Economy
FY17: Unilever Nigeria EPS to Grow 94.7% to N1.58k—Analyst
By Dipo Olowookere
A research analyst at Renaissance Capital, Mr Adedayo Ayeni, has predicted that Earnings Per Share (diluted for the additional 1.9 billion shares issued in recent capital call) of Unilever Nigeria Plc is expected to grow by 94.7 percent year-on-year to N1.58k in the 2017 financial year.
Traders in the stock market are expected the company to release its 2017 financial statements soon and Mr Ayeni anticipates the company to record sales growth of 35.7 percent y-o-y and net profit growth of 112.6 percent y-o-y.
Recall that Unilever Nigeria carried out rights issue and Mr Ayeni believes that the excess cash obtained from the exercise will lead to the firm ending the fiscal year with a net cash balance of N29.8 billion and N31.2 billion next year.
He said with management not disclosing any major expansion capex plans for FY18 and the Blue Band plant in Agbara completed and commissioned in December 2017, capex should moderate to depreciation from FY18.
“We therefore cut our modelled capex to match depreciation in FY18-22. This therefore supports the strong cash-build which we see for Unilever in FY18-22 with FCF forecast to post 25.7 percent CAGR.
“Unilever’s management is now faced with the decision of what to do with the excess cash from the rights issue and the expected build-up from FCF.
“We have modelled that it continues to earn interest income which is the main driver of our earnings revision estimates in FY18 and FY19.
“There is the risk that it could pay extraordinary dividends in FY18 as we now estimate it will end FY17 and FY18 with net cash/equity of 38.9 percent and 40.6 percent, respectively,” the analyst said.
Furthermore, RenCap said given the slowdown in sales growth observed for Nestle Nigeria in the food segment in 4Q17 and that it was yet to see material increases in the price of Knorr in the current quarter, it revises its estimates for Unilever.
“We cut our sales forecasts by an average of 1.7 percent in FY17-18 and by 6.2 percent in FY19. We raise our EBITDA forecast by 2.3 percent in FY18 and 10.6 percent in FY19 as we view management’s drive to contain costs and move the production of Blue Band margarine to Nigeria as pleasing and supportive of medium- to long-term margin capture,” it said.
RenCap said it was mindful of tailwind FX risks associated with Unilever’s FX exposure.
In a meeting with management in 2017, it admitted that its FX effective rate was closer to N285/$ when most of the consumer companies under our coverage were sourcing FX at rates above N300/$.
“With FX rates now above ~NGN335/$ for most consumer companies and price increases in FY18-20 expected to be sub-inflationary, we expect EBITDA margin to decline to 14.7% in FY18.
However, we raise our net profit forecast by 20.4 percent and 33.5 percent in FY18 and FY19 with expectations of healthy interest income on significant cash balance driving the material revisions,” RenCap stated.
In addition, the investment firm said it has revised its estimates for Unilever with key changes driven by the expected impact of a stronger cash-build on interest income, capex cuts to match depreciation in forecast years and medium-term margin expansion.
“As a result, we up our TP by 3.0% to NGN40.5/share. The increase is further driven by a lower risk-free rate of 13.7% and upward revision to FY18E EPS.
“We maintain our SELL rating as we believe its valuation is still stretched given the recent re-rating. On our estimates, Unilever trades on FY18 P/E and EV/EBITDA multiples of 29.0x and 18.0x, respectively.
“While still trading below its five-year average forward P/E of 39.2x, we are still unable to justify the stock’s valuation at his level vs Nestle Nigeria (SELL; TP: NGN1,262.9; CP: NGN1,380.0), which we estimate trades on FY18 P/E of 26.6x,” it said.
Economy
NGX Market Cap Surpasses N110trn as FY 2025 Earnings Impress Investors
By Dipo Olowookere
Investors at the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited have continued to show excitement for the full-year earnings of companies on the exchange so far.
On Friday, Customs Street further appreciated by 1.01 per cent as more organization released their financial statements for the 2025 fiscal year.
During the session, traders continued their selective trading strategy, with the energy sector going up by 2.47 per cent at the close of business despite profit-taking in the banking counter, which saw its index down by 0.11 per cent.
Yesterday, the insurance space grew by 2.16 per cent, the industrial goods segment expanded by 1.70 per cent, and the consumer goods industry jumped by 0.42 per cent.
Consequently, the All-Share Index (ASI) increased by 1,722.13 points to 171,727.49 points from 170,005.36 points, and the market capitalisation soared by N1.106 trillion to N110.235 trillion from the N109.129 trillion it ended on Thursday.
Business Post reports that there were 59 appreciating stocks and 19 depreciating stocks on Friday, representing a positive market breadth index and strong investor sentiment.
The trio of Omatek, Deap Capital, and NAHCO gained 10.00 per cent each to sell for N2.64, N6.82, and N136.40 apiece, as Zichis and Austin Laz appreciated by 9.98 per cent each to close at N6.72 and N5.40, respectively.
Conversely, The Initiates depreciated by 9.74 per cent to N19.45, DAAR Communications slumped by 7.32 per cent to N1.90, United Capital crashed by 6.55 per cent to N18.55, Coronation Insurance lost 5.71 per cent to quote at N3.30, and First Holdco shrank by 5.53 per cent to N47.00.
The activity chart showed an improvement in the activity level, with the trading volume, value, and number of deals up by 33.77 per cent, 93.27 per cent, and 10.63 per cent, respectively.
This was because traders transacted 953.8 million shares worth N43.1 billion in 51,005 deals compared with the 713.0 million shares valued at N22.3 billion traded in 46,104 deals a day earlier.
Fidelity Bank was the most active with 92.4 million units sold for N1.8 billion, Chams transacted 69.2 million units valued at N310.9 million, Deap Capital exchanged 59.1 million units worth N382.7 million, Access Holdings traded 57.2 million units valued at N1.3 billion, and Tantalizers transacted 48.6 million units worth N228.2 million.
Economy
Naira Retreats to N1,366.19/$1 After 13 Kobo Loss at Official Market
By Adedapo Adesanya
The value of the Naira contracted against the United States Dollar on Friday by 13 Kobo or 0.01 per cent to N1,366.19/$1 in the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEX) from the previous day’s value of N1,366.06/$1.
According to data from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), the Nigerian currency also depreciated against the Pound Sterling in the same market window yesterday by N2.37 to N1,857.75/£1 from the N1,855.38/£1 it was traded on Thursday, and further depleted against the Euro by 57 Kobo to close at N1,612.52/€1 versus the preceding session’s N1,611.95/€1.
In the same vein, the exchange rate for international transactions on the GTBank Naira card showed that the Naira lost N8 on the greenback yesterday to N1,383/$1 from the previous day’s N1,375/$1 and at the black market, the Nigerian currency maintained stability against the Dollar at N1,450/$1.
FX analysts anticipate this trend to persist, primarily influenced by increasing external reserves, renewed inflows of foreign portfolio investments, and a reduction in speculative demand.
In the short term, stability in the FX market is expected to continue, supported by policy interventions and improving market confidence.
Nigeria’s foreign reserves experienced an upward trajectory, increasing by $632.38 million within the week to $46.91 billion from $46.27 billion in the previous week.
The Dollar appreciation this week appears to be largely technical, serving as a correction to the substantial losses experienced from mid- to late January.
Meanwhile, the cryptocurrency market slightly appreciated, with Bitcoin (BTC) climbing near $68,000, up nearly 5 per cent since hitting $60,000 late on Thursday after investor confidence in crypto’s utility as a store of value, inflation hedge, and digital currency faltered.
The sell-off extended beyond crypto, with silver plunging 15 per cent and gold sliding more than 2 per cent. US stocks also fell.
The latest recoup saw the price of BTC up by 4.7 per cent to $67,978.96, as Ethereum (ETH) appreciated by 6.3 per cent to $2,021.10, and Ripple (XRP) surged by 9.5 per cent to $1.42.
In addition, Solana (SOL) grew by 7.3 per cent to $85.22, Cardano (ADA) added 6.1 per cent to trade at $0.2683, Dogecoin (DOGE) expanded by 5.4 per cent to $0.0958, Litecoin (LTC) rose by 5.2 per cent to $53.50, and Binance Coin (BNB) jumped by 2.3 per cent to $637.79, while the US Dollar Tether (USDT) and the US Dollar Coin (USDC) traded flat at $1.00 each.
Economy
Oil Prices Climb on Worries of Possible Iran-US Conflict
By Adedapo Adesanya
Oil prices settled higher on Friday as traders worried that this week’s talks between the US and Iran had failed to reduce the risk of a military conflict between the two countries.
Brent crude futures traded at $68.05 a barrel after going up by 50 cents or 0.74 per cent, and the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures finished at $63.55 a barrel due to the addition of 26 cents or 0.41 per cent.
Iran and the US held negotiations in Muscat, the capital of Oman, on Friday to overcome sharp differences over Iran’s nuclear programme.
It was reported that the talks had ended with Iran’s foreign minister saying negotiators will return to their capitals for consultations and the talks will continue.
Regardless, the meeting kept investors anxious about geopolitical risk, as Iran wanted to stick to nuclear issues while the US wanted to discuss Iran’s ballistic missiles and support for armed groups in the region.
Any escalation of tension between the two nations could disrupt oil flows, since about a fifth of the world’s total consumption passes through the Strait of Hormuz between Oman and Iran.
Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait and Iraq export most of their crude via the strait, as does Iran, which is a member of the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).
According to Reuters, Iran objected to the presence of any US Central Command (CENTCOM) or other regional military officials, saying that would jeopardise the process.
The current confrontation was sparked by more than two weeks of unrest in Iran that saw authorities launch a deadly crackdown that killed thousands of civilians and shocked the world. As reports of the deaths trickled out of Iran, US President Donald Trump threatened to strike Iran if any of the tens of thousands of protesters arrested were executed.
Meanwhile, Kazakhstan’s planned oil exports could fall by as much as 35 per cent this month via its main route through Russia, as the country’s top oil company, Tengiz oilfield, slowly recovers from fires at power facilities in January.
ING analysts have pointed out Iran’s neighbour, Iraq, and a disagreement with the US as another bullish factor for oil prices. It seems Iraqi politicians favour Mr Nouri al-Maliki as the country’s next Prime Minister, but the US thinks Mr al-Maliki is too close to Iran. President Trump has already threatened the oil producer with consequences if he emerges as PM.
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