Economy
KPMG Lowers Nigeria’s Economic Growth Forecast to 2.65%
By Adedapo Adesanya
The local subsidiary of the global consultancy firm, KPMG Nigeria, has cut down its forecast for Nigeria’s economic growth rate for this year.
In its Flashnotes for August 2023, the firm now put Nigeria’s expected growth at 2.65 per cent, in contrast to an initial forecast of 2.85 per cent, the consultancy said in its latest commentary.
This came as the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) released the country’s GDP for the three months through June (Q2 2023).
In the KPMG report signed by its chief economist (a former head of the NBS), Mr Yemi Kale, the downward review of the projection was done after it figured out that the country could not attain the estimated target initially set amid headwinds in the economy, including subsidy regime and a weakening of the Naira, which has shot up the Dollar exchange rate.
It also blamed muted government investment in the economy in Q2 and Q3 2023, with the new administrations at the federal and state levels settling in Q3 2023.
KPMG noted that the country needed a minimum 3.3 per cent growth for the second half of the year to keep alive the dream of 2.9 per cent growth for 2023.
“Q2 2023 is the quarter where the impact of subsidy removal, FX unification, and other reforms of the new administration had its major impact on squeezing household consumption demand and firms’ costs of operations as well as reduced private investment,” it said.
According to the NBS, Nigeria’s GDP expansion rate grew to 2.51 per cent in Q2, affected by further drops in oil production level and a host of economic reforms that are taking their toll on disposable income and compounding a cost-of-living crisis.
Growth was driven by the services sector, which grew by 4.42 per cent. The agricultural sector reversed its first Quarter 2023 contraction, growing by 1.50 per cent compared to -0.90 per cent in Q1 2023 and 1.20 per cent in Q2 2022.
Industry, which had reversed its seven-quarter-long contraction, growing by 0.31 per cent in Q1 2023, returned to contraction in Q2 2023, recording -1.94 per cent. Accordingly, the non-oil grew by 3.58 per cent in Q2 2023, compared to 2.77 per cent in Q1 2023, while the oil sector, which has contracted since Q1 2020, further declined by -13.43 per cent in Q2 2023 compared to -4.21 per cent in Q1 2023 and -11.77 per cent in Q2 2022.
KPMG expects oil production in Nigeria, the continent’s top producer, to shrink tighter in August and September as it did in July.
“If this trend continues for the remaining two months of Q3 2023, we will have a situation where non-oil sector growth and oil sector growth underperform,” the report noted.
“Finally, with rising inflation in the first month of Q3 2023 and our expectation of further increases in inflation for the rest of the year, the pressure on nominal to real GDP will be higher, thereby curtailing higher real GDP growth in Q3 2023,” it added.
By Dipo Olowookere
The Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited returned to green territory on Friday, closing higher by 0.10 per cent after investor sentiment turned bullish.
Business Post reports that the market breadth index was positive yesterday after the bourse ended with 29 appreciating equities and 21 depreciating equities.
Linkage Assurance gained 10.00 per cent to trade at N1.43, Livestock Feeds appreciated by 9.93 per cent to N8.41, Mutual Benefits jumped by 9.84 per cent to 67 Kobo, UBA soared by 5.75 per cent to N36.80, and Oando grew by 5.59 per cent to N51.00.
Conversely, Red Star Express lost 9.91 per cent to finish at N4.82, Learn Africa depreciated by 9.85 per cent to N3.02, FTN Cocoa declined by 9.43 per cent to N4.80, Coronation Insurance slumped by 9.39 per cent to N2.22, and Ikeja Hotel slipped by 9.35 per cent to N9.70.
Customs Street grew yesterday as a result of buying interest in banking equities, which dominated the activity chart, according to data from the bourse.
Fidelity Bank transacted 62.3 million shares for N1.1 billion, Access Holdings traded 38.3 million equities worth N843.7 million, Tantalizers sold 32.0 million stocks valued at N99.2 million, Veritas Kapital exchanged 31.4 million shares worth N38.4 million, and Zenith Bank traded 22.7 million equities valued at N1.1 billion.
At the close of trades, a total of 397.2 million stocks worth N14.2 billion exchanged hands in 10,099 deals compared with the 310.5 million stocks valued at N6.3 billion traded in 10,182 deals a day earlier, indicating a decline in the number of deals by 0.82 per cent, and the growth in the trading volume and value by 27.92 per cent and 125.40 per cent, respectively.
The industrial goods and commodity sectors remained unchanged during the session, the insurance and consumer goods indices tumbled by 0.49 per cent and 0.02 per cent apiece, while the energy and banking counters went up by 0.50 per cent and 0.12 per cent, respectively.
The bargain-hunting activities of the market participants lifted the All-Share Index (ASI) on Friday by 104.19 points to 104,962.96 points from 104,858.77 points and the market capitalisation increased by N66 billion to N65.820 trillion from N65.754 trillion.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The last trading session this week at the NASD Over-the-Counter (OTC) Securities Exchange ended on a negative note with a 0.44 per cent decline on Friday, March 21.
The market capitalisation of the OTC securities exchange went down by N8.67 billion to N1.939 trillion from N1.948 trillion and the NASD Unlisted Security Index (NSI) ended the session at 3,358.61 points after dropping 15.01 points from the preceding day’s 3,373.62 points.
Trading data showed an increase of 50.7 per cent in the volume of securities transacted to 304,188 units from the 201,873 units transacted in the previous trading day, the value of transactions surged by 1,214.8 per cent to N10.2 million from N776,509.51, and the number of deals rose by 88.2 per cent to 32 deals from 17 deals.
Yesterday, FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc lost N1.84 to trade at N37.17 per share versus Thursday’s closing price of N39.01 per share, Central Securities Clearing System (CSCS) Plc depreciated by N1.01 to sell at N22.84 per unit compared with the preceding day’s N213.85 per unit, and Afriland Properties Plc declined by 2 Kobo to close the day at N19.50 per share versus the previous session’s N19.52 per share.
At the close of trading activities, Impresit Bakolori Plc was the most active stock by volume on a year-to-date basis with 533.9 million units worth N520.9 million, followed by Industrial and General Insurance (IGI) Plc with a turnover of 69.9 million units valued at N23.7 million, and Geo Fluids Plc with 44.1 million units sold for N88.9 million.
Similarly, Impresit Bakolori Plc was the most active stock by value on a year-to-date basis with a turnover of 533.9 million units worth N520.9 million, trailed by FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc with the sale of 13.2 million units valued at N511.8 million, and Afriland Properties Plc with 17.6 million units sold for N360.1 million.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The value of the Naira depreciated against the US Dollar in the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEM) on Friday, March 21 by N2.72 or 0.18 per cent to settle at N1,537.05/$1 compared with the preceding day’s N1,534.33/1$.
In the same official FX market, the exchange rate of the Nigerian Naira and the Pound Sterling and the Euro remained unchanged at N1,972.89/£1 and N1,657.81/€1, respectively.
At the parallel market segment, the local currency tumbled against the Dollar during the trading session by N5 to trade at N1,590/$1 versus Thursday’s closing price of N1,585/$1.
The pressure on the market continued as the Dollar strengthened in the international market, making currencies like the Naira weaker.
The continuous downward trend of the Naira has raised concerns about the effectiveness of recent injections into the market even as the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) channeled more than $55 million into the banks during the week.
In the cryptocurrency market, most tokens as prices inversed with the wider financial markets, which are down on tariff worries and decreased corporate earnings.
On the regulatory front, the US government is moving towards a market structure bill that has been touted as historic.
Solana (SOL) appreciated by 1.2 per cent to sell at $129.31, Dogecoin (DOGE) rose by 0.9 per cent to $0.1692, Ethereum (ETH) went up by 0.9 per cent to $1,988.34, and Ripple (XRP) added 0.8 per cent to close at $2.40.
Further, Bitcoin (BTC) expanded by 0.6 per cent to $84,293.76, Binance Coin (BNB) increased by 0.4 per cent to $631.94, and Cardano jumped by 0.3 per cent to end at $0.7134.
On the flip side, Litecoin (LTC) went down by 1.8 per cent to $91.25, while the US Dollar Tether (USDT) and the US Dollar Coin (USDC) traded flat at $1.00 each.
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