Economy
KPMG Lowers Nigeria’s Economic Growth Forecast to 2.65%
By Adedapo Adesanya
The local subsidiary of the global consultancy firm, KPMG Nigeria, has cut down its forecast for Nigeria’s economic growth rate for this year.
In its Flashnotes for August 2023, the firm now put Nigeria’s expected growth at 2.65 per cent, in contrast to an initial forecast of 2.85 per cent, the consultancy said in its latest commentary.
This came as the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) released the country’s GDP for the three months through June (Q2 2023).
In the KPMG report signed by its chief economist (a former head of the NBS), Mr Yemi Kale, the downward review of the projection was done after it figured out that the country could not attain the estimated target initially set amid headwinds in the economy, including subsidy regime and a weakening of the Naira, which has shot up the Dollar exchange rate.
It also blamed muted government investment in the economy in Q2 and Q3 2023, with the new administrations at the federal and state levels settling in Q3 2023.
KPMG noted that the country needed a minimum 3.3 per cent growth for the second half of the year to keep alive the dream of 2.9 per cent growth for 2023.
“Q2 2023 is the quarter where the impact of subsidy removal, FX unification, and other reforms of the new administration had its major impact on squeezing household consumption demand and firms’ costs of operations as well as reduced private investment,” it said.
According to the NBS, Nigeria’s GDP expansion rate grew to 2.51 per cent in Q2, affected by further drops in oil production level and a host of economic reforms that are taking their toll on disposable income and compounding a cost-of-living crisis.
Growth was driven by the services sector, which grew by 4.42 per cent. The agricultural sector reversed its first Quarter 2023 contraction, growing by 1.50 per cent compared to -0.90 per cent in Q1 2023 and 1.20 per cent in Q2 2022.
Industry, which had reversed its seven-quarter-long contraction, growing by 0.31 per cent in Q1 2023, returned to contraction in Q2 2023, recording -1.94 per cent. Accordingly, the non-oil grew by 3.58 per cent in Q2 2023, compared to 2.77 per cent in Q1 2023, while the oil sector, which has contracted since Q1 2020, further declined by -13.43 per cent in Q2 2023 compared to -4.21 per cent in Q1 2023 and -11.77 per cent in Q2 2022.
KPMG expects oil production in Nigeria, the continent’s top producer, to shrink tighter in August and September as it did in July.
“If this trend continues for the remaining two months of Q3 2023, we will have a situation where non-oil sector growth and oil sector growth underperform,” the report noted.
“Finally, with rising inflation in the first month of Q3 2023 and our expectation of further increases in inflation for the rest of the year, the pressure on nominal to real GDP will be higher, thereby curtailing higher real GDP growth in Q3 2023,” it added.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The NASD Over-the-Counter (OTC) Securities Exchange fell by 0.29 per cent on Thursday, April 16, after two securities plunged at the close of business, offsetting the gains recorded by three securities.
According to data, the NASD Unlisted Security Index (NSI) went down by 11.11 points to close at 3,862.98 points compared with the previous day’s 3,874.09 points, and the market capitalisation shrank by N6.64 billion to close at N2.311 trillion compared with the previous day’s N2.317 trillion.
Yesterday, FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc declined by N1.36 to trade at N97.64 per share versus Wednesday’s closing price of N99.00 per share, and Central Securities Clearing System (CSCS) Plc slipped by N1.16 to sell at N58.00 per unit compared with the preceding day’s N59.16 per unit.
However, NASD Plc appreciated by N1.14 to N38.50 per share from N37.36 per share, UBN Property Plc improved its share price by 20 Kobo to close at N2.18 per unit versus N1.98 per unit, and Lighthouse Financials Plc added 6 Kobo to sell at 72 Kobo per share, in contrast to the 66 Kobo per share it was traded at midweek.
Trading data showed that the value of securities surged by 124.9 per cent to N64.9 million from N28.9 million, the volume of securities increased by 18.4 per cent to 597,775 units from 505,075 units, and the number of deals rose by 2.5 per cent to 41 deals from 40 deals.
At the close of business, Great Nigeria Insurance (GNI) Plc remained the most traded stock by value on a year-to-date basis with 3.4 billion units valued at N8.4 billion, followed by CSCS Plc with 58.8 million units exchanged for N3.9 billion, and Okitipupa Plc with 27.8 million units traded for N1.9 billion.
GNI Plc was also the most traded stock by volume on a year-to-date basis with 3.4 billion units worth N8.4 billion, trailed by Resourcery Plc with 1.1 billion units sold for N415.7 million, and Infrastructure Guarantee Credit Plc with 400 million units transacted for N1.2 billion.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The value of the Naira improved against the United States Dollar in the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEX) by N1.44 or 0.11 per cent on Thursday, April 16, to N1,342.30/$1 from Wednesday’s N1,343.74/$1.
In the same vein, the domestic currency appreciated against the Pound Sterling in the official market during the session by N3.56 to close at N1,819.36/£1 compared with the previous rate of N1,822.92/£1, and against the Euro, it gained N3.99 to trade at N1,581.09/€1, in contrast to the N1,585.08/€1 it was traded at midweek.
At the black market segment, the Naira appreciated against the greenback yesterday by N5 to sell at N1,375/$1 versus the preceding session’s N1,380/$1, and at the GTBank FX desk, it improved by N16 to settle at N1,355/$1 compared with the previous day’s N1,371/$1.
The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) data revealed that NFEM interbank turnover decreased to N72.255 million across 82 deals on Thursday, from N114.347 million.
The relative appreciation of the official spot rate suggests there is no significant demand for foreign payments. Meanwhile, external reserves remain at $48.70 billion, down from the 2009 peak of $50 billion amidst uncertainties in the global commodities market.
The global market is looking at forthcoming peace talks between the US and Iran with hopes that it would resolve disruptions to Middle Eastern energy supplies caused by the ongoing war.
As for the cryptocurrency market, it recorded a mixed outcome, as traders weighed possible scenarios ahead of next week’s US-Iran cease-fire deadline.
The market is heavily short, raising the risk of a sharp short squeeze that some traders say could push prices toward $125,000 in the coming months.
Solana (SOL) appreciated by 2.4 per cent to $87.41, Ripple (XRP) jumped 1.5 per cent to $1.42, Cardano (ADA) rose 0.9 per cent to $0.2525, Binance Coin (BNB) increased by 0.5 per cent to $628.32, Dogecoin (DOGE) gained 0.3 per cent to finish at $0.0969, and TRON (TRX) expanded by 0.1 per cent to $0.3257.
On the flip side, Ethereum (ETH) depreciated by 1.6 per cent to $2,320.35, and Bitcoin (BTC) went down by 0.5 per cent to $74,677.83, while the US Dollar Tether (USDT) and the US Dollar Coin (USDC) remained unchanged at $1.00 apiece.
By Aduragbemi Omiyale
The 60-megawatt (MW) Independent Power Plant (IPP) in Yenagoa, Bayelsa State, commissioned about a week ago by President Bola Tinubu, will receive gas supply from Oando Plc.
The indigenous energy solutions provider secured this exclusive gas supply deal through its upstream Joint Venture (JV) with Nigerian National Petroleum Company E&P Limited (NEPL).
Under the agreement, the company will deliver 11.2 million standard cubic feet per day (11.2 MMSCFD) through the Elebele Valve Station, interconnected with a major trunkline, ensuring an uninterrupted feedstock supply to the power plant.
This supply is underpinned by a long-term gas supply arrangement, providing a stable and predictable revenue stream while supporting higher-value domestic gas monetisation and diversifying the JV’s revenue base, Oando said in a statement on Thursday.
The Bayelsa State IPP is expected to deliver stable electricity to tens of thousands of homes, alongside commercial and industrial users in Yenagoa and its environs, reducing reliance on self-generation and lowering end-user power costs.
The plant operates as a fully integrated system, combining gas supply, embedded generation, and a ring-fenced distribution network.
The reliance on Oando for gas supply to the facility underscores its commitment to strengthening Nigeria’s power sector.
This builds on a proven track record of delivering first-of-its-kind projects, including the development and operation of Nigeria’s first combined cycle power plant, the flagship Okpai IPP, Akute IPP in Ogun State, and the Alausa IPP in Lagos, one of the earliest embedded generation projects in the country.
“This project reflects our long-standing commitment to Bayelsa State and its people. By enhancing power reliability, we are helping to unlock new opportunities for businesses, improve living standards, and stimulate broader economic growth across the State.
“Our integrated approach, connecting gas to demand and delivering stable energy where it is needed most, ensures that development is both sustainable and inclusive. As one of the largest employers in Bayelsa, we are proud to deepen our contribution to the state’s progress,” the chief executive of Oando, Mr Wale Tinubu, stated.
The deal demonstrates the potential for gas-to-power developments across the JV’s infrastructure footprint, reinforcing Oando’s strategy to deepen participation in Nigeria’s domestic gas value chain.
It further highlights public-private collaboration as an effective model for infrastructure delivery, with scope for broader application across future developments in Nigeria.
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