Travel/Tourism
Investment Key to Future Growth for Global, African Aviation
The aviation sector’s recovery from COVID-19 has been remarkable, with revenue passenger kilometres (RPKs) and available seat kilometres (ASKs) reaching close to pre-pandemic levels, according to the International Air Transport Association (IATA). In the fourth quarter of 2023, traffic was at 98.2% of pre-pandemic numbers. Additionally, the sector is expected to experience record fleet and maintenance, repair, and overhaul (MRO) growth this year.
Oliver Wyman’s latest Global Fleet and MRO Market Forecast predicts that the number of commercial aircraft worldwide will expand at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 2.5%, reaching more than 36,400 aircraft by the start of 2034. This represents a 28% increase over the current fleet of around 28,400 aircraft. The forecast also indicates that global MRO spending is expected to reach US$104 billion, surpassing the pre-pandemic peak in 2020. That spending will still, however, fall short of demand. By 2034, MRO demand worldwide is projected to reach US$124 billion.
In Africa, the fleet is expected to grow about 25% by 2034, reaching over 1,400 aircraft. The largest growth is projected to occur between 2029 and 2034, with a CAGR of 2.7%. For example, South African Airways has announced plans to expand its fleet to approximately 40 aircraft over the next decade, from just 13 today.
“The growth in Africa reflects an expected expansion of demand. Figures from IATA show that African passenger numbers will nearly double by 2035. This will require airlines to continue to invest in expanding their fleet, as well as looking at new routes to add to their network,” says Paul Calvey, Oliver Wyman Partner and Head of its operations in South Africa.
But while the global and African numbers reflect growth, they fall short of pre-pandemic predictions. Before the pandemic, it was anticipated that the global aircraft fleet would reach 36,000 by 2030. Now, it is unlikely to reach that size before 2036, resulting in a six-year setback in industry growth due to COVID-19. From an African perspective, this slow recovery is particularly understandable. Several African airlines folded as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, and in 2020 alone, the continent’s aviation sector lost US$7.7 billion in revenue.
This highlights the magnitude of the setback caused by COVID-19. Additionally, the current global fleet size isn’t significantly higher than the 27,492 aircraft that were in service in 2019. To regain its previous trajectory, the aviation sector will require significant investment, much of which will depend on global economic growth.
Investment challenges in the aviation industry
The forecast identifies several challenges that hinder investment in the aviation sector. These include the impact of COVID-19, inflation, and shortages of skilled labour, raw materials, and aviation maintenance technicians (AMTs) and engineers. The industry must modernise and optimise production along the supply chain, while the MRO support network faces similar challenges in keeping aircraft operational.
“While the industry must invest in overcoming those challenges, it’s important to remember that it’s not easy for it to do so at present, according to a number of trends,” says André Martins, Partner and Head of Transportation and Services for India, Middle East, and Africa regions (IMEA) at Oliver Wyman.
He continues that “rapidly rising interest rates have made borrowing far more expensive than it was pre-pandemic. Mounting inflation, meanwhile, has created significant wage pressure across the industry. In the US, for instance, captains’ salaries at mainline airlines increased by 46% between 2020 and 2023, while those flying for US regional airlines saw their wages rise by 86%. Furthermore, this inflationary environment has led to higher costs for aircraft components and other supplies compared to before the pandemic.”
Other cost factors, such as escalating conflicts in the Middle East and attacks on ships in the Red Sea, have led to increased aviation fuel prices. Although prices are lower than in 2022, industry players remain cautious about potential further increases.
Gearing up for global growth
Despite the current challenges, there are indications that conditions may improve, facilitating investment in the aviation sector. While global economic growth is currently at its lowest level since the 1990s, the outlook is becoming more positive. Inflation is expected to ease, and the US economy is projected to experience a soft landing. Although major economies like China still face economic headwinds, the global economy is likely to avoid recession.
This positive outlook will eventually enable central banks to reduce interest rates, making borrowing cheaper and enabling crucial investments in the aviation sector.
“Investment is necessary not only to address labour and supply chain optimisation challenges but also to meet the increasing pressure for environmental sustainability. This includes investing in sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), which can significantly reduce emissions,” Martins says.
Maximising available opportunities
By maximising the available opportunities in Africa, such as collaboration on infrastructure development and investment in African airlines, the industry can not only recover but thrive in the coming years. Investors and policymakers also have a role to play in supporting sustainable growth through policies that incentivize investment in new technologies and skilled labour.
Travel/Tourism
Passengers to Enjoy Starlink Wi-Fi on Emirates’ Flagship A380
By Aduragbemi Omiyale
Air travellers flying through Emirates will enjoy Starlink Wi-Fi onboard after the completion of the installation of the internet service on the company’s flagship A380.
The introduction of Starlink on the A380 builds on Emirates’ ongoing investment into redefining the customer journey, including one of the most ambitious retrofit programmes in aviation history.
The airline operator recently test-run this on a flight to Dubai, and it allowed passengers to enjoy seamless broadband while flying at 40,000 feet.
The Emirates A380 was one of the first commercial aircraft in the world to offer internet to its customers, with first-generation systems offering a total aircraft bandwidth of less than 1 Mbps. The installation and certification were accomplished in Newquay, UK.
With more A380s scheduled for accelerated installation throughout 2026, Emirates customers will soon enjoy a transformative leap in onboard connectivity with the ability to stream, game, browse, and work throughout their journey on personal devices.
The service will be complimentary for all customers, across all cabins, with easy sign-up and access. Future enhancements will include Live TV streaming over Starlink, initially on personal devices and later integrated into seatback screens.
So far, more than 650,000 Emirates customers have already flown on Starlink‑equipped flights, experiencing the benefits of next‑generation onboard connectivity firsthand.
As the world’s largest passenger aircraft, the A380 presents unique engineering challenges and opportunities. This industry-first Starlink configuration is designed to meet the demands of the A380’s ‘double-decker’ layout and high passenger capacity and is capable of delivering more than 2 Gbps of total aircraft bandwidth across the cabin.
Compared with the Emirates Boeing 777, the Emirates A380 features additional wireless access points and a third antenna to deliver an enhanced connectivity experience for its higher passenger capacity. Optimised inter‑deck integration supports a seamless Wi‑Fi experience, with customers able to enjoy high speeds depending on usage and device capability.
Starlink installations will soon begin at Emirates Engineering facilities in Dubai to accelerate deployment across the fleet.
Emirates is committed to bringing the best possible connectivity to its entire fleet at the earliest opportunity, with 25 Boeing 777-300ER aircraft already equipped with Starlink and the first A380 now joining service.
Travel/Tourism
Nigeria Caps Jet Fuel Prices, Allows Airlines Buy on Credit to Avert Disruptions
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Nigerian government is capping jet fuel prices and allowing airlines to get supplies on credit as part of efforts to avert flight disruptions caused by soaring fuel costs.
Reuters reported that the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) said in an internal document that aviation fuel should sell for N1,760 to N1,988 ($1.29 to $1.46) per litre in Lagos and N1,809 to N2,037 in Abuja, based on benchmarks from April 17 to April 23.
The decision follows emergency talks after airlines threatened to go on a strike, warning that jet fuel prices had jumped by more than 300 per cent, forcing fare increases and raising the risk of capacity cuts.
The strike was averted after the federal government met with the Airline Operators of Nigeria (AON) and other stakeholders.
President Bola Tinubu last week approved 30 per cent relief on airlines’ debts to aviation agencies and ordered fuel marketers, airlines and regulators to agree on a “fair” fuel price within 72 hours to prevent the sector-wide shutdown that would have impacted the country’s economy.
The talks also agreed to grant airlines a 30-day credit window to pay for fuel and tasked the aviation ministry with mediating debt disputes between operators and oil marketers, according to the document.
The NMDPRA also formed a technical committee, which recommended that fuel marketers sell directly to airlines within the indicated price range to cut costs and improve supply-chain transparency.
The committee also urged regulators to engage Dangote Petroleum Refinery and Petrochemicals over the increased premiums applied to international benchmarks used to price jet fuel.
Other recommendations include validating airside fuel distributors with adequate infrastructure, potentially reducing the number of authorised suppliers at airports, and considering jet fuel for Nigeria’s Crude-for-Naira initiative to limit airlines’ foreign exchange exposure. So far, the Crude-for-Naira has only been for upstream operations.
The cost of fuel has generally risen in the last two months due to the escalating war with Iran by the US and Israel, which has triggered one of the most severe energy shocks in decades. Oil prices are currently above $100 per barrel as markets react to escalating tensions and the risk of prolonged disruption.
At the centre of the crisis is the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint through which roughly one-fifth of global oil supply flows. With shipping constrained, the effects are cascading across the global economy, raising fuel costs, fueling inflation, and increasing the risk of economic slowdown across many economies. This is forcing airlines to raise fares, curb growth plans and rethink forecasts.
Travel/Tourism
US to Nigerian Travellers: Visa Overstays Not Good for Fellow Citizens
By Adedapo Adesanya
The United States (US) has warned that visa overstays by Nigerian travellers could deny future opportunities for other aspiring applicants.
The United States embassy had earlier in February stated that compliance would help protect visa access for students and business travellers.
In a reminder statement posted on its official X handle on Monday, the US Mission in Nigeria advised that strengthening compliance helps protect visa access for students, business travellers, and families who travel responsibly.
“#Reminder: Visa overstays by Nigerian travellers can affect opportunities for their fellow citizens. Strengthening compliance helps protect access for students, business travellers, and families who travel responsibly. If you are aware of visa fraud, please report it to [email protected] or [email protected],” the statement read.
Last August, the Mission also announced that all non-immigrant visa applicants must now provide details of their social media accounts from the past five years.
In a statement, the embassy said applicants are required to disclose usernames or handles from every platform used within the period when completing the DS-160 visa application form.
“Visa applicants are required to list all social media usernames or handles of every platform they have used from the last 5 years on the DS-160 visa application form. Applicants certify that the information in their visa application is true and correct before they sign and submit,” the statement read.
The mission warned that omitting such information could result in visa denial and render applicants ineligible for future visas.
The DS-160 is the standard online form required for most US non-immigrant visas, including temporary business (B-1), tourism (B-2), student visas (F and M), and work-related categories such as the H-1B.
It insisted the new rules were designed to enhance security, they come amid repeated US criticism of governments accused of clamping down on free speech online.
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