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Investment Key to Future Growth for Global, African Aviation

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Paul Calvey Oliver Wyman Partner

The aviation sector’s recovery from COVID-19 has been remarkable, with revenue passenger kilometres (RPKs) and available seat kilometres (ASKs) reaching close to pre-pandemic levels, according to the International Air Transport Association (IATA). In the fourth quarter of 2023, traffic was at 98.2% of pre-pandemic numbers. Additionally, the sector is expected to experience record fleet and maintenance, repair, and overhaul (MRO) growth this year.

Oliver Wyman’s latest Global Fleet and MRO Market Forecast predicts that the number of commercial aircraft worldwide will expand at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 2.5%, reaching more than 36,400 aircraft by the start of 2034. This represents a 28% increase over the current fleet of around 28,400 aircraft. The forecast also indicates that global MRO spending is expected to reach US$104 billion, surpassing the pre-pandemic peak in 2020. That spending will still, however, fall short of demand. By 2034, MRO demand worldwide is projected to reach US$124 billion.

In Africa, the fleet is expected to grow about 25% by 2034, reaching over 1,400 aircraft. The largest growth is projected to occur between 2029 and 2034, with a CAGR of 2.7%. For example, South African Airways has announced plans to expand its fleet to approximately 40 aircraft over the next decade, from just 13 today.

“The growth in Africa reflects an expected expansion of demand. Figures from IATA show that African passenger numbers will nearly double by 2035. This will require airlines to continue to invest in expanding their fleet, as well as looking at new routes to add to their network,” says Paul Calvey, Oliver Wyman Partner and Head of its operations in South Africa.

But while the global and African numbers reflect growth, they fall short of pre-pandemic predictions. Before the pandemic, it was anticipated that the global aircraft fleet would reach 36,000 by 2030. Now, it is unlikely to reach that size before 2036, resulting in a six-year setback in industry growth due to COVID-19. From an African perspective, this slow recovery is particularly understandable. Several African airlines folded as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, and in 2020 alone, the continent’s aviation sector lost US$7.7 billion in revenue.

This highlights the magnitude of the setback caused by COVID-19. Additionally, the current global fleet size isn’t significantly higher than the 27,492 aircraft that were in service in 2019. To regain its previous trajectory, the aviation sector will require significant investment, much of which will depend on global economic growth.

Investment challenges in the aviation industry 

The forecast identifies several challenges that hinder investment in the aviation sector. These include the impact of COVID-19, inflation, and shortages of skilled labour, raw materials, and aviation maintenance technicians (AMTs) and engineers. The industry must modernise and optimise production along the supply chain, while the MRO support network faces similar challenges in keeping aircraft operational.

“While the industry must invest in overcoming those challenges, it’s important to remember that it’s not easy for it to do so at present, according to a number of trends,” says André Martins, Partner and Head of Transportation and Services for India, Middle East, and Africa regions (IMEA) at Oliver Wyman.

He continues that “rapidly rising interest rates have made borrowing far more expensive than it was pre-pandemic. Mounting inflation, meanwhile, has created significant wage pressure across the industry. In the US, for instance, captains’ salaries at mainline airlines increased by 46% between 2020 and 2023, while those flying for US regional airlines saw their wages rise by 86%. Furthermore, this inflationary environment has led to higher costs for aircraft components and other supplies compared to before the pandemic.”

Other cost factors, such as escalating conflicts in the Middle East and attacks on ships in the Red Sea, have led to increased aviation fuel prices. Although prices are lower than in 2022, industry players remain cautious about potential further increases.

Gearing up for global growth 

Despite the current challenges, there are indications that conditions may improve, facilitating investment in the aviation sector. While global economic growth is currently at its lowest level since the 1990s, the outlook is becoming more positive. Inflation is expected to ease, and the US economy is projected to experience a soft landing. Although major economies like China still face economic headwinds, the global economy is likely to avoid recession.

This positive outlook will eventually enable central banks to reduce interest rates, making borrowing cheaper and enabling crucial investments in the aviation sector.

“Investment is necessary not only to address labour and supply chain optimisation challenges but also to meet the increasing pressure for environmental sustainability. This includes investing in sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), which can significantly reduce emissions,” Martins says.

Maximising available opportunities

By maximising the available opportunities in Africa, such as collaboration on infrastructure development and investment in African airlines, the industry can not only recover but thrive in the coming years. Investors and policymakers also have a role to play in supporting sustainable growth through policies that incentivize investment in new technologies and skilled labour.

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Customs Tackles Airport Delays With Smart Declaration Platform

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Smart Declaration Platform

By Modupe Gbadeyanka

In a move aimed at improving passenger clearance, compliance and customs operations, the Nigeria Customs Service (NCS) has introduced the Simplified Customs Advanced Declaration System (SCADS).

This platform was launched at the International Wing of the Nnamdi Azikiwe International Airport, Abuja, on Monday, May 18, 2026.

This initiative will simplify baggage declaration for inbound international passengers and reduce manual bottlenecks, improve transparency in revenue assessment and enhance operational efficiency at Nigeria’s international airports.

It allows passengers to declare items before arrival, thereby reducing clearance time while improving compliance and operational integrity.

The introduction of this scheme became necessary following operational challenges encountered on the Service’s previous passenger declaration platform earlier this year, and rather than allow the setbacks to slow operations, customs chose to develop a stronger and more efficient alternative.

“When the earlier platform experienced operational challenges, we chose not to see it as a setback. We saw it as an opportunity to build something better, stronger and more efficient.

“For passengers, this system creates the opportunity for advance declaration before arrival. It means faster clearance, easier compliance and smoother movement through our airports,” the Deputy Comptroller-General of Customs in charge of ICT/Modernisation, Ms Oluyomi Adebakin, said yesterday.

She noted that the system will eliminate subjective revenue assessment by ensuring that duties are automatically generated based on declared items, their quantities, and their actual values.

“When we talk about revenue collection, it is not about collecting more or less. It is about collecting the right revenue. With this system, assessment will now be more objective, accurate and driven by data,” she stated.

Earlier, the Customs Area Controller for FCT Area Command, Comptroller Victoria Alibo, described the selection of the command for the pilot phase as a vote of confidence in its operational capacity.

According to her, the new platform integrates passenger baggage and e-commerce declarations into a single digital framework designed to support global Customs best practices.

“SCADS is designed to simplify declarations, reduce clearance time, eliminate manual bottlenecks and align our operations with international standards,” Ms Alibo said, adding that the pilot phase will run for five days, from Monday, May 18, to Friday, May 22, 2026, during which officers will evaluate the system in a live environment ahead of nationwide deployment.

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Dangote Refinery Slashes Jet Fuel Price to N1,650 Per Litre

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aviation fuel Jet A1

By Aduragbemi Omiyale

The price of aviation fuel, also known as Jet A1, has been reduced by Dangote Petroleum Refinery and Petrochemicals to N1,650 per litre from N1,750 per litre.

The company, in a statement, said this price slash was done to ease cost pressures on airlines and ensure an uninterrupted fuel supply across the country.

This is in addition to a 30-day interest-free credit facility backed by bank guarantees (BG) for marketers and airline operators and a shift from a dollar-denominated pricing structure to a naira-based model.

The private refiner also stated that these interventions come amid growing concerns over the rising operational costs faced by domestic carriers, with aviation fuel accounting for a significant portion of airline expenses.

Industry stakeholders have repeatedly warned that escalating Jet A1 prices were placing severe financial strain on operators and threatening the sustainability of flight operations.

The refinery’s decision is expected to provide relief to airline operators by lowering fuel procurement costs, improving operational stability, and supporting efforts to moderate airfares.

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Valiente Jet Limited Loses Aircraft to FG

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Valiente Jet Limited

By Adedapo Adesanya

The Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) has secured a final forfeiture order for a Hawker private Jet 125 before Justice Emeka Nwite of the Federal High Court, Maitama, Abuja, over its links to fraud, corruption, and money laundering in relation to the Maiduguri Emergency Power Project (MEPP).

The aircraft, with model number 800XP, serial number 258553 and registration number 5N-AMK, was forfeited following an application by the EFCC.

Justice Nwite, ruling on the application, held that no sufficient cause was shown by Valiente Jet Limited, a company owned by Mr Abdulsalam Kachallah, an interested party, why the aircraft should not be finally forfeited to the Federal Government.

“The interested party has not demonstrated with evidence the lawful origin of the funds used to purchase the aircraft,” the judge held, stressing that the disguised manner through which the aircraft was acquired using the name of a Bureau De Change (BDC) operator who denied knowledge of the nature of the transaction further lent credence to the unlawfulness of the entire transaction.

In a statement by the anti-graft agency, it disclosed that the investigation revealed Mr Kachallah entered into unlawful agreements with China Machinery Engineering Company (CMEC) through shell companies.

The EFCC also alleged that he sold privileged bidding information relating to the project in exchange for financial inducements.

“The investigation further showed that CMEC was subsequently awarded three contracts under the project valued at $52,120,172 (Fifty Two Million One Hundred and Twenty Thousand, One Hundred and Seventy Two Dollars) and ₦20,213,956,953 (Twenty Billion, Two Hundred and Thirteen Million, Nine Hundred and Fifty Six Thousand, Nine Hundred and Fifty Three Naira),” it said.

The EFCC revealed that part of the contract funds was routed through Afuwa Integrated Services Limited, a Bureau De Change operator, under the false claim that the company was subcontracted by CMEC.

“CMEC transferred the sum of $2,070,000 (Two Million, Seventy Thousand Dollars) into the Stanbic IBTC Bank account of Afuwa Integrated Services Limited on Kachallah’s instruction,” it further revealed.

It disclosed that forged invoices were prepared in the name of Afuwa Integrated Services Limited to falsely portray that legitimate services had been rendered to CMEC.

“The funds were thereafter transferred to a Brazilian account for the purchase of the aircraft from a Brazilian company,” the EFCC revealed.

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