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Crude Oil Dips as Investors Weigh Supply Expectations After OPEC+ Moves

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Utapate crude oil blend

By Adedapo Adesanya

Crude oil fell on Thursday as investors weighed the supply outlook after the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) delayed its planned output increase by three months to April 2025, with Brent going down by 22 cents or 0.3 per cent to trade at $72.09 a barrel and the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) depleting by 24 cents or 0.35 per cent to finish at $68.30 a barrel.

OPEC+ had been planning to start unwinding cuts from October 2024 and after a meeting on Thursday, it agreed to extend the 2 million barrels per day and the 1.65 million barrels per day of cuts until the end of 2026 from the end of 2025 respectively.

Under its formal output strategy, the broader OPEC+ coalition is now restricting its combined production to 39.725 million barrels per day until December 31, 2026, after previously only applying this quota throughout 2025.

Eight OPEC+ members will now extend their 2.2 million barrels per day voluntary production decline into the first quarter and will begin hiking production incrementally between April and September 2026.

The alliance pumps around half of the world’s supply, but market analysts noted that the market is facing a surplus from non-OPEC producers.

So, while there is no shortage of oil, there is no positive sign of what to look forward to in the future to rally prices.

Cooling US Dollar provided some some support for oil prices, as it makes prices cheaper for holders of other currencies.

There are high expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates this month, a move that will further ease the Dollar’s strength and support the oil market.

Market analysts also warned that the oil market will now shift focus to the actions of US President-elect Donald Trump, who when he takes office on January 20, could impose new sanctions on Iran, and tariffs on China and has pledged an end to the Russia-Ukraine war.

Israel said on Tuesday it would return to war with Hezbollah if their ceasefire collapses and its attacks would go deeper into Lebanon and target the state itself.

Meanwhile, Donald Trump’s Middle East envoy has travelled to Qatar and Israel to kick-start the US president-elect’s diplomatic push to help reach a Gaza ceasefire and hostage release deal before he takes office.

Adedapo Adesanya is a journalist, polymath, and connoisseur of everything art. When he is not writing, he has his nose buried in one of the many books or articles he has bookmarked or simply listening to good music with a bottle of beer or wine. He supports the greatest club in the world, Manchester United F.C.

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Economy

Nigeria’s Crude Oil Production Hits 1.5 million Barrels Per Day

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Crude Oil Production

By Adedapo Adesanya

Nigeria raised its crude oil production by 50,000 barrels per day to around 1.5 million barrels per day in December 2024, according to the latest output survey by Reuters.

The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) had said the country’s oil output rose to 1.48 million barrels per day in November from 1.33 million barrels per day in the previous month.

With the latest addition, this has brought the output count of Africa’s largest oil producer to 1.5 million barrels per day.

The Reuters survey – based on flows data from financial group LSEG, Kpler, OPEC and other sources – found that Nigeria exceeded its target by the largest amount.

It added that the production boost in the final month of last year came as a result of higher domestic usage in refineries such as Dangote and higher exports.

Business Post reports that about 395,000 barrels per day of crude oil were delivered to the Dangote Refinery in December under the crude-for-Naira deal with the federal government.

Also, Nigeria said in December it had resumed some operations at its Warri refinery after years of shutdowns.

The general OPEC basket pumped 26.46 million barrels per day last month, down 50,000 barrels per day from November, the survey showed on Tuesday, with the United Arab Emirates (UAE) providing the biggest drop (90,000 barrels per day) because of field maintenance followed by Iran which fell by 70,000 barrels per day.

The modest decline in output came as the wider OPEC+ group kept production cuts in place in December due to global demand concerns and rising output outside the group.

OPEC’s top two producers, Saudi Arabia and Iraq, kept output steady and the group pumped below its implied target for the nine members covered by supply agreements. Libya and Venezuela are exempted.

OPEC+ decided last month to postpone its plan to start raising output until April 2025.

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Economy

Aggregate Forex Inflows into Nigeria Soar 41% to $79.8bn

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forex inflows

By Modupe Gbadeyanka

In the first 10 months of 2024, the aggregate foreign exchange (FX) inflows into Nigeria increased by 41 per cent on a year-on-year basis to $79.8 billion from $55.6 billion in the same period of the preceding year.

This information was revealed by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) through its Economic Report for October 2024.

The apex bank disclosed that in the period under consideration, the nation recorded a 1.4 per cent decline in aggregated FX outflows to $29.84 billion from the $30.29 billion posted in the first 10 months of 2023.

As for the net forex inflows, it rose by 65.7 per cent to $46.92 billion from $28.31 billion in the corresponding period of 2023, with inflows from autonomous sources growing by 0.06 per cent to $35.82 billion from $34.4 billion, outflows from autonomous sources expanding by 195 per cent to $7.08 billion from $2.4 billion, and the net forex inflows from autonomous sources jumped by 73 per cent to $39.7 billion from $22.93 billion.

“Foreign exchange flows through the economy amounted to a net inflow of $4.86 billion, relative to $6.35 billion in September 2024. Aggregate foreign exchange inflow increased to $9.15 billion, from $8.59 billion in the preceding month.

“Similarly, foreign exchange outflow increased to $4.29 billion, from $2.24 billion in the preceding month.

“Foreign exchange inflow through the bank declined to $4.48 billion, from $5.22 billion in the preceding month, while autonomous inflow increased to $4.67 billion, from $3.37 billion in the preceding month.

“Outflow through the bank rose to $3.73 billion, from $1.84 billion, while autonomous outflow fell to $0.56 billion, from $0.40 billion in September 2024.

“Consequently, a net inflow of $4.11 billion was recorded through autonomous sources compared with $2.97 billion in September 2024, while the bank recorded a net inflow of $0.75 billion, relative to $3.38 billion in the preceding month,” parts of the report said.

It was also revealed that the CBN inflows soared by 55 per cent between January 2024 and October 2024 to $32.94 billion from $21.25 billion in the same period of the previous year, as outflows through the central bank shrank by 1.11 per cent to $25.74 billion from $26.03 billion, leaving the net FX inflow up by 556.8 per cent to $7.16 billion from -$1.09 billion.

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Economy

CSCS Buoys Unlisted Securities Exchange With 0.07% Gain

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Regconnect CSCS

By Adedapo Adesanya

The NASD Over-the-Counter (OTC) Securities Exchange extended its presence in the green territory with a 0.07 per cent growth on Tuesday, January 7, spurred by a gain recorded by Central Securities Clearing System (CSCS) Plc.

At the close of business yesterday, the Nigerian securities depository company increased its share price by 15 Kobo to end at N23.20 per unit compared with the previous day’s N23.05 per unit.

As a result of this, the market capitalisation of the bourse went up by N750 million to finish at N1.056 trillion like the preceding session, and the NASD Unlisted Security Index (NSI) expanded by 2.18 points to wrap the session at 3,080.29 points compared with 3,080.47 points recorded at the previous session.

The market was relatively quiet on Tuesday as investors reconsidered their exposure to unlisted securities, with the volume of transactions declining by 96.8 per cent to 59,432 units from the 1.8 million units achieved a day earlier.

In the same vein, the value of trades recorded yesterday decreased by 89.9 per cent to N2.1 million from N20.7 million, and the number of deals slumped by 79.3 per cent to six deals from 29 deals.

FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc ended the session as the most active stock by value (year-to-date) with 1.9 million units worth N74.2 million, trailed by 11 Plc with 12,963 units valued at N3.2 million, and Industrial and General Insurance  (IGI )Plc with 10.7 million units sold for N2.1 million.

IGI Plc finished the trading session as the most active stock by volume (year-to-date) with 10.6 million units valued at N2.1 million, followed by FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc with 1.9 million units sold for at N74.2 million, and Acorn Petroleum Plc with 1.2 million units worth N1.9 million.

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