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Economy

Fitch Returns Nigeria’s Outlook to Stable, Forecasts 2% GDP Growth

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Fitch Ratings

**Says Inflation to Remain at Double Digits through 2019

**Debt to Hits 292% of Revenue

**Buhari Expected to Continue Economic Programme if Re-elected

By Dipo Olowookere

The outlook on Nigeria’s Long-Term Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) has been reviewed upward to stable nearly six months after it was dropped to negative by Fitch Ratings.

In a statement dated November 2, 2018, the global rating agency said it also affirmed its rating on Nigeria at ‘B+’.

According to Fitch, the revision of the outlook on Nigeria’s Long-Term IDRs reflects the ongoing economic recovery and decreasing external vulnerabilities, both supported by increased oil production and higher global oil prices.

It noted that despite setbacks, the Nigerian economy is continuing its slow recovery from the recession that ended in early 2017.

Fitch pointed out that non-oil growth has been supported by an increase in the supply of foreign exchange and will receive an additional boost as the government begins its delayed implementation of the 2018 capital budget.

“Political uncertainty ahead of the general election scheduled for February 2019 may lead to some weakening in growth, but we expect any disruption to be short-lived,” the statement obtained by Business Post said.

It added that the contribution of the oil sector has been positive in the first half of 2018 as oil production, including condensates, has averaged just below 2.1 million barrels per day (mbpd), compared with 1.9 mbpd in 2017.

Fitch said it expects average production of crude oil in Nigeria to remain around 2.1 mbpd through 2018 and 1H19.

Fitch is forecasting a GDP growth of 2 percent overall in 2018, increasing to 2.5 percent in 2019 and 3.3 percent in 2020, and the agency expects that Nigeria’s medium-term growth will average around 4 percent.

It noted that oil production will increase as new exploration and oil infrastructure projects begin to come online, but emphasised that Nigeria will struggle to raise production to the levels envisaged in the 2019-2021 Medium Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF).

Fitch said high inflation has been a rating weakness, but CPI growth slowed to 11.3 percent year-on-year in September 2018, down from a recent peak of 18.7 percent in January 2017.

Inflation fell rapidly in 1Q18, but disinflation has slowed since, as base effects fade and conflicts between herders and farmers affect food supplies.

Fitch said it expects that annual average inflation will fall, but remain in the double digits through 2019.

“Despite falling inflation, Fitch expects that the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) will move towards tighter monetary policy to support FX rate stability,” the firm said.

The CBN has kept the monetary policy rate at 14 percent since May 2016, but has conducted monetary policy through its sales of Open Market Operation bills and by managing the reserve ratio.

Foreign currency availability has improved although Fitch believes that it remains a constraint on economic growth. The CBN continues to operate an FX regime with multiple windows and exchange rates, which will not change before the general elections. However, the wholesale interbank FX rate has depreciated, bringing it closer to the rate at the Investors and Exporters window.

Nigeria has increased its stock of international reserves to $44.6 billion (7.2 months of current external payments) as of September 2018, from $37.9 billion at end-2017.

The accumulation of reserves has been a function of both an increase in oil export receipts and an increase in inflow of foreign investments.

The rating agency said Nigeria’s external flows are exposed to global risk sentiments as well as to investor’s views on the country’s political and fiscal developments. However, the build-up of reserves provides a substantial external buffer.

“Nigeria’s ‘B+’ IDRs also reflect the country’s position as Africa’s largest economy and its well-developed domestic debt markets, balanced against low levels of domestic revenue mobilisation and of GDP per capita, a high level of hydrocarbon dependence, and low rankings on governance and business environment indicators.

“Nigeria continues to run persistent fiscal deficits at both the central and general government levels. Fitch forecasts a general government deficit of 4.3 percent of GDP in 2018, approximately the same as 2017.

“The government’s 2019-2022 Medium Term Expenditure Framework envisages a decrease in expenditure following three straight years of increasing capital expenditure. Lower expenditure, as a percentage of GDP, will help the general government fiscal deficit to narrow to 4 percent of GDP in 2019, but the government will continue to experience difficulty in raising non-oil domestic revenue.

“Oil revenue has increased since hitting bottom in 2016, but volatile production levels and inefficiencies within the petroleum sector have limited the transmission of higher oil prices to higher government revenue,” the statement said.

It added that Nigeria’s general government debt will rise to 292 percent of revenue, well above the historical ‘B’ median of 205 percent of revenue, reflecting the accumulation of new debt and the lack of progress on raising government revenue.

At 20 percent of general government revenue, interest payments are already more than twice the ‘B’ median. Federal government interest expenditure to federal government revenue stands much higher at just below 60 percent, the company stated.

“Fitch forecasts Nigeria’s current account (CA) surplus to widen to 3.6 percent of GDP in 2018 as oil export receipts have grown thanks to high oil prices. The CA surplus will narrow in subsequent years as import growth increases following several years of import compression related to tight foreign exchange supply. Nigeria is a net external creditor equivalent to 12 percent of GDP in 2018.

Fitch considers that the easing of foreign-currency liquidity has reduced risks regarding Nigerian banks’ ability to meet dollar liabilities and external debt repayments. However, economic headwinds have continued to affect asset quality.

“Average industry NPLs (according to CBN data) increased to 15 percent at end-2017, reflecting the lag affect from 2015. NPLs are concentrated in the oil and gas sector. The ongoing economic recovery, higher oil prices and widespread loan restructuring is likely to moderately help asset quality, but high NPLs will weigh on private sector credit provision.

“Credit to the private sector returned to modest positive growth in 2018 after tight domestic liquidity and crowding out from government borrowing led to a contraction of 5 percent through November 2017,” the firm said.

It was stressed that the outcome of the upcoming general elections remains uncertain. President Buhari will face a strong challenge from former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, who won the October 2018 primary to be the People’s Democratic Party candidate. Abubakar has made limited statements regarding his economic policy platform, but has criticised the current FX regime and has also signalled his support for devolving more control over public finances to the state governments.

“If Buhari is re-elected, we expect his government to continue implementing the economic programme outlined in the Economic Recovery and Growth Plan released in March 2017.

“Fitch does not expect widespread disruption or instability around the election. However, a flare-up of violence in the Niger Delta around the elections presents downside risk to the fiscal, external and GDP growth forecasts,” the rating agency stated.

Dipo Olowookere is a journalist based in Nigeria that has passion for reporting business news stories. At his leisure time, he watches football and supports 3SC of Ibadan. Mr Olowookere can be reached via [email protected]

Economy

Sources of Business Finance in Nigeria: Types and Options

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sources of business finance

Finance may be the single most essential element when it comes to the progress and sustainability of businesses in Nigeria. The level of funding available to businesses, small and big, determines their ability to function, grow, and compete. The Nigerian business environment, due to the interplay between the local economy, financial institutions, government, and private investors, offers multiple financing opportunities. The dynamics of these financing opportunities helps business owners and managers make the right decisions that best respond to their objectives and the level of risk they are willing to take.

Start your Livescorebet registration and discover more as this article analyzes the different sources of business finance in Nigeria in a systematic and detailed manner. It defines and explains internal and external financing options and the criteria relevant businesses may use in their search for the best financing instrument.

Understanding Sources of Business Finance

Before one can delve into the different options of business financing available, it is important to define business finances and categorize it. The objective of this is to establish a foundation for understanding the extent to which some options may be more appropriate for different businesses than others.

What Are Sources of Finance?

Sources of finance are how a business acquires funds to begin activities, settle daily operations, or pay for additional business activities like acquisitions, expansions, and long-term projects. Businesses may need to finance the purchase of new equipment, hire and pay additional staff, manage business cash flow, develop new products, or finance the expenses required to enter or compete in new markets.

In Nigeria, the Sources of finance are determined by interest rates, availability of bank services, regulations, and the growth stage of capital markets, among other things. A business may use its own cash resources, borrow from a financial institution, receive funds from an investor, or receive a government grant or other government-funded assistance program. Each of these also offers different-related costs, obligations, and levels of control.

Types of Finance: Major Categories

Business finance is typically subdivided into two larger subsets: internal finance, and external finance. Internal finance is from the business and its resources; external finance is from third parties.

The classification of finance by time is also an option. Short-term finance is used for the working capital needs like inventory and operational expenses. Medium-term finance is used for the purchase of an asset like a machine. Long-term finance is used for significant investments like expansion or infrastructure. These classifications often overlap with internal and external sources and help a business structure their financing efficiently.

Key Principles and Examples

Cost is the most influential principle when it comes to the choice and method of utilizing finance. Aspects like interest and dividends affect profitability. Additionally, other opportunity costs must also be focused on. Another principle is risk. Increased borrowing equates to an increase in financial obligations. Control and flexibility are also essential, especially in terms of the original decision makers.

For instance, a small retail shop could potentially rely on the profits previously obtained to purchase stock and restock their shelf. On the other hand, a manufacturing business may need to obtain a bank loan in addition to leasing an arrangement in order to get the needed equipment. These principles must be understood so that finance can be used to support the objectives of the company.

Internal Sources of Business Finance

Internal sources of finance are the finance obtained within a business without the need of external lenders or investors. These sources are often preferred as with them, the business relies a minimal amount on external parties to minimize financial risk.

retained earnings

Retained Earnings

Profits that a company reinvests rather than giving out to owners or stockholders is called retained earnings. Within Nigeria, retained earnings is a common type of financing for SMEs that do not have access to external funding.

This type of financing is cost effective as it does not incur interest or have repayment schedules. Retained earnings financing ensures owners have complete operational control. However, retained earnings depend on profitability, meaning they can be limited or unavailable for new businesses or those that are struggling. Overreliance on retained earnings can also slow expansion if significant capital is needed for growth.

Ordinary (Equity) Shares

For incorporated businesses, it is understood that issuing ordinary shares is considered an internal source if funding is collected from existing owners/shareholders. When an owner nets additional funding, they are strengthening the business’ finances without taking on additional debt.

Equity shares do not have to be paid back, relieving some pressure from cash outflows. This does mean that ownership and profit rights, in the form of dividends, will be repealed. Equity financing in Nigeria is more prevalent in larger businesses and startups with growth potential, especially those that are preparing for future investment rounds or new public listings.

Other Internal Sources

The other internal sources include the streamlining of cash flows, the sale of unused assets, and the reduction of working capital. For instance, a business might dispose of old vehicles or equipment to obtain cash for more productive investments. Likewise, enhanced control of inventories and the speedy collection of receivables can liberate cash for other operational uses.

The techniques described here are often undervalued, especially since they provide short-term relief without incurring external liabilities. Nevertheless, the main limitation of these techniques is scale. They are unlikely to provide the necessary funds to sustain larger projects.

External Sources of Business Finance

External sources imply sourcing funds from outside the business. These sources are particularly necessary for new ventures and rapidly expanding businesses as well as for capital intensive industries.

Bank Lending

Bank lending is, and continues to be, a major source of business finance in Nigeria. Commercial banks, microfinance banks, and development finance institutions all grant businesses loans, overdrafts, and other credit facilities.

Bank loans are easier to obtain and can provide in a short time big amounts of money, making them more attractive for funding major business expansions and for acquisition of new assets. However, such loans are usually associated with a range of challenges such as high-interest rates and demands for strict repayment periods and collateral. Many Nigerian SMEs do not easily gain access to such bank credit due to their limited credit history and insufficient collateral.

loan stock

Loan Stock

Loan stock is a long-term debt financial instrument provided by companies to obtain funding from customers and pays a fixed interest and is repaid after a determined time. In Nigeria debt stock is more prevalent with large established companies.

A loan stock has the benefit of providing long-term financing without losing partial company control. But the financial risk of the company rising during poor economic times increases, as loan interest rates must always be paid.

Venture Capital

Venture capital, funds provided by the investors of a business with the potential of high growth, is in exchange for equity. Venture capital in Nigeria is more common in technology, fintech, and agri-business.

Venture capitalists do not just provide funding; they also provide their experience in the field, their connections, as well as their planning and do-adding-knowledge, making it highly beneficial for new companies. However, these investors more often than not expect the high amounts of profit; therefore, a greater stake of their ownership of the valuable business is lost.

Leasing and Hire Purchase

Hire purchase and leasing, in asset financing, provide the means for firms to use equipment without the need to make the full payment for the equipment up front. Leasing allows the renting of a fixed-term asset, while hire purchase enables the attainment of the full ownership of the asset after making a series of payment installments.

These techniques are common in Nigeria for acquiring college textbooks, vehicles, office technology, etc. These techniques allow one to maintain positive cash flow, while avoiding large capital expenses. The main disadvantage is the total expenditure is higher than buying the item outright.

Government Assistance and Grants

The government of Nigeria, through its various agencies, has a wide range of funding programs aimed at supporting businesses, particularly for Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) and start-ups, which come in the form of grants, subsidised loans, and intervention funds.

When it comes to government assistance, there are lower interest rates for longer periods of time, more flexibility for the beneficiary. However, the availability of such assistance is often restricted, which is often accompanied by complex application procedures and lengthy delays. At the end of the day, although there is a lack of availability, government funding is still a major contributor to the country’s entrepreneurship base development and the economy’s overall growth.

Franchising

From a financing standpoint, franchising is a business model where an entrepreneur receives the right to operate a business under a specified brand for a fee or royalty. While it is not a direct cash resource, the model helps startup a business with lower risk and reduces the financing needed as it comes with brand recognition and an established business system.

In Nigeria, franchising is an approach that is widely adopted, particularly in the food services and hospitality industries. It is especially helpful to startups, as they do not need to build a business model from scratch, and if they need it, the franchising becomes a solid base for acquiring additional funds.

How to Choose the Right Source of Finance

How to choose the right Source of Finance will need balancing what the business needs, how much money is available, and the other goals they want to accomplish over time, since finance refers to how a business entity plans to raise funds from various sources of finance to support business operations and long-term business development.

business finance

Step-by-Step Approach to Choosing a Source of Finance

The first thing to do is say what the finance will go towards. Will it be designed to go towards working capital, purchasing raw materials, buying new assets like a new factory, or is it going to be used for expanding into new markets and securing capital for growth? After that, the company decides how much money it will need and how long it will need it for. This helps clarify whether the required sources of funds fall under short-term sources, often needed within one year, or long-term sources used to finance strategic investments.

The 3rd thing to do is to look at the advantages and disadvantages of each funding option, including risks and costs. Some of these will be interest payments, specific repayment terms, and whether financing involves debt or equity financing, which may dilute ownership or preserve the owner’s control. The business must assess if it will rely on borrowed funds, a secured loan, or equity capital, and whether it can manage repayment with interest, including principal and interest, without risking default or bankruptcy. In the end, the business should look at what it will be able to do and whether it should mix together a few main sources from various sources of finance to meet different business needs.

Factors Affecting the Need for Finance

There is a range of different reasons, that can affect the decisions that are made. Things like how big the business and what point in its lifecycle it’s at, which sector it’s in, and how stable its cash flow is. A new business is likely to need finance in the form of equity and government programs while an older company will likely go for a bank loan or use the money that is already in the company.

The economic climate will also have an influence on the cost and availability of finance in a certain country. Things like inflation and interest rates can make it more difficult to get finance in a certain country. Also the absence of certain regulations and the rules that have to be followed will affect what kind of external finance can be used or what type of external finance will be available.

Comparing Major Sources at a Glance

Internal sources lack scale but are less risky and cheaper. External sources are costly and more risky but can provide larger amounts. Equity financing is less risky in terms of repayments but ownership is diluted, while in debt financing, control is maintained but the risk is higher. Businesses need to understand these trade-offs to incorporate financing into their business strategy.

Conclusion

There are several sources of business finance in Nigeria, and these continue diversifying with the progress of the economy and the financial sector. Each of these sources, from internal such as retained earnings, to external like bank lending, government programs, and venture capital, are tailored to address specific business requirements.

This understanding enables entrepreneurs, managers to make accurate and timely decisions, mitigate risks, and facilitate growth. The optimal level of financing is more than a simple matter of availability as is often the case with entrepreneurs, but ensuring the financial architecture of the business is coherent with its objectives in the long term.

FAQs

What is the difference between internal and external sources of finance?

Internal sources are from the business itself like retained earnings and selling of assets, while external sources are from outside the business like banks, investors and government programs. Internal finance poses less risk, but external finance allows access to much larger funds.

How can startups access venture capital in Nigeria?

Accessing venture capital entails constructing sound business models, designing robust business plans, and then forming relationships with investors through incubators, accelerators, and other platforms. A clear organizational structure and the ability to catalyze substantial interest are invaluable.

What are the advantages of retained earnings as a source of finance?

The cost of retained earnings as a source of finance is low, as money does not need to be repaid. Furthermore, the business owner does not need to share control over the company. Retained earnings are also complementary to the financial position of the business. On the downside, retained earnings can only be used if a business is profitable, and may restrict growth if insufficient profits are generated.

How does leasing differ from hire purchase?

When leasing, a company can use an asset for a specified period of time, but ownership stays with the original owner. In hire purchase agreements, a business can use an asset for a specified time but takes ownership after making the required payment. A leasing agreement is flexible but hire purchase agreements are better for a purchase where an ownership is intended.

What government programs are available for business funding in Nigeria?

The Nigerian government, through its development finance institutions and government agencies, provides a wide range of activities, including lending to small and medium enterprises, offering intervention funds, as well as providing grants. These activities aim to support entrepreneurial activities, stimulate job creation, and develop specific sectors.

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Economy

LCCI Raises Eyebrow Over N15.52trn Debt Servicing Plan in 2026 Budget

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domestic debt servicing

By Adedapo Adesanya

The Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry (LCCI) has noted that the N15.52 trillion allocation to debt servicing in the 2026 budget remains a significant fiscal burden.

LCCI Director-General, Mrs Chinyere Almona, said this on Tuesday in Lagos via a statement in reaction to the nation’s 2026 budget of N58.18 trillion, hinging the success of the 2026 budget on execution discipline, capital efficiency, and sustained support for productive sectors.

She noted that the budget was a timely shift from macroeconomic stabilisation to growth acceleration, reflecting growing confidence in the economy.

She lauded its emphasis on production-oriented spending, with capital expenditure of N26.08 trillion, representing 45 per cent of total outlays, and significantly outweighing non-debt recurrent expenditure of N15.25 trillion.

According to Mrs Almona, this composition supports infrastructure development, industrial expansion, and productivity growth.

However, she explained that the N15.52 trillion allocation to debt servicing underscored the need for stricter borrowing discipline, enhanced revenue efficiency, and expanded public-private partnerships to safeguard investments that promote growth.

She added that a further review of the 2026 budget revealed relatively optimistic macroeconomic assumptions that may pose fiscal risks.

“The oil price benchmark of $64.85 per barrel, although lower than the $75.00 benchmark in the 2025 budget, appears optimistic when compared with the 2025 average price of about $69.60 per barrel and current prices around $60 per barrel.

“This raises downside risks to oil revenue, especially since 35.6 per cent of the total projected revenue is expected to come from oil receipts.

“Similarly, the oil production benchmark of 1.84 million barrels per day is significantly higher than the current level of approximately 1.49 million barrels per day.

“Achieving this may be challenging without substantial improvements in security, infrastructure integrity, and sector investment,” she said.

Mrs Almona said the exchange rate assumption of N1,512 to the Dollar, compared with N1,500 in the 2025 budget and about N1,446 per Dollar at the end of November, suggests expectations of a mild depreciation.

She said while this may support Naira-denominated revenue, it also increases the cost of imports, debt servicing, and inflation management, with broader macroeconomic implications.

The LCCI DG added that the inflation projection of 16.5 per cent in 2026, up from 15.8 per cent in the 2025 budget and a current rate of about 14.45 per cent, appeared optimistic, particularly in a pre-election year.

She also expressed concern about Nigeria’s historically weak budget implementation capacity, likely to be further strained by the combined operation of multiple budget cycles within a single year.

Looking ahead, Mrs Almona identified agriculture and agro-processing, manufacturing, infrastructure, energy, and human capital development as key drivers of growth in 2026.

She said that unlocking these sectors would require decisive execution—scaling irrigation and agro-value chains, reducing power and logistics costs for manufacturers, and aligning education and skills development with private-sector needs.

The LCCI head stressed the need to resolve issues surrounding the Naira for crude, increase the supply of oil to local refineries to boost local refining capacity and conserve the substantial foreign exchange used for fuel imports.

“Overall, the 2026 Budget presents a credible opportunity for Nigeria to transition from recovery to expansion.

“Its success will depend less on the size of allocations and more on execution discipline, capital efficiency, and sustained support for productive sectors.

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Economy

Customs Street Chalks up 0.12% on Santa Claus Rally

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Customs Street Nigerian Stock Exchange

By Dipo Olowookere

The Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited witnessed Santa Claus rally on Wednesday after it closed higher by 0.12 per cent.

Strong demand for Nigerian stocks lifted the All-Share Index (ASI) by 185.70 points during the pre-Christmas trading session to 153,539.83 points from 153,354.13 points.

In the same vein, the market capitalisation expanded at midweek by N118 billion to N97.890 trillion from the preceding day’s N97.772 trillion.

Investor sentiment on Customs Street remained bullish after closing with 36 appreciating equities and 22 depreciating equities, indicating a positive market breadth index.

Guinness Nigeria chalked up 9.98 per cent to trade at N318.60, Austin Laz improved by 9.97 per cent to N3.20, International Breweries expanded by 9.85 per cent to N14.50, Transcorp Hotels rose by 9.83 per cent to N170.90, and Aluminium Extrusion grew by 9.73 per cent to N16.35.

On the flip side, Legend Internet lost 9.26 per cent to close at N4.90, AXA Mansard shrank by 7.14 per cent to N13.00, Jaiz Bank declined by 5.45 per cent to N4.51, MTN Nigeria weakened by 5.21 per cent to N504.00, and NEM Insurance crashed by 4.74 per cent to N24.10.

Yesterday, a total of 1.8 billion shares valued at N30.1 billion exchanged hands in 19,372 deals versus the 677.4 billion shares worth N20.8 billion traded in 27,589 deals in the previous session, implying a slump in the number of deals by 29.78 per cent, and a surge in the trading volume and value by 165.72 per cent and 44.71 per cent apiece.

Abbey Mortgage Bank was the most active equity for the day after it sold 1.1 billion units worth N7.1 billion, Sterling Holdings traded 127.1 million units valued at N895.9 million, Custodian Investment exchanged 115.0 million units for N4.5 billion, First Holdco transacted 40.9 million units valued at N2.2 billion, and Access Holdings traded 38.2 million units worth N783.3 million.

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