Economy
Nigeria Records 17% Debt Growth to N26.2trn as at September 2019 – DMO
By Adedapo Adesanya
Nigeria’s total debt grew by almost 17 percent in one year as at September 2019 to stand at N26.2 trillion, the Debt Management Office (DMO) has disclosed.
This disclosure was made in a press release where it was revealed by the Director-General of the DMO, Ms Patience Oniha, in Abuja on Friday during the presentation of public debt data as at September 2019.
“The comparative figure for September 2018 was N25.701 trillion which implies that in the 12 months period to September 2019 the Total Public Debt grew by 16.88 percent,” she said.
The breakdown showed that Total External Debt, across the Federal, States, and Federal Capital Territory (FCT) was N8.3 trillion (13.5 percent); while the Total Domestic Debt was 68.5 percent (Federal Government accruing N13.9 trillion – 53.0 percent with States and FCT amassing N4.0 trillion – 15.4 percent)
The DMO chief said a breakdown of the the total public debt as at September 2019 which includes Promissory Notes stood at N812.650 billion and has been issued to settle the FGN’s arrears to Oil Marketing Companies and State Governments under the Promissory Programme approved by the Federal Executive Council (FEC) and the National Assembly.
Speaking on the country borrowing which saw the country out of recession, Ms Oniha said: “Borrowing came in to fund the budget which included capital projects so when you finance capital projects, you create an entire economy around that in terms of employment, in terms of materials that you buy, in terms of what happens in the environment so there are vendors selling all sort of things so that is the description.”
“We are talking about the multiplier effect of borrowing to finance capital infrastructure and what we generate,” she said.
Ms Oniha also spoke about government issuing promissory notes to its creditors, stating that “these are arrears so it’s not that they did a contract for us now and then we decided to issue a promissory note. These are arrears from several years prior to 2017.”
“It is voluntary on the part of the creditor you don’t have to take a promissory note. You can wait when government has money in its budget to pay you.
“There are provisions in the budget just that they are not large so you can’t be sure when you will get it but you can wait there is no compulsion around it,” she added.
Speaking on new borrowings, she stated that: “the level of New Borrowings in the Appropriation Acts declined consistently since Nigeria exited the recession in the year 2017.
“The increase in the New Borrowings in the Appropriations Acts between 2015 and 2017 was due to the need to stimulate growth and create jobs in the economy as contained in the Economic Recovery Growth Plan (ERGP).”
According to her, “whereas the 2019 Appropriation Act provided for a total New Borrowing of N1.605 trillion split equally between Domestic and External, only the domestic component of N802.82 Billion was raised due to the late passage of the 2019 Appropriation Act and the expectation that the implementation of the 2020 Budget would commence on January 1, 2020.”
The Ratio of Domestic Debt to External Debt at 69:31 as at September 2019 she said was an improvement over the Ratio of 71:29 as at September 2018 “compared to the target of 60:40 in the Medium-Term Debt Management Strategy.”
The Ratio of Long Term to Short Term Debt in the Domestic Debt as at September 2019 was 80:20, which shows that the target of 75:25 had been outperformed by September 2019. Furthermore, it was an improvement over the Ratio of 73:23 recorded in September 2018.
Oniha stated that “total Debt as a percentage of GDP was 18.47 percent as at September 2019 was well within the limit of 25 percent and fares better in comparison with the Debt/GDP ratios of countries such as the United States of America, United Kingdom and Canada with ratios of 105 percent, 85 percent and 90 percent respectively for the same period.”
However, because they generate adequate revenues, their Debt Service/Revenue Ratios for the same period were much lower at 12.5 per cent, 7.5 per cent and 7.5 percent respectively when compared to Nigeria’s 51 per cent in 2017.
The low revenue base of Nigeria relative to its GDP is clearly reflected in the high Debt Service to Revenue Ratio and this is very important for the country to generate more revenue.
“The efforts towards increasing and diversifying revenue such as the passage of the Finance Act and Strategic Revenue Growth Initiative of the Federal Ministry of Finance, Budget and National Planning should thus be supported.” She recommended.
The DMO also unveiled its plans for the year 2020, based on the New Borrowings in the 2020 Appropriation Acts, which comprises of N850 billon and N744.99 billion for External and Domestic Borrowings respectively.
The New Domestic Borrowings will be raised through FGN Bonds, Sukuk, FGN savings Bonds and possibly Green Bonds. For External Borrowings the strategy is to first seek out concessionary and semi concessionary loans due to the lower interest rate and longer tenors. The Debt office added that any shortfall thereafter may be raised from commercial sources.
By Adedapo Adesanya
Energy stocks influenced the 4.76 per cent loss recorded by the NASD Over-the-Counter (OTC) Securities Exchange on Friday, December 5.
The culprits were the duo of 11 Plc and Nipco Plc,with the former shedding N32.17 to end at N291.83 per share compared with the previous day’s N324.00 per share, and the latter down by N21.00 to sell at N195.00 per unit versus the previous session’s N216.00 per unit.
Consequently, the NASD Unlisted Security Index (NSI) slumped by 170.16 points to 3,401.37 points from 3,571.53 points and the market capitalisation lost N101.81 billion to close at N2.035 billion from the N2.136 trillion quoted in the preceding session.
The OTC securities exchange suffered the decline yesterday despite the share prices of three companies closing green.
Central Securities Clearing System (CSCS) Plc was up by N1.80 to close at N39.80 per share compared with Thursday’s price of N38.00 per share, Air Liquide Plc appreciated by N1.09 to N11.99 per unit from N10.90 per unit, and FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc grew by 78 Kobo to N56.57 per share from N55.79 per share.
During the session, the volume of transactions rose by 6,885.3 per cent to 18.2 million units from 4.3 million units, the value of transactions ballooned by 10,301.7 per cent to N389.7 million from N347.2 million, but the number of deals declined by 29.7 per cent to 26 deals from 37 deals.
Infrastructure Credit Guarantee Company (InfraCredit) Plc ended the day as the most traded stock by value on a year-to-date basis with 5.8 billion units worth N16.4 billion, followed by Okitipupa Plc with 170.4 million units valued at N8.0 billion, and Air Liquide Plc with 507.5 million units worth N4.2 billion.
InfraCredit Plc also finished the day as the most traded stock by volume on a year-to-date basis with 5.8 billion units transacted for N16.4 billion, followed by Industrial and General Insurance (IGI) Plc with 1.2 billion units sold for N420.2 million, and Impresit Bakolori Plc with 536.9 million units worth N524.9 million.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Naira depreciated further against the US Dollar in the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEX) on Friday, December 5, as FX demand pressure mounts.
The Nigerian currency lost N2.60 or 0.18 per cent against the greenback to close at N1,450.43/$1 compared with the previous day’s N1,447.83/$1.
Equally, the domestic currency declined against the Pound Sterling in the official forex market during the session by N4.48 to trade at N1,935.45/£1, in contrast to Thursday’s closing price of N1,930.97/£1 and shrank against the Euro by 43 Kobo to end at N1,689.17/€1 versus the preceding session’s rate of N1,688.74/€1.
Similarly, the local currency performed badly against the US Dollar at the GTBank FX counter by N2 to close at N1,455/$1 versus Thursday’s N1,453/$1 but traded flat at the parallel market at N14.65/$1.
As the country gets into the festive period, pressure mounted on the local currency reflecting higher foreign payments and lower FX inflows.
However, there are expectations that the Nigerian currency will be stable, supported by interventions by to the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) in the face of steady dollar Demand and inflows from Detty December festivities that will give the Naira a boost after it depreciated mildly last month.
Traders cited by Reuters expect that the Naira will trade within a band of N1,443-N1,450/$1 next week, buoyed by improved FX interventions by the apex bank.
As for the crypto market, it was down yesterday due to profit-taking associated with year-end trading. However, the December 1-Year Consumer Inflation Expectation by the University of Michigan fell to 4.1 per cent from 4.5 per cent previously and 4.5 per cent expected. The 5-Year Consumer Inflation Expectation fell to 3.2 per cent from 3.4 per cent previously and 3.4 per cent expected.
With the dearth of official economic data of late, these private surveys have taken on a new level of significance and the market banks of them to make decisions.
Cardano (ADA) depreciated by 5.7 per cent to $0.4142, Dogecoin (DOGE) slid by 5.1 per cent to $0.1394, Ethereum (ETH) dropped by 3.9 per cent to $3,039.75, Solana (SOL) declined by 3.8 per cent to $133.24, and Litecoin (LTC) fell by 3.7 per cent to $80.59.
Further, Bitcoin (BTC) went down by 2.6 per cent to sell at $89,683.72, Binance Coin (BNB) slumped by 2.2 per cent to $883.59, and Ripple (XRP) shrank by 2.1 per cent to $2.04, while the US Dollar Tether (USDT) and the US Dollar Coin (USDC) remained unchanged at $1.00 each.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The oil market was up on Friday on increasing expectations the US Federal Reserve will cut interest rates next week, which could boost economic growth and energy demand.
Brent futures rose by 49 cents or 0.8 per cent to $63.75 per barrel and the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures expanded by 41 cents or 0.7 per cent to $60.08 per barrel.
Investors digested a US inflation report and recalibrated expectations for the Federal Reserve to reduce rates at its December 9-10 meeting.
US consumer spending increased moderately in September after three straight months of solid gains, suggesting a loss of momentum in the economy at the end of the third quarter as a lackluster labor market and the rising cost of living curbed demand.
Traders have been pricing in an 87 per cent chance that the US central bank will lower borrowing costs by 25 basis points next week, according to CME Group’s FedWatch Tool.
Investors also focused on news from Russia and Venezuela to determine whether oil supplies from the two sanctioned members of the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies (OPEC+) will increase or decrease in the future.
The failure of US talks in Moscow to achieve any significant breakthrough over the war in Ukraine has helped to boost oil prices so far this week.
A loss of Venezuelan oil production in case of a US military intervention will materially impact global benchmark prices as the market will have to replace Venezuela’s heavy crude.
Venezuela is estimated to pump about 1.1 million barrels per day of crude oil at present, so if the US-Venezuela tension escalation into an invasion in the South American country, this volume of crude would be at risk.
Reuters reported that the Group of Seven countries and the European Union are in talks to replace a price cap on Russian oil exports with a full maritime services ban in a bid to reduce the oil revenue that helps finance Russia’s war in Ukraine.
Any deal that could lift sanctions on Russia, the world’s second-biggest crude producer after the US, could increase the amount of oil available to global markets, weakening prices.
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