Economy
Nigeria Ought to Rebase Economy 2017—NBS Boss
By Modupe Gbadeyanka
Statistician-General of the Federation, Dr Yemi Kale, has disclosed that Nigeria was supposed to rebase its economy this year, but as things stand, such may never happen.
Dr Kale told Economic Confidential in an interview in Abuja that money was not released by the Federal Government to carry out this exercise.
He said in the interview that, “We are supposed to have to done it (rebase) this year, but no allocation to that effect.
“Every country does it maximum five years. The United States of America does it once a year. Those ones have more money, so they do it every year, apart from the fact that their economy is more dynamic.
“Technology is changing so many things so they have to upgrade all the time. If you don’t rebase your economy, it is like as if you are using Betamark system.
“When we rebased the economy, the politicians grabbed it because it favoured them. If it were in the negative, nobody will even talk about it.
“I was surprised to see at the election period that APC went to our website to retrieve all the positive figures and refused to accept the ones tagged negative.
“PDP too took all the positives and refused the poverty rate figures! Meanwhile all of them are NBS data.
“I have seen a Minister who agreed with chapter two of our report and said chapter three was not correct. While commending us for a job well done on chapter two, chapter three was tagged not correct; the same document!”
Speaking further on the economic, the renowned Economist said all things being equal, the Nigeria will get out of recession next year.
“If all prices do not collapse including Niger Delta crisis, by 2018 we would have recovered,” Dr Kale told Economic Confidential.
He said further, “It was an extremely difficult period and we all felt it. I will say that most of the indicators suggest that we are coming out of it.
“We have not come out of it yet. As if the worst has already happened and it’s a low process of recovery. Now there is what we call technical recovery as different from the recovery Nigerians would prefer.
“When you tell somebody, the economy is coming out of recession, they would say what do you mean. After all, prices are still high.
“Coming out of recession means positive growth. And your positive growth can be plus zero point one (+0.1). That does not mean everything is fine. It technically means you are no longer in negative again,” said Dr Kale.
He further posited that the fact that you are no longer in negative does not translate to be buoyant, stressing that there is going to be a gradual process of recovery as things are improving.
“At least all the indicators are suggesting things are getting better. People always make this mistake when we say inflation is slowing down. Slowing down of Inflation does not mean prices are coming down.
“Inflation by definition is always a rise in price. All we are saying is that increase is not as much as before. Before it went up by 100 percent, but this time it went up by 50 percent. Having double digit inflation figure is still huge and a problem.
The fact that it went down from 18 percent to 17 percent and now to 16 percent shows improvement. But I can tell you 16 percent is not good but a huge problem”, he said.
According to him, “If the trend continues, by the end of the year things should have normalized and by 2018 Nigerians would now see the benefit of the recovery.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Naira appreciated further against the United States Dollar at the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEM) by N1.50 or 0.09 per cent to close at N1,533.00/$1 on Friday, December 13 versus the N1,534.50/$1 it was transacted on Thursday.
The local currency has continued to benefit from the Electronic Foreign Exchange Matching System (EFEMS) introduced by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) this month.
The implementation of the forex system comes with diverse implications for all segments of the financial markets that deal with FX, including the rebound in the value of the Naira across markets.
The system instantly reflects data on all FX transactions conducted in the interbank market and approved by the CBN.
Market analysts say the publication of real-time prices and buy-sell orders data from this system has lent support to the Naira in the official market and tackled speculation.
In the official market yesterday, the domestic currency improved its value against the Pound Sterling by N12.58 to wrap the session at N1,942.19/£1 compared with the previous day’s N1,954.77/£1 and against the Euro, it gained N2.44 to close at N1,612.85/€1 versus Thursday’s closing price of N1,610.41/€1.
At the black market, the Nigerian Naira appreciated against the greenback on Friday by N30 to sell for N1,650/$1 compared with the preceding session’s value of N1,680/$1.
Meanwhile, the cryptocurrency market was largely positive as investors banked on recent signals, including fresh support from US President-elect, Mr Donald Trump, as well as interest rate cuts by the European Central Bank (ECB).
Ripple (XRP) added 7.3 per cent to sell at $2.49, Binance Coin (BNB) rose by 3.5 per cent to $728.28, Cardano (ADA) expanded by 2.4 per cent to trade at $1.11, Litecoin (LTC) increased by 2.3 per cent to $122.56, Bitcoin (BTC) gained 1.9 per cent to settle at $101,766.17, Dogecoin (DOGE) jumped by 1.2 per cent to $0.4064, Solana (SOL) soared by 0.7 per cent to $226.15 and Ethereum (ETH) advanced by 0.6 per cent to $3,925.35, while the US Dollar Tether (USDT) and the US Dollar Coin (USDC) remained unchanged at $1.00 each.
By Dipo Olowookere
For the fourth consecutive trading session, the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited closed higher on Friday by 0.63 per cent on sustained renewed buying pressure.
Apart from the energy and industrial goods sectors which closed flat, every other sector ended in the green territory, according to data obtained from the bourse.
Business Post reports that the insurance index appreciated by 1.52 per cent, the banking space improved by 0.63 per cent, and the consumer goods counter expanded by 0.46 per cent.
As a result, the All-Share Index (ASI) gained 617.47 points to settle at 99,378.06 points compared with the preceding day’s 98,760.59 points and the market capitalisation went up by 375 billion to close at N60.242 trillion, in contrast to Thursday’s closing value of N59.867 trillion.
The volume of transactions on Customs Street yesterday grew by 11.13 per cent to 544.2 million shares from the 489.7 million shares transacted a day earlier.
The value of transactions increased during the session by 49.30 per cent to N10.6 billion from N7.1 billion and the number of deals went up by 1.93 per cent to 8,464 deals from the 8,304 deals posted in the previous trading session.
The busiest equity for the trading day was Japaul with the sale of 71.7 million units valued at N158.0 million, eTranzact exchanged 70.7 million units worth N477.5 million, Tantalizers sold 57.3 million units for N101.2 million, FCMB traded 33.0 million units worth N297.3 million, and Universal Insurance transacted 27.1 million units valued at N9.6 million.
A total of 36 stocks ended on the gainers’ chart, while 15 stocks finished on the losers’ table, indicating a positive market breadth index and strong investor sentiment.
The trio of Aradel Holdings, Ikeja Hotel and Caverton gained 10.00 per cent each to trade at N550.00, N8.80, and N1.98, respectively, as Africa Prudential rose by 9.87 per cent to N17.25 and Golden Guinea Breweries soared by 9.64 per cent to N8.64.
On the flip side, Austin Laz lost 10.00 per cent to close at N1.62, ABC Transport crashed by 8.00 per cent to N1.15, Royal Exchange slumped by 7.69 per cent to 60 Kobo, Secure Electronic Technology plunged by 5.26 per cent to 54 Kobo, and The Initiates crumbled by 4.26 per cent to N2.25.
By Adedapo Adesanya
Oil climbed by about 2 per cent on Friday on expectations that additional sanctions on Russia and Iran could tighten supplies and that lower interest rates in Europe and the US could boost fuel demand.
Brent futures went up by $1.08 or 1.5 per cent to settle at $74.49 a barrel and the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures expanded by $1.27 or 1.8 per cent to close at $71.29 per barrel.
European Union ambassadors agreed to impose a 15th package of sanctions on Russia this week over its war against Ukraine, targeting its shadow tanker fleet.
The sanctions would target vessels from third countries supporting Russia’s war in Ukraine and add more individuals and entities to the sanctions list.
The sanctions package is likely to be formally adopted at a meeting of EU foreign ministers on Monday and will target close to 30 entities, over 50 individuals and 45 tankers.
Also, the US is considering similar moves that might target some Russian oil exports, before Donald Trump returns to the White House.
Britain, France and Germany told the United Nations Security Council they were ready if necessary to trigger a so-called “snap back” of all international sanctions on Iran to prevent the country from acquiring nuclear weapons.
The move comes as Iran has suffered a series of strategic setbacks, including Israel’s assault on Tehran’s proxy militias Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon and the ouster of Iranian ally Bashar al-Assad in Syria.
Meanwhile, data from China this week showed that crude imports in the world’s top importer grew annually in November for the first time in seven months.
There are expectations that China’s crude imports will remain elevated into early 2025 as refiners opt to lift more supply from top exporter Saudi Arabia, drawn by lower prices, while independent refiners rush to use their quota.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) increased its forecast for 2025 global oil demand growth to 1.1 million barrels per day from 990,000 barrels per day last month, citing China’s stimulus measures.
The Paris-based energy watchdog forecast an oil surplus for next year, when nations not in the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allies, OPEC+ group, are set to boost supply by about 1.5 million barrels per day, driven by Argentina, Brazil, Canada, Guyana and the US.
The United Arab Emirates (UAE), an OPEC member, plans to reduce oil shipments early next year as OPEC+ seeks tighter discipline.
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