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Geopolitics: Russia Extending its Sphere of Influence in Africa’s Sahel

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Africa's Sahel Region

By Kester Kenn Klomegah

With renewed and full-fledged interest to uproot French domination, Russia has ultimately begun making inroads into Africa’s Sahel region, an elongated landlocked territory located between North Africa (Maghreb) and West Africa, and also stretches from the Atlantic Ocean to the Red Sea.

While it remains largely underdeveloped and the greater part of the population impoverished, terrorist organizations including Boko Haram and Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) are operating and have contributed to the frequent violence, extremism and instability in this vast region.

Usually referred to as the G5 Sahel, it consists of Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, Mauritania and Niger. Besides instability, these countries are engulfed with various socio-economic problems primarily due to the system of governance and poor policies toward sustainable development. There are, in addition, rights abuse and cultural practices that affect development.

In July 2020, the United States raised concern over the growing number of allegations of human rights violations and abuses by state security forces in the entire Sahel. The US response came after the documents released by Human Rights Watch in early July. France, former colonial power, still attempts at dominating the region. France has announced the pulling out of the military force, abruptly ending its counter-terrorism operations and thus creating a huge vacuum.

By 2022, France plans to reduce and move its troops and will be restricted to regions that are not strategic for combating terrorism, which indicates that they will probably only act in the security of specific points, such as diplomatic and international organizations facilities. That ends the so-called “Operation Barkhane”, which was a military mission marked by a tactic of permanent occupation of the Sahel countries by French troops. The French government, however, apparently will try to reorganize its strategy in Africa. It seems that the focus of action will turn to the Gulf of Guinea.

For fear and concerns about the new rise of terrorism, the Sahel-5 countries are turning to Russia. Last year after the political power changed hands on August 18 in Mali, a former French colony with a fractured economy and a breeding field for armed Islamic jihadist groups, Russia offered tremendous assistance.

By showing support for the military government in Mali, Russia has utterly ignored or violated the protocols for implementing the “Silencing the Guns” agenda in West Africa, a flagship programme of the African Union’s Agenda 2063. Now Russia is capitalizing on this loophole opportunity, eyeing Chad and Mali as possible conduits, to penetrate into the Sahel.

Foreign Ministers of the Sahel countries have been lining up for visits to Russia, the latest being the Minister of Foreign Affairs, African Integration and Chadians Abroad of the Republic of Chad, Cherif Zene Mahamat, who paid a working visit on December 6‒8. Prior to that, Malian Foreign Minister Abdoulaye Diop visited in November. In both meetings, several critical issues were discussed: military assistance to fight growing terrorism, and efforts to strengthen political dialogue and promote some kind of partnerships relating to trade and the economy in the region.

In the middle of November, Chairperson of the African Union Commission, Moussa Faki Mahamat, agreed with Sergey Lavrov on terms of helping with the necessary equipment, weapons and ammunition in the Sahel. Lavrov referred to this in his opening remarks as “military and technical cooperation” with AU’s Chairperson Faki Mahamat – “a worthy representative in this high position of pan-regional importance.”

“We discussed African affairs at length: the difficult situation in the Sahara-Sahel zone that was destabilized after NATO’s aggressive attack on Libya. This was followed by an inflow of terrorists, smugglers, and volumes of illegal weapons from the north to the south of Africa. These criminals were particularly attracted to this area and the Lake Chad region,” Lavrov told the media conference following the closed-door meeting on December 7.

In the process, it is necessary to mobilize all available resources of the Africans and the international community for fighting terrorist groups. Nevertheless, it is also necessary for Russia’s efforts to maintain the joint forces of the Sahel Five, according to Lavrov. He further assured: “we will continue supporting it with the supply of arms and hardware and personnel training, including peacekeepers, as it is very important to help put an end to this evil and other challenges and threats, including drug trafficking and other forms of organized crime.”

According to several narratives, Russia has agreed to push the Wagner mercenaries into the entire Sahara-Sahel, including the G5 Sahel group of Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, Mauritania, and Niger, which focused on combating terrorism. Many experts say Russia has set out to battle against the neo-colonial tendencies of France and stepping also to join what is often phrased “the scramble for resources” in Africa.

In his remarks, Lavrov explicitly points to creating favourable conditions for the implementation of Russian projects in Chad, including in the field of energy and the extraction of mineral resources.

Further to such narratives, Russia has meanwhile embarked on fighting “neo-colonialism” which it considers as a stumbling stone on its way to regain a part of its Soviet-era influence in Africa. Russia has sought to convince Africans over the past years of the likely dangers of neocolonial tendencies perpetrated by the former colonial countries and the scramble for resources on the continent. However, all such warnings could fall on deaf ears as African leaders choose development partners with funds to invest in the economy.

It is necessary to acknowledge that neither France, Russia, the United States nor any colonizing force will truly solve the problems that confront Africa. Some African leaders sign non-transparent agreements, routinely ignore both the executive and legislative decisions on tendering national projects and natural resources.

There have been cases, where huge natural-resource projects were given away without cabinet discussions and parliament’s approval. Apparently, these agreements on resources extraction hardly deliver broad-based development dividends.

Meanwhile, there are vivid indications that Russia is broadening its geography of diplomacy covering poor African countries and especially fragile States that need Russia’s military assistance. Chad, Mali and Niger, for example, have appeared on its radar, Russia sees some potential there – as a possible gateway into the Sahel in Africa.

Russian Foreign Ministry has explained in a statement posted on its website, that Russia’s military-technical cooperation with African countries is primarily directed at settling regional conflicts and preventing the spread of terrorist threats and fighting the growing terrorism in the continent. Worth noting here is that Russia, in its strategy on Africa is reported to be also looking into building military bases on the continent.

Over the past years, strengthening military-technical cooperation has been part of the foreign policy of the Russian Federation. Russia has signed bilateral military-technical cooperation agreements with many African countries. Researchers say it plans to build military bases as this article explicitly reported, among others.

Research Professor Irina Filatova at the Higher School of Economics in Moscow explains in an emailed conversation that “Russia’s influence in the Sahel has been growing just as French influence and assistance has been dwindling, particularly in the military sphere. It is for the African countries to choose their friends, but it would be better to deal directly with the government, than with (mercenaries of the Russian) Wagner group, whose connection with the government was barely recognized.”

In very particular cases, she suggested: “If they wanted the Russians to come and fight Islamist groups, it would be much better to ask the government to send regular troops. Wagner’s vigilantes are not responsible to anybody, and the Russian government may refuse to take any responsibility for whatever they do in case something goes wrong.”

In another interview, Grigory Lukyanov, a Senior Researcher at Russia’s Institute of Oriental Studies, explained that such relations are useful particularly in the field of resource extraction and security services, where Russia has competitive advantages.

According to media reports, the arrival of Russian mercenaries in the Sahel—of which thousands are expected—would jeopardize other external commitments to fighting terrorism, and limit development assistance from international organizations. For example, Reuters has reported that a possible contract could be worth US$10.8 million, or estimated more per month, depending on the contract, working with the Russian private military company Wagner Group.

Down the years, Kremlin has been saying the Russian government has no ties to the business of Wagner Group. Then at the same time, the Russian authorities have fiercely defended Wagner Group’s military business in countries facing conflicts that it has the legitimate right to work and pursue its business interests anywhere in the world as long as it did not break Russian law.

Reports indicated that the African Union has supported the activities of the Wagner group in Africa. While civilian abuses by the Russian mercenary group are rampant, especially in the Central African Republic, the African Union has displayed insensitivity in taking any drastic decision.

The Russians arrived in the Central African Republic in 2017 after the meeting between President Faustin-Archange Touadera and President Vladimir Putin and Russia’s Foreign Minister. Russian donated weapons to CAR’s weak military and provided 175 military instructors. Since then, the number of Russian instructors has grown to 1,200.

According to Pauline Bax, a Senior Editor and Policy Advisor at the International Crisis Group, “The situation in CAR is very precarious, a lot of the fighters are not necessarily Russians. There is a Libyan contingent. There are Syrian fighters, people from Ukraine and Chechnya fighters as well.

It is hard to get any clear idea of what exactly they do in the countryside. And this Wagner force together with the national army has managed to secure a lot of mining zones as well as major towns in the country, which was unprecedented, this has not happened in the Central African Republic in the last 20 years.”

United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres has often spoken against such collaboration, the use of Russian mercenaries in Africa. Instead, he has suggested pursuing the creation and deployment of the G5 Sahel Joint-Force and the United Nations Integrated Strategy (UNIS) for the Sahel could bring tangible progress. The countries in the region are particularly encouraged to adopt, with support from international partners, the necessary measures to fully implement the support plan in developing the region.

The Sahel-Sahara, the vast semi-arid region of Africa separating the Sahara Desert to the north and tropical savannas to the south, is as much a land of opportunities as it is of challenges. Although it has abundant human and natural resources, offering tremendous potential for rapid growth, there are deep-rooted challenges – environmental, political and security – that may affect the prosperity and peace of the Sahel.

For this reason, the United Nations has come up with a unique support plan targeting 10 countries to scale up efforts to accelerate prosperity and sustainable peace in the region. Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Chad, The Gambia, Guinea Mauritania, Mali, Niger, Nigeria and Senegal. The creation and deployment of the G5 Sahel Joint-Force and the United Nations Integrated Strategy (UNIS) for the Sahel could bring tangible progress.

The best option is to consider national and regional institutions, bilateral and multilateral organizations, the private sector and civil society organizations to work towards operationalizing and implementing the United Nations Security Council resolutions on the Sahel aim at attaining regional peace, and further accelerate the achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).

This article was first and originally published by IDN-InDepthNews

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S&P Restores Afreximbank to Investment-Grade Status After 12 Years

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Afreximbank

By Adedapo Adesanya

Credit ratings agency, S&P Global Ratings, has restored the African Export-Import Bank (Afreximbank) ​to investment grade, nearly 12 years after its last assessment, citing the entity’s countercyclical lending record and ‌strong shareholder support.

The BBB+ rating with a stable outlook is one notch above Moody’s Baa2 and comes months after Afreximbank severed ties with Fitch Ratings.

The lender accused the agency of misjudging its mission, following a downgrade to junk status amid disagreements over the bank’s role in debt ​restructurings for Ghana and Zambia. Fitch subsequently withdrew its ratings entirely and flagged governance concerns.

S&P said in ​a statement on Thursday that Afreximbank’s record as a countercyclical lender and its substantial shareholder ⁠support served as rationale for its rating. Credit ratings often guide the costs of capital for a borrower.

The lender’s total assets, S&P noted, had expanded to $42.3 billion by the end of 2025, up ​from $7.1 billion in 2015.

S&P said it did not incorporate preferred creditor status into its assessment because Afreximbank ​provides almost 80 per cent of its loans to private-sector entities.

However, it acknowledged that Afreximbank, alongside other institutions, had experienced prolonged payment arrears in ‌recent ⁠years, notably following the defaults and debt restructurings in Ghana and Zambia.

S&P noted that Afreximbank said in December that it had come to an agreement with Ghana on its $750 million loan, but that the lender had not announced a resolution with Zambia.

The agency warned that further sovereign restructurings could weigh on Afreximbank’s asset quality.

S&P’s assessment described Afreximbank’s governance and management as “adequate”, saying the ⁠inclusion of ​two independent directors and the African Development Bank (AfDB) as a permanent board ​member provided institutional oversight.

It noted that while increasing participation of private-sector investors through Class D shares could influence the bank’s risk appetite, Class A ​shareholders retained veto rights over big institutional changes, balancing potential risk.

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Elon Musk Becomes World’s First Trillionaire as SpaceX Soars in Nasdaq Debut

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elon musk spacex

By Adedapo Adesanya

Mr Elon Musk, the world’s richest man, is now a trillionaire as his SpaceX rose 11 per cent in its Nasdaq debut on Friday, lifting its valuation to about $1.96 trillion as investors piled into the world’s largest initial public offering (IPO).

The stock opened for trading at $150 compared with the IPO price of $135 per share.

The landmark listing cemented Mr Musk’s status as the first trillionaire ever and propelled SpaceX into the ranks of the ⁠world’s most valuable companies

The listing is being used as a benchmark of what is to come for the market ahead of forthcoming IPOs for AI heavyweights Anthropic and OpenAI.

The record IPO is a culmination of Mr Musk’s long-held ambitions in space and technology.

Most of Musk’s wealth now rests with SpaceX, where ⁠he holds a stake worth roughly $866 billion. Along with Tesla and the rest of his properties, his net worth will exceed $1.1 trillion when the stock begins trading on Friday.

At a quoted $75 billion, the deal’s proceeds were more than double those of Saudi Aramco’s record-setting 2019 IPO.

The valuation could rise further should underwriters exercise their right to sell additional shares, a decision typically made within 30 days after the offering.

Although SpaceX may have to wait for entry into the S&P 500, its expected fast-track inclusion in the Nasdaq 100 will soon make it a major holding for passive funds and ETFs that track the index, creating a fresh source of demand for its shares.

It will take about a month before it gets added to that index under Nasdaq’s new fast-entry rules, as opposed to a typical wait of as much as a year.

SpaceX said its market opportunity spans $28.5 trillion, a figure it called the largest in human history.

Mr Musk, 54, was born in Pretoria, South Africa, to a Canadian mother and South African father. He attended the University of Pennsylvania, graduating in 1997.

He took over as Tesla’s CEO in 2008. Beyond Tesla and SpaceX, Mr Musk ‌has co-founded ⁠five other companies, including tunnelling startup The Boring Company and brain implant maker Neuralink.

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Bridge Awards Symbolize a Definitive Choice of Life in Russia—Sammy Kotwani

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Sammy Kotwani

By Kestér Kenn Klomegâh

Under the presidential decree, authorising an initiative to tap the best brains and professionals from abroad to integrate into Russian society, the Agency for Strategic Development plans to hold its first Bridge Awards, which honour the contributions of foreign citizens and repatriates who have made a definitive life choice in favour of Russia. The Bridge Awards was founded by entrepreneur Philip Hutchinson and public figure Guy Eames.

Launched in February 2026, the competition for the awards has attracted a lot of potential candidates from more than 40 countries competing for victory across 12 categories. The highest number of applications came from the United States, totalling 18. There are also a number of candidates from Europe, Asia, and Africa. The “Business” category proved to be the most geographically diverse, drawing applicants from 12 countries.

The Bridge Awards recognise the valuable contributions of foreign citizens and repatriates to the Russian society. It is also dedicated to raising awareness, recognising achievements, and building strong connections with the international community.

According to the official reports made available, among the winning applicants and world-renowned celebrities for the Business Category were Sammy Manoj Kotwani, President, Indian Business Alliance; President, SITA/Indian National Cultural Centre; President, Overseas Friends of BJP Russia; and Founder, Imperial Tailoring Company.

In this conversation, Sammy Kotwani talks about how he has lived and worked in Russia for more than three decades, his entrepreneurial achievements, and his contributions to Russian society. Here are the interview excerpts:

What really motivates you to participate in the first competition for Bridge Awards?

For me, the Bridge Awards are not only a competition. They are a recognition of a life journey. I have lived and worked in Russia for more than three decades. Russia gave me the opportunity to build my business, serve the Indian community, promote Indian culture, and create real business connections between India and Russia.

My motivation is very simple: I want to show that a foreign citizen can love Russia, respect its people, contribute to its economy, and at the same time remain deeply connected to his own roots and motherland.

Through the Indian Business Alliance, through cultural activities, through India–Russia business forums, through meetings with governors and regional leaders, my work has always been to build bridges — not only between governments, but between people, entrepreneurs, regions, cultures, and families.

So, when I heard about the Bridge Awards, I felt that this platform represents exactly what I have tried to do for many years: turn friendship into action, and respect into real cooperation.

You were selected by the Jury for the business category. What are the implications of this category?

Being selected in the business category is a very meaningful honour because business is where friendship becomes practical.

India and Russia already have strong political trust, historic goodwill, and a strategic partnership. But the real question today is: how do we convert this goodwill into trade, investment, joint ventures, logistics solutions, industrial cooperation, and regional development?

That is why the business category is important. It recognises those who are not only speaking about cooperation, but actually working on the ground to make it happen.

For me personally, it reflects the work of the Indian Business Alliance in connecting Indian entrepreneurs with Russian regions, supporting business missions, encouraging investment, discussing opportunities with governors, and identifying practical sectors such as textiles, pharmaceuticals, logistics, food processing, energy, technology, education, tourism, and skilled manpower.

This category is not only about personal achievement. It is about responsibility. It means we must continue to create platforms where Indian and Russian businesses can meet, trust each other, and build long-term partnerships.

Do you think the “Time to Live in Russia” programme has good future prospects for foreign citizens who choose to relocate and live in Russia?

Yes, I believe the “Time to Live in Russia” programme has strong future potential, provided it remains practical, transparent, and welcoming.

Many foreign professionals, entrepreneurs, investors, teachers, doctors, engineers, cultural workers, and skilled specialists are looking for countries where they can build a meaningful life. Russia has space, resources, education, culture, business opportunities, and strong regional potential.

But relocation is not only about visas or documents. A person who comes to Russia needs guidance, integration, language support, business orientation, community support, and confidence that he or she can build a stable future.

This is where such a programme can become very powerful. If it helps talented foreigners understand Russia better, settle smoothly, respect Russian society, and contribute to the economy, then it can become a serious instrument of international cooperation.

From the Indian perspective, I see strong potential. Many Indians are skilled in technology, medicine, education, trade, textiles, pharmaceuticals, engineering, hospitality, and entrepreneurship. If the right mechanism is created, India and Russia can benefit greatly from this human bridge.

How would you characterise the International Bridge Awards by the Agency for Strategic Initiatives and decreed by President Vladimir Putin?

I would characterise the Bridge Award as a timely and visionary initiative. In today’s world, countries need more than formal diplomacy. They need people who understand both sides, who can translate culture into trust, and trust into practical cooperation.

The Bridge Award gives recognition to such people — foreign citizens and repatriates who have chosen Russia not only as a place to live, but as a place to contribute.

For me, this award carries a very important message: Russia values those who sincerely work for its development, its international friendships, and its multicultural society.

The involvement of the Agency for Strategic Initiatives gives the award a serious institutional direction. It shows that this is not just a symbolic gesture, but part of a larger vision — to make Russia a place where international talent, entrepreneurs, cultural leaders, and public figures can participate in national development.

I believe this award can become a powerful platform for public diplomacy. It can show the world that Russia is open to sincere partners, serious professionals, and people who are ready to build, not just observe.

For me, as an Indian who has lived in Russia for many years, the word “bridge” is very personal. A bridge connects two banks. It allows people to cross, meet, understand, and build together. That is exactly what India and Russia need today—more bridges, more trust, more implementation, and more human connection.

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