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Has Naira-settled OTC FX Futures Stabilized Naira Exchange Rate?

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naira and dollar

By Quantitative Financial Analytics Ltd

To stem the continued devaluation of the Naira and to breathe some air of stability into the ever-volatile Naira/Dollar relationship, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) introduced some far-reaching measures at different times.

One of such measures was the launching of the Naira-settled OTC FX Futures Market. That “history making” event which commenced on June 27, 2016 made the CBN “the pioneer seller of the Naira-settled OTC FX Futures contracts on the FMDQ OTC Securities Exchange (FMDQ)”.

Before the advent of the Naira-settled OTC FX Futures, various governments in Nigeria had been tinkering with the Naira exchange rate management using different policy driven methodologies at different times.

In 1986, the Exchange Rate Liberalization Policy was introduced and with it, the Naira was devalued officially for the very first time on September 26, 1986 to be specific. From that day till today, the Naira has been heading south.

Economic and financial historians have it that Nigerian governments have tried to manage the exchange rate with the Foreign Exchange (Monitoring & Miscellaneous Provisions) (FEMM) Act of 1995, the two-way Quote System (market making) in the inter-bank FX market in 1996 and the Wholesale Dutch Auction System (WDAS) in 2006.

Unfortunately, it seems none of those worked. It is therefore not surprising that the currency futures market has been put in place as a way to “stabilize” the Naira.

It is now almost two years since the Naira-settled OTC FX Futures market was introduced and the question is ‘how far it has gone in stabilizing the Naira/Dollar exchange rate?’

Though the Naira/Dollar exchange rate continues to remain high, it is a bit comforting that the new FX currency risk exposure management instrument, (the Naira-settled OTC FX Futures), has been able to curb or curtail the speed at which the Naira depreciates relative to the Dollar. At least, for over six months the rate has remained in the N360s to the $.

When used properly, Currency Futures are a veritable instrument of managing foreign currency risk exposure. This works well when there are buyers and sellers and probably not so well when there are buyers with the CBN as the only seller.

By definition, a futures contract is an agreement between two parties where one (the buyer) agrees to buy and the other, (the seller) agrees to sell a given amount of the underlying asset or subject of the contract, at an agreed price on future date.

A futures contract entails a long position by one party and a corresponding short position by another. It does look like the CBN is the seller or the short position party in the Naira-settled OTC FX futures contracts although it is not apparent who the long position parties are.

By their nature, futures are zero sum games. Futures do not involve an initial cash flow, meaning that money does not change hands at the initiation of the contract except where commissions are charged but subsequently, it becomes apparent how much the parties to a contract will pay/receive as the price of the underlying instruments change from day to day.

The method of determining the amount payable/receivable by either party is called marking to market, (the technicalities involved in mark to market calculation will not be part of this discuss).

Market Activity

It is noteworthy to point out that the Currency Futures market in Nigeria has been very active and vibrant since inception although the momentum seems to be reducing as rates converge.

On the date that the market went live, it recoded $26.73 million in open interest. As at April 6, 2018, the open interest had increased to $3,278.43 million, an increase of 12176 percent. This underscores the extent of Nigeria’s dependence on and demand for the dollar, among other implications.

The implication of this is also that, if the CBN is the only party that holds the short positions, it means that the CBN has contracted to sell $3,278.34 million to various parties over a range of period depending on the maturity dates of the contracts.

However, the Naira-settled OTC FX Futures are non-deliverable, meaning that the CBN is not going to sell or deliver $3,278.34 million to the long position holders; rather, the CBN will pay them the difference between the contract price and the NIFEX/NAFEX rate as at the maturity date of each futures contract.

It will be recalled that the first futures contract matured on July 27, 2016, and the CBN had to pay N962.23 million to the long position holder.

For the almost two years of existence of the FX Futures market in Nigeria, 21 of such contracts have matured. Looking at the contract prices of the open trades in relation with the current exchange rate, there is indication that the CBN will be at the paying end of the contracts.

According to analysis by analysts at Quantitative Financial Analytics, the total notional value of all contracts from inception to date is $11.743 billion while total matured contracts stand at $8.464 billion, leaving current outstanding open interest at $3.278 billion.

Out of the matured contracts, the short position holders (probably the CBN) have paid an estimated $503.8 million to the long position holders, according to the analysis.

As said before, currency futures are derivatives, and derivatives are high risk instruments, if used properly, they are beneficial but when misused, they can lead to catastrophe.

To a large extent and in most recent times, the FX currency futures market has helped in stabilizing the Naira Dollar exchange rate although the decreasing momentum arising from convergence of rates may diminish its role in managing the currency risk exposure of Nigerians. We are watching

Aduragbemi Omiyale is a journalist with Business Post Nigeria, who has passion for news writing. In her leisure time, she loves to read.

Economy

Waltersmith Plans 30,000bpd Condensate Refinery, Industry Park

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Waltersmith Refinery

By Adedapo Adesanya

Waltersmith Refining and Petrochemical Company Limited has announced plans to commence two further phases of expansion, which will include the construction of a 30,000-barrel-per-day condensate refinery and an industry park that will accommodate other gas-based firms.

The chairman of Waltersmith Petroman, Mr Abdulrazak Isa, revealed this during a visit of the Executive Secretary of the Nigerian Content Development and Monitoring Board (NCDMB), Mr Felix Omatsola Ogbe, and the chief executive of the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA), Mr Saidu Mohammed, to the Waltersmith modular refinery at Ohaji- Egbema, Imo State.

Mr Isa said the firm would develop a gas line that would deliver 100 million standard cubic feet of gas per day, and provide an embedded captive power, to attract industries to co-locate in the industrial park.

Plans are afoot to conclude the partnership agreement for the condensate refinery by the 4th quarter of 2026, he said, adding that feedstock for the integrated expansions will come from the Ibigwe and Assa fields, as well as from nearby fields.

The chairman underlined the company’s determination to invest in the petrochemical sector, leveraging its access to gas and Naphtha, noting that the petrochemical industry is a key enabler of the economy.

He sought approvals from the NMDRA for the various stages of the upcoming developments.

The visit was to inspect the newly completed expansion of the firm’s refining capacity, from 5,000 barrels per day to 10,000 barrels per day.

NCDMB invested equity in Waltersmith Refining and Petrochemical Company Limited’s modular refinery in 2018 and helped catalyse the investment, leading to the commissioning of the first phase of the plant in November 2020.

NCDMB also participated in the expansion, which is now completed and operational, producing AGO (diesel), Household kerosine (HHK), HFO (Heavy Fuel Oil) and Naphtha.

The refinery has to date supplied over 1.1 billion litres of refined products to local and regional markets, helping to strengthen Nigeria’s and West Africa’s energy security and contributing immensely to the national economy. The refinery supplies most of its products to the South-East and South-South parts of the country, while the HFO gets to the West African sub-region.

On his part, Mr Mohammed expressed his delight at the success of the facility and promised the agency’s support to the company’s expansion plans, saying the midstream sector of the petroleum industry holds the key to the nation’s economic development, adding that the establishment of such projects is the dream of every administration.

He described Waltersmith as an octopus in the midstream sector and challenged the company to hasten the development of the condensate refinery. Mohammed also commended NCDMB for partnering with Waltersmith to develop the project, which had become a runaway success.

The Director of Legal Services at NCDMB, Mr Naboth Onyesoh, who represented the organisation’s scribe, conveyed the board’s delight at the success of Waltersmith modular refinery, describing the company as a model in local content implementation, especially in direct and indirect job creation, capital retention, industrialisation, import substitution and value addition to crude oil and gas resources.

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Economy

46 Stocks Gain Weight, 53 Equities Lose on NGX in One Week

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NGX investors

By Dipo Olowookere

The Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited was bullish last week despite investors’ mood swing, triggered by happenings in the country and across the globe, especially the Middle East crisis.

The All-Share Index (ASI) and the market capitalisation appreciated week-on-week by 3.94 per cent to 225,722.49 points and N145.335 trillion, respectively.

Similarly, all other indices finished higher with the exception of the growth and commodity indices, which depreciated by 0.02 per cent and 0.41 per cent, respectively, while the sovereign bond index closed flat.

A look at the price changes of shares in the five-day trading week showed that

46 stocks gained weight versus 61 stocks of the previous week, 53 equities shed weight compared with 36 equities a week earlier, and 47 shares closed flat, in contrast to 49 shares of the preceding week.

UAC Nigeria led the gainers’ chart after it chalked up 42.00 per cent to trade at N142.00, Union Dicon appreciated by 32.73 per cent to N21.90, NASCON expanded by 32.63 per cent to N206.90, Trans-Nationwide Express rose by 30.58 per cent to N7.90, and Zichis improved by 25.71 per cent to N15.60.

On the flip side, Infinity Trust Mortgage Bank led the losers’ group after it gave up 50.79 per cent to close at N9.35, Abbey Mortgage Bank declined by 33.33 per cent to N5.40, Guinea Insurance slipped by 15.20 per cent to N1.06, Stanbic IBTC lost 13.82 per cent to settle at N162.50, and Living Trust Mortgage Bank slumped by 10.98 per cent to N3.65.

As for the activity log, Customs Street recorded a turnover of 3.805 billion shares worth N213.955 billion in 297,202 deals in the week compared with 3.588 billion shares valued at N195.313 billion transacted in 254,553 deals in the previous week.

Financial stocks led the activity chart with 2.739 billion units sold for N106.269 billion in 135,101 deals, contributing 71.99 per cent and 49.67 per cent to the total trading volume and value, respectively.

Services equities traded 212.324 million units worth N4.024 billion in 17,042 deals, and consumer goods shares exchanged 180.076 million units valued at N13.269 billion in 32,457 deals.

Access Holdings, UBA, and First Holdco were the busiest with 814.060 million units traded for N39.032 billion in 37,195 deals, contributing 21.40 per cent and 18.24 per cent to the total equity turnover volume and value, respectively.

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Economy

NGX Group’s 65th Annual General Meeting Holds April 29

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NGX Group Shares

By Aduragbemi Omiyale

The 65th Annual General Meeting (AGM) of the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Group Plc has been fixed for Wednesday, April 29, 2026, at 11:00 am at its corporate head office on 2–4 Customs Street, Lagos.

Business Post gathered that the meeting would be streamed live on the company’s website and social media platforms to enable broader participation by shareholders and stakeholders unable to attend physically.

As part of a special business, shareholders will consider a proposed bonus issue of one new ordinary share for every three existing shares held as at the close of business on April 10, 2026, subject to regulatory approvals.

The proposal also includes an increase in the organisation’s share capital from N1,102,309,954 to N1,469,746,605, to accommodate the bonus shares and amendments to the Memorandum of Association to reflect the new capital structure.

Also at the gathering, shareholders will consider and, if deemed fit, approve the company’s audited financial statements for the year ended December 31, 2025, alongside the reports of the directors, auditors, board evaluation consultants, and audit committee.

The meeting will also deliberate on the declaration of a final dividend and the re-election of three non-executive directors retiring by rotation, who are Mr Umaru Kwairanga, Mrs Ojinika Olaghere, and Dr Okechukwu Itanyi.

Other ordinary business items on the agenda include authorising the board to fix the remuneration of the external auditors, determining the remuneration of managers, and electing members of the statutory audit committee.

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