Economy
AfDB Forecasts 4.1% GDP Growth for Nigeria, Others in 2023
By Adedapo Adesanya
The African Development Bank (AfDB) says Nigeria and other economies of Africa are projected to grow by 4.1 per cent in 2023 and 4.3 per cent in 2024.
This was announced by the President of the regional lender, Mr Akinwumi Adesina, while inaugurating the African Economic Outlook (AEO) 2023 at the ongoing 2023 AfDB Annual Meetings in Sharm El Sheikh, Egypt.
According to him, the economies on the continent have shown remarkable resilience in spite of the multiple and dynamic shocks it faces.
“These multiple and dynamic shocks have weighed on Africa’s growth momentum, with growth in real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) estimated at 3.8 per cent in 2022.
“This is down from 4.8 per cent in 2021. The GDP growth in 2022 is above the global average of 3.4 per cent.
“Africa has also shown remarkable resilience, evident in the projected consolidation of economic growth in the medium term.
“The outlook remains positive and stable, with a projected rebound to four per cent in 2023 and further consolidation to 4.3 per cent in 2024,” he said.
The AfDB boss attributed the slowed growth on the continent to the tightening global financial conditions and supply chain disruptions exacerbated by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which subdued global growth.
He said growth was also impaired by the residual effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and the growing impact of climate change and extreme weather events.
Mr Adesina said Africa had a great potential to pursue green growth and climate objectives to accelerate economic growth, given its enormous advantages.
He said the continent had some of the world’s fastest-growing economies, and its real GDP growth was projected to surpass the global average from 2023 to 2024, even as headwinds persist.
He further said the continent also had an important human capital base, with its population projected to increase to 2.4 billion by 2050.
“As most of the current population is young, compared with other regions’ ageing populations, Africa is the current and future frontier market in green growth opportunities. Africa hosts 25 per cent of the world’s natural biodiversity and 30 per cent of the world’s mineral resources, most of which will be essential for a green transition.
“Africa has a large “renewable energy potential, including wind, solar, hydropower, and geothermal and the world’s highest solar energy potential. Countries in the continent also have the greatest potential for investments in green infrastructure and technology,” he noted.
The AfDB president also said this was due to their low levels of development, low legacy high-emissions infrastructure, and low frequency of infrastructure and project finance default rates, estimated at 5.5 per cent.
On his part, the AfDB Vice President for Economic Governance and Knowledge, Mr Kelvin Urama, said currency stability remained an issue noting that countries with appreciating currencies include Angola (27.1 per cent), Seychelles (15.6 per cent), and Zambia (15.3 per cent).
Mr Urama said depreciation rates could ease in 2023 and 2024, but continued strengthening of the U.S. dollar would keep African currencies under pressure.
He said currency weaknesses in some of Africa’s more globally integrated economies (Kenya, Nigeria, and South Africa) are expected to persist in 2023.
“This is largely due to potential capital outflows as investors search for safe assets in advanced economies.’’
“Public debt is projected to remain high, with lingering vulnerabilities. However, the median public debt in Africa is estimated to have declined to 65 per cent of GDP in 2022 from 68 per cent in 2021.
“Thanks to debt relief initiatives in some countries, it will remain above the pre-pandemic level of 61 per cent of GDP.
The economist said this debt-GDP ratio was expected to increase to 66 per cent in 2023 and then stabilise at around 65 per cent in 2024.
He said this was due to growing financing needs associated with rising food and energy import bills, high debt service costs due to interest rate hikes, exchange rate depreciations, and rollover risks.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Nigeria Customs Service (NCS) is seeking a reduction in import duty exemptions, which rose to N34 trillion, limiting its ability to increase its revenue generation threshold.
The Comptroller-General of the Customs Service, Mr Adewale Adeniyi, disclosed that the value of import duty exemption certificate approvals increased to that level in 2025, describing the policy as one of the major factors restricting its revenue generation.
At an investigative session of the Senate Committee on Finance with revenue-generating agencies in Abuja on Monday, Mr Adeniyi explained that government fiscal policies have continued to impact the revenue-generating capacity of the Customs Service, both positively and negatively.
“The NCS would have generated significantly higher revenue over the years if not for government-approved import duty waivers and other external factors affecting collections,” he said.
He added that the Import Duty Exemption Certificate scheme, introduced in March 2020, accounted for about N34 trillion in approvals in 2025, with nearly 60 per cent covering duty-free importation of military hardware due to Nigeria’s prevailing security challenges.
Other government-backed duty waivers, he noted, covered the importation of Compressed Natural Gas (CNG), electric and hybrid vehicles, healthcare equipment and medical supplies, industrial machinery and manufacturing inputs, as well as food import intervention programmes.
While acknowledging the impact of the waivers on Customs revenue, Mr Adeniyi argued that fiscal policy should not be assessed solely on the basis of revenue generation but also on its broader economic and social objectives.
He, however, urged the federal government to establish stronger monitoring mechanisms to ensure beneficiaries of duty waivers deliver the intended economic outcomes, including lower consumer prices, increased local production and improved healthcare access.
The committee also expressed displeasure over the absence of several heads of government agencies invited to the hearing, including the Nigerian Civil Aviation Authority (NCAA), Small and Medium Enterprises Development Agency of Nigeria (SMEDAN), Industrial Training Fund (ITF), and the Federal Medical Centre (FMC), Jabi.
The Chairman of the Senate Committee on Finance, Mr Sani Musa, warned that the affected chief executives must appear at the committee’s next sitting or face severe sanctions under the Senate’s rules.
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By Adedapo Adesanya
The NASD Over-the-Counter (OTC) Securities Exchange rose by 0.40 per cent on Monday, July 13, buoyed by buying interest in 11 Plc, Central Securities Clearing System (CSCS) Plc and UBN Property Plc, which offset the profit-taking in Food Concepts Plc, the parent company of Chicken Republic.
11 Plc gained N20.69 to end at N227.64 per share compared with last Friday’s price of N206.95 per share, CSCS Plc grew by N1.83 to N91.48 per unit from N89.65 per unit, and UBN Property Plc added 1 Kobo to sell at N1.81 per share versus N1.80 per share.
On the flip side, Food Concepts Plc depreciated by 24 Kobo to close at N2.45 per unit, in contrast to the preceding session’s N2.69 per unit.
As a result, the market capitalisation increased by N9.2 billion to N2.587 trillion from N2.578 trillion, and the NASD Security Index (NSI) improved by 15.33 points to 4,311.67 points from 4,296.34 points.
Yesterday, the volume of securities traded by investors surged by 615.9 per cent to 9.1 million units from the previous 1.3 million units, and the value of securities rose by 997.1 per cent to N320.4 million from the preceding session’s N29.2 million, while the number of deals decreased by 12.5 per cent to 28 deals from last Friday’s 32 deals.
At the close of trades, Great Nigeria Insurance (GNI) Plc remained the most active stock by value on a year-to-date basis, with 3.4 billion units valued at N8.4 billion, followed by Infrastructure Credit Guarantee (Infracredit) Plc with 2.3 billion units worth N6.5 billion, and CSCS Plc with 73.9 million units exchanged for N5.2 billion.
GNI Plc also closed the session as the most traded stock by volume on a year-to-date basis, with 3.4 billion units sold for N8.4 billion, followed by Infracredit Plc with 2.3 billion units traded for N6.5 billion, and Resourcery Plc with 1.1 billion units transacted for N415.7 million.
