Connect with us

Economy

Exchange Rate Convergence Will Benefit Capital Market—Oyedele

Published

on

Taiwo Oyedele exchange rate convergence

By Adedapo Adesanya

The Fiscal Policy Partner and Africa Tax Leader at consultancy giant, PwC, Mr Taiwo Oyedele, has said the exchange rate convergence in Nigeria would translate to a significant rise in government debt in Naira terms by about N12 trillion to N90 trillion.

In a social media post, the tax expert said with the Naira now exchanging with the US Dollar market-determined rates across the market segments, a significant market distortion has been removed.

He added this would come with both positive and negative implications, noting that the country’s external debt at $42 billion, according to the Debt Management Office (DMO), will increase by the difference between the old and new rates.

He stated that this would also raise the nation’s debt-to-GDP ratio by about 5 per cent, with a corresponding increase in debt service cost with respect to foreign debt service.

Currently, Nigeria services debt with about 96 per cent of its earning, meaning for every N1 it earns, 96 Kobo is used to pay interest to its debtors.

He also noted that this would translate to an increase in government revenue in Naira terms resulting in a higher tax/revenue to GDP ratio.

However, “Corporate tax collection may, however, decline as many businesses crystallize forex losses due to the higher exchange rate,” he warned, adding that the collapse of the multiple rates regime, as instructed by multilateral lenders, could lead to a possible reduction in the budget deficit.

This will occur if the government’s forex revenue exceeds foreign currency obligations. On the flip side, an increase in budget deficit will arise.

For the average Nigerian, petrol prices will rise in the coming days as the pump price of petrol could inch closer to the current pump price of diesel, which is already deregulated.

He advised that there should be some cost savings as government discontinues the various fx interventions —Naira4Dollar and RT200 Rebate Scheme — which cost tens of billions of Naira, stressing that Nigeria must attract fx inflows, especially from portfolio investors, FDI and exporters proceeds.

“Impact on diaspora remittances would be marginal,” he predicted.

He also noted that the capital market would benefit as it is likely to appreciate further as foreign investors take position. The Nigerian stock market had appreciated on Monday and Tuesday but eased multi-year highs on Wednesday.

“There should be negligible impact on the general prices of goods and services as products already factored in parallel market rates to a large extent,” he added.

He tasked that while the move was positive, the Bola Tinubu administration needed to manage the dynamics to restore confidence.

“The backlog of forex demands needs to be addressed, and government should be ready to supply forex to stabilise the exchange rate in the short term.”

He further advised them to relax capital control and administrative bottlenecks, including unbanning the list of items prohibited for fx (and complementing with higher import duties).

He also advised the removal of the need for a certificate of capital importation to prevent the parallel market rate from simply moving further away from the official market rate.

“Stop the demand for certain taxes and levies in foreign currency, it creates unnecessary fx demand without adding to supply.

“The aggregate demand for fx across markets should reduce as a round-tripping incentive is removed, for instance, people who fake foreign travels just to get FX at discounted rates.

“Also, Nigeria’s sovereign credit rating should improve if this is complemented with the right fiscal and monetary policies, thereby attracting more fx inflows and lowering the cost of borrowing,” he added.

Adedapo Adesanya is a journalist, polymath, and connoisseur of everything art. When he is not writing, he has his nose buried in one of the many books or articles he has bookmarked or simply listening to good music with a bottle of beer or wine. He supports the greatest club in the world, Manchester United F.C.

Economy

Insurance Firms Must Submit 2025 Assessment Returns by May 31—NAICOM

Published

on

NAICOM Conplaint Management Portal

By Adedapo Adesanya

The National Insurance Commission has issued new guidelines for the collection, management, and administration of the Insurance Policyholders’ Protection Fund.

In a circular issued to all insurance institutions on Tuesday, the regulator also set May 31, 2026, as the deadline for insurers to submit their assessment returns for the 2025 financial year.

Recall that on August
 5, 2025, 
President Bola Tinubu signed
 into 
law
 the 
Nigerian 
Insurance 
Industry Reform 
Act (
NIIRA
2025).


This 
landmark legislation 
repeals 
the 
Insurance 
Act 
2003, 
and
 consolidates 
related 
provisions, 
ushering 
in 
a 
modern regulatory framework. It lays a strong foundation for sustainable growth and increased investment in the country’s insurance sector.

The commission said the guidelines were issued in exercise of its powers under the 2025 Act and other existing insurance laws and regulations to provide regulatory clarity, improve guidance, and ensure ease of compliance across the industry.

According to NAICOM, the guidelines establish a comprehensive structure for the operation of the IPPF, which serves as a statutory safety net to protect insurance policyholders in the event of distress or insolvency of a licensed insurer or reinsurer. The framework also provides direction on the reimbursement of loans by insurers and reinsurers.

NAICOM stated, “The guidelines ensure regulatory clarity, guidance and ease of compliance, as it provides a comprehensive regulatory framework for the collection, management, and administration of the Fund, which serves as a statutory safety net designed to protect insurance policyholders against distress and insolvency of a licensed insurer or reinsurer, including guidance for the reimbursement of loans by an insurer or reinsurer.

“Please be informed that the IPPF Assessment Returns in respect of the year 2025 shall be submitted to the Commission not later than 31st May 2026, while subsequent submissions shall be in line with Section 4.3 of the Guideline on Insurance Policyholders Protection Fund.”

Continue Reading

Economy

Dangote Refinery Sells Petrol at N1,200/L as Global Oil Prices Slump

Published

on

Dangote refinery import petrol

By Adedapo Adesanya

The Dangote Refinery on Wednesday returned the petrol price to N1,200 per litre, less than 24 hours after it increased it by 5 per cent.

The private refinery had raised the ex-depot price by N75 on Tuesday, citing pressure from volatile global oil markets, but quickly brought it back to N1,200 per litre from N1,275 per litre.

The swift downward review is directly linked to a sharp drop in international crude prices. Brent crude has plunged to $95.05 per barrel, after a 13 per cent decline, while the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude closed at $97.18, recording nearly a 14 per cent drop.

This development comes after US President Donald Trump announced a conditional two-week ceasefire with Iran, which eased fears of immediate supply disruptions in the global oil market.

“This will be a double-sided CEASEFIRE!” Trump said on social media, marking a sharp reversal from his earlier warning that “a whole civilisation will die tonight” if Iran failed to comply with US demands.

Iran’s Foreign Minister, Mr Abbas Araqchi, confirmed that the country would halt attacks provided strikes against Iran cease and transit through the Strait of Hormuz is coordinated by Iranian forces.

Despite the breakthrough, tensions remain elevated across the region, with several Gulf states reporting missile launches, drone activity, or issuing civil defence warnings.

While oil prices have fallen back below $100, they remain significantly elevated after surging by a record amount in March. Market analysts noted that regardless of how successful the ceasefire is, geopolitical risk related to the Strait of Hormuz is likely to remain elevated for the foreseeable future under the control of Iran.

Continue Reading

Economy

Crude Deliveries Double to Dangote Refinery in Mix of Naira, Dollar Supply

Published

on

Dangote refinery petrol

By Adedapo Adesanya

Crude oil deliveries from the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) Limited to the Dangote Petroleum Refinery doubled in March, boosting prospects for improved fuel availability.

This was revealed by the chief executive of Dangote Industries Limited, Mr Aliko Dangote, on Tuesday, when he received the Deputy Secretary-General of the United Nations, Mrs Amina Mohammed, at the industrial complex in Ibeju-Lekki, Lagos.

While speaking on feedstock supply, Mr Dangote commended the NNPC for increasing crude deliveries to the refinery in March, noting that volumes rose to 10 cargoes—six supplied in Naira and four in Dollars—to support domestic fuel availability, according to a statement by the Refinery.

“Last month, they gave us six cargoes for Naira and four cargoes for Dollars,” he said.

Despite the improvement, Mr Dangote noted that the supply remains below the 19 cargoes required for optimal operations, with the refinery continuing to bridge the gap through imports from the United States and other African producers.

He also expressed concern over the unwillingness of international oil companies operating in Nigeria to sell to the refinery, stating that their preference for selling crude to traders forces it to repurchase at higher costs, with broader implications for the economy.

Mr Dangote added that the refinery is seeking increased access to domestically priced crude under local currency arrangements as part of efforts to moderate fuel costs and enhance long-term energy and food security across the continent.

On her part, Mrs Mohammed underscored the strategic importance of Dangote Industries Limited -particularly Dangote Fertiliser Limited—in addressing Africa’s mounting food security challenges, while calling for stronger global partnerships to scale its impact.

Mrs Mohammed said the United Nations would prioritise amplifying scalable solutions capable of mitigating the continent’s food crisis, describing Dangote’s integrated industrial model as a critical pathway.

“I think the UN’s job here is to amplify and to put visibility on the possibilities of mitigating a food security crisis, and this is one of them,” she said. “I hope that when we go back, we can continue to engage partners and countries that should collaborate with Dangote Industries.”

Continue Reading

Trending