Feature/OPED
Imported Petrol: The Stealing Value Chain
By Kingsley Omose
In the Punch Newspaper of August 7, 2024, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) was reported to have claimed that Nigeria’s petrol import had reduced to an average of one billion litres monthly after President Bola Tinubu removed the fuel subsidy on May 29 last year.
The Punch Newspaper report went further to quote the Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Wale Edun, as having said the following:
“The fuel subsidy was removed May 29, 2023, by Mr President, and at that time, the poorest of 40 per cent was only getting four per cent of the value, and basically, they were not benefitting at all. So it was going to be just a few.
“Another point that I think is important is that nobody knows the consumption in Nigeria of petroleum. We know we spend $600m to import fuel every month, but the issue here is that all the neighbouring countries are benefitting.
“So, we are buying not just for Nigeria, we are buying for countries to the east, almost as far as Central Africa. We are buying. We are buying for countries to the North and we are buying for countries to the West.
“And so we have to ask ourselves as Nigerians, how long do we want to do that for, and that is the key issue regarding the issue of petroleum pricing.”
The issue is that these government officials and government agencies continue to dish out astonishing figures for petrol importation and the related cost and then confuse the equation by not knowing what quantity of petrol is being consumed locally due to the effect of smuggling.
These government officials and government agencies bank on the fact that many Nigerians may not like deep thinking and are aided in this regard by the media and journalists who like trending stories and abhor digging deep into those trends even though they are designed to confuse.
The first confusion in this report is that since May 29, 2023, when petrol subsidy was removed by PBAT, monthly petrol consumed in Nigeria has dropped from 2 billion litres monthly to one billion litres. This is what the NBS is claiming, but how factual is this claim?
So, the NBS is saying the one billion litres of petrol imported monthly from May 29, 2023, and at the cost of $600 million monthly, according to Wale Edun, means that under the Buhari administration, at least 2 billion litres of petrol was imported monthly at $1.2 billion.
To clear this confusion, it means a forensic audit, pre – and post-May 29, 2023, should provide details of the various shipments of petrol to Nigeria, the owners and sizes of these ships, the ports they originated from, the ports in Nigeria where the petrol was discharged, and the dates of discharge, and the cost to the Nigerian state.
Again, the imported 2 billion litres monthly petrol pre-May 29, 2023, or the imported one billion litres monthly petrol, thereafter, had to have been discharged by these ships into storage facilities at the various points of discharge, again information that is easily verifiable.
So, following the line of payment, one would expect that the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN should either have paid $1.2 billion before May 29, 2023, or $600 million, thereafter, and, every month, did so on documents verified from NPA, NCS, NMDPRA, NNPC, and other related government agencies and parties regarding actual volumes received and stored.
Now, you can’t walk into any tank farms where the petrol has been stored after being discharged by the ships to lift petrol with a truck unless that truck is properly licensed under the appropriate trucking and marketing unions. Since the FG pays the bridging costs, NMDPRA is the gatekeeper.
Each truck can load 33,000 litres of petrol from the loading bay in each of these tank farms, meaning that under the Buhari administration, 66,606 trucks or 33,303 trucks since May 29, 2023, would have been required to move either 2 billion or one billion litres of petrol monthly.
Again, no truck loaded with petrol leaves the loading bay of the tank farm without having a designated petrol station within Nigeria as the point of discharge because only authorised marketers are allowed to buy petrol, and remember it is FG through NMDPRA that pays for delivery from tank farm loading bays to the petrol station.
This is the petrol lifted from designated loading bays by trucks meant for designated petrol stations across the country, that are known to NMDPRA, and owned by oil marketers or their affiliates, according to Wale Edun, somehow, these 33,000 litres truck of petrol find their way illegally across the border to other West and Central African countries?
Why will officials of FG, CBN, NNPCL, NUPRC, NMDPRA, NPA, NCS, tank farm owners, truck owners and drivers, petroleum marketers, petrol station owners, local and foreign banks, foreign ship owners, foreign refineries, foreign governments not want to undermine Dangote Refinery?
It is against this context that we can begin to grasp the travails of the Dangote Refinery as it soldiers on to get local crude oil for refining against a massive wall of resistance. Should Dangote Refinery fail, this would be a complete calamity for the black race, and even with funds sourced locally, Africa is destined to remain backwards.
Kingsley Omose is a public policy analyst
Feature/OPED
The Future of Payments: Key Trends to Watch in 2025
By Luke Kyohere
The global payments landscape is undergoing a rapid transformation. New technologies coupled with the rising demand for seamless, secure, and efficient transactions has spurred on an exciting new era of innovation and growth. With 2025 fast approaching, here are important trends that will shape the future of payments:
1. The rise of real-time payments
Until recently, real-time payments have been used in Africa for cross-border mobile money payments, but less so for traditional payments. We are seeing companies like Mastercard investing in this area, as well as central banks in Africa putting focus on this.
2. Cashless payments will increase
In 2025, we will see the continued acceleration of cashless payments across Africa. B2B payments in particular will also increase. Digital payments began between individuals but are now becoming commonplace for larger corporate transactions.
3. Digital currency will hit mainstream
In the cryptocurrency space, we will see an increase in the use of stablecoins like United States Digital Currency (USDC) and Tether (USDT) which are linked to US dollars. These will come to replace traditional cryptocurrencies as their price point is more stable. This year, many countries will begin preparing for Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs), government-backed digital currencies which use blockchain.
The increased uptake of digital currencies reflects the maturity of distributed ledger technology and improved API availability.
4. Increased government oversight
As adoption of digital currencies will increase, governments will also put more focus into monitoring these flows. In particular, this will centre on companies and banks rather than individuals. The goal of this will be to control and occasionally curb runaway foreign exchange (FX) rates.
5. Business leaders buy into AI technology
In 2025, we will see many business leaders buying into AI through respected providers relying on well-researched platforms and huge data sets. Most companies don’t have the budget to invest in their own research and development in AI, so many are now opting to ‘buy’ into the technology rather than ‘build’ it themselves. Moreover, many businesses are concerned about the risks associated with data ownership and accuracy so buying software is another way to avoid this risk.
6. Continued AI Adoption in Payments
In payments, the proliferation of AI will continue to improve user experience and increase security. To detect fraud, AI is used to track patterns and payment flows in real-time. If unusual activity is detected, the technology can be used to flag or even block payments which may be fraudulent.
When it comes to user experience, we will also see AI being used to improve the interface design of payment platforms. The technology will also increasingly be used for translation for international payment platforms.
7. Rise of Super Apps
To get more from their platforms, mobile network operators are building comprehensive service platforms, integrating multiple payment experiences into a single app. This reflects the shift of many users moving from text-based services to mobile apps. Rather than offering a single service, super apps are packing many other services into a single app. For example, apps which may have previously been used primarily for lending, now have options for saving and paying bills.
8. Business strategy shift
Recent major technological changes will force business leaders to focus on much shorter prediction and reaction cycles. Because the rate of change has been unprecedented in the past year, this will force decision-makers to adapt quickly, be decisive and nimble.
As the payments space evolves, businesses, banks, and governments must continually embrace innovation, collaboration, and prioritise customer needs. These efforts build a more inclusive, secure, and efficient payment system that supports local to global economic growth – enabling true financial inclusion across borders.
Luke Kyohere is the Group Chief Product and Innovation Officer at Onafriq
Feature/OPED
Ghana’s Democratic Triumph: A Call to Action for Nigeria’s 2027 Elections
In a heartfelt statement released today, the Conference of Nigeria Political Parties (CNPP) has extended its warmest congratulations to Ghana’s President-Elect, emphasizing the importance of learning from Ghana’s recent electoral success as Nigeria gears up for its 2027 general elections.
In a statement signed by its Deputy National Publicity Secretary, Comrade James Ezema, the CNPP highlighted the need for Nigeria to reclaim its status as a leader in democratic governance in Africa.
“The recent victory of Ghana’s President-Elect is a testament to the maturity and resilience of Ghana’s democracy,” the CNPP stated. “As we celebrate this achievement, we must reflect on the lessons that Nigeria can learn from our West African neighbour.”
The CNPP’s message underscored the significance of free, fair, and credible elections, a standard that Ghana has set and one that Nigeria has previously achieved under former President Goodluck Jonathan in 2015. “It is high time for Nigeria to reclaim its position as a beacon of democracy in Africa,” the CNPP asserted, calling for a renewed commitment to the electoral process.
Central to CNPP’s message is the insistence that “the will of the people must be supreme in Nigeria’s electoral processes.” The umbrella body of all registered political parties and political associations in Nigeria CNPP emphasized the necessity of an electoral system that genuinely reflects the wishes of the Nigerian populace. “We must strive to create an environment where elections are free from manipulation, violence, and intimidation,” the CNPP urged, calling on the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) to take decisive action to ensure the integrity of the electoral process.
The CNPP also expressed concern over premature declarations regarding the 2027 elections, stating, “It is disheartening to note that some individuals are already announcing that there is no vacancy in Aso Rock in 2027. This kind of statement not only undermines the democratic principles that our nation holds dear but also distracts from the pressing need for the current administration to earn the trust of the electorate.”
The CNPP viewed the upcoming elections as a pivotal moment for Nigeria. “The 2027 general elections present a unique opportunity for Nigeria to reclaim its position as a leader in democratic governance in Africa,” it remarked. The body called on all stakeholders — including the executive, legislature, judiciary, the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), and civil society organisations — to collaborate in ensuring that elections are transparent, credible, and reflective of the will of the Nigerian people.
As the most populous African country prepares for the 2027 elections, the CNPP urged all Nigerians to remain vigilant and committed to democratic principles. “We must work together to ensure that our elections are free from violence, intimidation, and manipulation,” the statement stated, reaffirming the CNPP’s commitment to promoting a peaceful and credible electoral process.
In conclusion, the CNPP congratulated the President-Elect of Ghana and the Ghanaian people on their remarkable achievements.
“We look forward to learning from their experience and working together to strengthen democracy in our region,” the CNPP concluded.
Feature/OPED
The Need to Promote Equality, Equity and Fairness in Nigeria’s Proposed Tax Reforms
By Kenechukwu Aguolu
The proposed tax reform, involving four tax bills introduced by the Federal Government, has received significant criticism. Notably, it was rejected by the Governors’ Forum but was still forwarded to the National Assembly. Unlike the various bold economic decisions made by this government, concessions will likely need to be made on these tax reforms, which involve legislative amendments and therefore cannot be imposed by the executive. This article highlights the purposes of taxation, the qualities of a good tax system, and some of the implications of the proposed tax reforms.
One of the major purposes of taxation is to generate revenue for the government to finance its activities. A good tax system should raise sufficient revenue for the government to fund its operations, and support economic and infrastructural development. For any country to achieve meaningful progress, its tax-to-GDP ratio should be at least 15%. Currently, Nigeria’s tax-to-GDP ratio is less than 11%. The proposed tax reforms aim to increase this ratio to 18% within the next three years.
A good tax system should also promote income redistribution and equality by implementing progressive tax policies. In line with this, the proposed tax reforms favour low-income earners. For example, individuals earning less than one million naira annually are exempted from personal income tax. Additionally, essential goods and services such as food, accommodation, and transportation, which constitute a significant portion of household consumption for low- and middle-income groups, are to be exempted from VAT.
In addition to equality, a good tax system should ensure equity and fairness, a key area of contention surrounding the proposed reforms. If implemented, the amendments to the Value Added Tax could lead to a significant reduction in the federal allocation for some states; impairing their ability to finance government operations and development projects. The VAT amendments should be holistically revisited to promote fairness and national unity.
The establishment of a single agency to collect government taxes, the Nigeria Revenue Service, could reduce loopholes that have previously resulted in revenue losses, provided proper controls are put in place. It is logically easier to monitor revenue collection by one agency than by multiple agencies. However, this is not a magical solution. With automation, revenue collection can be seamless whether it is managed by one agency or several, as long as monitoring and accountability measures are implemented effectively.
The proposed tax reforms by the Federal Government are well-intentioned. However, all concerns raised by Nigerians should be looked into, and concessions should be made where necessary. Policies are more effective when they are adapted to suit the unique characteristics of a nation, rather than adopted wholesale. A good tax system should aim to raise sufficient revenue, ensure equitable income distribution, and promote equality, equity, and fairness.
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