Travel/Tourism
Investment Key to Future Growth for Global, African Aviation
The aviation sector’s recovery from COVID-19 has been remarkable, with revenue passenger kilometres (RPKs) and available seat kilometres (ASKs) reaching close to pre-pandemic levels, according to the International Air Transport Association (IATA). In the fourth quarter of 2023, traffic was at 98.2% of pre-pandemic numbers. Additionally, the sector is expected to experience record fleet and maintenance, repair, and overhaul (MRO) growth this year.
Oliver Wyman’s latest Global Fleet and MRO Market Forecast predicts that the number of commercial aircraft worldwide will expand at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 2.5%, reaching more than 36,400 aircraft by the start of 2034. This represents a 28% increase over the current fleet of around 28,400 aircraft. The forecast also indicates that global MRO spending is expected to reach US$104 billion, surpassing the pre-pandemic peak in 2020. That spending will still, however, fall short of demand. By 2034, MRO demand worldwide is projected to reach US$124 billion.
In Africa, the fleet is expected to grow about 25% by 2034, reaching over 1,400 aircraft. The largest growth is projected to occur between 2029 and 2034, with a CAGR of 2.7%. For example, South African Airways has announced plans to expand its fleet to approximately 40 aircraft over the next decade, from just 13 today.
“The growth in Africa reflects an expected expansion of demand. Figures from IATA show that African passenger numbers will nearly double by 2035. This will require airlines to continue to invest in expanding their fleet, as well as looking at new routes to add to their network,” says Paul Calvey, Oliver Wyman Partner and Head of its operations in South Africa.
But while the global and African numbers reflect growth, they fall short of pre-pandemic predictions. Before the pandemic, it was anticipated that the global aircraft fleet would reach 36,000 by 2030. Now, it is unlikely to reach that size before 2036, resulting in a six-year setback in industry growth due to COVID-19. From an African perspective, this slow recovery is particularly understandable. Several African airlines folded as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, and in 2020 alone, the continent’s aviation sector lost US$7.7 billion in revenue.
This highlights the magnitude of the setback caused by COVID-19. Additionally, the current global fleet size isn’t significantly higher than the 27,492 aircraft that were in service in 2019. To regain its previous trajectory, the aviation sector will require significant investment, much of which will depend on global economic growth.
Investment challenges in the aviation industry
The forecast identifies several challenges that hinder investment in the aviation sector. These include the impact of COVID-19, inflation, and shortages of skilled labour, raw materials, and aviation maintenance technicians (AMTs) and engineers. The industry must modernise and optimise production along the supply chain, while the MRO support network faces similar challenges in keeping aircraft operational.
“While the industry must invest in overcoming those challenges, it’s important to remember that it’s not easy for it to do so at present, according to a number of trends,” says André Martins, Partner and Head of Transportation and Services for India, Middle East, and Africa regions (IMEA) at Oliver Wyman.
He continues that “rapidly rising interest rates have made borrowing far more expensive than it was pre-pandemic. Mounting inflation, meanwhile, has created significant wage pressure across the industry. In the US, for instance, captains’ salaries at mainline airlines increased by 46% between 2020 and 2023, while those flying for US regional airlines saw their wages rise by 86%. Furthermore, this inflationary environment has led to higher costs for aircraft components and other supplies compared to before the pandemic.”
Other cost factors, such as escalating conflicts in the Middle East and attacks on ships in the Red Sea, have led to increased aviation fuel prices. Although prices are lower than in 2022, industry players remain cautious about potential further increases.
Gearing up for global growth
Despite the current challenges, there are indications that conditions may improve, facilitating investment in the aviation sector. While global economic growth is currently at its lowest level since the 1990s, the outlook is becoming more positive. Inflation is expected to ease, and the US economy is projected to experience a soft landing. Although major economies like China still face economic headwinds, the global economy is likely to avoid recession.
This positive outlook will eventually enable central banks to reduce interest rates, making borrowing cheaper and enabling crucial investments in the aviation sector.
“Investment is necessary not only to address labour and supply chain optimisation challenges but also to meet the increasing pressure for environmental sustainability. This includes investing in sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), which can significantly reduce emissions,” Martins says.
Maximising available opportunities
By maximising the available opportunities in Africa, such as collaboration on infrastructure development and investment in African airlines, the industry can not only recover but thrive in the coming years. Investors and policymakers also have a role to play in supporting sustainable growth through policies that incentivize investment in new technologies and skilled labour.
By Aduragbemi Omiyale
A travel card designed for tourists, business visitors, Diaspora returnees has been launched by Verve in partnership with Providus Bank.
Known as the ProvidusVerve Travel Card, the Naira-based travel card will allow inbound travellers to enjoy a smooth, secure, and convenient payment experience throughout their stay in Nigeria. It was powered by Verve’s secure.
Created to support the surge of tourists, expatriates, business visitors, conference delegates, and returning diaspora expected during the festive Detty December season, the ProvidusVerve Travel Card enables seamless payments for transportation, hotels, dining, shopping, entertainment, and everyday essentials nationwide.
The card also works on select global merchant platforms that accept Verve, including Netflix, Google Play, and other digital services, ensuring travellers enjoy uninterrupted access to familiar services.
The ProvidusVerve Travel Card eliminates the hassle of sourcing naira or converting foreign currency on arrival. It enables instant, secure transactions, reduces reliance on cash, and supports compliance with the cashless policy of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN).
It also mitigates the risks associated with carrying physical cash such as loss, theft, or fraud, offering a safe, regulation-aligned option for both online and in-person payments.
“The ProvidusVerve Travel Card is a timely solution for inbound travellers seeking reliability, security, and simplicity while navigating Nigeria.
“Together with Providus Bank, we have created a product that eliminates the friction traditionally associated with accessing local payments.
“Whether for tourism, business, or festive activities, this card ensures a smooth financial experience from the moment visitors land,” the Vice President for Issuing and Acquiring Management for Africa at Verve International, Mr Paul Ohakim, stated.
On his part, the Divisional Head for Product Management and Solution Delivery at Interswitch, Mr Ademola Adeniran, described the partnership as a reflection of “Verve’s commitment to designing products that respond to real user needs.”
“The ProvidusVerve Travel Card supports everyday experiences — from booking rides and hotels to shopping, streaming, and dining. It provides inbound travellers with a secure, compliant, digital-first way to experience Nigeria without financial barriers,” he added.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Minister of Aviation and Aerospace Development, Mr Festus Keyamo, has disclosed that the federal government may recover and sell the assets of Dana Air to refund passengers and travel agents whose funds remain trapped following the suspension of the airline’s operations.
The Minister disclosed this in Abuja on Tuesday at the Ministry’s fourth quarter stakeholders’ engagement to enhance governance for effective service delivery in aviation.
Speaking at the event themed “leveraging public feedback to drive excellence in aviation services, the Nigeria Civil Aviation Authority (NCAA) will be directed to probe why funds trapped by the airline are yet to be refunded.
He revealed that the authority suspended the operations of the airline as a matter of choice between safety and disaster.
“For Dana, the problem is that it was a choice between safety and disaster. So we didn’t take the commercial thing as priority. The priority was safety, and we all looked at the damning reports that we had met on the table.
“It was a decision of the NCAA to suspend them, but I pushed them to say, look, these are the reports we are seeing on the table about safety record, about lack of standards that put the lives of Nigerians at risk. If they continue flying, I don’t know whether most of us will be here. Many of us would have been victims of one of those flights. God forbid.”
According to him, “I have asked Najomo (NCAA director general) to dig deep to find out how those passengers and agents will be refunded. He has to dig deep on that.
“One solution will also be that if that same individual or those entities are trying to come back to aviation under any guise, whether to go and register a new AOC or use any business within the aviation sector, they have to go and settle their debts first.
“We should look at their assets. There are assets that are still available. Let them sell their assets. Let’s cannibalize their revenue and pay people. Let’s find a way to go after their assets and get money to pay Nigerians who are owed.
“NCAA should do that because they can’t get away with it.”
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Nigerian Civil Aviation Authority (NCAA) said it has imposed a N5 million penalty on Qatar Airways for consumer protection violations.
The announcement was made on Wednesday by the NCAA’s Director of Public Affairs & Consumer Protection, Mr Michael Achimugu, on X, adding that there may be other sanctions depending on how the airline treats other cases.
“Glad to announce that, today, the NCAA has sanctioned @qatarairways to the tune of five million naira being penalty for consumer protection-related infractions. In addition, the letters of investigation (LOI) written to the airline over other cases may lead to further sanctions if not treated satisfactorily,” Mr Achimugu wrote.
The fine followed an incident when a Nigerian passenger was accused by a Qatar Airways cabin crew member of sexual harassment during boarding in Lagos for a flight to the United States via Doha, Qatar.
The allegation was only reported in Doha, where the passenger was arrested, detained for 18 hours, fined, and compelled to sign a document written solely in Arabic.
Qatar Airways allegedly refused to continue his journey, forcing him to purchase another ticket at considerable financial and reputational cost.
The NCAA said it invited Qatar Airways’ country manager to a meeting over the incident, but he failed to attend, sending subordinates instead.
“I understand that some countries do not have advanced aviation consumer protection regulations like Nigeria does. In certain cases, some countries don’t even have any. This creates a situation where airlines operating out of those countries (mostly national carriers) act with disdain towards consumer protection enforcement in Nigeria.
“This is not a situation that we would accept here. It is against the law for ANY Airlines not to respond to the NCAA. It is against the law to provide false information to the NCAA. It is against the law to fail to comply with the provisions of Part 19 of the NCAA Regulations 2023,” Mr Achimugu said in an earlier post.
In September, the NCAA accused Qatar Airways of mistreating Nigerian passengers and failing to comply with consumer protection regulations under Part 19 of the NCAA Regulations 2023.
The regulator then threatened stiff penalties against the airline for repeatedly disregarding its directives.
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