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Investment Key to Future Growth for Global, African Aviation

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Paul Calvey Oliver Wyman Partner

The aviation sector’s recovery from COVID-19 has been remarkable, with revenue passenger kilometres (RPKs) and available seat kilometres (ASKs) reaching close to pre-pandemic levels, according to the International Air Transport Association (IATA). In the fourth quarter of 2023, traffic was at 98.2% of pre-pandemic numbers. Additionally, the sector is expected to experience record fleet and maintenance, repair, and overhaul (MRO) growth this year.

Oliver Wyman’s latest Global Fleet and MRO Market Forecast predicts that the number of commercial aircraft worldwide will expand at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 2.5%, reaching more than 36,400 aircraft by the start of 2034. This represents a 28% increase over the current fleet of around 28,400 aircraft. The forecast also indicates that global MRO spending is expected to reach US$104 billion, surpassing the pre-pandemic peak in 2020. That spending will still, however, fall short of demand. By 2034, MRO demand worldwide is projected to reach US$124 billion.

In Africa, the fleet is expected to grow about 25% by 2034, reaching over 1,400 aircraft. The largest growth is projected to occur between 2029 and 2034, with a CAGR of 2.7%. For example, South African Airways has announced plans to expand its fleet to approximately 40 aircraft over the next decade, from just 13 today.

“The growth in Africa reflects an expected expansion of demand. Figures from IATA show that African passenger numbers will nearly double by 2035. This will require airlines to continue to invest in expanding their fleet, as well as looking at new routes to add to their network,” says Paul Calvey, Oliver Wyman Partner and Head of its operations in South Africa.

But while the global and African numbers reflect growth, they fall short of pre-pandemic predictions. Before the pandemic, it was anticipated that the global aircraft fleet would reach 36,000 by 2030. Now, it is unlikely to reach that size before 2036, resulting in a six-year setback in industry growth due to COVID-19. From an African perspective, this slow recovery is particularly understandable. Several African airlines folded as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, and in 2020 alone, the continent’s aviation sector lost US$7.7 billion in revenue.

This highlights the magnitude of the setback caused by COVID-19. Additionally, the current global fleet size isn’t significantly higher than the 27,492 aircraft that were in service in 2019. To regain its previous trajectory, the aviation sector will require significant investment, much of which will depend on global economic growth.

Investment challenges in the aviation industry 

The forecast identifies several challenges that hinder investment in the aviation sector. These include the impact of COVID-19, inflation, and shortages of skilled labour, raw materials, and aviation maintenance technicians (AMTs) and engineers. The industry must modernise and optimise production along the supply chain, while the MRO support network faces similar challenges in keeping aircraft operational.

“While the industry must invest in overcoming those challenges, it’s important to remember that it’s not easy for it to do so at present, according to a number of trends,” says André Martins, Partner and Head of Transportation and Services for India, Middle East, and Africa regions (IMEA) at Oliver Wyman.

He continues that “rapidly rising interest rates have made borrowing far more expensive than it was pre-pandemic. Mounting inflation, meanwhile, has created significant wage pressure across the industry. In the US, for instance, captains’ salaries at mainline airlines increased by 46% between 2020 and 2023, while those flying for US regional airlines saw their wages rise by 86%. Furthermore, this inflationary environment has led to higher costs for aircraft components and other supplies compared to before the pandemic.”

Other cost factors, such as escalating conflicts in the Middle East and attacks on ships in the Red Sea, have led to increased aviation fuel prices. Although prices are lower than in 2022, industry players remain cautious about potential further increases.

Gearing up for global growth 

Despite the current challenges, there are indications that conditions may improve, facilitating investment in the aviation sector. While global economic growth is currently at its lowest level since the 1990s, the outlook is becoming more positive. Inflation is expected to ease, and the US economy is projected to experience a soft landing. Although major economies like China still face economic headwinds, the global economy is likely to avoid recession.

This positive outlook will eventually enable central banks to reduce interest rates, making borrowing cheaper and enabling crucial investments in the aviation sector.

“Investment is necessary not only to address labour and supply chain optimisation challenges but also to meet the increasing pressure for environmental sustainability. This includes investing in sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), which can significantly reduce emissions,” Martins says.

Maximising available opportunities

By maximising the available opportunities in Africa, such as collaboration on infrastructure development and investment in African airlines, the industry can not only recover but thrive in the coming years. Investors and policymakers also have a role to play in supporting sustainable growth through policies that incentivize investment in new technologies and skilled labour.

Travel/Tourism

How to Travel Like a Pro This Easter – With Smart and Essential Hacks

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smart and essential hacks

Easter is almost here, and with it comes the perfect opportunity to escape the everyday hustle and embark on a memorable adventure. Whether you’re craving some ‘chilling’ time, quality ‘family’ time, or a ‘pepper dem’ getaway, Nigeria offers endless possibilities for exploration. And the best part? Travelling locally has never been easier or more affordable.

Whether you’re a ‘newbie’ traveller or a seasoned pro, we’ve got you covered with essential hacks that will make your trip a breeze. Say goodbye to stress and hello to smooth sailing as you navigate your Easter getaway like a true travel expert.

Planning your trip is like packing your suitcase – essential, not optional

Just like you wouldn’t leave home without your power-bank (just in case!), don’t head off on a quick trip without a plan. A little prep can save you time, money, and stress — from booking flights and sorting transport, to packing light and right.

Nigeria has endless ways to travel. Flying with local airlines like Air Peace or Ibom Air is quick and budget-friendly, while renting a car gives you the freedom to explore scenic routes like the drive to Erin-Ijesha Waterfalls or the journey to Obudu Cattle Ranch. Not into driving? Buses like Peace Mass or God is Good are easy and affordable. And for a truly luxurious experience, you could even consider a chartered flight – if you’re balling!

Travel like a pro: The art of smart packing

Packing smartly is a crucial travel hack that can save both time and money. Amelia Campher recently shared on TikTok how she organised her hair, beauty, makeup, and personal accessories into different vanity cases and toiletry bags from Temu. Each one perfectly stores her daily essentials, keeping everything neat and accessible. She excitedly told her followers, “This is your sign to buy these bags!” Her clever packing strategy ensures that she’s ready for any trip without unnecessary clutter or stress.

Take Jasmin’s experience, for example. After getting hit with extra carry-on fees on a previous flight, she decided to be smarter about her upcoming family trip. In her search for a solution, she found the perfect backpack on Temu for just under ₦40k. Ticking all the boxes, it avoided extra carry-on fees and allowed her to efficiently pack 16 items plus a makeup bag. When they arrived at the airport, Jasmin’s family breezed through check-in with no issues, their backpacks meeting size requirements perfectly. No extra charges, no stress; just a smooth start to their unforgettable five-day family trip.

Backpacks aren’t just ideal for air travel – they’re also perfect for road trips. Whether you’re cramming your car with family and their belongings or flying high, packing smart and light is essential. A compact, well-organised backpack can make your journey easier, no matter the mode of transport.

To avoid unexpected charges when flying within Nigeria this Easter, it’s crucial to familiarise yourself with airline baggage policies; while Economy Class typically permits 15kg to 20kg of checked luggage, and Premium Economy or Business Class allows up to 30kg, always verify specific weight limits with your chosen airline to prevent costly excess baggage fees, especially if you plan on packing more than the standard allowance.

No passport needed: Pack your bags for a Naija Detty Easter

Why travel halfway across the world when Nigeria has it all? This Easter, skip the long-haul and discover the treasures on your doorstep. From the buzzing streets of Lagos to the ancient city of Benin and the serene hills of Jos, unforgettable adventures are just a short trip away.

By travelling locally, you’re not only creating new memories — you’re also supporting local tourism and helping grow our economy. With so many destinations to explore, there’s something for every kind of traveller. So pack your bags, plan smartly, and make this Easter your best Naija Detty holiday yet.

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Interest for Trump’s $5m Golden Visa Dwindles

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US golden visa

The latest analysis from Astons reveals that online search interest in Donald Trump’s US Gold Card has rapidly dwindled in the days following the President’s announcement, while interest in European Golden Visa programmes has remained steadfast.

The US President has announced plans to introduce a “Gold Card” visa scheme through which he hopes wealthy foreigners will invest at least $5m in the US economy in exchange for what Trump calls “Green Card privileges“.

Astons has analysed global Google search trend data* for terms related to Golden Visas in the days and weeks following Trump’s announcement and found that while there was an initial flurry in search interest, this quickly dwindled. And even at its peak,  it never surpassed the interest garnered by the Golden Visa programmes offered by Spain and Greece.

In the 10 days immediately following Trump’s Gold Card announcement, the online search interest score for the term ‘US golden visa’ averaged out at 27.90. Meanwhile, the term ‘US gold card’ scored 24.10, while ‘Trump golden visa’ scored 22.20.

During the same time frame, search interest in European Golden Visas was significantly stronger. ‘Spain golden visa’ scored 38.90, while interest in ‘Greece golden visa’ was scored at 36.50.

However, after this initial 10 days following the announcement, interest in Trump’s offering rapidly decline, as during the subsequent 10-day period,  search interest in ‘US gold card’ fell by -82.6%, interest in ‘Trump golden visa’ fell by -76.1%, and interest in ‘US golden visa’ fell by -55.6%.

At the same time, interest in European golden visa programmes remained steadfast.

In fact, interest in ‘Greece golden visa’ increased by +1.1%, while interest in ‘Spain golden visa’ remained unchanged at 38.90.

Astons Business Development Director and Head of Astons Cyprus Office, Denis Kravchenko, commented:

“Donald Trump’s plan to introduce what is essentially a residency by investment program that, apparently, provides a quick path for citizenship to the US has understandably generated a surge in interest and speculation. But the $5m price tag is likely going to be far too high to result in a large enough level of uptake for it to reduce the US’s national debt as it is intended to do.

It is also possible that this new programme could become more popular than America’s existing EB-5 visa programme which already offers green cards to those who are willing to invest between $800,000–$1m into the US economy, so doubts around investors now being willing to pay a substantially higher price for residency are well-founded.

Should Trump decide to scrap the EB-5, one of the world’s oldest residency by investment programmes having been introduced by President George H. W. Bush under the Immigration Act of 1990, it will be all the more surprising given that 2024 saw 5,000 applications for the programme, marking an annual uplift of 85%.

It remains unclear whether Trump’s program will offer any substantial advantages—such as expedited processing – currently, the EB-5 path to a green card takes between one and ten years depending on nationality with the absence of stringent background checks—to motivate investors to commit more funds.

Trump may face further challenges due to there being other countries in the world that offer far more accessible programmes. Investors can, for example, qualify for Maltese citizenship through exceptional naturalisation for an investment of around 1 million euros, for which an investor can obtain citizenship to an EU member state in an average of 1.5 years without the need for permanent relocation.

Then there are the multitude of European Golden Visa programmes that are also far more budget-friendly than Trump’s new initiative. Hungary launched a new residency program in summer 2024, requiring a minimum investment of at least 250,000 euros,  and Portugal’s offer starts at a minimum investment of 500,000 euros.

However, it’s Greece’s Golden Visa opportunities that are proving most popular of all,

Despite the entry investment threshold recently being raised, it is still possible to obtain residency by purchasing property for just 250,000 euros. Somewhat ironically, it’s young Americans who are driving the recent surge in demand for Greek Golden Visas which, in 2024, set a record, issuing 17,194 visas (based on 11 months of data).”

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Airbus Showcases Hydrogen Aircraft Technologies

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Airbus customer support centre

By Aduragbemi Omiyale

Airbus has provided an update on its roadmap to pioneer the future of commercial aviation in the decades to come, outlining plans to prepare a next-generation single-aisle aircraft that could enter service in the second half of the 2030s, as well as its revised ZEROe project roadmap to mature the technologies associated with hydrogen-powered flight.

This was at the 2025 Airbus Summit, where the firm reconfirmed its commitment to bringing to market a commercially viable hydrogen aircraft and presented some of the key technology building blocks that will enable the advent of a fully electric, fuel-cell powered commercial aircraft – a pathway which stands out as the most promising, following years of research into hydrogen aviation.

These technologies were notably showcased as part of a new, notional concept of a hydrogen aircraft powered by four, 2-megawatt electric propulsion engines, each driven by a fuel cell system that converts hydrogen and oxygen into electrical energy.

The four fuel cell systems would be supplied via two liquid hydrogen tanks. This concept will continue to be refined over the coming years as additional tests will help mature the technologies associated with hydrogen storage and distribution, as well as with the propulsion systems.

In 2023, Airbus successfully demonstrated a 1.2MW hydrogen-propulsion system, and in 2024, end-to-end testing of an integrated fuel cell stack, electric motors, gearboxes, inverters and heat exchangers was completed.

To address liquid hydrogen handling and distribution challenges in flight, Airbus, in collaboration with Air Liquide Advanced Technologies, has developed the Liquid Hydrogen BreadBoard (LH2BB) in Grenoble, France.

Integrated ground testing is planned for 2027 at the Electric Aircraft System Test House in Munich, combining the propulsive bench and hydrogen distribution system for comprehensive system validation.

“Hydrogen is at the heart of our commitment to decarbonise aviation. While we’ve adjusted our roadmap, our dedication to hydrogen-powered flight is unwavering.

“Just as we saw in the automotive sector, fully electric aircraft powered by hydrogen fuel cells have the potential in the longer term to revolutionise air transport for the better, complementing the sustainable aviation fuel pathway,” the Head of Future Programmes at Airbus, Bruno Fichefeux, stated.

“Over the last five years, we have explored multiple hydrogen-propulsion concepts, before down-selecting this fully electric concept. We are confident it could provide the necessary power density for a hydrogen-powered commercial aircraft and could evolve as we mature the technology.

“In the coming years, we will concentrate on advancing the storage, distribution and propulsion systems, while also advocating for the regulatory framework needed to ensure these aircraft can take flight,” the Head of the ZEROe Project at Airbus, Glenn Llewellyn, added.

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