Economy
Has Naira-settled OTC FX Futures Stabilized Naira Exchange Rate?
By Quantitative Financial Analytics Ltd
To stem the continued devaluation of the Naira and to breathe some air of stability into the ever-volatile Naira/Dollar relationship, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) introduced some far-reaching measures at different times.
One of such measures was the launching of the Naira-settled OTC FX Futures Market. That “history making” event which commenced on June 27, 2016 made the CBN “the pioneer seller of the Naira-settled OTC FX Futures contracts on the FMDQ OTC Securities Exchange (FMDQ)”.
Before the advent of the Naira-settled OTC FX Futures, various governments in Nigeria had been tinkering with the Naira exchange rate management using different policy driven methodologies at different times.
In 1986, the Exchange Rate Liberalization Policy was introduced and with it, the Naira was devalued officially for the very first time on September 26, 1986 to be specific. From that day till today, the Naira has been heading south.
Economic and financial historians have it that Nigerian governments have tried to manage the exchange rate with the Foreign Exchange (Monitoring & Miscellaneous Provisions) (FEMM) Act of 1995, the two-way Quote System (market making) in the inter-bank FX market in 1996 and the Wholesale Dutch Auction System (WDAS) in 2006.
Unfortunately, it seems none of those worked. It is therefore not surprising that the currency futures market has been put in place as a way to “stabilize” the Naira.
It is now almost two years since the Naira-settled OTC FX Futures market was introduced and the question is ‘how far it has gone in stabilizing the Naira/Dollar exchange rate?’
Though the Naira/Dollar exchange rate continues to remain high, it is a bit comforting that the new FX currency risk exposure management instrument, (the Naira-settled OTC FX Futures), has been able to curb or curtail the speed at which the Naira depreciates relative to the Dollar. At least, for over six months the rate has remained in the N360s to the $.
When used properly, Currency Futures are a veritable instrument of managing foreign currency risk exposure. This works well when there are buyers and sellers and probably not so well when there are buyers with the CBN as the only seller.
By definition, a futures contract is an agreement between two parties where one (the buyer) agrees to buy and the other, (the seller) agrees to sell a given amount of the underlying asset or subject of the contract, at an agreed price on future date.
A futures contract entails a long position by one party and a corresponding short position by another. It does look like the CBN is the seller or the short position party in the Naira-settled OTC FX futures contracts although it is not apparent who the long position parties are.
By their nature, futures are zero sum games. Futures do not involve an initial cash flow, meaning that money does not change hands at the initiation of the contract except where commissions are charged but subsequently, it becomes apparent how much the parties to a contract will pay/receive as the price of the underlying instruments change from day to day.
The method of determining the amount payable/receivable by either party is called marking to market, (the technicalities involved in mark to market calculation will not be part of this discuss).
Market Activity
It is noteworthy to point out that the Currency Futures market in Nigeria has been very active and vibrant since inception although the momentum seems to be reducing as rates converge.
On the date that the market went live, it recoded $26.73 million in open interest. As at April 6, 2018, the open interest had increased to $3,278.43 million, an increase of 12176 percent. This underscores the extent of Nigeria’s dependence on and demand for the dollar, among other implications.
The implication of this is also that, if the CBN is the only party that holds the short positions, it means that the CBN has contracted to sell $3,278.34 million to various parties over a range of period depending on the maturity dates of the contracts.
However, the Naira-settled OTC FX Futures are non-deliverable, meaning that the CBN is not going to sell or deliver $3,278.34 million to the long position holders; rather, the CBN will pay them the difference between the contract price and the NIFEX/NAFEX rate as at the maturity date of each futures contract.
It will be recalled that the first futures contract matured on July 27, 2016, and the CBN had to pay N962.23 million to the long position holder.
For the almost two years of existence of the FX Futures market in Nigeria, 21 of such contracts have matured. Looking at the contract prices of the open trades in relation with the current exchange rate, there is indication that the CBN will be at the paying end of the contracts.
According to analysis by analysts at Quantitative Financial Analytics, the total notional value of all contracts from inception to date is $11.743 billion while total matured contracts stand at $8.464 billion, leaving current outstanding open interest at $3.278 billion.
Out of the matured contracts, the short position holders (probably the CBN) have paid an estimated $503.8 million to the long position holders, according to the analysis.
As said before, currency futures are derivatives, and derivatives are high risk instruments, if used properly, they are beneficial but when misused, they can lead to catastrophe.
To a large extent and in most recent times, the FX currency futures market has helped in stabilizing the Naira Dollar exchange rate although the decreasing momentum arising from convergence of rates may diminish its role in managing the currency risk exposure of Nigerians. We are watching
By Adedapo Adesanya
The NASD Over-the-Counter (OTC) Securities Exchange decreased by 0.53 per cent on a week-on-week basis in Week 17 of the 2025 trading year.
This depleted the market capitalisation of the bourse by N10.14 billion in the four-day trading week to N1.914 trillion from the N1.924 trillion recorded in the previous week and the NASD Unlisted Securities Index (NSI) slid by 17.32 points to 3,269.06 points from the 3,286.38 points posted in Week 16.
There were only four trading days last week due to the Easter break stretching into the new week, though the market witnessed a higher turnover.
The volume of securities bought and sold by the market participants soared by 293,055.9 per cent to 3.9 billion units from the 1.33 million units recorded a week earlier, and the value of shares skyrocketed by 33,661.6 per cent to N9.9 billion from the N29.35 million achieved in the preceding week.
The most traded security by value for the week was Infrastructure Credit Guarantee (InfraCredit) Plc with N9.5 billion, Geo-Fluids Plc recorded N355.4 million, FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc traded N7.2 million, Central Securities Clearing System (CSCS) Plc transacted N3.8 million, and Afriland Properties Plc posted N2.5 million.
Also, InfraCredit Plc was the most traded instrument by volume with 3.7 billion units, Geo-Fluids Plc transacted 207.7 million units, UBN Property Plc recorded 1.04 million units, FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc traded 0.201 million units, and CSCS Plc exchanged 0.178 million units.
Five securities ended on the losers’ table, with FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc leading after shedding 6.0 per cent to end at N35.37 per share compared with the previous week’s N37.64 per share.
Further, 11 Plc fell by 3.8 per cent to close at N236.25 per unit versus N245.50 per unit, UBN Property Plc lost 3.2 per cent to trade at N2.10 per share versus N2.17 per share, CSCS Plc declined by 1.8 per cent to N21.71 per unit from N22.10 per unit, and Afriland Properties Plc slumped by 0.1 per cent to N17.78 per share from N17.80 per share.
By Dipo Olowookere
A total of 1.854 billion shares worth N56.025 billion were transacted in 51,386 deals at the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited last week compared with the 1.525 billion shares valued at N43.006 billion traded a week earlier in 51,156 deals.
The market was opened for business in the week for four days because of the public holiday observed last Monday for Easter.
In the week, the financial services sector led the activity chart with 1.266 billion stocks valued at N29.400 billion exchanged in 24,351 deals, contributing 68.28 per cent and 52.48 per cent to the total trading volume and value, respectively.
The ICT industry followed with 136.707 million stocks worth N12.472 billion in 2,974 deals, and the consumer goods space traded 118.617 million equities for N4.415 billion in 5,869 deals.
The trio of Fidelity Bank, Access Holdings, and GTCO accounted for 797.873 million shares worth N22.043 billion in 8,618 deals, contributing 43.03 per cent and 39.34 per cent to the total trading volume and value, respectively.
Business Post reports that 64 equities appreciated in the four-day trading week versus 31 equities in the previous week, 27 equities depreciated versus 44 equities in the previous week, and 57 equities remained unchanged versus 72 equities recorded in the previous week.
International Breweries topped the gainers’ log with a 40 per cent rise to settle at N7.70, NASCON appreciated by 26.22 per cent to N52.95, Africa Prudential expanded by 25.64 per cent to N17.15, Vitafoam Nigeria rose by 21.22 per cent to N44.85, and Ikeja Hotel jumped by 21.00 per cent to N12.10.
On the flip side, VFD Group topped the losers’ chart with a decline of 82.19 per cent to trade at N17.10, John Holt lost 18.60 per cent to finish at N6.30, Dangote Cement shed 10.00 per cent to close at N432.00, Tripple Gee crashed by 10.00 per cent to N1.98, and Haldane McCall depreciated by 9.96 per cent to N4.70.
The All-Share Index (ASI) and the market capitalisation appreciated by 1.46 per cent and 1.47 per cent each to close at 105,752.61 points and N66.465 trillion, respectively.
Similarly, all other indices finished higher apart from the premium, energy, industrial goods, growth and sovereign bond indices, which depreciated by 0.43 per cent, 0.07 per cent, 3.44 per cent, 0.41 per cent and 0.06 per cent, respectively.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Nigeria Employers’ Consultative Association (NECA) has expressed its commitment to strengthening the Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs) ecosystem in Nigeria.
The Director-General of NECA, Mr Adewale Smatt Oyerinde, made the commitment while announcing the 2025 edition of the flagship MSMEs Fair scheduled to hold on Tuesday, May 6, 2025, at NECA House, Alausa, Lagos.
Mr Oyerinde said MSMEs are the lifeblood of the economy, noting that the Fair is designed to empower them with the tools, knowledge, and networks needed to thrive.
This year’s Fair will feature a keynote address by Mrs Adenike Adeyemi, CEO of FATE Foundation, a leading organization in enterprise development. Her address is expected to highlight innovative approaches to MSME sustainability and growth in Nigeria’s dynamic economy.
A major highlight of the fair will be the presence of key regulatory agencies, which will engage directly with entrepreneurs to address critical pain points around licensing, compliance, taxation, and business registration. This regulatory dialogue aims to demystify bureaucratic processes and promote a more enabling environment for enterprise development.
Themed Galvanizing MSMEs for Economic Growth and Stability, the event will bring together financiers, tech experts, regulators, and business leaders to offer practical insights, strategic guidance, and real-time business support to participants. Entrepreneurs will have the opportunity to exhibit their products and services, engage with potential investors, and connect with stakeholders across various sectors.
The fair will also feature exhibitions by entrepreneur across sectors, which will give them the opportunity to showcase their products and services to the public.
The programme offers entrepreneurs a platform to be enlightened on business development strategies, digital transformation, access to finance, and market expansion—equipping MSMEs with actionable knowledge for long-term success.
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