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Geopolitics: Russia Extending its Sphere of Influence in Africa’s Sahel

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Africa's Sahel Region

By Kester Kenn Klomegah

With renewed and full-fledged interest to uproot French domination, Russia has ultimately begun making inroads into Africa’s Sahel region, an elongated landlocked territory located between North Africa (Maghreb) and West Africa, and also stretches from the Atlantic Ocean to the Red Sea.

While it remains largely underdeveloped and the greater part of the population impoverished, terrorist organizations including Boko Haram and Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) are operating and have contributed to the frequent violence, extremism and instability in this vast region.

Usually referred to as the G5 Sahel, it consists of Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, Mauritania and Niger. Besides instability, these countries are engulfed with various socio-economic problems primarily due to the system of governance and poor policies toward sustainable development. There are, in addition, rights abuse and cultural practices that affect development.

In July 2020, the United States raised concern over the growing number of allegations of human rights violations and abuses by state security forces in the entire Sahel. The US response came after the documents released by Human Rights Watch in early July. France, former colonial power, still attempts at dominating the region. France has announced the pulling out of the military force, abruptly ending its counter-terrorism operations and thus creating a huge vacuum.

By 2022, France plans to reduce and move its troops and will be restricted to regions that are not strategic for combating terrorism, which indicates that they will probably only act in the security of specific points, such as diplomatic and international organizations facilities. That ends the so-called “Operation Barkhane”, which was a military mission marked by a tactic of permanent occupation of the Sahel countries by French troops. The French government, however, apparently will try to reorganize its strategy in Africa. It seems that the focus of action will turn to the Gulf of Guinea.

For fear and concerns about the new rise of terrorism, the Sahel-5 countries are turning to Russia. Last year after the political power changed hands on August 18 in Mali, a former French colony with a fractured economy and a breeding field for armed Islamic jihadist groups, Russia offered tremendous assistance.

By showing support for the military government in Mali, Russia has utterly ignored or violated the protocols for implementing the “Silencing the Guns” agenda in West Africa, a flagship programme of the African Union’s Agenda 2063. Now Russia is capitalizing on this loophole opportunity, eyeing Chad and Mali as possible conduits, to penetrate into the Sahel.

Foreign Ministers of the Sahel countries have been lining up for visits to Russia, the latest being the Minister of Foreign Affairs, African Integration and Chadians Abroad of the Republic of Chad, Cherif Zene Mahamat, who paid a working visit on December 6‒8. Prior to that, Malian Foreign Minister Abdoulaye Diop visited in November. In both meetings, several critical issues were discussed: military assistance to fight growing terrorism, and efforts to strengthen political dialogue and promote some kind of partnerships relating to trade and the economy in the region.

In the middle of November, Chairperson of the African Union Commission, Moussa Faki Mahamat, agreed with Sergey Lavrov on terms of helping with the necessary equipment, weapons and ammunition in the Sahel. Lavrov referred to this in his opening remarks as “military and technical cooperation” with AU’s Chairperson Faki Mahamat – “a worthy representative in this high position of pan-regional importance.”

“We discussed African affairs at length: the difficult situation in the Sahara-Sahel zone that was destabilized after NATO’s aggressive attack on Libya. This was followed by an inflow of terrorists, smugglers, and volumes of illegal weapons from the north to the south of Africa. These criminals were particularly attracted to this area and the Lake Chad region,” Lavrov told the media conference following the closed-door meeting on December 7.

In the process, it is necessary to mobilize all available resources of the Africans and the international community for fighting terrorist groups. Nevertheless, it is also necessary for Russia’s efforts to maintain the joint forces of the Sahel Five, according to Lavrov. He further assured: “we will continue supporting it with the supply of arms and hardware and personnel training, including peacekeepers, as it is very important to help put an end to this evil and other challenges and threats, including drug trafficking and other forms of organized crime.”

According to several narratives, Russia has agreed to push the Wagner mercenaries into the entire Sahara-Sahel, including the G5 Sahel group of Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, Mauritania, and Niger, which focused on combating terrorism. Many experts say Russia has set out to battle against the neo-colonial tendencies of France and stepping also to join what is often phrased “the scramble for resources” in Africa.

In his remarks, Lavrov explicitly points to creating favourable conditions for the implementation of Russian projects in Chad, including in the field of energy and the extraction of mineral resources.

Further to such narratives, Russia has meanwhile embarked on fighting “neo-colonialism” which it considers as a stumbling stone on its way to regain a part of its Soviet-era influence in Africa. Russia has sought to convince Africans over the past years of the likely dangers of neocolonial tendencies perpetrated by the former colonial countries and the scramble for resources on the continent. However, all such warnings could fall on deaf ears as African leaders choose development partners with funds to invest in the economy.

It is necessary to acknowledge that neither France, Russia, the United States nor any colonizing force will truly solve the problems that confront Africa. Some African leaders sign non-transparent agreements, routinely ignore both the executive and legislative decisions on tendering national projects and natural resources.

There have been cases, where huge natural-resource projects were given away without cabinet discussions and parliament’s approval. Apparently, these agreements on resources extraction hardly deliver broad-based development dividends.

Meanwhile, there are vivid indications that Russia is broadening its geography of diplomacy covering poor African countries and especially fragile States that need Russia’s military assistance. Chad, Mali and Niger, for example, have appeared on its radar, Russia sees some potential there – as a possible gateway into the Sahel in Africa.

Russian Foreign Ministry has explained in a statement posted on its website, that Russia’s military-technical cooperation with African countries is primarily directed at settling regional conflicts and preventing the spread of terrorist threats and fighting the growing terrorism in the continent. Worth noting here is that Russia, in its strategy on Africa is reported to be also looking into building military bases on the continent.

Over the past years, strengthening military-technical cooperation has been part of the foreign policy of the Russian Federation. Russia has signed bilateral military-technical cooperation agreements with many African countries. Researchers say it plans to build military bases as this article explicitly reported, among others.

Research Professor Irina Filatova at the Higher School of Economics in Moscow explains in an emailed conversation that “Russia’s influence in the Sahel has been growing just as French influence and assistance has been dwindling, particularly in the military sphere. It is for the African countries to choose their friends, but it would be better to deal directly with the government, than with (mercenaries of the Russian) Wagner group, whose connection with the government was barely recognized.”

In very particular cases, she suggested: “If they wanted the Russians to come and fight Islamist groups, it would be much better to ask the government to send regular troops. Wagner’s vigilantes are not responsible to anybody, and the Russian government may refuse to take any responsibility for whatever they do in case something goes wrong.”

In another interview, Grigory Lukyanov, a Senior Researcher at Russia’s Institute of Oriental Studies, explained that such relations are useful particularly in the field of resource extraction and security services, where Russia has competitive advantages.

According to media reports, the arrival of Russian mercenaries in the Sahel—of which thousands are expected—would jeopardize other external commitments to fighting terrorism, and limit development assistance from international organizations. For example, Reuters has reported that a possible contract could be worth US$10.8 million, or estimated more per month, depending on the contract, working with the Russian private military company Wagner Group.

Down the years, Kremlin has been saying the Russian government has no ties to the business of Wagner Group. Then at the same time, the Russian authorities have fiercely defended Wagner Group’s military business in countries facing conflicts that it has the legitimate right to work and pursue its business interests anywhere in the world as long as it did not break Russian law.

Reports indicated that the African Union has supported the activities of the Wagner group in Africa. While civilian abuses by the Russian mercenary group are rampant, especially in the Central African Republic, the African Union has displayed insensitivity in taking any drastic decision.

The Russians arrived in the Central African Republic in 2017 after the meeting between President Faustin-Archange Touadera and President Vladimir Putin and Russia’s Foreign Minister. Russian donated weapons to CAR’s weak military and provided 175 military instructors. Since then, the number of Russian instructors has grown to 1,200.

According to Pauline Bax, a Senior Editor and Policy Advisor at the International Crisis Group, “The situation in CAR is very precarious, a lot of the fighters are not necessarily Russians. There is a Libyan contingent. There are Syrian fighters, people from Ukraine and Chechnya fighters as well.

It is hard to get any clear idea of what exactly they do in the countryside. And this Wagner force together with the national army has managed to secure a lot of mining zones as well as major towns in the country, which was unprecedented, this has not happened in the Central African Republic in the last 20 years.”

United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres has often spoken against such collaboration, the use of Russian mercenaries in Africa. Instead, he has suggested pursuing the creation and deployment of the G5 Sahel Joint-Force and the United Nations Integrated Strategy (UNIS) for the Sahel could bring tangible progress. The countries in the region are particularly encouraged to adopt, with support from international partners, the necessary measures to fully implement the support plan in developing the region.

The Sahel-Sahara, the vast semi-arid region of Africa separating the Sahara Desert to the north and tropical savannas to the south, is as much a land of opportunities as it is of challenges. Although it has abundant human and natural resources, offering tremendous potential for rapid growth, there are deep-rooted challenges – environmental, political and security – that may affect the prosperity and peace of the Sahel.

For this reason, the United Nations has come up with a unique support plan targeting 10 countries to scale up efforts to accelerate prosperity and sustainable peace in the region. Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Chad, The Gambia, Guinea Mauritania, Mali, Niger, Nigeria and Senegal. The creation and deployment of the G5 Sahel Joint-Force and the United Nations Integrated Strategy (UNIS) for the Sahel could bring tangible progress.

The best option is to consider national and regional institutions, bilateral and multilateral organizations, the private sector and civil society organizations to work towards operationalizing and implementing the United Nations Security Council resolutions on the Sahel aim at attaining regional peace, and further accelerate the achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).

This article was first and originally published by IDN-InDepthNews

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Russian Researchers Roadmap Africa’s Investment Sectors for Entrepreneurs

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Professor Irina Abramova Russian Researchers

By Kestér Kenn Klomegâh

The Centre for Transition Economy Studies of the Institute for African Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences held a two-day scientific conference under the theme: “Industrial Development Strategies of African Countries” on March 18-19. The conference was opened by Professor Irina Abramova, Director of the Institute for African Studies. More than 40 researchers and experts from Russia, South Africa, Nigeria, Egypt and North Macedonia took part in the event.

The conference focused on a wide range of significant issues related to Africa’s industrial development, the modernisation of the African production base, and the potential for Russian-African cooperation. The in-person part of the conference focused on the development of the manufacturing and extractive industries, special economic zones, energy and transport infrastructure, digitalisation, and the agro-industrial complex. The second day of the conference was conducted as an online discussion in English, featuring African colleagues on the localisation of production chains in Africa, covering both agricultural and mineral processing.

Topics of the Conference included:

  1. Continental, regional and national programs and plans of industrial development in Africa. Prospects of continental and regional production chains.
  2. Study of the manufacturing market in African countries: manufacturing and agro-industrial complexes
  3. Energy, transport, and digitalisation: necessary infrastructure for industrial development.
  4. Interests of Multinational Corporations in Africa: conditions, forms of activities and geographical distribution. The role of free economic zones.
  5. Government policy regarding Multinational Corporations and control over export-import flows.
  6. The role of international organisations and activities of external actors.
  7. Possible areas and prospects for expanding mutually beneficial cooperation for Russian companies in Africa.

Experts in African studies from Russia, as well as representatives of the Russian government and business circles involved in trade and economic cooperation with African countries, actively participated. One of the significant outputs presented at the plenary session of the conference was the full-text on the African Development Strategy database created by Professors D. A. Degterev and A. D. Novikov, together with the staff of the IAS. The database covers more than 400 official strategic planning documents across 53 countries on the continent for the period 1997–2025. It systematises them under six thematic areas: long-term and medium-term development strategies, industrial policy, ICT, agriculture and the water sector.

The plenary session featured nine reports covering key dimensions of Africa’s industrial development. There were issues of trade and industrial potential of the continent that were highlighted in the report on the export specificity of African machine-building industries: based on ITC Trade Map data (2019–2024) that shows duties of South Africa, Tunisia, and industrial production, including on intracontinental markets.

Institutional mechanisms of Russian-African economic cooperation were reviewed in the report on the activities of Intergovernmental Commissions: the number of these ICC increased from four (4) in 2023 to nine (9) in 2025, and the volume of investment funds to support African projects is planned to increase, at least, to Rouble 5 billion for 2026–2027.

The conceptual dimension of financing industrialisation was presented through a critique of universal Western narratives and the justification for the need for an “application finance strategy”—a country model that takes into account the economy of Africa. Practical aspects of Russia’s investment presence in Africa are characterized on the example of projects in the countries of the Alliance of Sahel States (AES) with an emphasis on the specific risks of the subregion (DM Sinitsyn, VEB.RF). Digitalisation and artificial intelligence development in sub-Saharan African countries were also analysed and presented at the conference.

Russian-African cooperation in the field of technologies and education was covered in the reports on the transfer of agrobiotechnologies through the Afro-Russian Centre for Technology Development in Kampala, within which, in 2025/2026, this period, in which concretely 467 citizens of African countries were trained in Russian universities (NA Goncharova, FGBU “Agroexport”).

The competitive struggle of foreign players for African markets and the possibilities of Russian participation were considered in the reports on the position of the continent on the world energy markets, supplies of ground vehicles, and activities of pharmaceuticals for Africa. The digital dimension of industrialisation was covered by the reports on the cyber potential of West Africa, the formation of data processing centres in the industrial strategy of South Africa, and the digitalisation strategies of Algeria and Morocco.

The theme of most speeches, at the conference, became a reflection on the ‘disconnection’ between the proclaimed goals of industrialisation and the actual structure of African economies: despite the widespread proliferation of pre-national strategic documents, industries in the continent’s total GDP has not exceeded 10–12% for more than two decades, and exports still comprise mainly unprocessed raw materials.

In this regard, a number of reports justify the need to transition from external financial models formed by international organisations to sovereign country strategies based on state political, industrial and human resources. Global South—including, to deepen Russian-African cooperation in the spheres of technology, education and investment.

A collective monograph is, however, planned for publication following the conference. The event included the presentation of the full-text database on African development strategies, prepared by the team of the Institute for African Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences.

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Court Finds Lafarge, Eight ex-Employees Guilty of Terrorism Financing

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Lafarge Africa

By Aduragbemi Omiyale

A court in Paris, France, has found notable French cement manufacturer, Lafarge, and eight of its former employees guilty of terrorism financing.

Delivering the judgment on Monday, Judge Isabelle Prevost-Desprez held that Lafarge paid some members of the Islamic State (IS or ISIS) in Syria about $6.5 million (€5.59 million; £4.83 million) between 2013 and 2014 to protect its plant operating in northern Syria.

The court said this action provided oxygen for the terror group to operate and carry out its violent acts.

The former chief executive of the company, Mr Bruno Lafont, was also found complicit and has been sentenced to six years.

“It is clear to the court that the sole purpose of the funding of a terrorist organisation was to keep the Syrian plant running for economic reasons. Payments to terrorist entities enabled Lafarge to continue its operations,” the judge said, adding that, “These payments took the form of a genuine commercial partnership with IS.”

The factory in Jalabiya, northern Syria, was bought by Lafarge in 2008 for $680 million and began operations in 2010, months before the civil war began in March 2011, following opposition to then-president Bashar al-Assad’s brutal repression of anti-government protests.

ISIS jihadists seized large swathes of Syria and neighbouring Iraq in 2014, declaring a so-called cross-border “caliphate” and implementing their brutal interpretation of Islamic law.

To keep its plant running and protect its employees, Lafarge, between 2013 and September 2014, paid about €800,000 to secure safe passage and €1.6 million to purchase source materials from quarries under the control of the jihadist groups.

According to the BBC, Lafarge acknowledged the court’s finding, which it said “concerns a legacy matter involving conduct that occurred more than a decade ago and was in flagrant violation of Lafarge’s code of conduct,” describing the decision as an “important milestone” in the company’s actions to “address this legacy matter responsibly.”

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Afreximbank Grows Assets to $48.5bn as Profit Hits $1.2bn

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Afreximbank

By Adedapo Adesanya

African Export-Import Bank (Afreximbank) has posted a robust financial performance for the 2025 financial year, with total assets and contingencies climbing to $48.5 billion.

This further shows its growing influence in financing trade and development across Africa and the Caribbean.

The Cairo-based multilateral lender, in its audited results released on April 9, reported a 21 per cent surge in total assets from $40.1 billion in 2024, underscoring sustained balance sheet expansion despite global economic headwinds and rating concerns.

Net loans and advances rose by 16 per cent to $33.5 billion, driven by strong disbursements into critical sectors including manufacturing, infrastructure, food security and climate adaptation, areas seen as pivotal to Africa’s long-term economic resilience.

Profitability remained strong, with net income climbing 19 per cent to $1.2 billion, up from $973.5 million in the previous year. Gross income also edged higher by 6.06 per cent to $3.5 billion, reflecting steady revenue growth supported by the bank’s expanding portfolio of trade finance and advisory services.

Afreximbank maintained solid asset quality, with its non-performing loan (NPL) ratio at 2.43 per cent, broadly stable compared to 2.33 per cent in 2024. This performance highlights disciplined risk management even as lending volumes increased across diverse markets.

Liquidity remained a key strength. Cash and cash equivalents rose significantly to $6.0 billion from $4.6 billion, while liquid assets accounted for 14 per cent of total assets, comfortably above the bank’s internal minimum threshold of 10 per cent.

Shareholders’ funds grew 17 per cent to $8.4 billion, supported by the strong profit outturn and fresh equity inflows of $299.4 million under its General Capital Increase II programme. The bank’s capital adequacy ratio stood at 23 per cent, well above regulatory benchmarks, providing a solid buffer for future growth.

Operating expenses increased to $459.2 million from $367.7 million, reflecting staff expansion and inflationary pressures. However, Afreximbank retained cost discipline, with a cost-to-income ratio of 21 per cent, still significantly below its 30 per cent ceiling.

The bank successfully tapped international capital markets, raising over $800 million through Samurai and Panda bond issuances in Japan and China during the year. The move helped counter concerns raised by some rating agencies and reaffirmed Afreximbank’s strong funding access and credibility.

Commenting on the results, Senior Executive Vice President, Mrs Denys Denya, said the performance reflects resilience and strategic execution amid a challenging global environment.

“Despite continuing global geopolitical challenges and disruptions caused by some rating actions, the Group delivered excellent financial performance in 2025,” he said.

He noted that the results cap a decade of transformative leadership under the erstwhile President, Mr Benedict Oramah, with the bank already ahead of most targets under its Sixth Strategic Plan, which runs through 2026.

Mr Denya added that newer subsidiaries, including the Fund for Export Development in Africa (FEDA) and AfrexInsure, are now profitable, contributing to earnings growth and strengthening the group’s diversified structure.

“The Group’s balance sheet is at its strongest level ever, with liquidity levels and capitalisation well above target and good asset quality,” he said.

Afreximbank said it is entering the 2026 financial year with strong momentum, positioning itself to scale impact, deepen trade integration and drive value addition across “Global Africa.”

Return metrics remained stable, with return on average equity at 15 per cent and return on average assets improving slightly to 3.04 per cent, signalling efficient use of capital.

With a fortified balance sheet, rising profitability and sustained investor confidence, Afreximbank said it is firmly on track to consolidate its role as a key engine of trade-led growth across the continent.

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