By Adedapo Adesanya
Last week, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) shocked Nigerians when it launched a new initiative tagged Naira 4 Dollar Scheme.
The scheme was part of efforts to incentivize senders and recipients of international money transfer. Under the campaign, all recipients of diaspora remittances through licensed International Money Transfer Operators (IMTOs) will be paid N5 for every $1 received as remittance inflows.
This has sent many Nigerians wondering what the new policy meant for the Nigerian currency, which has faced headwinds in the last few months.
Speaking on the likely implications of the currency promo, a renowned economist and the Chief Executive Officer of Financial Derivatives Company, Mr Bismarck Rewane, during a chat with Business Morning on Channels TV on Monday, explained that the initiative from the CBN was a promo designed to increase the country’s awareness and the inflows of Nigeria’s diaspora into the country’s financial system.
He, however, noted that it was rare for the government to use such promotional schemes to promote inflows into the country.
“What is challenging here is that it is very unusual for policies to be tied around promos or gimmicks. Usually, promos and gimmicks are used by manufacturers to launch or push products, or airlines when they have low sales. So, they tie this kind of promo to buy one get one free or to revamp stagnant sales. So, it’s very unusual and peculiar for governments to engage in gimmicks or promos,” he noted.
He further said that the apex bank tailored the actions towards reducing the cost of remittances from the current cutthroat rates charged by the IMTOs.
The Governor of the central bank, Mr Godwin Emefiele, had recently explained that the models had been applied in Pakistan and Bangladesh. He said both South Asian countries had introduced reimbursement schemes to support inflows.
In the CBN chief’s words, “In Pakistan, the scheme, which is known as free send, has enabled record amount of inflows of over $2 billion a month even during the COVID-19 pandemic.
“Bangladesh introduced its own scheme in June 2019, which is a two per cent rebate on remittance inflows. Following this action, they have also seen a 20 per cent boost in remittance inflows.”
Breaking it down further, Mr Rewane noted that the current diaspora inflows to Nigeria are estimated between $5 million and $7 million per day and that the central bank aims to increase to $30 million per day.
“In other words, 30 times 20 working days, you will get maybe $600 million. Well, that is not the point. The point is that it is an effective depreciation of 1 per cent of the currency because ever since this year, the Investors and Exporters’ (I&E) window rate had gone from N390 to N411. So, if you add N5, it is another 1 per cent.
“Nominally, the exchange rate is unchanged, but in reality, it is a depreciation of 1 per cent de facto.”
He noted that there a lot of risks associated with the policy because some people will round trip the policy using arbitrage. Arbitrage is the simultaneous purchase and sale of the same asset in different markets in order to profit from tiny differences in the asset’s listed price.
“So, people will try to use arbitrage on the system. But the fact is that Nigeria is number six in the world in terms of diaspora and workers remittances. It is estimated at about $20 to $25 billion [annually].
“The current pandemic and unemployment rates in the US, Canada, the European Union and the United Kingdom are also going to affect the ability of Nigeria to remit money in.
“These two trends have actually dropped sharply because of vaccination certificates and all sorts of the pandemic effect. So, basically, in the end, I think it’s a gimmick. It is a promo, the central bank will fully understand in the end that there’s no other way of managing an exchange rate than converging them, having one rate so that people don’t stop exploiting it.
“In any case, you collect cash, and you take it to the parallel market or autonomous sources to sell the Naira, and then come back and you get the N5. What could happen is that you could turn $1,000 back again to your brother, who will bring it back.
“So, what could happen is that there could be what I call playing with neurons, the same money turning around the velocity of separation increasing, whilst the quantity supplied into the market will not increase.
“So, but again, heavy innovation leads to some kind of creativity and will help. But in the end, let me put it this way, the price mechanism, the exchange rate has to be market-determined.
“Policymakers will intervene, to preserve to ensure that we don’t suffer from shocks, but it’s a work in progress, and then we’ll wait and see what happens.”
The promo is expected to run from March 8 through the next two month till May 8.
Nigeria Rakes N174.9bn from 2020 Marginal Field Bid Round
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Nigerian Upstream Regulatory Petroleum Commission (NURPC) has disclosed that the 2020 marginal field bid round, which was concluded last year, has so far yielded about N174.944 billion, with owners of 30 fields having partially paid and two fields stalled by court cases.
The new commission further stated that 20 companies that won the bids had partially paid up, among those who won the 57 oilfields.
In May 2021, the Department of Petroleum Resources (DPR), which transmuted into NURPC with the enactment of the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA), concluded the 2020 marginal oilfield bid round, the first successful exercise since 2003, when 24 assets were put on offer.
The process which culminated in the presentation of letters to the bid winners in Abuja by the industry regulator, started in June 2020, with 57 marginal fields spanning land, swamp and offshore put up for lease by the federal government.
Marginal fields are smaller oil blocks typically developed by indigenous companies and have remained unproduced for a period of over 10 years.
Some of the companies which emerged winners at the time included: Matrix Energy, AA Rano, Andova Plc, Duport Midstream, Genesis Technical, Twin Summit, Bono Energy, Deep Offshore Integrated, Oodua Oil, MRS and Petrogas.
A few others that succeeded in crossing the hurdle and had fully satisfied all conditions were: North Oils and Gas, Pierport, Metropole, Pioneer Global, Shepherd Hill, Akata, NIPCO, Aida, YY Connect, Accord Oil, Pathway Oil, Tempo Oil, Virgin Forest among others.
The process was hailed as a big win for local oil and gas companies in the country, which had a good outing during the ceremony as 100 per cent of the beneficiaries of the exercise were indigenous entities.
Nigeria last conducted marginal field bid rounds in 2003, with 16 of the fields contributing just two per cent to the national oil and gas reserves.
The commission also stated that its target revenue for 2022 remained N3.38 trillion, substantially exceeding its 2021 revenue projection of N3 trillion and that of 2020 which was pegged at N1.746 trillion.
In a presentation it made to the Senate Committee on Petroleum, Upstream, led by Mr Bassey Akpan, during an oversight meeting at its headquarters in Abuja, the agency led by Mr Gbenga Komolafe, explained that it hit N1.99 trillion revenue in 2020, surpassing its forecast of N1.746 trillion by about 13.98 per cent.
But in 2021, with a revenue target of N3.066 trillion, the commission pointed out that it generated N2.711 trillion, achieving 88.45 per cent of its revenue forecast which is usually paid into the federal government coffers.
It stated that in spite of the reduced fiscal provision in the PIA, the organisation was set to achieve its desired revenue target for 2022.
Furthermore, the NURPC lamented that with the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) production quota of 1.683 million bpd in January and 1.701 million barrels per day in February, it is only able to pump 1.396 million barrels per day currently, leading to a loss of at least 115,926 million barrels per day on a daily basis, put at roughly $300 million monthly.
“We are losing about 115, 926 barrels per day, so that literally translates to roughly about $300 million and that’s a huge loss to a nation that actually requires these funds,” he stated.
Mr Komolafe attributed the underperformance to mostly oil theft, sabotage, vandalism as well as technical issues, including ruptures associated with the assets.
“But the larger percentage is due to crude oil theft and as a commission we know the impact of this and recognising our regulatory role, we have been able to reach out to other operators as to what we can do about this.
“We are trying to put in place an industry-wide initiative to ameliorate the situation and we are expecting to go live in terms of implementation in collaboration with the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) and the other stakeholders,” he added.
However, he stated that despite the encumbrances, it would continue to promote an enabling environment for investment in the upstream petroleum sector, establish, monitor and regulate as well as enforce environmental measures and optimise government’s take from the country’s hydrocarbon resources.
In addition, the commission vowed to ensure compliance with the terms and conditions of leases and licences granted, enforce all laws relating to upstream operations as well as maintain a petroleum industry data bank.
Mr Komolafe, responding to issues raised by the senators on the environmental degradation in the Niger Delta, stated that there are provisions in the PIA which provide for remediation.
He stated that the commission recognises that the job was enormous and had set up an internal committee to liaise with the senate steering committee to work on regulations for the industry.
The agency’s chief executive stated that if fully implemented, the PIA would take care of issues connected with the environment, adding that while some pollutions are attributable to normal oil operations, others could be credited to sabotage by other parties.
AfDB to Establish Onion Commodity Exchange in Sokoto
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Sokoto State Governor, Mr Aminu Waziri Tambuwal, has revealed that the African Development Bank (AfDB) will soon facilitate the establishment of an Onion Commodity Exchange in the state.
According to the Governor, this was part of the outcomes of a high-level meeting he and some of his Commissioners had with the management team of the bank last week in Abidjan, Côte d’Ivoire.
A statement signed by his media aide, Mr Muhammad Bello, said the Governor made this known at the closing of a three-day training for budding entrepreneurs in the state last week, adding that his administration was dedicated to supporting indigenous farmers.
The realisation of the plan will make such an establishment the 15th of its kind in Africa and the fourth in the country after the Abuja Securities and Commodity Exchange, Lagos Commodities and Futures Exchange; and AFEX Commodities Exchange Limited.
In economic parlance, trading in exchanges includes derivatives contracts, such as forwards, futures, options and spot trades- focusing on immediate delivery.
It could also be traded on interest rates, foreign exchange futures, freight contracts instruments and environmental instruments.
According to the statement, Mr Tambuwal revealed that “during our visit to the AfDB, we had engagements with them and agreed that an Onion Commodities Exchange will be established in Sokoto with the help of the bank on the framework and technical support.”
He said the potential for onions trade abounds in the state, thus putting it in the topmost position of states cultivating the commodity in the country.
He cited an example of an individual in Abidjan, who transacts over N2.8 billion onion trade annually from Sokoto-Côte d’Ivoire, elaborating that the result of a survey he commissioned has revealed that from onion trade alone, the state engages in an annual transaction of between N250 and N300 billion.
Over the past few months, several stakeholders have been looking at how to push the onion species produced in the country to one of the best in the world.
Experts note that because of its strong pungency, it is exported to many countries including France, Japan, India, Niger Republic, Ghana and others.
GSK Consumer Healthcare Business Not Worth Than £50bn—Unilever
By Dipo Olowookere
Unilever Plc has said it will not increase its £50 billion bid for the acquisition of GSK Consumer Healthcare business owned by GlaxoSmithKline, which was earlier rejected by the company.
In a statement issued last Saturday, GSK confirmed that it “received three unsolicited, conditional and non-binding proposals from Unilever” for the acquisition of its consumer healthcare arm, which is jointly owned by GSK and Pfizer, with GSK holding a majority controlling interest of 68 per cent and Pfizer 32 per cent.
According to GSK, the acquisition value of £50 billion comprising £41.7 billion in cash and £8.3 billion in Unilever shares was below the true value of the business.
The offer was rejected, according to the company, because the consumer healthcare business was “fundamentally undervalued” as the business has great “future prospects”, which was not factored into the proposals.
“The board of GSK is strongly focused on maximising value for GSK shareholders and has carefully evaluated each Unilever proposal.
“In doing so, the board and its advisers assessed the proposals relative to the financial planning assessments completed to support the proposed demerger of the business in mid-2022, including the sales growth outlook,” a part of the statement noted.
But reacting to the rejection in a statement on Wednesday, Unilever said it does not feel that the value of the GSK consumer business is worth more than its £50 billion valuations and because of that, it would not increase it.
“We note the recently shared financial assumptions from the current owners of GSK Consumer Healthcare and have determined that it does not change our view on fundamental value,” the statement said.
Unilever said, “Accordingly, we will not increase our offer above £50 billion,” noting that it will continue to maintain “strict financial discipline to ensure that acquisitions create value for our shareholders.”
“Unilever also reiterates its commitment to continuing to improve the performance of its existing portfolio through its ongoing focus on operational excellence, its upcoming reorganisation and by rotating the portfolio to higher growth categories,” it added.
Unilever and GSK both have subsidiaries in Nigeria and are also listed on the local stock exchange.
Business Post reports that on Wednesday, shares of Unilever Nigeria closed flat N13.20, while GSK rose by 0.84 per cent to N6.00 from N5.95.
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