Economy
Has Naira-settled OTC FX Futures Stabilized Naira Exchange Rate?
By Quantitative Financial Analytics Ltd
To stem the continued devaluation of the Naira and to breathe some air of stability into the ever-volatile Naira/Dollar relationship, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) introduced some far-reaching measures at different times.
One of such measures was the launching of the Naira-settled OTC FX Futures Market. That “history making” event which commenced on June 27, 2016 made the CBN “the pioneer seller of the Naira-settled OTC FX Futures contracts on the FMDQ OTC Securities Exchange (FMDQ)”.
Before the advent of the Naira-settled OTC FX Futures, various governments in Nigeria had been tinkering with the Naira exchange rate management using different policy driven methodologies at different times.
In 1986, the Exchange Rate Liberalization Policy was introduced and with it, the Naira was devalued officially for the very first time on September 26, 1986 to be specific. From that day till today, the Naira has been heading south.
Economic and financial historians have it that Nigerian governments have tried to manage the exchange rate with the Foreign Exchange (Monitoring & Miscellaneous Provisions) (FEMM) Act of 1995, the two-way Quote System (market making) in the inter-bank FX market in 1996 and the Wholesale Dutch Auction System (WDAS) in 2006.
Unfortunately, it seems none of those worked. It is therefore not surprising that the currency futures market has been put in place as a way to “stabilize” the Naira.
It is now almost two years since the Naira-settled OTC FX Futures market was introduced and the question is ‘how far it has gone in stabilizing the Naira/Dollar exchange rate?’
Though the Naira/Dollar exchange rate continues to remain high, it is a bit comforting that the new FX currency risk exposure management instrument, (the Naira-settled OTC FX Futures), has been able to curb or curtail the speed at which the Naira depreciates relative to the Dollar. At least, for over six months the rate has remained in the N360s to the $.
When used properly, Currency Futures are a veritable instrument of managing foreign currency risk exposure. This works well when there are buyers and sellers and probably not so well when there are buyers with the CBN as the only seller.
By definition, a futures contract is an agreement between two parties where one (the buyer) agrees to buy and the other, (the seller) agrees to sell a given amount of the underlying asset or subject of the contract, at an agreed price on future date.
A futures contract entails a long position by one party and a corresponding short position by another. It does look like the CBN is the seller or the short position party in the Naira-settled OTC FX futures contracts although it is not apparent who the long position parties are.
By their nature, futures are zero sum games. Futures do not involve an initial cash flow, meaning that money does not change hands at the initiation of the contract except where commissions are charged but subsequently, it becomes apparent how much the parties to a contract will pay/receive as the price of the underlying instruments change from day to day.
The method of determining the amount payable/receivable by either party is called marking to market, (the technicalities involved in mark to market calculation will not be part of this discuss).
Market Activity
It is noteworthy to point out that the Currency Futures market in Nigeria has been very active and vibrant since inception although the momentum seems to be reducing as rates converge.
On the date that the market went live, it recoded $26.73 million in open interest. As at April 6, 2018, the open interest had increased to $3,278.43 million, an increase of 12176 percent. This underscores the extent of Nigeria’s dependence on and demand for the dollar, among other implications.
The implication of this is also that, if the CBN is the only party that holds the short positions, it means that the CBN has contracted to sell $3,278.34 million to various parties over a range of period depending on the maturity dates of the contracts.
However, the Naira-settled OTC FX Futures are non-deliverable, meaning that the CBN is not going to sell or deliver $3,278.34 million to the long position holders; rather, the CBN will pay them the difference between the contract price and the NIFEX/NAFEX rate as at the maturity date of each futures contract.
It will be recalled that the first futures contract matured on July 27, 2016, and the CBN had to pay N962.23 million to the long position holder.
For the almost two years of existence of the FX Futures market in Nigeria, 21 of such contracts have matured. Looking at the contract prices of the open trades in relation with the current exchange rate, there is indication that the CBN will be at the paying end of the contracts.
According to analysis by analysts at Quantitative Financial Analytics, the total notional value of all contracts from inception to date is $11.743 billion while total matured contracts stand at $8.464 billion, leaving current outstanding open interest at $3.278 billion.
Out of the matured contracts, the short position holders (probably the CBN) have paid an estimated $503.8 million to the long position holders, according to the analysis.
As said before, currency futures are derivatives, and derivatives are high risk instruments, if used properly, they are beneficial but when misused, they can lead to catastrophe.
To a large extent and in most recent times, the FX currency futures market has helped in stabilizing the Naira Dollar exchange rate although the decreasing momentum arising from convergence of rates may diminish its role in managing the currency risk exposure of Nigerians. We are watching
By Aduragbemi Omiyale
Those interested in buying or selling the shares of Aluminium Extrusion Plc on the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited will not be able to do so for now.
This is because trading activities on the company’s securities on the Nigerian bourse have been suspended by the NGX Regulation Limited.
The reason for this is that the organisation has failed to submit its financial statements as required by the listing rules for the perusal of the investing community.
After being given grace periods to file the results, the board of the firm has not done the needful, necessitating the wielding of the stick on the entity.
A notice from Customs Street disclosed that the suspension became effective last Wednesday. It will be lifted when the financial results are submitted.
“In accordance with the default filing rules, the suspension of trading in the shares of the company shall be lifted upon the submission of the relevant financial statements,” a part of the notice said.
Business Post reports that Aluminium Extrusion has not filed its financial statements for the year ended December 31, 2025, more than three months after it was required to submit its financial performance for the last fiscal year.
“Trading license holders and the investing public are hereby notified that pursuant to Rule 3.1, Rules for Filing of Accounts and Treatment of Default Filing, (Default Filing Rules), which provides that if an issuer fails to file the relevant accounts by the expiration of the cure period1, the exchange will: a) send to the issuer a second filing deficiency notification within two business days after the end of the cure period; b) suspend trading in the issuer’s securities; and c) notify the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the market within 24 hours of the suspension.
“Trading in the shares of Aluminium Extrusion Plc has been suspended from the facilities of Nigerian Exchange Limited effective Wednesday, July 22, 2026, for not filing its Audited Financial Statements for the year ended December 31, 2025,” the disclosure stated.
Shares of Aluminium Extrusion last traded on the domestic stock exchange at N9.90 per unit.
By Dipo Olowookere
Last week on the floor of the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited, 57 equities appreciated, higher than 44 equities in the previous week, while 38 equities shed weight versus 35 equities in the preceding week, with 51 equities closing flat versus the 67 equities recorded a week earlier.
UPDC REIT chalked up 33.33 per cent to trade at N14.20, First Holdco gained 25.59 per cent to finish at N120.50, Unilever Nigeria rose by 19.31 per cent to N147.95, Cadbury Nigeria improved by 18.42 per cent to N67.50, and AXA Mansard expanded by 17.86 per cent to N13.20.
On the flip side, Mecure lost 26.97 per cent to N62.40, Royal Exchange shrank by 12.84 per cent to N1.29, Tripple Gee slumped by 12.34 per cent to N3.41, SUNU Assurances crumbled by 10.00 per cent to N3.60, and BUA Foods dropped 10.00 per cent to close at N845.10.
In the week, the All-Share Index (ASI) went up 1.60 per cent to 247,357.40 points, and the market capitalisation appreciated by 1.61 per cent to N159.588 trillion.
Similarly, all other indices finished higher with the exception of the consumer goods, Lotus II, growth, sovereign bond and commodity indices, which fell by 3.76 per cent, 1.55 per cent, 20.24 per cent, 0.14 per cent, and 1.25 per cent respectively.
As for the trading data, 4.433 billion shares worth N306.143 billion in 255,589 deals were transacted in five days versus the 2.819 billion shares valued at N182.499 billion traded in 226,729 deals in the previous week.
The financial services segment led the activity chart with 3.422 billion shares valued at N207.206 billion traded in 117,545 deals, contributing 77.18 per cent and 67.68 per cent to the total trading volume and value, respectively.
The consumer goods sector traded 201.978 million shares worth N17.171 billion in 28,666 deals, and the ICT industry posted a turnover of 169.481 million shares worth N21.194 billion in 23,107 deals.
First Holdco, Access Holdings, and GTCO accounted for 2.151 billion shares worth N170.793 billion in 44,768 deals, contributing 48.51 per cent and 55.79 per cent to the total trading volume and value, respectively.
By Adedapo Adesanya
Nigeria’s crude oil exports to the United States rebounded strongly in May as shipments rose by nearly 150 per cent month-on-month as American refiners increased purchases of overseas crude.
Latest data from the US Census Bureau showed that crude imports from Nigeria climbed to 2.36 million barrels in May, compared with 946,000 barrels recorded in April.
This indicated renewed demand for Nigeria’s premium light sweet grades amid shifting global patterns and higher international oil prices as the Middle East disruption weighed on trade.
The value of the imports also rose sharply to $279.8 million, up from $85.2 million in the previous month, reflecting both the higher volume of purchases and stronger crude oil prices during the period.
The rebound coincided with a broader increase in crude oil imports by the US.
According to the latest US International Trade in Goods and Services Report, total US crude imports increased by $1.5 billion in May, making crude oil one of the largest contributors to the $12.3 billion rise in overall goods imports during the month.
The report also showed that imports of industrial supplies and materials increased by $3.1 billion, with crude oil accounting for nearly half of the increase.
The recovery marks a significant turnaround after two consecutive months of declining Nigerian crude shipments to the US market. Export volumes had fallen from 4.64 million barrels in February to 1.54 million barrels in March, before dropping further to 946,000 barrels in April.
Despite the fluctuations, cumulative exports between January and May 2026 reached 11.15 million barrels, valued at approximately $926.6 million, reaffirming Nigeria’s strategic position as a key supplier of premium low-sulphur crude grades to the world’s largest economy.
Concerns surrounding crude shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s busiest oil transit routes, are encouraging refiners to increase purchases from Atlantic Basin producers such as Nigeria, whose crude grades offer lower geopolitical shipping risks than some Middle Eastern supplies.
Nigeria’s flagship crude grades, including Bonny Light, Qua Iboe and Escravos, remain highly sought after by US Gulf Coast refiners because of their low sulphur content and high yields of premium petroleum products such as petrol, diesel and aviation fuel.
Although the US has emerged as one of the world’s largest crude oil producers following the shale revolution, many American refineries continue to import light sweet crude to complement domestic production and optimise refining operations.
The rebound in exports also comes as Nigeria gradually restores crude production following improved security operations in the Niger Delta and intensified efforts by government agencies and operators to curb crude oil theft, pipeline vandalism and illegal refining.
