World
Russia’s Military Diplomacy in Africa: High Risk, Low Reward and Limited Impact
By Kestér Kenn Klomegâh
The South African Institute of International Affairs, a Johannesburg-based foreign policy think tank, has released a special report on Russia-Africa relations. According to the report, Russia has signed military-technical agreements with over 20 African countries and has secured lucrative mining and nuclear energy contracts on the continent.
Russia views Africa as an increasingly important vector of its post-Western foreign policy. Its support for authoritarian regimes in Africa is readily noticeable, and its soft power has drastically eroded. As suspicions arise that Russia’s growing assertiveness in Africa is a driver of instability, its approach to governance encourages pernicious practices, such as kleptocracy and autocracy in Africa.
Over the years, Russia has fallen short of delivering its pledges and promises, with various bilateral agreements undelivered. Heading into the July 2023 Russia-Africa Summit in St Petersburg (unless the proposed date and venue change, again), Russia looks more like a ‘virtual great power’ than a genuine challenger to European, American, and Chinese influence.
What is particularly interesting relates to the well-researched report by Ovigwe Eguegu, a Nigerian policy analyst at Development Reimagined, a consultancy headquartered in Beijing, China. His report was based on more than 80 media publications dealing with Russia’s military-technical cooperation in Africa. His research focused on the Republic of Mali and the Central African Republic as case studies.
The report, entitled Russia’s Private Military Diplomacy in Africa: High Risk, Low Reward, Limited Impact, argues that a quest for global power status drives Russia’s renewed interest in Africa. Few expect Russia’s security engagement to bring peace and development to countries with which it has security partnerships.
While Moscow’s opportunistic use of private military diplomacy has allowed it to gain a strategic foothold in partner countries successfully, the lack of transparency in interactions, the limited scope of impact, and the high financial and diplomatic costs expose the limitations of the partnership in addressing the peace and development challenges of African host countries, the report says.
Much of the existing literature on Russia’s foreign policy stresses that Moscow’s desire to regain great power has been pursued largely by exploiting opportunities in weak and fragile African states.
Ovigwe Eguegu’s report focuses on the use of private military companies to carry out ‘military diplomacy’ in African states, and the main research questions were: What impact is Russia’s private military diplomacy in Africa having on host countries’ peace and development? And: Why has Russia chosen military diplomacy as the preferred means to gain a foothold on the continent?
He interrogates whether fragile African states advance their security, diplomatic, and economic interests through a relationship with Russia. Overcoming the multidimensional problems facing Libya, Sudan, Somali, Mali, and Central African Republic will require comprehensive peace and development strategies that include conflict resolution and peacebuilding, state-building, security sector reform, and profound political reforms to improve governance and the rule of law – not to mention sound economic planning critical for attracting the foreign direct investment needed to spur economic growth.
In the report, Eguegu further looked at the geopolitical dynamics of Russia’s new interest in Africa. He asserted that during the Cold War, the interests of the Soviet Union and many African states aligned along pragmatic and ideological lines. After independence, many African countries resumed agitation against colonialism, racism, and capitalism throughout the 1970s and 1980s. The clash between communism and capitalism provided ample opportunity for the Soviets to provide support to African countries both in ideological solidarity and as practical opposition to Western European and US influence in Africa.
Since the Soviet collapse in 1991, Russia has rekindled relationships with African countries for myriad reasons – but these can largely be attributed to pragmatism rather than ideology. More specifically, Russia’s interactions with African states have been multi-dimensional ranging from economic and political to security-oriented.
He offered the example of Moscow’s relationships with Eritrea and Sudan, which ultimately gave Russia some influence and leeway in the critical Red Sea region and countered the influence of the US and China. But the main feature of Russia’s policy is mostly ‘elite-based’ and tends to lend support to illegitimate or unpopular leaders.
The report also highlighted the myriad socioeconomic and political challenges plaguing a number of African countries. Despite these developments, some have struggled to maintain socioeconomic and political stability. The spread of insecurity has now become more complex across the Sahel region. The crisis is multidimensional, involving political, socioeconomic, regional and climatic dimensions. Good governance challenges play their own role. Moreover, weak political and judicial institutions have contributed to deep-seated corruption.
Conflict resolution has to be tied to the comprehensive improvement of political governance, economic development, and social questions. Some fragile and conflict-ridden African countries are keen on economic diversification and broader economic development. However, progress is limited by inadequate access to finance and the delicate security situation.
According to the International Monetary Fund, these fragile states must diversify their economies and establish connections between the various economic regions and sectors. Poverty caused by years of lacklustre economic performance is one of the root causes of insecurity. As such, economic development and growth would form a key part of the solution to regional security problems.
Analysts, however, suggest that Russia utilizes mercenaries and technical cooperation mechanisms to gain and secure access to politically aligned actors and, by extension, economic benefits like natural resources and trade deals.
Arguably, adherence to a primarily military approach to insecurity challenges is inadequate and not the correct path for attaining peace and development. Furthermore, fragmented, untransparent and unharmonized peace processes will impede considerably sustainable solutions to the existing conflicts in Africa.
Worse is that Russia’s strengths expressed through military partnerships fall short of what is needed to address the complexities and scale of the problems facing those African countries. Moscow certainly has not shown enough commitment to comprehensive peacebuilding programs, security sector reforms, state-building, and improvement to governance and the rule of law.
Surely, African countries have to begin to re-evaluate their relationship with Russia. African leaders should not expect anything tangible from meetings, conferences and summits. Since the first Russia-Africa summit held in 2019, very little has been achieved. Nevertheless, not everything is perfect. There is some high optimism that efforts might gain ground. The comprehensive summit declaration, at least, offers a clear strategic roadmap for building relations.
At this point, it is even more improbable that Moscow would commit financial resources to invest in economic sectors, given the stringent sanctions imposed following Putin’s invasion of Ukraine. The impact of sanctions and the toll of the war on the Russian economy is likely to see Moscow redirect its practical attention towards ensuring stability within its borders and periphery.
Notwithstanding its aim of working in this emerging new multipolar world with Africa, Russia’s influence is still comparatively marginal, and its policy tools are extremely limited relative to other international actors, including China and Western countries such as France, European Union members, and the United States. This article was also published at Geopolitical Monitor.com
By Kestér Kenn Klomegâh
The Centre for Transition Economy Studies of the Institute for African Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences held a two-day scientific conference under the theme: “Industrial Development Strategies of African Countries” on March 18-19. The conference was opened by Professor Irina Abramova, Director of the Institute for African Studies. More than 40 researchers and experts from Russia, South Africa, Nigeria, Egypt and North Macedonia took part in the event.
The conference focused on a wide range of significant issues related to Africa’s industrial development, the modernisation of the African production base, and the potential for Russian-African cooperation. The in-person part of the conference focused on the development of the manufacturing and extractive industries, special economic zones, energy and transport infrastructure, digitalisation, and the agro-industrial complex. The second day of the conference was conducted as an online discussion in English, featuring African colleagues on the localisation of production chains in Africa, covering both agricultural and mineral processing.
Topics of the Conference included:
- Continental, regional and national programs and plans of industrial development in Africa. Prospects of continental and regional production chains.
- Study of the manufacturing market in African countries: manufacturing and agro-industrial complexes
- Energy, transport, and digitalisation: necessary infrastructure for industrial development.
- Interests of Multinational Corporations in Africa: conditions, forms of activities and geographical distribution. The role of free economic zones.
- Government policy regarding Multinational Corporations and control over export-import flows.
- The role of international organisations and activities of external actors.
- Possible areas and prospects for expanding mutually beneficial cooperation for Russian companies in Africa.
Experts in African studies from Russia, as well as representatives of the Russian government and business circles involved in trade and economic cooperation with African countries, actively participated. One of the significant outputs presented at the plenary session of the conference was the full-text on the African Development Strategy database created by Professors D. A. Degterev and A. D. Novikov, together with the staff of the IAS. The database covers more than 400 official strategic planning documents across 53 countries on the continent for the period 1997–2025. It systematises them under six thematic areas: long-term and medium-term development strategies, industrial policy, ICT, agriculture and the water sector.
The plenary session featured nine reports covering key dimensions of Africa’s industrial development. There were issues of trade and industrial potential of the continent that were highlighted in the report on the export specificity of African machine-building industries: based on ITC Trade Map data (2019–2024) that shows duties of South Africa, Tunisia, and industrial production, including on intracontinental markets.
Institutional mechanisms of Russian-African economic cooperation were reviewed in the report on the activities of Intergovernmental Commissions: the number of these ICC increased from four (4) in 2023 to nine (9) in 2025, and the volume of investment funds to support African projects is planned to increase, at least, to Rouble 5 billion for 2026–2027.
The conceptual dimension of financing industrialisation was presented through a critique of universal Western narratives and the justification for the need for an “application finance strategy”—a country model that takes into account the economy of Africa. Practical aspects of Russia’s investment presence in Africa are characterized on the example of projects in the countries of the Alliance of Sahel States (AES) with an emphasis on the specific risks of the subregion (DM Sinitsyn, VEB.RF). Digitalisation and artificial intelligence development in sub-Saharan African countries were also analysed and presented at the conference.
Russian-African cooperation in the field of technologies and education was covered in the reports on the transfer of agrobiotechnologies through the Afro-Russian Centre for Technology Development in Kampala, within which, in 2025/2026, this period, in which concretely 467 citizens of African countries were trained in Russian universities (NA Goncharova, FGBU “Agroexport”).
The competitive struggle of foreign players for African markets and the possibilities of Russian participation were considered in the reports on the position of the continent on the world energy markets, supplies of ground vehicles, and activities of pharmaceuticals for Africa. The digital dimension of industrialisation was covered by the reports on the cyber potential of West Africa, the formation of data processing centres in the industrial strategy of South Africa, and the digitalisation strategies of Algeria and Morocco.
The theme of most speeches, at the conference, became a reflection on the ‘disconnection’ between the proclaimed goals of industrialisation and the actual structure of African economies: despite the widespread proliferation of pre-national strategic documents, industries in the continent’s total GDP has not exceeded 10–12% for more than two decades, and exports still comprise mainly unprocessed raw materials.
In this regard, a number of reports justify the need to transition from external financial models formed by international organisations to sovereign country strategies based on state political, industrial and human resources. Global South—including, to deepen Russian-African cooperation in the spheres of technology, education and investment.
A collective monograph is, however, planned for publication following the conference. The event included the presentation of the full-text database on African development strategies, prepared by the team of the Institute for African Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences.
By Aduragbemi Omiyale
A court in Paris, France, has found notable French cement manufacturer, Lafarge, and eight of its former employees guilty of terrorism financing.
Delivering the judgment on Monday, Judge Isabelle Prevost-Desprez held that Lafarge paid some members of the Islamic State (IS or ISIS) in Syria about $6.5 million (€5.59 million; £4.83 million) between 2013 and 2014 to protect its plant operating in northern Syria.
The court said this action provided oxygen for the terror group to operate and carry out its violent acts.
The former chief executive of the company, Mr Bruno Lafont, was also found complicit and has been sentenced to six years.
“It is clear to the court that the sole purpose of the funding of a terrorist organisation was to keep the Syrian plant running for economic reasons. Payments to terrorist entities enabled Lafarge to continue its operations,” the judge said, adding that, “These payments took the form of a genuine commercial partnership with IS.”
The factory in Jalabiya, northern Syria, was bought by Lafarge in 2008 for $680 million and began operations in 2010, months before the civil war began in March 2011, following opposition to then-president Bashar al-Assad’s brutal repression of anti-government protests.
ISIS jihadists seized large swathes of Syria and neighbouring Iraq in 2014, declaring a so-called cross-border “caliphate” and implementing their brutal interpretation of Islamic law.
To keep its plant running and protect its employees, Lafarge, between 2013 and September 2014, paid about €800,000 to secure safe passage and €1.6 million to purchase source materials from quarries under the control of the jihadist groups.
According to the BBC, Lafarge acknowledged the court’s finding, which it said “concerns a legacy matter involving conduct that occurred more than a decade ago and was in flagrant violation of Lafarge’s code of conduct,” describing the decision as an “important milestone” in the company’s actions to “address this legacy matter responsibly.”
By Adedapo Adesanya
African Export-Import Bank (Afreximbank) has posted a robust financial performance for the 2025 financial year, with total assets and contingencies climbing to $48.5 billion.
This further shows its growing influence in financing trade and development across Africa and the Caribbean.
The Cairo-based multilateral lender, in its audited results released on April 9, reported a 21 per cent surge in total assets from $40.1 billion in 2024, underscoring sustained balance sheet expansion despite global economic headwinds and rating concerns.
Net loans and advances rose by 16 per cent to $33.5 billion, driven by strong disbursements into critical sectors including manufacturing, infrastructure, food security and climate adaptation, areas seen as pivotal to Africa’s long-term economic resilience.
Profitability remained strong, with net income climbing 19 per cent to $1.2 billion, up from $973.5 million in the previous year. Gross income also edged higher by 6.06 per cent to $3.5 billion, reflecting steady revenue growth supported by the bank’s expanding portfolio of trade finance and advisory services.
Afreximbank maintained solid asset quality, with its non-performing loan (NPL) ratio at 2.43 per cent, broadly stable compared to 2.33 per cent in 2024. This performance highlights disciplined risk management even as lending volumes increased across diverse markets.
Liquidity remained a key strength. Cash and cash equivalents rose significantly to $6.0 billion from $4.6 billion, while liquid assets accounted for 14 per cent of total assets, comfortably above the bank’s internal minimum threshold of 10 per cent.
Shareholders’ funds grew 17 per cent to $8.4 billion, supported by the strong profit outturn and fresh equity inflows of $299.4 million under its General Capital Increase II programme. The bank’s capital adequacy ratio stood at 23 per cent, well above regulatory benchmarks, providing a solid buffer for future growth.
Operating expenses increased to $459.2 million from $367.7 million, reflecting staff expansion and inflationary pressures. However, Afreximbank retained cost discipline, with a cost-to-income ratio of 21 per cent, still significantly below its 30 per cent ceiling.
The bank successfully tapped international capital markets, raising over $800 million through Samurai and Panda bond issuances in Japan and China during the year. The move helped counter concerns raised by some rating agencies and reaffirmed Afreximbank’s strong funding access and credibility.
Commenting on the results, Senior Executive Vice President, Mrs Denys Denya, said the performance reflects resilience and strategic execution amid a challenging global environment.
“Despite continuing global geopolitical challenges and disruptions caused by some rating actions, the Group delivered excellent financial performance in 2025,” he said.
He noted that the results cap a decade of transformative leadership under the erstwhile President, Mr Benedict Oramah, with the bank already ahead of most targets under its Sixth Strategic Plan, which runs through 2026.
Mr Denya added that newer subsidiaries, including the Fund for Export Development in Africa (FEDA) and AfrexInsure, are now profitable, contributing to earnings growth and strengthening the group’s diversified structure.
“The Group’s balance sheet is at its strongest level ever, with liquidity levels and capitalisation well above target and good asset quality,” he said.
Afreximbank said it is entering the 2026 financial year with strong momentum, positioning itself to scale impact, deepen trade integration and drive value addition across “Global Africa.”
Return metrics remained stable, with return on average equity at 15 per cent and return on average assets improving slightly to 3.04 per cent, signalling efficient use of capital.
With a fortified balance sheet, rising profitability and sustained investor confidence, Afreximbank said it is firmly on track to consolidate its role as a key engine of trade-led growth across the continent.
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