Economy
Rewane Explains Implications of CBN Naira 4 Dollar Scheme
By Adedapo Adesanya
Last week, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) shocked Nigerians when it launched a new initiative tagged Naira 4 Dollar Scheme.
The scheme was part of efforts to incentivize senders and recipients of international money transfer. Under the campaign, all recipients of diaspora remittances through licensed International Money Transfer Operators (IMTOs) will be paid N5 for every $1 received as remittance inflows.
This has sent many Nigerians wondering what the new policy meant for the Nigerian currency, which has faced headwinds in the last few months.
Speaking on the likely implications of the currency promo, a renowned economist and the Chief Executive Officer of Financial Derivatives Company, Mr Bismarck Rewane, during a chat with Business Morning on Channels TV on Monday, explained that the initiative from the CBN was a promo designed to increase the country’s awareness and the inflows of Nigeria’s diaspora into the country’s financial system.
He, however, noted that it was rare for the government to use such promotional schemes to promote inflows into the country.
“What is challenging here is that it is very unusual for policies to be tied around promos or gimmicks. Usually, promos and gimmicks are used by manufacturers to launch or push products, or airlines when they have low sales. So, they tie this kind of promo to buy one get one free or to revamp stagnant sales. So, it’s very unusual and peculiar for governments to engage in gimmicks or promos,” he noted.
He further said that the apex bank tailored the actions towards reducing the cost of remittances from the current cutthroat rates charged by the IMTOs.
The Governor of the central bank, Mr Godwin Emefiele, had recently explained that the models had been applied in Pakistan and Bangladesh. He said both South Asian countries had introduced reimbursement schemes to support inflows.
In the CBN chief’s words, “In Pakistan, the scheme, which is known as free send, has enabled record amount of inflows of over $2 billion a month even during the COVID-19 pandemic.
“Bangladesh introduced its own scheme in June 2019, which is a two per cent rebate on remittance inflows. Following this action, they have also seen a 20 per cent boost in remittance inflows.”
Breaking it down further, Mr Rewane noted that the current diaspora inflows to Nigeria are estimated between $5 million and $7 million per day and that the central bank aims to increase to $30 million per day.
“In other words, 30 times 20 working days, you will get maybe $600 million. Well, that is not the point. The point is that it is an effective depreciation of 1 per cent of the currency because ever since this year, the Investors and Exporters’ (I&E) window rate had gone from N390 to N411. So, if you add N5, it is another 1 per cent.
“Nominally, the exchange rate is unchanged, but in reality, it is a depreciation of 1 per cent de facto.”
He noted that there a lot of risks associated with the policy because some people will round trip the policy using arbitrage. Arbitrage is the simultaneous purchase and sale of the same asset in different markets in order to profit from tiny differences in the asset’s listed price.
“So, people will try to use arbitrage on the system. But the fact is that Nigeria is number six in the world in terms of diaspora and workers remittances. It is estimated at about $20 to $25 billion [annually].
“The current pandemic and unemployment rates in the US, Canada, the European Union and the United Kingdom are also going to affect the ability of Nigeria to remit money in.
“These two trends have actually dropped sharply because of vaccination certificates and all sorts of the pandemic effect. So, basically, in the end, I think it’s a gimmick. It is a promo, the central bank will fully understand in the end that there’s no other way of managing an exchange rate than converging them, having one rate so that people don’t stop exploiting it.
“In any case, you collect cash, and you take it to the parallel market or autonomous sources to sell the Naira, and then come back and you get the N5. What could happen is that you could turn $1,000 back again to your brother, who will bring it back.
“So, what could happen is that there could be what I call playing with neurons, the same money turning around the velocity of separation increasing, whilst the quantity supplied into the market will not increase.
“So, but again, heavy innovation leads to some kind of creativity and will help. But in the end, let me put it this way, the price mechanism, the exchange rate has to be market-determined.
“Policymakers will intervene, to preserve to ensure that we don’t suffer from shocks, but it’s a work in progress, and then we’ll wait and see what happens.”
The promo is expected to run from March 8 through the next two month till May 8.
By Adedapo Adesanya
Brent futures climbed $1.06 or 1.3 per cent to $83.55 a barrel on Friday amid ongoing uncertainty about the negotiations in progress that determine control of and reopening of the key shipping artery of the Strait of Hormuz.
In the same vein, the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures finished at $78.18 a barrel after it chalked up 89 cents or 1.15 per cent.
Iran is reviewing a bill to ban American and Israeli vessels from the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly a fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas normally passed before the war began at the end of February.
Market analysts noted that while this week’s signals on a potential deal have sent a roller-coaster ride in market sentiment, the market remains in the dark as to what needs to happen for the agreement to be clinched.
Part of the question being asked is whether the Iran-Oman agreement would allow a US-flagged vessel to transit the Strait of Hormuz or allow a vessel headed for an American port to go through.
Shipping through Hormuz remains heavily constrained as Middle East oil production is still well below pre-war levels while attacks on commercial vessels have continued even as negotiators discuss possible arrangements for the waterway.
Some also said that this week’s developments have signalled that hostilities between Iran and the US are not yet over. This is because the proposed deal is not easily workable because of sanctions and restrictive insurance clauses on any payments by the US government.
Iran is seeking fees of between 5 per cent and 7 per cent of the price of cargoes from ships using the strait, while Oman is discussing fees of about 3 per cent, while the Donald Trump administration wants no fees at all.
Citi has raised its third-quarter Brent crude forecast to $80 per barrel from $75 as the war drags on and repeated attempts at a deal fail to restore normal oil flows through the strait.
The bank still expects the conflict to be resolved, but the five-month war has lasted longer than Citi anticipated and kept more geopolitical risk in crude prices. Citi left its fourth-quarter Brent forecast unchanged at $70 per barrel and still sees the benchmark averaging $65 in 2027.
By Adedapo Adesanya
Nigerian businessman and chief executive of Dangote Industries Limited, Mr Aliko Dangote, has unveiled plans for a new phase of investments and acquisitions as the conglomerate pushes towards its target of generating $100 billion in annual revenue by 2030.
Mr Dangote disclosed this while receiving a delegation of senior executives from global investment banking and financial services firm Goldman Sachs, led by co-chief executive of Goldman Sachs International and Global Co-Head of Investment Banking, Mr Anthony Gutman, during a tour of the Dangote Petroleum Refinery & Petrochemicals and Dangote Fertiliser Limited complex in Lagos.
Speaking after the visit, Mr Dangote said the refinery and associated industrial facilities underscore the transformative impact of long-term investment in Africa, stressing that the group’s ambitions extend beyond its current strategic plan.
“No matter how we try to explain what we have built, you cannot fully appreciate it until you see it. But this is only the beginning. We need to look beyond 2030.
“The next phase of our journey will include new investments and acquisitions as we continue to scale the business,” he said.
He added that detailed internal modelling had reinforced management’s confidence that the Group’s target of generating $100 billion in annual revenue by 2030 was achievable.
According to him, the projections were based on conservative assumptions and had strengthened the company’s conviction to pursue an even more ambitious long-term growth strategy.
Mr Dangote also revealed that the strong participation of employees in the refinery’s recent private placement reflected growing internal confidence in the company’s long-term strategy and future prospects.
The Goldman Sachs delegation, after an extensive tour of the 700,000 barrels-per-day refinery, described the project as an extraordinary achievement.
“It is extraordinary what Mr Dangote and the whole organisation have achieved. The ambition, the scale of the project, the quality of the project and the culture of the people is very impressive,” the executives said.
According to a statement issued by Dangote Group on Friday, the delegation was led by Mr Anthony Gutman and included Mr Adib N. Zouein, Co-Head of EMEA Emerging Markets Regional Sales and Head of the Middle East and North Africa region for Global Banking & Markets Public; Mr Ryad Yousuf, Global Head of FICC Sales Strats and Structuring; and Mr Jimi Adesanya, Head of Sub-Saharan Africa Sales (excluding South Africa).
The visitors were received by Dangote; Group Vice President, Oil & Gas, Mr Devakumar Edwin; Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer of Dangote Petroleum Refinery & Petrochemicals, Mr David Bird; Group Executive Director, Oil & Gas, Ms Fatima Aliko Dangote; Chief of Staff to the President/CEO, Ibrahim Dikko; Group Chief Branding and Communication Officer, Mr Anthony Chiejina; Group Chief Economist, Mr Hassan Mahmud; Group Chief Strategy Officer, Mr Aliyu Suleiman; and Head of Administration, Dangote Petroleum Refinery & Petrochemicals, Mr Musa Bala, among other senior executives.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Senate Public Accounts Committee has heard that Nigeria spent N1.16 trillion on fuel subsidy in 2021, while N1.20 trillion was deducted from federation crude oil sales proceeds during the same period.
The disclosure came from the Chairman of the Revenue Mobilisation Allocation and Fiscal Commission (RMAFC), Mr Mohammed Bello Shehu, during the committee’s ongoing investigation into the 2021 to 2023 Nigeria Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (NEITI) audit reports on the oil and gas sector.
According to the commission, crude and petroleum product losses cost N16.2 billion, pipeline repairs accounted for N22.05 billion, while strategic stock holding attracted N6.75 billion.
The revelations come against the backdrop of Nigeria’s long-running fuel subsidy regime, which successive governments maintained to keep the pump price of petrol artificially low despite mounting fiscal pressures.
Over the years, subsidy payments consumed trillions of Naira, significantly reducing revenues available to the three tiers of government and contributing to widening budget deficits.
The issue reached a turning point in May 2023 when President Bola Tinubu announced the removal of fuel subsidy during his inauguration speech, declaring that “fuel subsidy is gone.” The decision followed years of concerns over the rising cost of the programme, allegations of fraud, and repeated recommendations by fiscal authorities and international financial institutions that the subsidy had become unsustainable.
The removal triggered a sharp increase in the pump price of Premium Motor Spirit (petrol), leading to higher transportation and living costs across the country. In response, the federal government introduced a series of palliative measures, including cash transfers, support for mass transit, and wage-related interventions, while arguing that savings from the subsidy would be redirected to infrastructure, education, healthcare, and other critical sectors of the economy.
The commission also argued that the current method of calculating the 13 per cent derivation fund undermines the constitutional intention of the policy.
Meanwhile, the committee stood down the Niger Delta Development Commission’s presentation until next Wednesday to allow lawmakers review its submission.
The committee also expressed displeasure over the absence of the Auditor-General of the Federation, warning that he must appear before lawmakers next Tuesday or face compulsory appearance through the constitutional powers of the National Assembly.
