Economy
Exchange Rate Convergence Will Benefit Capital Market—Oyedele
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Fiscal Policy Partner and Africa Tax Leader at consultancy giant, PwC, Mr Taiwo Oyedele, has said the exchange rate convergence in Nigeria would translate to a significant rise in government debt in Naira terms by about N12 trillion to N90 trillion.
In a social media post, the tax expert said with the Naira now exchanging with the US Dollar market-determined rates across the market segments, a significant market distortion has been removed.
He added this would come with both positive and negative implications, noting that the country’s external debt at $42 billion, according to the Debt Management Office (DMO), will increase by the difference between the old and new rates.
He stated that this would also raise the nation’s debt-to-GDP ratio by about 5 per cent, with a corresponding increase in debt service cost with respect to foreign debt service.
Currently, Nigeria services debt with about 96 per cent of its earning, meaning for every N1 it earns, 96 Kobo is used to pay interest to its debtors.
He also noted that this would translate to an increase in government revenue in Naira terms resulting in a higher tax/revenue to GDP ratio.
However, “Corporate tax collection may, however, decline as many businesses crystallize forex losses due to the higher exchange rate,” he warned, adding that the collapse of the multiple rates regime, as instructed by multilateral lenders, could lead to a possible reduction in the budget deficit.
This will occur if the government’s forex revenue exceeds foreign currency obligations. On the flip side, an increase in budget deficit will arise.
For the average Nigerian, petrol prices will rise in the coming days as the pump price of petrol could inch closer to the current pump price of diesel, which is already deregulated.
He advised that there should be some cost savings as government discontinues the various fx interventions —Naira4Dollar and RT200 Rebate Scheme — which cost tens of billions of Naira, stressing that Nigeria must attract fx inflows, especially from portfolio investors, FDI and exporters proceeds.
“Impact on diaspora remittances would be marginal,” he predicted.
He also noted that the capital market would benefit as it is likely to appreciate further as foreign investors take position. The Nigerian stock market had appreciated on Monday and Tuesday but eased multi-year highs on Wednesday.
“There should be negligible impact on the general prices of goods and services as products already factored in parallel market rates to a large extent,” he added.
He tasked that while the move was positive, the Bola Tinubu administration needed to manage the dynamics to restore confidence.
“The backlog of forex demands needs to be addressed, and government should be ready to supply forex to stabilise the exchange rate in the short term.”
He further advised them to relax capital control and administrative bottlenecks, including unbanning the list of items prohibited for fx (and complementing with higher import duties).
He also advised the removal of the need for a certificate of capital importation to prevent the parallel market rate from simply moving further away from the official market rate.
“Stop the demand for certain taxes and levies in foreign currency, it creates unnecessary fx demand without adding to supply.
“The aggregate demand for fx across markets should reduce as a round-tripping incentive is removed, for instance, people who fake foreign travels just to get FX at discounted rates.
“Also, Nigeria’s sovereign credit rating should improve if this is complemented with the right fiscal and monetary policies, thereby attracting more fx inflows and lowering the cost of borrowing,” he added.
By Adedapo Adesanya
Ellah Lakes Plc has announced plans to launch a public offer as part of its broader capital-raising strategy, following a signing ceremony held on November 5, 2025.
During a press briefing, the company highlighted its strategic repositioning efforts, operational progress, and long-term growth objectives within Nigeria’s agro-industrial value chain.
The company disclosed that it would undertake a N235 billion capital raise in 2025, with proceeds targeted at acquiring a significant agricultural asset.
The acquisition is expected to expand Ellah Lakes’ production capacity, diversify revenue streams, and support its transition from a restructuring phase to a full-scale growth and expansion cycle.
The company’s leadership highlighted Ellah Lakes’ distinctive, multi-dimensional positioning strategy across Nigeria’s agricultural landscape. With over 30,000 hectares of land assets spanning Enugu, Edo, Ekiti, and Ondo States, the company is geographically diversified, capturing varied climatic advantages essential for its multi-crop operations.
Speaking on the plan, the chief executive of Ellah Lakes, Mr Chuka Mordi, stated, “This N235 billion capital raise is a definitive statement of intent. It is our commitment to our shareholders to deliver economies of scale, market resilience, and long-term value creation. We are confident that by deploying this capital effectively and executing our clear strategy, Ellah Lakes will solidify its position as the undisputed leading indigenous agro-industrial giant in West Africa.”
A key focus of the listing of the additional shares is the company’s successful execution of its vertical integration strategy. The commissioning of its 6-ton-per-hour Crude Palm Oil (CPO) mill is a strategic move designed to build a more robust and scalable revenue model less vulnerable to external supply chain disruptions.
Furthermore, Ellah Lakes said it has bolstered its resilience through diversified revenue streams, combining long-term oil palm investments with medium-term cassava cultivation and more immediate revenue from its piggery operations.
Ellah Lakes, as a company, carries out carefully sequenced capital raises and targeted mergers & acquisitions (M&A) that have progressively rebuilt and strengthened its agro-industrial platform. This includes the pivotal 2019 reverse acquisition by Telluria Limited, which integrated valuable oil palm assets and expertise, laying the foundation for vertical integration, as well as its recent announcement of the acquisition of a 100 per cent shareholding in Agro-Allied Resources & Processing Nigeria Limited (ARPN).
The acquired assets included 11,783 hectares of cultivated land, 2093 hectares of cassava plantations, and an additional 10,393 hectares of uncultivated land.
Speaking on the ARPN acquisition, Mr Paul Farrer, Deputy Managing Director of Ellah Lakes Plc, said: “This acquisition marked a pivotal moment for Ellah Lakes as we strengthen our foothold in Nigeria’s agribusiness sector. Agro-Allied Resources & Processing Nigeria Limited (ARPN) brings a robust land bank and operational assets that align perfectly with our vision of vertical integration and sustainable growth.
“The ARPN acquisition will deliver immediate scale and financial benefits, achieving in months what would have taken years organically, while unlocking significant long-term potential for crop diversification & vertical integration. This will deliver value to all stakeholders as it delivers operational and financial scale immediately”
Also, prudent subsequent financing, such as the 2023 N2.9 billion rights issue and the late 2024 debt-to-equity conversion, has strengthened the balance sheet and provided the necessary liquidity to secure the 30,000+ hectares and commission the CPO mill.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The NASD Over-the-Counter (OTC) Securities Exchange rose by 0.96 per cent on Thursday, November 6, as the market capitalisation added N20.72 billion in value to close at N2.189 trillion from the N2.168 trillion, and the NASD Unlisted Security Index (NSI) increased by 35.13 points to 3,658.56 points from 3,623.43 points.
During the session, Okitipupa Plc led the gainers with a N21.45 growth to end at N237.00 per share compared with the previous day’s N215.55 per share, NASD Plc improved its value by N4.88 to sell at N53.68 per unit versus N48.80 per unit, and Food Concepts Plc recorded a 32 Kobo gain to finish at N3.53 per share compared with the N3.21 per unit it closed at midweek.
On the flip side, Air Liquide Plc lost N1.01 to quote at N9.10 per share compared with the N10.11 per share it ended on Wednesday and Geo-Fluids Plc dropped 15 Kobo to settle at N4.20 per unit versus N4.35 per unit.
Yesterday, the volume of securities traded fell by 57.9 per cent to 221,284 units from the 526,165 units recorded a day earlier, but the value of securities went up by 24.9 per cent to N11.9 million from N9.6 million, and the number of deals soared by 4.8 per cent to 22 deals from 21 deals.
At the close of trades, Infrastructure Credit Guarantee Company (InfraCredit) Plc was the most traded stock by value with a year-to-date sale of 5.8 billion units valued at N16.4 billion, followed by Okitipupa Plc with 170.3 million units transacted for N8.0 billion, and Air Liquide Plc with 507.4 million units worth N4.2 billion.
InfraCredit Plc was also the most traded stock by volume on a year-to-date basis with 5.8 billion units worth N16.4 billion, trailed by Industrial and General Insurance (IGI) Plc with the sale of 1.2 billion units for N419.7 million, and Impresit Bakolori Plc with 536.9 million units traded for N524.9 million.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Naira appreciated against the US Dollar in the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEX) on Thursday, November 6, reversing the loss from the preceding session.
During the trading day, it gained N1.75 or 0.12 per cent on the greenback to close at N1,436.74/$1 compared with the N1,438.49/$1 it was sold in the previous session.
However, the Nigerian Naira extended losses against the Pound Sterling, but appreciated against the Euro in the official forex market on Thursday, losing N8.78 against the British currency to trade at N1,882.56/£1 versus the preceding session’s N1,873.78/£1 and improved its value against the Euro by N6.32 to settle at N1,651.39/€1, in contrast to the N1,657.71/€1 it was exchanged in the previous session.
The domestic currency maintained stability against the Dollar at GTBank yesterday at N1,446/$1 and closed flat in the parallel market at N1,450/$1.
The Naira reversed its trend as its $2.35 billion Eurobond was oversubscribed by 477 per cent as investors took advantage of signals like falling interest rates, moderating inflation, and fiscal reforms.
The domestic currency is projected to trade stronger, with the $13 billion Eurobond raises providing additional support for the local currency outlook, which come as the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) continues to intervene in the market and potency of the threats from the US government wanes.
“We expect market stability to depend on global oil prices, continued CBN FX interventions, and overall investor sentiment—particularly the Federal Government’s response to President Trump’s comments on attacks in Nigeria and his threats of possible military action or aid suspension.
“However, strong external reserves and expectations of sustained high crude oil prices are also expected to provide additional support to the Naira,” AIICO Capital Limited said in a report.
In the cryptocurrency market, there were sell-offs as macroeconomic concerns continued to impact tokens led by Ripple (XRP) which lost 4.3 per cent to close at $2.22, followed by Bitcoin (BTC), which fell by 1.5 per cent to $101,829.00, and Solana (SOL), which depreciated by 1.4 per cent to $156.92, with Ethereum (ETH) down by 1.2 per cent to $3,346.96.
However, Litecoin (LTC) gained 2.7 per cent to sell at $89.46, Binance Coin (BNB) appreciated by 2.5 per cent to $964.67, Cardano (ADA) grew by 1.2 per cent to $0.5422, and Dogecoin (DOGE) expanded by 1.2 per cent to $0.1656, while the US Dollar Tether (USDT) and the US Dollar Coin (USDC) remained at $1.00 each.
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