Banking
Stock Analysis: Zenith Bank Sets for Impressive FY-2017 Performance Amid Credit Loss Pressure
Zenith Bank recorded a 44.57 percent growth in interest income in H1-17. On our 12.98 percent estimated assets yield, we believe the run rate will be sustained for the rest of the year, equating to 36.38 percent y/y growth in interest income to N524.46 billion.
The bank’s portfolio of investment securities, treasury bills, and quality loan books will be catalysts of the growth in assets yield. We also forecast NIR to surge by 51.16 percent to N186.60 billion, buoyed by strong trading income, revaluation gains, and marginal write-back of previous provisions.
Overall, we forecast a 39.97 percent growth in gross earnings to N711.06 billion in 2017F.
That said, PBT and PAT growth will be muted, owing to the impact of the elevated cost of refinancing maturing FCY obligations, higher impairment provisioning on transportation (specifically the aviation sector), communication and general commerce exposure, and a surge in total operating expenses (opex).
In a bid to meet maturing FCY obligations during the year, Zenith Bank issued the second tranche of its $1 billion Global Medium-Term Note Programme established in 2014. The programme was completed in May and the bank successfully raised $500 million (at a coupon rate of 7.375 percent, a 113bps premium over the first tranche).
The bank’s balance sheet as at H1-17 ending reveals that FCY borrowings worth $593.80 million (KEXIM $16.44 million, ABSA Bank $151 million, JP Morgan $75.05 million, Standard Bank $273.83 million, First Rand Bank $6.52 million, Citi Global Markets $51.96 million, and BACA $18 million) are due for maturity between May and October 2017.
We believe both the Eurobond and the newly secured borrowings during the year (SMBCE $49.75 million and AFC $181.9 million) came at higher cost relative to the maturing loans (mostly concessional borrowings) having estimated weighted average rate of 5.15 percent.
Accordingly, and given the continued tight domestic interest rate environment, we expect cost of funds to expand 125 bps y/y to 5.40 percent in 2017F – translating to interest expense of N235.88 billion.
However, we expect the stronger expansion in asset yields will offset the growth in funding cost, thus, we forecast an uptick in net-interest margin by 25 bps to 7.65 percent.
In H1-17, Zenith Bank made a 30 percent provision on its exposure to 9 Mobile (formerly Etisalat Nigeria) which resulted in a surge in credit loss provision (COR rose to 3.6 percent, from 1.3 percent in Q1-17 and H1-16) to N42.40 billion. Though we acknowledge the fact that a haircut is eminent on the syndicated exposure to 9Mobile, it is our understanding that most of the provisions booked in H1-17 by Zenith Bank was on its bilateral loan to the telco and not entirely on its share as a part of the syndicate.
Despite the bank restructuring 11.8 percent of its gross loan in H1-17(with oil & gas exposure representing 10.1 percent of the restructured exposure) as well as declassified some power exposure (down to 1.0 percent from 43.0 percent in FY-16), NPL still rose to 4.3 percent (N99.19 billion) from 3.0 percent (N71.37 billion) in FY-16, as the bank classified 37.6 percent (vs. 1.5 percent in FY-16) and 27.4 percent (vs. 18.5 percent in FY-16) of its transportation and general commerce exposure as NPL.
Overall, for 2017F, we estimate Zenith Bank’s NPL to increase to 4.50 percent, from 3.00 percent in FY-16 and 4.30 percent in H1-17, and cost of risks to rise to 2.68 percent, translating to a credit loss provision of N77.13 billion in 2017F.
We estimate opex to rise 29.63 percent y/y to N226.24 billion in 2017F (driven largely by higher regulatory levies on operating expenses) – translating to a 415 bps y/y expansion in CIR to 56.84 percent and growth in operational leverage to 4.5x (from 4.0x in FY-16).
Accordingly, we expect the impact of the increase in opex to limit the trickling down effect of the rise in gross earnings – we estimate PBT and PAT to rise 9.61 percent and 8.28 percent to N171.81 billion and N140.38 billion, respectively.
While acknowledging the impressive performance across income lines in H1-17, which resulted in an upward revision in earnings for the year, we believe the revaluation-bloated growth in NIR will taper in 2018, and factoring in the impact of the adoption of IFRS 9 from 2018 (with management guiding to a 20 percent impact on credit loss provision and 1 percent drop in CAR), we now expect PAT to grow lower than previously estimated over 2018F-2019F.
Hence, we revise our target price on the stock downward to N27.18 (Previous: N30.63), translating to 13.26 percent upside from current price of 24.00 (as at 21/08/2017).
Zenith Bank is currently trading at 2017F P/BVPS of 1.0x (above peer average of 0.9x and below the 5-year average of 1.1x) and P/E of 5.6x (above peer average of 5.2x and below the 5-year average of 5.9x). HOLD.
Banking
VAT on USSD, Mobile Transfer Fees Not Introduced by Nigeria Tax Act—NRS
By Modupe Gbadeyanka
The Nigeria Revenue Service (NRS) has denied reports that customers performing financial transactions would pay a Value Added Tax (VAT) of 7.5 per cent from January 19, 2026.
Information about this emanated from messages sent out to customers of a financial institution, informing them of the new development in compliance of Nigeria’s new tax laws, especially the Nigeria Tax Act 2025.
It was claimed that Nigerians, as part of efforts of the government to generate more funds from taxes, would begin to pay VAT for the use of banking services like USSD and others.
But reacting in a statement signed by its management on Thursday, January 15, 2026, the tax collecting agency emphasised that the VAT collection for such services was not new.
It stressed that customers have always paid taxes for electronic money transfers and others, as this is charged on the fee, not from the main amount of the transaction.
“The Nigeria Revenue Service wishes to address and correct misleading narratives circulating in sections of the media suggesting that Value Added Tax (VAT has been newly introduced on banking services, fees, commissions, or electronic money transfers. This claim is categorically incorrect.
“VAT has always applied to fees, commissions, and charges for services rendered by banks and other financial institutions under Nigeria’s long-established VAT regime. The Nigeria Tax Act did not introduce VAT on banking charges, nor (sic) did it impose new tax obligation on customers in this regard.
“The Nigeria Revenue Service urges members of the public and all stakeholders to disregard misinformation and to rely exclusively on official communications for accurate, authoritative, and up-to-date tax information,” the statement read.
Business Post reports that what this basically means is that if a customer sends N10,000 and the bank charges N50 for the service, a 7.5 per cent VAT on the N50, which is N3.75, would be paid by the sender, not N750, which is 7.5 per cent of N10,000.

Banking
Paystack Enters Banking Space With Ladder Microfinance Bank Acquisition
By Adedapo Adesanya
Nigerian-born payments company, Paystack, has announced its entry into the banking sector with the launch of Paystack Microfinance Bank (Paystack MFB) after the acquisition of Ladder Microfinance Bank.
The bank continues Paystack’s push into consumer products and adds a banking layer to its business-focused payment product, coming ten years after the company was founded with the goal of simplifying payments for businesses using modern technology.
In Nigeria alone, the company says its systems process trillions of Naira every month, supporting more than 300,000 businesses and millions of customers. According to Paystack, this growth highlighted a broader need beyond payments, prompting the decision to build a more comprehensive financial offering.
Paystack MFB will begin lending to businesses before expanding to consumers. It will also offer banking-as-a-service (BaaS) products to companies building financial products and treasury management products.
The company explained that while payments are a critical part of the financial journey, businesses and individuals increasingly require a full financial operating system. This includes the ability to store money securely, move funds easily, gain clarity from financial data, and access tools that support long-term growth. Developers, Paystack added, also need reliable, secure, and compliant infrastructure to build new financial solutions efficiently.
To address these needs, Paystack said it has established Paystack Microfinance Bank as a separate and independent entity from Paystack Payments Limited.
The new microfinance bank operates with its own license, governance structure, and product roadmap, although it will work closely with its sister company.
“By adding Paystack MFB to our family of brands, we’re finding the right balance through combining the rapid innovation of a tech-first platform with the stability of traditional banking,” said Ms Amandine Lobelle, Paystack’s chief operating officer.
Last year, it launched its controversial consumer payments app Zap, and now it is taking a step further with the company securing regulatory backing to become a deposit-taking institution. According to a statement, the bank will be guided by the same principles that shaped Paystack’s early success, including reliability, simplicity, transparency, and trust.
Paystack MFB has begun operations with a small group of early members and plans a gradual rollout to more businesses and individuals. The company also announced the opening of a waitlist for interested users and confirmed it is recruiting a dedicated team to help build its long-term banking infrastructure.
Banking
N1.3bn Transfer Error: EFCC Recovers N802.4m from Customer for First Bank
By Modupe Gbadeyanka
The Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) has helped First Bank of Nigeria to recover the sum of N802.4 million from a suspect, Mr Kingsley Eghosa Ojo, who unlawfully took possession of over N1.3 billion belonging to the bank.
The funds were handed over the financial institution by the Benin Zonal Directorate of the anti-money laundering agency on Monday, January 12, 2026, a statement on Tuesday confirmed.
First Bank approached the EFCC for the recovery of the money through a petition, claiming that the suspect received the money into his account after system glitches.
The commission in its investigation; discovered that the suspect, upon the receipt of the money, transferred a good measure of it to the bank accounts of his mother, Mrs Itohan Ojo and that of his sister, Ms Edith Okoro Osaretin, and committed part of the money to completion of his building project and the funding of a new flamboyant lifestyle.
With the recovery of the money from the identified bank accounts, the EFCC handed it over in drafts to First Bank.
While handing over the lender, the acting Director for the Directorate, Mr Sa’ad Hanafi Sa’ad, stressed his organisation would continue to discharge its mandate effectively in the overall interests of society.
“The EFCC Establishment Act empowers us to trace and recover proceeds of crime and restitute the victim. In this case, First Bank was the victim and that is exactly what we have done.
“We will continue to discharge our duties to ensure that fraudsters do not benefit from fraud and that economic and financial crimes are nipped in the bud,” he said.
In his response, the Business Manager for First Bank in Benin City, Mr Olalere Sunday Ajayi, who received the drafts on behalf of the bank, commended the EFCC for the swiftness and the professionalism it brought to bear in the handling of the matter and expressed the bank’s gratitude to the commission.
He described the EFCC as one of Nigeria’s most effective and reliable institutions.
Meanwhile, Mr Kingsley and all other suspects in the matter have been charged to court for stealing by the EFCC.
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