Economy
AfDB Forecasts 4.1% GDP Growth for Nigeria, Others in 2023
By Adedapo Adesanya
The African Development Bank (AfDB) says Nigeria and other economies of Africa are projected to grow by 4.1 per cent in 2023 and 4.3 per cent in 2024.
This was announced by the President of the regional lender, Mr Akinwumi Adesina, while inaugurating the African Economic Outlook (AEO) 2023 at the ongoing 2023 AfDB Annual Meetings in Sharm El Sheikh, Egypt.
According to him, the economies on the continent have shown remarkable resilience in spite of the multiple and dynamic shocks it faces.
“These multiple and dynamic shocks have weighed on Africa’s growth momentum, with growth in real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) estimated at 3.8 per cent in 2022.
“This is down from 4.8 per cent in 2021. The GDP growth in 2022 is above the global average of 3.4 per cent.
“Africa has also shown remarkable resilience, evident in the projected consolidation of economic growth in the medium term.
“The outlook remains positive and stable, with a projected rebound to four per cent in 2023 and further consolidation to 4.3 per cent in 2024,” he said.
The AfDB boss attributed the slowed growth on the continent to the tightening global financial conditions and supply chain disruptions exacerbated by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which subdued global growth.
He said growth was also impaired by the residual effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and the growing impact of climate change and extreme weather events.
Mr Adesina said Africa had a great potential to pursue green growth and climate objectives to accelerate economic growth, given its enormous advantages.
He said the continent had some of the world’s fastest-growing economies, and its real GDP growth was projected to surpass the global average from 2023 to 2024, even as headwinds persist.
He further said the continent also had an important human capital base, with its population projected to increase to 2.4 billion by 2050.
“As most of the current population is young, compared with other regions’ ageing populations, Africa is the current and future frontier market in green growth opportunities. Africa hosts 25 per cent of the world’s natural biodiversity and 30 per cent of the world’s mineral resources, most of which will be essential for a green transition.
“Africa has a large “renewable energy potential, including wind, solar, hydropower, and geothermal and the world’s highest solar energy potential. Countries in the continent also have the greatest potential for investments in green infrastructure and technology,” he noted.
The AfDB president also said this was due to their low levels of development, low legacy high-emissions infrastructure, and low frequency of infrastructure and project finance default rates, estimated at 5.5 per cent.
On his part, the AfDB Vice President for Economic Governance and Knowledge, Mr Kelvin Urama, said currency stability remained an issue noting that countries with appreciating currencies include Angola (27.1 per cent), Seychelles (15.6 per cent), and Zambia (15.3 per cent).
Mr Urama said depreciation rates could ease in 2023 and 2024, but continued strengthening of the U.S. dollar would keep African currencies under pressure.
He said currency weaknesses in some of Africa’s more globally integrated economies (Kenya, Nigeria, and South Africa) are expected to persist in 2023.
“This is largely due to potential capital outflows as investors search for safe assets in advanced economies.’’
“Public debt is projected to remain high, with lingering vulnerabilities. However, the median public debt in Africa is estimated to have declined to 65 per cent of GDP in 2022 from 68 per cent in 2021.
“Thanks to debt relief initiatives in some countries, it will remain above the pre-pandemic level of 61 per cent of GDP.
The economist said this debt-GDP ratio was expected to increase to 66 per cent in 2023 and then stabilise at around 65 per cent in 2024.
He said this was due to growing financing needs associated with rising food and energy import bills, high debt service costs due to interest rate hikes, exchange rate depreciations, and rollover risks.
By Dipo Olowookere
Bearish investor sentiment on Monday could not keep the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited in the red territory, as the bourse closed higher by 0.18 per cent.
According to data from Customs Street, there were 25 price gainers and 38 price losers, indicating a negative market breadth index.
Eterna expanded by 10.00 per cent to quote at N36.30, Caverton also improved by 10.00 per cent to N5.50, Omatek soared by 9.88 per cent to trade at N1.78, AVA Capital grew by 9.70 per cent to N9.05, and Vitafoam Nigeria appreciated by 7.90 per cent to N194.00.
Conversely, Ecobank declined by 9.95 per cent to N80.10, Cadbury Nigeria went down by 9.92 per cent to N58.10, Thomas Wyatt slumped by 9.82 per cent to N3.95, Coronation Insurance depreciated by 9.80 per cent to N2.30, and CMFC dipped by 9.79 per cent to N3.50.
Yesterday, market participants transacted 923.0 million stocks for N37.9 billion in 72,544 deals compared with the 943.0 million stocks worth N46.7 billion traded in 55,480 deals last Friday.
This indicated that the number of deals increased by 30.76 per cent, the trading volume shrank by 2.12 per cent, and the trading value dropped 18.84 per cent.
Access Holdings was the most active equity on the first trading day of this week and month, with a turnover of 166.6 million units worth N4.4 billion. Honeywell Flour sold 93.6 million units for N1.6 billion, Sterling Holdco exchanged 57.1 million units valued at N455.4 million, Universal Insurance traded 51.8 million units worth N45.8 million, and Chams transacted 33.8 million units valued at N152.5 million.
But when trading activities ended for the session, the All-Share Index (ASI) went up by 446.85 points to 245,730.53 points from 245,283.68 points, and the market capitalisation jumped by N289 billion to N158.615 trillion from N158.326 trillion.
By Adedapo Adesanya
Crude oil declined by about 7 per cent on Monday after US President Donald Trump held off on a fresh attack on Iran in the hope of sealing a quick deal that could boost oil supplies from the Gulf.
Brent futures fell by $6.35 or 7.0 per cent to settle at $83.77 a barrel, while the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude depreciated by $4.33 or 5.1 per cent to trade at $80.34 per barrel.
Over the weekend, President Trump repeated a pattern that has emerged throughout the past five months: announcing plans for “massive attacks” on Iran, only to cancel them at the last minute.
The US President on Monday said talks with Iran “are going on right now”, adding that Iran faced “decapitation” if Tehran did not agree to a pact to end the conflict.
However, Iran said there were no talks underway with the US and no plans for any meetings, contradicting the American leader who had cited talks he said would take place that afternoon as justification for calling off attacks.
Iran’s Foreign Ministry said it also had no plans to host foreign delegations or send negotiators abroad in the coming days.
Despite this, the renewed hopes for diplomacy in the US-Iran conflict eased some concerns.
Six Saudi-flagged supertankers have changed course in the Gulf of Aden in recent days and are heading to southern Africa following threats by the Iran-backed Houthi movement in Yemen to target Saudi shipping.
However, over the weekend, two tankers laden with Saudi oil crossed the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden, while traffic in the Strait of Hormuz between Iran and Oman slowed following reports of vessel attacks.
Russia said on Monday it was stepping up protection of ships in the Azov-Black Sea basin while also developing alternative cargo routes, in a move that follows a sharp escalation of attacks at sea by both sides in the war in Ukraine.
The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC) approved an oil production quota increase on Sunday of around 188,000 barrels per day from September.
This means Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan and Oman have finished the phased rollback of a 1.65 million barrels per day supply cut originally agreed in 2023, when the group still included the United Arab Emirates (UAE).
Due to export disruptions from the Gulf, Russia and Kazakhstan caused by the Iran and Ukraine wars, successive monthly OPEC+ hikes over most of this year have remained largely on paper with little impact on the market.
By Aduragbemi Omiyale
The Stanbic IBTC Bank Nigeria Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for the Nigerian private sector in July 2026 contracted to 52.5 points from 53.4 points in June 2026, a statement made available to Business Post has shown.
This occurred despite the business environment sustaining its growth last month, with an increase in new orders experienced, as inflationary pressures softened, and output and employment modestly rising.
The Head of Equity Research West Africa at Stanbic IBTC Bank, Mr Muyiwa Oni, said the PMI indicated that the private sector recorded its slowest since March 2026, as businesses also increased their input purchasing activity to keep up with current demand requirements and prepare for future workloads.
“Nigerian businesses reported improved customer demand in July while better pricing and new product launches also helped them to capture new orders arising from the increase in demand. These factors helped to keep the private sector activity in an expansionary territory, although this moderated when compared to June,” he was quoted as saying.
It was stated that while input costs increased at their slowest pace in five months, panellists reported higher costs for fuel and raw materials. Selling prices also softened in line with the picture for input costs in July.
Headline inflation eased slightly to 15.91 per cent y/y in June from 15.93 per cent y/y in May, snapping three consecutive months of price increases.
Although July inflation is likely to be higher m/m, it is expected to print lower, likely at 15.72 per cent y/y, primarily driven by favourable base effects from the corresponding period of last year, because there are no expectations of the magnitude of m/m inflation witnessed in July 2025 (1.99 per cent) to materialise this year.
“We retain our 2026 growth forecasts at 4.1 per cent as we see the oil sector growing by 3.45 per cent y/y in 2026, from 8.50 per cent y/y in 2025, while the non-oil sector is likely to grow by 4.11 per cent y/y, from 3.71 per cent y/y in 2025.
“The risks to our outlook include country-wide insecurity which may constrain food production, exchange rate pressures resurfacing, extreme-weather related conditions and higher fertiliser prices impacting crop yield, and a volatile global environment which may affect sentiment and constrain capital flows,” Mr Oni noted.
