Economy
Rewane Explains Implications of CBN Naira 4 Dollar Scheme
By Adedapo Adesanya
Last week, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) shocked Nigerians when it launched a new initiative tagged Naira 4 Dollar Scheme.
The scheme was part of efforts to incentivize senders and recipients of international money transfer. Under the campaign, all recipients of diaspora remittances through licensed International Money Transfer Operators (IMTOs) will be paid N5 for every $1 received as remittance inflows.
This has sent many Nigerians wondering what the new policy meant for the Nigerian currency, which has faced headwinds in the last few months.
Speaking on the likely implications of the currency promo, a renowned economist and the Chief Executive Officer of Financial Derivatives Company, Mr Bismarck Rewane, during a chat with Business Morning on Channels TV on Monday, explained that the initiative from the CBN was a promo designed to increase the country’s awareness and the inflows of Nigeria’s diaspora into the country’s financial system.
He, however, noted that it was rare for the government to use such promotional schemes to promote inflows into the country.
“What is challenging here is that it is very unusual for policies to be tied around promos or gimmicks. Usually, promos and gimmicks are used by manufacturers to launch or push products, or airlines when they have low sales. So, they tie this kind of promo to buy one get one free or to revamp stagnant sales. So, it’s very unusual and peculiar for governments to engage in gimmicks or promos,” he noted.
He further said that the apex bank tailored the actions towards reducing the cost of remittances from the current cutthroat rates charged by the IMTOs.
The Governor of the central bank, Mr Godwin Emefiele, had recently explained that the models had been applied in Pakistan and Bangladesh. He said both South Asian countries had introduced reimbursement schemes to support inflows.
In the CBN chief’s words, “In Pakistan, the scheme, which is known as free send, has enabled record amount of inflows of over $2 billion a month even during the COVID-19 pandemic.
“Bangladesh introduced its own scheme in June 2019, which is a two per cent rebate on remittance inflows. Following this action, they have also seen a 20 per cent boost in remittance inflows.”
Breaking it down further, Mr Rewane noted that the current diaspora inflows to Nigeria are estimated between $5 million and $7 million per day and that the central bank aims to increase to $30 million per day.
“In other words, 30 times 20 working days, you will get maybe $600 million. Well, that is not the point. The point is that it is an effective depreciation of 1 per cent of the currency because ever since this year, the Investors and Exporters’ (I&E) window rate had gone from N390 to N411. So, if you add N5, it is another 1 per cent.
“Nominally, the exchange rate is unchanged, but in reality, it is a depreciation of 1 per cent de facto.”
He noted that there a lot of risks associated with the policy because some people will round trip the policy using arbitrage. Arbitrage is the simultaneous purchase and sale of the same asset in different markets in order to profit from tiny differences in the asset’s listed price.
“So, people will try to use arbitrage on the system. But the fact is that Nigeria is number six in the world in terms of diaspora and workers remittances. It is estimated at about $20 to $25 billion [annually].
“The current pandemic and unemployment rates in the US, Canada, the European Union and the United Kingdom are also going to affect the ability of Nigeria to remit money in.
“These two trends have actually dropped sharply because of vaccination certificates and all sorts of the pandemic effect. So, basically, in the end, I think it’s a gimmick. It is a promo, the central bank will fully understand in the end that there’s no other way of managing an exchange rate than converging them, having one rate so that people don’t stop exploiting it.
“In any case, you collect cash, and you take it to the parallel market or autonomous sources to sell the Naira, and then come back and you get the N5. What could happen is that you could turn $1,000 back again to your brother, who will bring it back.
“So, what could happen is that there could be what I call playing with neurons, the same money turning around the velocity of separation increasing, whilst the quantity supplied into the market will not increase.
“So, but again, heavy innovation leads to some kind of creativity and will help. But in the end, let me put it this way, the price mechanism, the exchange rate has to be market-determined.
“Policymakers will intervene, to preserve to ensure that we don’t suffer from shocks, but it’s a work in progress, and then we’ll wait and see what happens.”
The promo is expected to run from March 8 through the next two month till May 8.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The price of surged by 3 per cent to a five-month high on Thursday on rising concerns that global supplies could be disrupted if the US attacks Iran, one of biggest crude producers in the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).
Specifically, the Brent futures rose by $2.31 or 3.4 per cent to $70.71 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures gained $2.21 or 3.5 per cent to settle at $65.42 per barrel.
US President Donald Trump is weighing options against Iran that include targeted strikes on security forces and leaders to inspire protesters. It was reported that the American President wanted to create conditions for “regime change” after a crackdown crushed a nationwide protest movement earlier this month, killing thousands of people.
There is a possibility that delay is coming as Israel and Arab officials said air power alone would not topple Iran’s clerical rulers.
Earlier this week, he warned Iran that a “massive armada” of US Navy ships is headed to the Persian Gulf.
Reuters reported that in Iran, plainclothes security forces have rounded up thousands of people in a campaign of mass arrests and intimidation to deter further protests.
Iran, for its part, said that its army is ready to “immediately and powerfully” respond to any possible attack by the US.
Oil stakeholders will be weighing the consequences that a war could lead to. Market analysts say Iran may close the Strait of Hormuz shutting out around 20 million barrels per day of oil that navigates it. Iran was the third-biggest crude producer in OPEC behind Saudi Arabia and Iraq in 2025.
European Union foreign ministers adopted new sanctions on Iran on Thursday targeting individuals and entities involved in a violent crackdown on protesters. Separately, the EU designated Iran’s Revolutionary Guard as a terrorist organisation.
Russia on Thursday reiterated its invitation for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy to come to Moscow for peace talks as US-led efforts to reach a deal to end the nearly four-year war in Ukraine intensify.
Any peace deal that would allow Russia to export more oil should increase global supplies and decrease energy prices. Russia is the third-biggest crude producer in the world after the US and Saudi Arabia.
In the US, crude production continued to recover on Thursday after a winter storm ravaged production and losses peaked at 2 million barrels per day over the weekend.
The Dollar fell to its lowest since February 2022 against a basket of other currencies on uncertainty over US economic policies. A weaker greenback can boost oil prices by making dollar-priced oil less expensive for many global buyers.
By Adedapo Adesanya
US sanctioned Russian oil giant Lukoil, will sell its foreign assets, including those in Nigeria and five other countries, to the US investment firm, The Carlyle Group.
According to an announcement on Thursday, Lukoil reached an agreement with the US investment firm on the sale of Lukoil International GmbH, the holding company that owns the group’s non-Russian international assets.
These foreign assets include shares in oil fields and refineries across the globe, including in Iraq, Azerbaijan, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Nigeria, and Mexico.
The sale follows the US sanctions on Lukoil and Rosneft, “as a result of Russia’s lack of serious commitment to a peace process to end the war in Ukraine.”
The Donald Trump administration in October 2025 had carried out the decision to put pressure on Russia’s state finances, adding the country’s two largest oil producers, Lukoil and Rosneft, to its blacklist of sanctioned entities. The US had initially given the oil firm one month to sell the holdings before gradually extending it as negotiations dragged on.
Lukoil had announced that same month that it would sell all of its international assets, initiating a formal process to receive bids from potential buyers.
After months of negotiations with potential buyers and one preliminary agreement with Gunvor blocked by the US Treasury, which described the trading group as “the Kremlin’s puppet”, it has now signed an agreement to sell Lukoil International GmbH to Carlyle.
Companies working with the sanctioned firms risk secondary sanctions that would deny them access to US banks, traders, transporters, and insurers.
The agreement is not exclusive and is subject to conditions such as the procurement of necessary regulatory approvals, including permission from the US Department of the Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) for the transaction with Carlyle.
Carlyle said that the agreement “has been structured to be fully compliant” with US Treasury policies and that it was “conditional upon Carlyle’s due diligence and regulatory approvals”.
Prior to the Carlyle news, other US oil and gas supermajors Chevron and ExxonMobil, and International Holding Company (IHC) of Abu Dhabi expressed interest to the US Treasury to potentially acquire Lukoil’s international assets.
The sale would further dent Russian economy which has been struggling because of its war in Ukraine and Western sanctions have increased inflation and slowed economic growth. In 2025, the country’s oil and gas revenues, which make up about a quarter of government income and help fund the war, fell to their lowest level in five years.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The chief executive of the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC), Mrs Oritsemeyiwa Eyesan, has assured investors of a transparent, merit-based and competitive process for Nigeria’s 2025 oil and gas licensing round.
Mrs Eyesan, gave the assurance on Wednesday while speaking at a Pre-Bid Webinar organised by the commission, noting that only applicants with strong technical, financial credentials, professionalism and credible plans would proceed to the critical stage of the bidding process.
The NUPRC in December 1, 2025 inaugurated Nigeria’s 2025 Licensing Bid Round, offering 50 oil and gas blocks across frontier, onshore, shallow water, and deepwater terrains for potential investors.
The basins included Niger Delta basin, with 35 blocks, Benin (Frontier) with three blocks, Anambra (Frontier), with four blocks, Benue (Frontier), with four blocks and Chad (Frontier) with four blocks on offer.
Mrs Eyesan explained that the licensing process would follow five stages: Registration and pre-qualification, data acquisition, technical bid submission, evaluation, and a commercial bid conference, with only bidders that meet strong technical and financial criteria progressing.
The NUPRC executive said the 2025 Licensing Round represented a deliberate effort by Nigeria to reposition its upstream petroleum sector for long-term investment, transparency, and value creation, amid increasing global competition for capital.
She said that energy security and supply resilience had become key global economic and geopolitical priorities, while investment capital was increasingly selective and disciplined.
“Our national priority is clear: to attract capital, grow reserves, and improve production in a responsible and sustainable manner.
“A structured and transparent licensing round is essential to achieving these objectives.
“The NUPRC is legally mandated to conduct licensing rounds in a periodic, open, transparent, and fully competitive manner and the entire 2025 process will be governed strictly by published rules,” she said.
The official further revealed that, with the approval of President Bola Tinubu, signature bonuses for the 2025 round have been set within a range designed to lower entry barriers and prioritise technical capability, credible work programmes, financial strength, and speed to production.
She emphasised that the bid process will fully comply with the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) and remain open to public and institutional scrutiny through the Nigeria Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (NEITI) and other oversight agencies.
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