates, making borrowing cheaper and enabling crucial investments in the aviation sector.

“Investment is necessary not only to address labour and supply chain optimisation challenges but also to meet the increasing pressure for environmental sustainability. This includes investing in sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), which can significantly reduce emissions,” Martins says.

Maximising available opportunities

By maximising the available opportunities in Africa, such as collaboration on infrastructure development and investment in African airlines, the industry can not only recover but thrive in the coming years. Investors and policymakers also have a role to play in supporting sustainable growth through policies that incentivize investment in new technologies and skilled labour.

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FG to Introduce Biometric Single Travel Emergency Passport 2026

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Biometric Single Travel Emergency Passport

By Adedapo Adesanya

The federal government has announced plans to introduce the new biometric emergency travel document, the Single Travel Emergency Passport (STEP), by 2026 as part of reforms aimed at modernising Nigeria’s immigration processes and strengthening border security.

Initially revealed in November, the Comptroller General of the Nigeria Immigration Service (NIS), Mrs Kemi Nandap, speaking on Monday in Abuja during the decoration of 46 newly promoted Assistant Comptrollers of Immigration (ACIs) to the rank of Comptrollers of Immigration, said the proposed STEP would replace the current Single Travel Emergency Certificate (STEC) and is designed to enhance efficiency, security, and global acceptability of Nigeria’s emergency travel documentation.

She explained that the new emergency passport would be biometric-based and deployed through alternative, technology-driven platforms to ensure seamless service delivery.

“I’m looking forward to embracing 2026, which will also be part of all the reforms we’re doing to ensure that we optimise our services, in terms of visas, passport production lines and our contactless solutions,” she said.

The NIS boss noted that the STEP is one of several technology-driven innovations being rolled out by the Service to improve operational efficiency and meet its constitutional mandate.

She also highlighted the recent introduction of the ECOWAS National Biometric Identity Card (ENBIC), describing it as a critical step towards seamless regional integration and secure cross-border movement within West Africa.

“We want to ensure that our processes are seamless. The STEP, which we are going to launch early next year, is another key programme that will further strengthen our service delivery,” Nandap added.

The Comptroller General charged the newly decorated officers to demonstrate heightened vigilance, professionalism, and integrity, particularly in light of Nigeria’s prevailing security challenges.

“Your decoration today symbolises the trust reposed in you and carries with it expectations of enhanced leadership, sound judgement, accountability and exemplary conduct,” she said.

Mrs Nandap stressed that officers at senior levels must combine professional competence with strong leadership qualities, including clarity of vision, decisiveness, empathy, and the ability to mentor and inspire subordinates.

“Considering the current security challenges our nation faces, we must remain vigilant and unrelenting in the fight against multifaceted threats. Your actions will set the tone and reflect the core values and reputation of this Service,” she warned.

She reaffirmed the Service’s zero tolerance for indolence and unprofessional conduct, urging officers to embrace innovation, adapt to emerging challenges, and place the interest of the NIS above personal considerations.

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Moving to France After Retirement: What You Need to Know First

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retirement visa france

The idea of spending retirement in France comes up often — sometimes because of the climate, sometimes because of the healthcare system, and sometimes simply because of the way everyday life is organised there. But once the initial appeal fades, a practical question usually follows: under what conditions can a retiree actually live in France legally?

The short answer is: it’s possible.
The longer answer requires a closer look.

No “retirement visa,” but a workable solution

Unlike some countries, France does not offer a dedicated retirement visa. This often comes as a surprise. In practice, however, most retired foreigners settle in France under the long-stay visitor visa — a residence status that is not tied to age or professional background.

The logic behind it is straightforward: France allows people to live in the country if they do not intend to work and can support themselves financially. For this reason, the visitor visa is used not only by retirees, but by other financially independent residents as well.

Income matters more than age

When an application is reviewed, age itself is rarely decisive. Financial stability is.

French authorities do not publish a fixed minimum income requirement. What they assess instead is whether the applicant has sufficient and reliable resources to live in France without relying on public assistance. This usually includes:

  • a state or private pension;
  • additional regular income;
  • personal savings.

In practice, the clearer and more predictable the income, the stronger the application.

Paris

Housing is not a formality

Relocation is not possible without a confirmed place to live. A hotel booking or short-term accommodation is usually not enough.

Applicants are expected to show that they:

  • have secured long-term rental housing;
  • own property in France;
  • or will legally reside with a host who can provide accommodation.

This is one of the most closely examined aspects of the application — and one of the most common reasons for refusal.

Healthcare: private coverage first

At the time of application, retirees must hold private health insurance valid in France and covering essential medical risks. This requirement is non-negotiable.

Access to France’s public healthcare system may become possible after a period of legal residence, but this depends on individual circumstances, length of stay, and administrative status. It is not automatic.

What the process usually looks like

Moving to France is rarely a single step. More often, it unfolds as a sequence:

  • applying for a long-stay visa in the country of residence;
  • entering France;
  • completing administrative registration;
  • residing legally for the duration of the visa;
  • applying for renewal.

The initial status is typically granted for up to one year. Continued residence depends on meeting the same conditions.

Restrictions people often overlook

Living in France under a visitor visa comes with clear limitations:

  • working in France is prohibited;
  • income from French sources is not allowed;
  • social benefits are not part of this status.

These are not temporary inconveniences, but core conditions of residence.

Looking further ahead

Long-term legal residence can, over time, open the door to a more permanent status, such as long-term residency. In theory, citizenship may also be possible, though it requires meeting additional criteria, including language proficiency and integration.

For many retirees, however, the goal is simpler: to live quietly and legally, without having to change status every few months.

Moving to France after retirement is not about a special programme or age-based privilege. It is a question of preparation, financial resources, and understanding the rules. For those with stable income and no intention to work, France offers a lawful and relatively predictable way to settle long-term.

No promises of shortcuts — but no closed doors either.

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Trump Slams Partial Travel Ban on Nigeria, Others Over Security Concerns

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By Adedapo Adesanya

The United States President Donald Trump has imposed a partial travel restriction on Nigeria, as part of a series of new actions, citing security concerns.

The latest travel restriction will affect new Nigerians hoping to travel to the US, as it cites security concerns and difficulties in vetting nationals.

The travel restrictions also affect citizens of other African as well as Black-majority Caribbean nations.

This development comes months after the American President threatened to invade the country over perceived persecution against Christians.

President Trump had already fully banned the entry of Somalis as well as citizens of Afghanistan, Chad, Republic of the Congo, Equatorial Guinea, Eritrea, Haiti, Iran, Libya, Myanmar, Sudan, and Yemen.

The countries newly subject to partial restrictions, besides Nigeria, are Angola, Antigua and Barbuda, Benin, Dominica, Gabon, The Gambia, Ivory Coast, Malawi, Mauritania, Senegal, Tanzania, Tonga, Zambia and Zimbabwe.

Angola, Senegal and Zambia have all been prominent US partners in Africa, with former president Joe Biden hailing the three for their commitment to democracy.

In the proclamation, the White House alleged high crime rates from some countries on the blacklist and problems with routine record-keeping for passports.

The White House acknowledged “significant progress” by one initially targeted country, Turkmenistan.

The Central Asian country’s nations will once again be able to secure US visas, but only as non-immigrants.

The US president, who has long campaigned to restrict immigration and has spoken in increasingly strident terms, moved to ban foreigners who “intend to threaten” Americans, the White House said.

He also wants to prevent foreigners in the United States who would “undermine or destabilize its culture, government, institutions or founding principles,” a White House proclamation said.

Other countries newly subjected to the full travel ban came from some of Africa’s poorest countries — Burkina Faso, Mali, Niger, Sierra Leone and South Sudan — as well as Laos in southeast Asia.

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