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Investment Key to Future Growth for Global, African Aviation

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Paul Calvey Oliver Wyman Partner

The aviation sector’s recovery from COVID-19 has been remarkable, with revenue passenger kilometres (RPKs) and available seat kilometres (ASKs) reaching close to pre-pandemic levels, according to the International Air Transport Association (IATA). In the fourth quarter of 2023, traffic was at 98.2% of pre-pandemic numbers. Additionally, the sector is expected to experience record fleet and maintenance, repair, and overhaul (MRO) growth this year.

Oliver Wyman’s latest Global Fleet and MRO Market Forecast predicts that the number of commercial aircraft worldwide will expand at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 2.5%, reaching more than 36,400 aircraft by the start of 2034. This represents a 28% increase over the current fleet of around 28,400 aircraft. The forecast also indicates that global MRO spending is expected to reach US$104 billion, surpassing the pre-pandemic peak in 2020. That spending will still, however, fall short of demand. By 2034, MRO demand worldwide is projected to reach US$124 billion.

In Africa, the fleet is expected to grow about 25% by 2034, reaching over 1,400 aircraft. The largest growth is projected to occur between 2029 and 2034, with a CAGR of 2.7%. For example, South African Airways has announced plans to expand its fleet to approximately 40 aircraft over the next decade, from just 13 today.

“The growth in Africa reflects an expected expansion of demand. Figures from IATA show that African passenger numbers will nearly double by 2035. This will require airlines to continue to invest in expanding their fleet, as well as looking at new routes to add to their network,” says Paul Calvey, Oliver Wyman Partner and Head of its operations in South Africa.

But while the global and African numbers reflect growth, they fall short of pre-pandemic predictions. Before the pandemic, it was anticipated that the global aircraft fleet would reach 36,000 by 2030. Now, it is unlikely to reach that size before 2036, resulting in a six-year setback in industry growth due to COVID-19. From an African perspective, this slow recovery is particularly understandable. Several African airlines folded as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, and in 2020 alone, the continent’s aviation sector lost US$7.7 billion in revenue.

This highlights the magnitude of the setback caused by COVID-19. Additionally, the current global fleet size isn’t significantly higher than the 27,492 aircraft that were in service in 2019. To regain its previous trajectory, the aviation sector will require significant investment, much of which will depend on global economic growth.

Investment challenges in the aviation industry 

The forecast identifies several challenges that hinder investment in the aviation sector. These include the impact of COVID-19, inflation, and shortages of skilled labour, raw materials, and aviation maintenance technicians (AMTs) and engineers. The industry must modernise and optimise production along the supply chain, while the MRO support network faces similar challenges in keeping aircraft operational.

“While the industry must invest in overcoming those challenges, it’s important to remember that it’s not easy for it to do so at present, according to a number of trends,” says André Martins, Partner and Head of Transportation and Services for India, Middle East, and Africa regions (IMEA) at Oliver Wyman.

He continues that “rapidly rising interest rates have made borrowing far more expensive than it was pre-pandemic. Mounting inflation, meanwhile, has created significant wage pressure across the industry. In the US, for instance, captains’ salaries at mainline airlines increased by 46% between 2020 and 2023, while those flying for US regional airlines saw their wages rise by 86%. Furthermore, this inflationary environment has led to higher costs for aircraft components and other supplies compared to before the pandemic.”

Other cost factors, such as escalating conflicts in the Middle East and attacks on ships in the Red Sea, have led to increased aviation fuel prices. Although prices are lower than in 2022, industry players remain cautious about potential further increases.

Gearing up for global growth 

Despite the current challenges, there are indications that conditions may improve, facilitating investment in the aviation sector. While global economic growth is currently at its lowest level since the 1990s, the outlook is becoming more positive. Inflation is expected to ease, and the US economy is projected to experience a soft landing. Although major economies like China still face economic headwinds, the global economy is likely to avoid recession.

This positive outlook will eventually enable central banks to reduce interest rates, making borrowing cheaper and enabling crucial investments in the aviation sector.

“Investment is necessary not only to address labour and supply chain optimisation challenges but also to meet the increasing pressure for environmental sustainability. This includes investing in sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), which can significantly reduce emissions,” Martins says.

Maximising available opportunities

By maximising the available opportunities in Africa, such as collaboration on infrastructure development and investment in African airlines, the industry can not only recover but thrive in the coming years. Investors and policymakers also have a role to play in supporting sustainable growth through policies that incentivize investment in new technologies and skilled labour.

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Aerodrome Certification Catalyst for Investors Confidence at PH Int’l Airport

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Aerodrome Certification PH Airport

By Bon Peters

The South-South Regional Manager of the Federal Airport Authority (FAAN), Mrs Lynda Ezike, has said Aerodrome Certification by the Nigeria Civil Aviation Authority (NCAA) could serve as a catalyst for investors’ confidence for Port Harcourt International Airport in Omagwa, Rivers State.

Mrs Ezike made the assertion in Port Harcourt recently during a chat with newsmen, noting that the certification has also strategically positioned the facility for global recognition, thereby promoting the ease of doing business at the Airport.

The FAAN chief, who also manages the airport, reaffirmed the determination and commitment to leverage on the certification awarded the facility to promote better services.

“We will continue to uphold all operational policies in the aviation sector,” she said, adding that the certification was a confirmation that the facility fully met all global benchmarks.

According to her, the airport topped in infrastructure, operational procedures and safety management, revealing that the NCAA, as part of its drive to institutionalise global standards across Nigeria’s airport networks, recently issued Aerodrome Certificates to Kano and Port Harcourt Airports.

She commended the exercise, emphasizing its importance to boosting investors’ confidence for airline operators, passengers and airport users.

“The certification officially presented on December 19, 2025, followed a strict and rigorously structured regulatory processes jointly carried out by the NCAA and FAAN.

“This collaborative scrutiny underscores the importance of interagency collaboration towards safety and operational excellence across Nigeria’s sectors,” she said.

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NCAA Not Behind Rising Air Fares—Achimugu Tackles Onyema

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NCAA

By Adedapo Adesanya

‎‎The Nigerian Civil Aviation Authority (NCAA) has disputed claims by the chief executive of Air Peace, Mr Allen Onyema, that excessive taxes are responsible for high domestic airfares.

During a recent interview with Arise TV, Mr Onyema stated that a one-hour flight costs over $400 abroad, but in Nigeria, tickets are still sold for N125,000, which he said is equivalent to less than $60. He said this is why the mortality rate of airlines in Nigeria is very high, as over 80 airlines have became non-operational.

‎‎He then said that airlines keep just 23 per cent of a N350,000 ticket after taxes and charges, but the NCAA has pushed back, describing the tax complaints as untrue, blaming the increase in fares on the festive season demand.

On his X handle, the NCAA’s spokesperson, Mr Michael Achimugu, stated that after summoning all domestic airlines, they all admitted to not paying the volume of taxes being publicly complained about.

Mr ‎‎Achimugu blamed the fare hikes witnessed in December on the high demand of the festive season, noting there was no concurrent increase in official taxes or jet fuel costs at the time. He also stated that taxes account for only 5-6 per cent.

“Lies have been told over this matter, over and over. I have addressed this on national TV, major news platforms, and via my X handle. While the NCAA does not regulate airfares, I have invited all of the domestic airlines, bar none, and asked them about these taxes they keep talking about on TV. They all admitted to not paying the volume of taxes being bandied around.

“I don’t understand this 350k and 81k narrative, but I know that, for the kind of support that President Bola Tinubu, the aviation minister, Festus Keyamo, and the DGCA, Capt. Chris Najomo have given to domestic carriers, I see no reason why the government keeps getting thrown under the bus via statements like this.

‎”It is even ironic that, in the same statement, it is alleged that Nigerians pay the lowest domestic airfares in the world while also justifying the astronomical airfares that came to play in December, even though there was no hike in taxes or jet fuel.

‎”If my inviting the airlines themselves, speaking with travel agents, and the relevant departments within the Authority did not agree with the narrative being pushed, I don’t see how this is sustainable. If high taxes were the reason why airfares were 150k-200k, why did tickets well for as high as 500k for a 45-minute trip when the said taxes did not increase?

“‎And this is happening at a time when Festus Keyamo has ensured that domestic carriers now have access to dry lease aircraft, something they have not had in decades. Not a single airline staff I spoke with two weeks ago agreed with the excuses I am reading on social and traditional media,” he said.

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How New Tax Laws Will Benefit Aviation Industry—Oyedele

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Aviation Sector

By Adedapo Adesanya

The federal government has defended Nigeria’s new tax laws, insisting that the reforms will ease, rather than worsen the financial pressure on the aviation industry.

According to the Presidential Fiscal Policy and Tax Reforms Committee, the new framework directly addresses several long-standing tax issues that have driven up airline operating costs over the years.

In a detailed explanation by the Committee’s Chairman, Mr Taiwo Oyedele, the government acknowledged the genuine challenges facing airlines, including multiple taxes, levies and regulatory charges.

This comes after the chairman of Air Peace, Mr Allen Onyema, cautioned that Nigeria’s domestic aviation sector faces a serious financial strain as the tax provisions set to kick start by 2026 risk pushing ticket prices beyond N1 million and forcing airlines to suspend operations.

In a lengthy post on X, formerly known as Twitter, Mr Oyedele noted that extensive consultations with airline operators have taken place and that engagements with stakeholders are ongoing to ensure the reforms deliver tangible relief.

He explained that at the centre of the reforms is the removal of the 10 per cent withholding tax (WHT) on aircraft leases, which has historically been the single largest tax burden on Nigerian airlines. Under the previous regime, airlines paid non-recoverable WHT on leased aircraft, significantly increasing costs and straining cash flow.

He said the new tax laws eliminate this automatic charge and replace it with a rate to be determined by regulation, opening the door for a full exemption or a substantially reduced rate.

“A $50 million aircraft lease previously attracted $5 million in WHT—an amount airlines can now avoid under the new framework,” he illustrated.

The reforms also overhaul the treatment of Value Added Tax (VAT) in the sector. While the temporary VAT suspension introduced after COVID-19 appeared beneficial, it effectively embedded VAT into airline costs because input VAT on assets, consumables and overheads could not be recovered. Under the new laws, airlines become fully VAT-neutral. VAT paid on imported or locally sourced goods and services will be fully claimable, with refunds mandated within 30 days where excess credits arise.

Mr Oyedele said the system is backed by a dedicated tax refund account and allows VAT credits to be offset against other tax liabilities, improving liquidity and reducing cost pressures.

On import duties, the government clarified that existing exemptions on commercial aircraft, engines and spare parts remain intact.

“The new tax laws do not introduce any reversal or additional burden in this area, preserving critical cost relief for airlines that depend heavily on imported equipment,” he said.

He also addressed concerns around ticket prices, noting that the committee is understands that aviation is a low-margin business and that a 7.5 per cent VAT on tickets, within a system of full input VAT recovery, has a much smaller net impact than widely assumed. Even in a worst-case scenario where VAT is not recoverable, the maximum increase would still be limited to the headline 7.5 per cent.

“For example, a N125,000 ticket would rise to no more than N134,375, while a N350,000 ticket would not exceed N376,250,” he said.

The tax titan also noted that further relief is expected from changes to corporate taxation. The new laws provide a framework to reduce corporate income tax from 30 per cent to 25 per cent, a move that would directly benefit airlines.

In addition, several profit-based levies—such as Tertiary Education Tax, NASENI, NITDA and Police levies—have been harmonised into a single Development Levy. This consolidation reduces complexity, lowers the cumulative burden and provides greater certainty for operators.

Addressing complaints about multiple levies and charges on airlines and tickets, the committee clarified that these are not products of the new tax laws. Rather, they are legacy issues that the government is working to resolve through collaboration with industry players and relevant agencies.

Mr Oyedele also maintained that the new tax laws offer a strong legal and policy foundation to resolve long-standing challenges in the aviation sector. By lowering operating costs, improving cash flow and ensuring minimal impact on passengers, the reforms are positioned as a critical part of the solution to the industry’s problems—not the cause.

He stressed that sustained engagement with stakeholders will be key to addressing remaining non-tax issues and ensuring the full benefits of the reforms are realised.

He added that claims not grounded in fact risk undermining progress, noting that the new tax laws are designed to support the long-term viability and growth of Nigeria’s aviation industry.

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