Economy
Slow Demand, Oversupply Forecasts Pull Down Oil Market
By Adedapo Adesanya
The forecasts by the International Energy Agency (IEA) that the Omicron variant will slow the recovery of global oil demand pulled down the oil market on Tuesday by more than one per cent.
The Brent crude declined by 75 cents or 1.02 per cent to settle at $72.95 per barrel, while the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude depreciated by 86 cents or 1.22 per cent to trade at $69.87 per barrel.
The recent spike in COVID cases is set to slow demand recovery in the coming weeks, with jet fuel demand most affected, the IEA said in its latest Oil Market Report for December.
Due to new restrictions on international travel, the IEA revised down slightly—by 100,000 barrels per day —its demand growth forecast for both this year and next.
In 2021, the IEA expects oil demand to rise by 5.4 million barrels per day compared to 2020, and another 3.3 million barrels per day in 2022, reaching the pre-COVID levels of 99.5 million barrels per day.
Despite the downward revision, the IEA doesn’t expect a massive drop in demand of the magnitude the oil market seems to have priced in at the end of November when first reports of the new variant emerged.
“The surge in new COVID-19 cases is expected to temporarily slow, but not upend, the recovery in oil demand that is underway,” the IEA said in its report yesterday.
“New containment measures put in place to halt the spread of the virus are likely to have a more muted impact on the economy versus previous Covid waves, not least because of widespread vaccination campaigns. As a result, we expect demand for road transport fuels and petrochemical feedstocks to continue to post healthy growth,” the agency added.
The IEA also said that global oil production is set to outpace demand as soon as this month, led by growth in the US and Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies (OPEC+) countries.
“Much needed relief for tight markets is on the way, with world oil supply set to overtake demand starting this month,” the IEA noted.
The Paris-based agency said that if (OPEC+) continues to unwind its cuts, the first quarter of 2022 will see a surplus of 1.7 million barrels per day, and the oversupply could grow to 2 million barrels per day in the second quarter of 2022.
“If that were to happen, 2022 could indeed shape up to be more comfortable,” the IEA said.
On Monday, OPEC said in its monthly report that the impact of the Omicron COVID variant on global oil demand would be mild and short-lived, and left its 2021 and 2022 demand growth forecasts unchanged.
Also denting prices was the US Dollar remaining near one-week highs on Tuesday bolstered by the producer prices data.
Analysts noted that as the US Federal Reserve is more like to lift interest rates, this is pushing additional strength into the greenback and is forcing price weakness into the oil.
By Adedapo Adesanya
Workers at Seplat Energy will resume work after a strike action that impacted production was called off by the Petroleum and Natural Gas Senior Staff Association of Nigeria (PENGASSAN) over the weekend, with the company issuing written commitments on pay rises.
Top employees began an indefinite strike last Friday as talks over a collective bargaining agreement and staff welfare issues broke down. The action came at a time when Nigeria is seeking to maximise production amid rising global oil prices.
According to Reuters, in an April 4 letter to the chief executive of Seplat Nigeria, Mr Roger Brown, PENGASSAN said it had directed members at the local energy firm to immediately suspend industrial action after negotiations resumed with the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) Limited. Other less-skilled workers are covered by the Nigeria Labour Congress (NLC) and did not partake in the strike with PENGASSAN.
The union said talks on a 2026 collective bargaining agreement would continue, with the aim of concluding outstanding issues by April 13. However, according to the publication, the union did not disclose more details about its financial demands.
“We can confirm that the union has suspended its notice of industrial action to allow negotiations to conclude on outstanding items within an agreed framework,” Seplat spokesperson, Mr Ogechukwu Udeagha, said, adding that “operations are recommencing at our various locations.”
Seplat Energy’s group production averaged 131,506 barrels of oil equivalent per day in 2025, according to its latest audited results. That is the equivalent of around 7 per cent–9 per cent of Nigeria’s total liquids production.
The company expects output to rise to 155,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day, making any sustained disruption particularly sensitive for Nigeria’s supply outlook. This comes as it seeks to scale production while remaining a major supplier of gas to Nigeria’s domestic power market.
With the company’s output expected to rise, any prolonged disruption would have significantly impacted Nigeria’s oil supply and fiscal outlook.
By Dipo Olowookere
The weekly turnover of the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited shrank by 27.70 per cent or 1.094 billion equities, partly due to the inability of market participants to trade last Friday as a result of the Good Friday public holiday declared by the federal government.
In the week, investors bought and sold 2.856 billion equities worth N113.597 billion in 215,287 deals versus the 3.950 billion equities valued at N201.312 billion transacted in 359,642 deals in the preceding week.
The activity chart was led by the financial services industry with 1.811 billion shares valued at N61.901 billion in 86,818 deals, contributing 63.41 per cent and 54.49 per cent to the total trading volume and value, respectively.
The services sector traded 299.895 million stocks worth N2.966 billion in 13,797 deals, and the ICT segment exchanged 183.233 million equities for N14.654 billion in 25,287 deals.
Wema Bank, Access Holdings, and Secure Electronic Technology accounted for 734.659 million shares worth N14.134 billion in 12,319 deals, contributing 25.72 per cent and 12.44 per cent to the total trading volume and value apiece.
Data from the NGX said 29 stocks gained weight versus 47 stocks of the previous week, as 57 shares lost weight versus 45 shares in the preceding week, while 62 equities closed flat versus 56 equities a week earlier.
Multiverse led the gainers’ chart after it gained 20.66 per cent to trade at N20.15, UPDC REIT appreciated by 15.49 per cent to N8.20, International Energy Insurance chalked up 12.54 per cent to quote at N3.32, Austin Laz grew by 10.47 per cent to N4.43, and Unilever Nigeria rose by 10.00 per cent to N103.40.
Conversely, Secure Electronic Technology topped the losers’ table after it lost 21.54 per cent to close at N1.02, John Holt declined by 18.47 per cent to N15.45, May and Baker depreciated by 16.57 per cent to N35.00, Aluminium Extrusion moderated by 16.27 per cent to N10.55, and Legend Internet slipped by 16.00 per cent to N6.30.
Business Post reports that the All-Share Index (ASI) was up by 0.39 per cent to 201,698,89 points, and the market capitalisation rose by 0.65 per cent to N129.806 trillion.
In the same vein, all other indices finished higher apart from the main board, insurance, MERI Value, consumer goods, industrial goods and growth indices, which went down by 0.29 per cent, 4.25 per cent, 0.36 per cent, 1.74 per cent, 0.24 per cent, and 0.06 per cent, respectively, while the sovereign bond index closed flat.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The NASD Over-the-Counter (OTC) Securities Exchange recorded a 3.8 per cent week-on-week decline in the 14th trading week of 2026, which had only four trading sessions.
This happened because of the public holiday observed on Friday for Easter celebrations in Nigeria and across the globe.
Last week, the market capitalisation of the bourse went down by N95.36 billion to N2.417 trillion from N2.512 trillion in Week 13, while the NASD Unlisted Securities Index (NSI) shrank by 159.39 points to 4,040.30 points from 4,199.69 points in the previous week.
In the week, there were five price losers and eight price losers led by 11 Plc, which crumbled by N94.57 to N256.60 per unit from N351.17 per unit.
MRS Oil Plc lost N39.00 to close at N171.00 per share from N210.00 per share, FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc depreciated by N17 to N93.00 per unit from N110.00 per unit, and Central Securities Clearing System (CSCS) Plc shed N2.10 to close at N78.00 per share versus N80.10 per share.
Further, NASD Plc dropped N4.14 to end at N37.36 per unit versus N41.50 per unit, UBN Property Plc crashed by 22 Kobo to N1.98 per share from N2.20 per share, Food Concepts Plc slid by 13 Kobo to N2.87 per unit from N3.00 per unit, and Capital Bancorp Plc contracted by 10 Kobo to N1.90 per share from N2.00 per share.
On the flip side, IPWA Plc gained 55 Kobo to sell at N6.06 per unit versus N5.51 per unit, Geo-Fluids Plc appreciated by 7 Kobo to N3.25 per share from N3.18 per share, Industrial and General Insurance (IGI) Plc improved by 5 Kobo to 57 Kobo per unit from 52 Kobo per unit, Great Nigeria Insurance (GNI) Plc grew by 2 Kobo to 52 Kobo per share from 50 Kobo per share, and Acorn Petroleum Plc moved up by 1 Kobo to N1.34 per unit from N1.33 per unit.
The volume of transactions witnessed a 5,490.9 per cent surge last week to 3.5 billion units from 62.7 million units, and the value of transactions soared by 437.7 per cent to N9.7 billion from N1.7 billion. These trades were completed in 163 deals and involved 20 stocks.
The most traded stock by value was GNI Plc with N8.4 billion, followed by Okitipupa Plc with N630.5 million, Geo-Fluids Plc with N162.7 million, CSCS Plc with N57.5 million, and Friesland Campina Wamco Nigeria Plc with N37.1 million.
The most trased stock by volume was also GNI Plc with 3.4 billion units, Geo-Fluids Plc traded 50.1 million units, Okitipupa Plc transacted 21.0 million units, UBN Property Plc quoted 2.5 million units, and CSCS Plc sold 0.73 million units.
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