Travel/Tourism
Investment Key to Future Growth for Global, African Aviation
The aviation sector’s recovery from COVID-19 has been remarkable, with revenue passenger kilometres (RPKs) and available seat kilometres (ASKs) reaching close to pre-pandemic levels, according to the International Air Transport Association (IATA). In the fourth quarter of 2023, traffic was at 98.2% of pre-pandemic numbers. Additionally, the sector is expected to experience record fleet and maintenance, repair, and overhaul (MRO) growth this year.
Oliver Wyman’s latest Global Fleet and MRO Market Forecast predicts that the number of commercial aircraft worldwide will expand at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 2.5%, reaching more than 36,400 aircraft by the start of 2034. This represents a 28% increase over the current fleet of around 28,400 aircraft. The forecast also indicates that global MRO spending is expected to reach US$104 billion, surpassing the pre-pandemic peak in 2020. That spending will still, however, fall short of demand. By 2034, MRO demand worldwide is projected to reach US$124 billion.
In Africa, the fleet is expected to grow about 25% by 2034, reaching over 1,400 aircraft. The largest growth is projected to occur between 2029 and 2034, with a CAGR of 2.7%. For example, South African Airways has announced plans to expand its fleet to approximately 40 aircraft over the next decade, from just 13 today.
“The growth in Africa reflects an expected expansion of demand. Figures from IATA show that African passenger numbers will nearly double by 2035. This will require airlines to continue to invest in expanding their fleet, as well as looking at new routes to add to their network,” says Paul Calvey, Oliver Wyman Partner and Head of its operations in South Africa.
But while the global and African numbers reflect growth, they fall short of pre-pandemic predictions. Before the pandemic, it was anticipated that the global aircraft fleet would reach 36,000 by 2030. Now, it is unlikely to reach that size before 2036, resulting in a six-year setback in industry growth due to COVID-19. From an African perspective, this slow recovery is particularly understandable. Several African airlines folded as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, and in 2020 alone, the continent’s aviation sector lost US$7.7 billion in revenue.
This highlights the magnitude of the setback caused by COVID-19. Additionally, the current global fleet size isn’t significantly higher than the 27,492 aircraft that were in service in 2019. To regain its previous trajectory, the aviation sector will require significant investment, much of which will depend on global economic growth.
Investment challenges in the aviation industry
The forecast identifies several challenges that hinder investment in the aviation sector. These include the impact of COVID-19, inflation, and shortages of skilled labour, raw materials, and aviation maintenance technicians (AMTs) and engineers. The industry must modernise and optimise production along the supply chain, while the MRO support network faces similar challenges in keeping aircraft operational.
“While the industry must invest in overcoming those challenges, it’s important to remember that it’s not easy for it to do so at present, according to a number of trends,” says André Martins, Partner and Head of Transportation and Services for India, Middle East, and Africa regions (IMEA) at Oliver Wyman.
He continues that “rapidly rising interest rates have made borrowing far more expensive than it was pre-pandemic. Mounting inflation, meanwhile, has created significant wage pressure across the industry. In the US, for instance, captains’ salaries at mainline airlines increased by 46% between 2020 and 2023, while those flying for US regional airlines saw their wages rise by 86%. Furthermore, this inflationary environment has led to higher costs for aircraft components and other supplies compared to before the pandemic.”
Other cost factors, such as escalating conflicts in the Middle East and attacks on ships in the Red Sea, have led to increased aviation fuel prices. Although prices are lower than in 2022, industry players remain cautious about potential further increases.
Gearing up for global growth
Despite the current challenges, there are indications that conditions may improve, facilitating investment in the aviation sector. While global economic growth is currently at its lowest level since the 1990s, the outlook is becoming more positive. Inflation is expected to ease, and the US economy is projected to experience a soft landing. Although major economies like China still face economic headwinds, the global economy is likely to avoid recession.
This positive outlook will eventually enable central banks to reduce interest rates, making borrowing cheaper and enabling crucial investments in the aviation sector.
“Investment is necessary not only to address labour and supply chain optimisation challenges but also to meet the increasing pressure for environmental sustainability. This includes investing in sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), which can significantly reduce emissions,” Martins says.
Maximising available opportunities
By maximising the available opportunities in Africa, such as collaboration on infrastructure development and investment in African airlines, the industry can not only recover but thrive in the coming years. Investors and policymakers also have a role to play in supporting sustainable growth through policies that incentivize investment in new technologies and skilled labour.
Travel/Tourism
Trump Slams Partial Travel Ban on Nigeria, Others Over Security Concerns
By Adedapo Adesanya
The United States President Donald Trump has imposed a partial travel restriction on Nigeria, as part of a series of new actions, citing security concerns.
The latest travel restriction will affect new Nigerians hoping to travel to the US, as it cites security concerns and difficulties in vetting nationals.
The travel restrictions also affect citizens of other African as well as Black-majority Caribbean nations.
This development comes months after the American President threatened to invade the country over perceived persecution against Christians.
President Trump had already fully banned the entry of Somalis as well as citizens of Afghanistan, Chad, Republic of the Congo, Equatorial Guinea, Eritrea, Haiti, Iran, Libya, Myanmar, Sudan, and Yemen.
The countries newly subject to partial restrictions, besides Nigeria, are Angola, Antigua and Barbuda, Benin, Dominica, Gabon, The Gambia, Ivory Coast, Malawi, Mauritania, Senegal, Tanzania, Tonga, Zambia and Zimbabwe.
Angola, Senegal and Zambia have all been prominent US partners in Africa, with former president Joe Biden hailing the three for their commitment to democracy.
In the proclamation, the White House alleged high crime rates from some countries on the blacklist and problems with routine record-keeping for passports.
The White House acknowledged “significant progress” by one initially targeted country, Turkmenistan.
The Central Asian country’s nations will once again be able to secure US visas, but only as non-immigrants.
The US president, who has long campaigned to restrict immigration and has spoken in increasingly strident terms, moved to ban foreigners who “intend to threaten” Americans, the White House said.
He also wants to prevent foreigners in the United States who would “undermine or destabilize its culture, government, institutions or founding principles,” a White House proclamation said.
Other countries newly subjected to the full travel ban came from some of Africa’s poorest countries — Burkina Faso, Mali, Niger, Sierra Leone and South Sudan — as well as Laos in southeast Asia.
Travel/Tourism
Detty December: FCCPC Investigates Possible Exploitative Air Fares
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Federal Competition and Consumer Protection Commission (FCCPC) has commenced an investigation into pricing templates behind high ticket rates charge by some airlines on some domestic routes.
A statement issued by the Director of Corporate Affairs of the commission, Mr Ondaje Ijagwu, in Abuja said the investigation was to establish possible violations of the provisions of the law.
Mr Ijagwu said that concerns had been expressed widely in the past few days over what appeared to be coordinated manipulation or exploitation in the pricing of airline tickets by some airlines on certain routes, adding that the routes where concerns had been raised included the South-East and South-South, as the festive season began.
According to him, the ongoing investigation targets operators on the identified routes.
He said the commission would apply appropriate enforcement measures where evidence showed any violation of the Federal Competition and Consumer Protection Act (FCCPA).
Mr Ijagwu explained that Air Peace, had instituted a court action seeking to restrain the agency from examining its pricing mechanisms, following the commencement of an investigation into its pricing model after widespread complaints from members of the public.
He said the ongoing inquiry was without prejudice to the case instituted against the Commission by Air Peace.
The director quoted the vice chairman of FCCPC, Mr Tunji Bello, as saying “the commission would not hesitate to act where evidence showed that consumers welfare or market competitiveness were being undermined.
”For the avoidance of doubt, we are not a price control board but the FCCP Act 2018 empowers us to check the exploitation of consumers.
”When we receive petitions or where we find cogent evidence, we will not stand by and watch Nigerian consumers being exploited under any guise.
”Given the arbitrary spike in airfares, the Commission is extending its review of pricing patterns, the basis for the increases reported by consumers, and any practices that could undermine fair competition.
”Where evidence confirms a breach of the Act, FCCPC will apply appropriate enforcement measures,” Mr Bello said, promising that the organisation will continue to provide updates on the ongoing investigations in the aviation industry.
Travel/Tourism
Verve, Providus Bank Unveil Travel Card for Tourists, Others
By Aduragbemi Omiyale
A travel card designed for tourists, business visitors, Diaspora returnees has been launched by Verve in partnership with Providus Bank.
Known as the ProvidusVerve Travel Card, the Naira-based travel card will allow inbound travellers to enjoy a smooth, secure, and convenient payment experience throughout their stay in Nigeria. It was powered by Verve’s secure.
Created to support the surge of tourists, expatriates, business visitors, conference delegates, and returning diaspora expected during the festive Detty December season, the ProvidusVerve Travel Card enables seamless payments for transportation, hotels, dining, shopping, entertainment, and everyday essentials nationwide.
The card also works on select global merchant platforms that accept Verve, including Netflix, Google Play, and other digital services, ensuring travellers enjoy uninterrupted access to familiar services.
The ProvidusVerve Travel Card eliminates the hassle of sourcing naira or converting foreign currency on arrival. It enables instant, secure transactions, reduces reliance on cash, and supports compliance with the cashless policy of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN).
It also mitigates the risks associated with carrying physical cash such as loss, theft, or fraud, offering a safe, regulation-aligned option for both online and in-person payments.
“The ProvidusVerve Travel Card is a timely solution for inbound travellers seeking reliability, security, and simplicity while navigating Nigeria.
“Together with Providus Bank, we have created a product that eliminates the friction traditionally associated with accessing local payments.
“Whether for tourism, business, or festive activities, this card ensures a smooth financial experience from the moment visitors land,” the Vice President for Issuing and Acquiring Management for Africa at Verve International, Mr Paul Ohakim, stated.
On his part, the Divisional Head for Product Management and Solution Delivery at Interswitch, Mr Ademola Adeniran, described the partnership as a reflection of “Verve’s commitment to designing products that respond to real user needs.”
“The ProvidusVerve Travel Card supports everyday experiences — from booking rides and hotels to shopping, streaming, and dining. It provides inbound travellers with a secure, compliant, digital-first way to experience Nigeria without financial barriers,” he added.
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