Travel/Tourism
Investment Key to Future Growth for Global, African Aviation
The aviation sector’s recovery from COVID-19 has been remarkable, with revenue passenger kilometres (RPKs) and available seat kilometres (ASKs) reaching close to pre-pandemic levels, according to the International Air Transport Association (IATA). In the fourth quarter of 2023, traffic was at 98.2% of pre-pandemic numbers. Additionally, the sector is expected to experience record fleet and maintenance, repair, and overhaul (MRO) growth this year.
Oliver Wyman’s latest Global Fleet and MRO Market Forecast predicts that the number of commercial aircraft worldwide will expand at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 2.5%, reaching more than 36,400 aircraft by the start of 2034. This represents a 28% increase over the current fleet of around 28,400 aircraft. The forecast also indicates that global MRO spending is expected to reach US$104 billion, surpassing the pre-pandemic peak in 2020. That spending will still, however, fall short of demand. By 2034, MRO demand worldwide is projected to reach US$124 billion.
In Africa, the fleet is expected to grow about 25% by 2034, reaching over 1,400 aircraft. The largest growth is projected to occur between 2029 and 2034, with a CAGR of 2.7%. For example, South African Airways has announced plans to expand its fleet to approximately 40 aircraft over the next decade, from just 13 today.
“The growth in Africa reflects an expected expansion of demand. Figures from IATA show that African passenger numbers will nearly double by 2035. This will require airlines to continue to invest in expanding their fleet, as well as looking at new routes to add to their network,” says Paul Calvey, Oliver Wyman Partner and Head of its operations in South Africa.
But while the global and African numbers reflect growth, they fall short of pre-pandemic predictions. Before the pandemic, it was anticipated that the global aircraft fleet would reach 36,000 by 2030. Now, it is unlikely to reach that size before 2036, resulting in a six-year setback in industry growth due to COVID-19. From an African perspective, this slow recovery is particularly understandable. Several African airlines folded as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, and in 2020 alone, the continent’s aviation sector lost US$7.7 billion in revenue.
This highlights the magnitude of the setback caused by COVID-19. Additionally, the current global fleet size isn’t significantly higher than the 27,492 aircraft that were in service in 2019. To regain its previous trajectory, the aviation sector will require significant investment, much of which will depend on global economic growth.
Investment challenges in the aviation industry
The forecast identifies several challenges that hinder investment in the aviation sector. These include the impact of COVID-19, inflation, and shortages of skilled labour, raw materials, and aviation maintenance technicians (AMTs) and engineers. The industry must modernise and optimise production along the supply chain, while the MRO support network faces similar challenges in keeping aircraft operational.
“While the industry must invest in overcoming those challenges, it’s important to remember that it’s not easy for it to do so at present, according to a number of trends,” says André Martins, Partner and Head of Transportation and Services for India, Middle East, and Africa regions (IMEA) at Oliver Wyman.
He continues that “rapidly rising interest rates have made borrowing far more expensive than it was pre-pandemic. Mounting inflation, meanwhile, has created significant wage pressure across the industry. In the US, for instance, captains’ salaries at mainline airlines increased by 46% between 2020 and 2023, while those flying for US regional airlines saw their wages rise by 86%. Furthermore, this inflationary environment has led to higher costs for aircraft components and other supplies compared to before the pandemic.”
Other cost factors, such as escalating conflicts in the Middle East and attacks on ships in the Red Sea, have led to increased aviation fuel prices. Although prices are lower than in 2022, industry players remain cautious about potential further increases.
Gearing up for global growth
Despite the current challenges, there are indications that conditions may improve, facilitating investment in the aviation sector. While global economic growth is currently at its lowest level since the 1990s, the outlook is becoming more positive. Inflation is expected to ease, and the US economy is projected to experience a soft landing. Although major economies like China still face economic headwinds, the global economy is likely to avoid recession.
This positive outlook will eventually enable central banks to reduce interest rates, making borrowing cheaper and enabling crucial investments in the aviation sector.
“Investment is necessary not only to address labour and supply chain optimisation challenges but also to meet the increasing pressure for environmental sustainability. This includes investing in sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), which can significantly reduce emissions,” Martins says.
Maximising available opportunities
By maximising the available opportunities in Africa, such as collaboration on infrastructure development and investment in African airlines, the industry can not only recover but thrive in the coming years. Investors and policymakers also have a role to play in supporting sustainable growth through policies that incentivize investment in new technologies and skilled labour.
Travel/Tourism
Airlines Fault Claims of Unpaid NCAA Regulatory Fees
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Airline Operators of Nigeria (AON) has denied owing cost recovery charges to the Nigeria Civil Aviation Authority (NCAA), insisting that all services rendered by the regulator to domestic airline operators are paid for fully in advance on a cash-before-service basis.
In a statement from the airlines’ body, it was emphasised that no domestic airline in Nigeria receives NCAA regulatory services without first making full payment of invoices issued to it by the agency, describing suggestions of the indebtedness for regulatory services as factually inaccurate.
It said that what the NCAA refers to as ‘outstanding charges’ relates solely to the 5 per cent Ticket Sales Charge (TSC), a tax imposed by the NCAA on passengers, which it said is not in consonance with the dictates of international aviation.
The AON then urged the federal government to urgently amend the Civil Aviation Act to empower the NCAA to collect whatever appropriate fees and charges are due it directly from passengers or whoever else, without routing such through the domestic airlines, from June 1, 2026.
It said doing this will relieve domestic airlines of the financial burden of acting as collection agents for the NCAA, since airlines currently bear banking transfer charges and other transaction costs in the process of transmitting funds to the organisation.
The airline body reiterated its position that the NCAA is a regulator, not a revenue-generating agency and that it does not fund any aspect of the airline businesses or render any direct service to passengers.
The AON said every service the agency provides to airline operators is fully paid for in advance before it is rendered.
“The AON notes that several member airlines maintain dedicated accounts, from which the NCAA draws down its monthly remittances, until the force majure caused by the Iran-Israel/USA conflict, which had put a lot of financial pressure on airlines worldwide.
“Notwithstanding this arrangement, the AON had formally appealed to the federal government through the office of the Minister of Aviation and Aerospace Development, to suspend the payment of all statutory charges temporarily, as an interim measure to assist airlines in managing their cash flows during the current period of severe financial stress caused by the increase in the cost of Jet A1.
“As an interim response, President Bola Tinubu graciously granted a 30 per cent concession while waiting for the government’s decision on the other aspects of the AON intervention request.
“While the AON acknowledges and appreciates this gesture, we had appealed for a meeting with Mr President to discuss further reliefs, a request that is yet to be granted,” the AON said.
Speaking further on reports that airlines owe billions in debt to the NCAA, the AON said the 5 per cent Ticket Service Charge in question was introduced over 45 years ago under the Government of General Gowon by the then Federal Civil Aviation Authority (FCAA) and its continued relevance has not been reviewed ever since.
It further stated that domestic airlines, in addition to the 5 per cent TSC, still pay separately ànd directly for services provided by the various industry agencies, including the NCAA itself.
AON said that the 5 per cent TSC is an ad valorem tax applied to an airline’s gross earnings, not profits and that the global aviation industry operates at a profit margin of between 1.5 per cent and 2.5 per cent at best.
“The AON remains committed to constructive engagement with the government and all stakeholders to achieve a growth-oriented sector, designed to enable the accelerated growth of key sectors of the economy and the improvement and sustenance of a healthy quality of life for the citizenry,” it said.
Travel/Tourism
Airline Remittances: NCAA Halts Enforcement of ‘No Pay, No Service’ Policy
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Nigeria Civil Aviation Authority (NCAA) has announced the temporary suspension of its “no pay, no service” directive earlier issued to airlines with outstanding statutory remittances, citing ongoing consultations and prevailing operational challenges in the aviation sector.
In a statement, the authority said the decision followed a review of industry conditions, particularly the rising cost of aviation fuel, which has placed significant financial pressure on domestic carriers and threatens overall sector stability.
However, the NCAA stressed that the suspension does not amount to a waiver, cancellation, or forgiveness of the debts owed by the affected airlines, noting that such decisions fall outside its regulatory mandate.
The agency recalled that President Bola Tinubu had earlier approved a 30 per cent discount on outstanding statutory charges owed by domestic airlines to aviation agencies, as part of broader government efforts to cushion the impact of high Jet A1 fuel costs and stabilise the industry.
According to the NCAA, airlines remain fully responsible for settling their obligations, adding that it would engage operators individually to ensure compliance through structured repayment arrangements that do not disrupt operations.
The regulator also clarified the nature of the 5 per cent Ticket and Cargo Sales Charge, describing it as a statutory levy mandated by the Civil Aviation Act and embedded in the cost of air travel and cargo services.
It explained that the charge is collected by airlines at the point of ticket and cargo sales on behalf of the aviation system and must be remitted accordingly.
The organisation emphasised that the funds do not constitute revenue or profit for the airlines and should not be treated as such.
It further noted that the revenue from these charges is distributed among key aviation institutions, including the regulator itself and other service providers, all of which play vital roles in ensuring safe, efficient, and internationally compliant aviation operations.
It added that the NCAA operates on a cost-recovery basis and does not receive direct funding from the Federal Government for its routine regulatory activities, making timely remittance of statutory charges critical to sustaining its oversight functions.
The suspension of the enforcement directive, it said, is a measured step aimed at maintaining operational stability in the sector while reinforcing the obligation of airlines to remit collected charges.
The NCAA reaffirmed its commitment to balancing regulatory enforcement with industry sustainability, warning that statutory funds already collected must be remitted for their intended purposes.
Travel/Tourism
Emirates Skywards Commences ‘Season of Rewards’ Campaign
By Modupe Gbadeyanka
A new campaign designed to celebrate its passengers across the globe has been launched by Emirates Skywards, a statement from the company confirmed.
The promotion is known as Season of Rewards, and will run from May 21 to August 31, 2026, with beneficiaries getting different rewards for their patronage.
The Skywards Season of Rewards offers more savings with Cash+Miles on Emirates and flydubai, with members unlocking twice the savings, including enhanced Cash+Miles rates across the Emirates and flydubai network when booking flights and extras (excess baggage, lounge access and seat selection. The offer applies across all classes of travel, fare brands and destinations on both airlines. With the limited-time offer, 2,000 Skywards Miles can unlock savings of $30 instead of $15.
In addition, passengers will receive extra tier benefits for travel up until August 31, 2026. Members earn a 20 per cent bonus Tier Miles on every Emirates or flydubai flight, helping members move through the tiers faster. With reduced Tier Miles required during this period, it’s now even easier for members to renew or upgrade their membership status.
Also, they will get 50 per cent bonus Miles with travel partners, including Emirates Skywards Hotels, Marriott Bonvoy, IHG Hotels and Resorts, Jumeirah and more. However, registration is required to participate, and bonus Miles will be credited within 60 days after the end of the offer period.
Further, Skywards members can book their next reward flight and extras with Miles, starting from 4,500 Miles instead of 9,000 Miles during the promo period across all routes, cabins and fares.
“Skywards Season of Rewards reflects our continued commitment to creating even more value for our members worldwide.
“Whether members are planning a family holiday, a Dubai stopover, a weekend escape, or simply looking to maximise rewards across their travel spend – this initiative unlocks more opportunities to earn, save and experience the world with Emirates Skywards,” the DSVP Emirates Skywards, Nejib Ben Khedher, said.
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