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Economy

Agricultural Cycles and Nigerian Currency Markets

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Nigeria’s farming sector shapes currency markets through crop cycles, food imports, and rural income patterns. While oil dominates foreign exchange earnings, agriculture affects millions of Nigerians and creates seasonal currency demand that smart traders notice.

The country grows massive amounts of cassava, yam, maize, rice, and other staples for both local eating and exports. Weather, planting times, and harvest cycles create predictable changes in farm output that affect import needs and rural spending power. Agricultural price movements help explain currency swings that seem unrelated to oil prices or central bank policies.

Crop Cycles and Import Replacement

Rice production follows clear wet and dry season patterns affecting Nigeria’s huge rice import costs. Better domestic harvests during good growing seasons cut foreign currency needs for rice from Thailand, India, and other suppliers.

Cassava processing into flour and starch creates export chances to nearby markets while replacing wheat imports. Nigerian cassava flour exports to neighboring countries bring in foreign currency supporting the naira during certain periods.

Maize cycles affect both human food and animal feed supplies. Bad maize harvests increase import needs for livestock feed and food products, adding foreign currency demand during specific seasons.

Yam production stays mostly local but affects rural income levels influencing domestic currency patterns. Good yam harvests boost rural buying power and may change local currency flow.

Cocoa Exports and Global Markets

Nigeria ranks among top cocoa producers worldwide, earning substantial foreign currency through exports to chocolate makers in Europe and North America. Global cocoa price swings directly hit Nigerian foreign exchange earnings from this sector.

Cocoa farming areas in southwestern Nigeria see income cycles following international cocoa market trends. High cocoa prices lift farmer incomes and rural spending, while low prices cut economic activity in cocoa states.

Quality bonuses for Nigerian cocoa beans affect export earnings beyond basic quantity math. Better processing and quality control generates higher foreign currency returns per ton exported.

Seasonal workers moving to cocoa farms affect regional economic patterns and currency flow. Workers from northern Nigeria head south during harvest seasons, creating temporary population and economic shifts.

Palm Oil Production and Regional Trade

Oil palm growing in southern Nigeria produces palm oil for local use and regional exports. Nigerian palm oil competes with Malaysian and Indonesian products in West African markets.

Small processing facilities let rural communities add value to palm fruit production, earning more foreign currency than raw fruit exports. These operations affect rural jobs and income spread.

Regional demand for Nigerian palm oil from Ghana, Benin, and Cameroon creates steady export opportunities generating foreign currency separate from global oil conditions.

Environmental concerns affect international market access for Nigerian palm oil products. Certification programs and sustainable practices influence export potential and foreign currency earnings.

Livestock and Cross-Border Trade

Cattle herding creates cross-border trade between Nigeria and neighbors like Niger, Chad, and Cameroon. These livestock movements involve informal currency exchanges affecting regional currency dynamics.

Poultry production needs imported feed and equipment, creating foreign currency demand varying with production cycles and local corn availability. Large poultry operations depend on steady feed supplies.

Fish farming development cuts seafood import needs while creating regional export opportunities. Aquaculture expansion affects both foreign currency savings through import replacement and earnings through exports.

Dairy production stays limited in Nigeria, creating ongoing import needs for milk powder and dairy products requiring foreign currency payments year-round.

Weather Patterns and Farm Output

Nigeria’s rainy season from April to October determines farming success across most of the country. Rainfall timing and amounts affect crop yields and related foreign currency impacts.

Drought in northern Nigeria cuts crop yields and increases food import needs, adding foreign currency demand during tough weather years. Climate swings affect farm planning and currency market patterns.

Flooding in southern areas can disrupt farm production and processing, affecting both local food security and export potential. Extreme weather creates unpredictable currency market pressures.

Sahel desertification affects farm productivity in northern states, potentially increasing long-term food import needs requiring ongoing foreign currency spending.

Rural Banking and Farm Finance

Farm financing patterns affect how rural income translates into currency market activity. Harvest season loan payments create concentrated banking activity periods in farming regions.

Microfinance serving rural areas helps agricultural trade and may enable currency activities for small farmers and traders in cross-border farm commerce. Professional currency traders often monitor these agricultural patterns through established platforms like fbs.com to identify seasonal trading opportunities linked to farming cycles.

Mobile money adoption in rural areas improves financial service access and may eventually help currency activities for farming communities previously outside formal banking.

Agricultural insurance development could stabilize rural incomes and create more predictable currency market patterns from farm activities.

Food Processing Industry Growth

Tomato paste facilities cut Nigeria’s dependence on imported tomato concentrate, saving foreign currency while creating jobs in farming regions. Processing industry growth affects both import replacement and export potential.

Wheat flour mills depend on imported wheat since local production stays limited. These operations create steady foreign currency demand regardless of local farm production cycles.

Sugar refineries process both local sugarcane and imported raw sugar, creating complex currency effects varying with local production success and international sugar prices.

Vegetable oil processing facilities work with various oilseeds producing cooking oil for local consumption and regional exports.

Farm Export Infrastructure

Lagos port facilities handle substantial farm export volumes, though infrastructure limits can create bottlenecks affecting export timing and foreign currency earnings.

Rural road networks affect farmers’ ability to transport crops to processing facilities and export terminals. Infrastructure improvements can boost farm export potential and foreign currency generation.

Storage facilities influence farm export timing and quality, affecting foreign currency earning potential from farm products. Post-harvest losses cut export volumes and foreign currency earnings.

Cold chain logistics for perishable farm exports stay limited, restricting Nigeria’s access to high-value export markets that could generate premium foreign currency earnings.

Regional Farm Trade Relationships

West African regional markets provide steady demand for Nigerian farm products including processed foods, spices, and raw materials. These regional trade relationships create foreign currency earnings independent of global commodity markets.

Cross-border farm trade with Benin, Niger, and Cameroon involves both formal and informal currency exchanges affecting regional currency flow patterns.

Farm product price differences between Nigeria and neighboring countries create arbitrage opportunities generating cross-border trade and related currency flows.

Regional food security concerns affect trade policies and may create sudden changes in farm export permissions influencing foreign currency earning opportunities.

Climate Adaptation and Farm Sustainability

Changing rainfall patterns affect farm productivity and may require increased irrigation infrastructure involving imported equipment and foreign currency spending.

Drought-resistant crop varieties may cut farm vulnerability to weather changes while maintaining export potential and foreign currency earning capacity.

Soil conservation programs help maintain farm productivity but may need foreign technical help and equipment creating foreign currency demand.

Farm research partnerships with international organizations bring foreign currency inflows while improving long-term farm productivity and export potential.

Nigeria’s farming sector creates complex currency market relationships operating independently of oil market dynamics while affecting millions of rural residents. These farm influences on currency markets reflect the country’s broader economic structure and development challenges beyond petroleum production.

Economy

Interest Rates May Remain Elevated Despite Inflation Cooling—PwC

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interest rate hike

By Adedapo Adesanya

According to PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC), Nigeria’s benchmark interest rate is likely to remain elevated in 2026 even as inflation shows signs of easing.

Speaking at the PwC–BusinessDay Executive Roundtable on Nigeria’s 2026 budget and economic outlook in Lagos on Thursday, the Chief Economist and Head of Strategy at PwC, Mr Olusegun Zaccheaus, said expectations of aggressive interest rate cuts might be premature even with the core factor – inflation – seen cooling.

“Interest rates may remain elevated despite inflation cooling for most of 2025,” Mr Zaccheaus said. “Perhaps not by the 500 basis points some hope for, due to the need to manage liquidity.”

The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) had more than doubled its policy rate from 2022 levels in a bid to rein in inflationary pressures, before implementing a 50 basis-point cut in September that brought the monetary policy rate to 27 per cent.

The move followed a sharp moderation in inflation from its late-2024 peak. Inflation slowed to 15.15 per cent in December 2025, while the economy expanded by 3.98 per cent in the third quarter, its strongest quarterly growth in years.

At the last Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting of the CBN in November 2025 voted to keep the interest steady.

The PwC official warned that warned that underlying risks, including exchange-rate volatility, fiscal pressures and global uncertainty, continue to complicate the outlook.

Mr Zaccheaus said that a major challenge for the apex bank will be to control the volume of money circulating in the economy.

He advised that liquidity management remains critical as excess cash can quickly undermine dis-inflation efforts particularly as the 2027 election cycle is around the corner.

He said that Nigeria typically experiences rapid growth in money supply ahead of election cycles, driven by increased government spending and political activity, adding that without careful coordination, such expansions risk fueling inflation and weakening investor confidence.

“The responsibility of the central bank is to ensure liquidity does not grow in a way that has a negative macroeconomic impact,” Mr Zaccheaus said.

He noted that a stable currency environment would support improved capital allocation and investment planning.

“FX stability is crucial,” Mr Zaccheaus said. “It gives investors confidence and allows businesses to plan. But that stability depends on disciplined policy execution.”

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Economy

Dangote Refinery Assures Steady Daily Supply of 75 million Litres of PMS, Others

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Fifth Crude Cargo Dangote Refinery

By Aduragbemi Omiyale

If the assurance from the Dangote Petroleum Refinery is anything to take to the bank, then consumers of petroleum products in Nigeria have nothing to worry about in terms of availability.

The refinery has assured that it has the capacity to supply to them on a daily basis about 75 million litres of premium motor spirit (PMS), otherwise known as petrol; 25 litres of automated gas oil (AGO), also known as diesel; and 20 litres of jet fuel.

Nigeria is estimated to consume about 50 million litres of petrol per day, 14 million litres of diesel, and four litres of aviation fuel.

Dangote Refinery in a statement said the availability of volumes above prevailing demand provides critical supply buffers, enhances market stability and reduces reliance on imports, particularly during periods of peak demand or logistical disruption.

“The management of Dangote Petroleum Refinery would like to reiterate our capability to supply the underlisted petroleum products of the highest international quality standard to marketers and stakeholders,” it said in a public notice.

Industry analysts noted that supplying above estimated consumption reduces the need for emergency imports, strengthens inventory cover, enhances the resilience of the domestic supply chain, and boosts the foreign exchange ecosystem, thereby fortifying the value of the Naira in the currency market.

Dangote Refinery has also reaffirmed its commitment to full regulatory compliance and continued cooperation with the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA), stating that its supply approach is aligned with ongoing efforts to ensure market stability and orderly downstream operations.

It said it remains fully engaged with regulators and industry stakeholders in support of Nigeria’s national energy security objectives, as the country deepens its transition from fuel import dependence to domestic refining. It added that it continues to work closely with market participants to ensure that the benefits of local refining, including reliable supply, competitive pricing and improved market discipline are delivered consistently to consumers nationwide.

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Economy

Sachet Alcohol Ban: NECA Demands Respect for Due Process

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NECA Adewale Smatt-Oyerinde

By Adedapo Adesanya

The Nigeria Employers’ Consultative Association (NECA) has expressed concern over the renewed enforcement of a ban on the production and sale of alcoholic beverages in sachets and small PET bottles by the National Agency for Food and Drug Administration and Control (NAFDAC).

The group’s director general, Mr Wale-Smatt Oyerinde, warned that the action of the agency could have adverse economic and governance consequences.

NECA is the organisation expressing worry of this issue after the Manufacturers Association of Nigeria (MAN) raised concerns about it earlier this week.

Mr Oyerinde said the enforcement contradicts a directive from the Office of the Secretary to the Government of the Federation dated December 15, 2025, which suspended the ban, as well as a March 14, 2024 resolution of the House of Representatives calling for restraint and broader stakeholder engagement.

The NECA chief said the continued enforcement is already disrupting legitimate businesses, unsettling ongoing investments, and putting thousands of jobs at risk, while weakening confidence in Nigeria’s regulatory environment.

According to Mr Oyerinde, regulation should be based on evidence, proportionality and the rule of law. He noted that the affected products were tested, registered and periodically revalidated under NAFDAC’s regulatory procedures, with alcohol content clearly labelled in line with internationally recognised Alcohol by Volume standards.

He added that underage drinking is primarily an enforcement issue at the retail level rather than a packaging issue, and called for stricter licensing, monitoring, and sanctions for erring retailers rather than a blanket ban on certain product formats.

NECA boss also warned that sachet and small-pack formats reflect affordability realities for many adult consumers, and that eliminating them could push demand into informal, unregulated markets, increasing public health risks and shrinking the formal economy.

He further expressed concern that enforcement efforts are focused on a regulated segment of the beverage industry while more dangerous illicit narcotics and abused pharmaceuticals continue to circulate widely among young people.

On the economic impact, NECA said the wines and spirits value chain supports significant direct and indirect employment across manufacturing, packaging, distribution, transportation, retail and agriculture.

It cautioned that sudden regulatory actions could threaten livelihoods, reduce government revenue and undermine investor confidence.

Addressing environmental concerns, NECA said plastic waste issues should be tackled through improved waste management, recycling systems and extended producer responsibility frameworks, rather than selective product bans.

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